The apparent success of Blu-Ray and what it means for future consoles
- Thread starter Golden Darkness
- Start date
This thread title is a misnomer. Blu-ray has not succeeded. All that's true is that HD-DVD has failed. The high definition video market is still miniscule compared to DVD and that doesn't appear to be changing any time soon. So this means very little for the future of consoles. DVD is obviously becoming increasingly undesirable with its limited storage. But blu-ray isn't exactly the dream replacement with its somewhat limited transfer rate.
Blu-Ray is going to take forever to gain serious ground on DVD. Years and years. DVDs are cheaper, have basically the same features, and look "good enough" to most people.
Blu-Rays will probably be the standard format of the NEXTBOX and PS4, and the next Nintendo system might have a slightly stripped down version. I'd find it hilarious if Nintendo bought up the rights to HD-DVD and used it as its next format. Can't copy what you can't get your hands on anymore!
Blu-Rays will probably be the standard format of the NEXTBOX and PS4, and the next Nintendo system might have a slightly stripped down version. I'd find it hilarious if Nintendo bought up the rights to HD-DVD and used it as its next format. Can't copy what you can't get your hands on anymore!
Kittonwy said:HD-DVD lost because it was getting its ass handed to it by Blu-Ray week-in and week-out even despite Toshiba doing a price drop, it's called a TKO.
Yes... Blu-ray movie sales beat HD DVD for 54 weeks straight (The entire 2007 and then some) by a factor of 1.x - 2.x usually. In overseas market, Blu-ray's winning ratio is higher (e.g., In Japan, it was like 9 : 1).
In December 2007, standalone Blu-ray players also outsold HD DVD players (i.e., not counting PS3).
Dire said:
How high a transfer rate do you think is sufficient for a 1080p movie ?
Well, when more people get HDTVs they may start wondering why their DVDs look like shit, or they won't realize it until they see something hi-def. The HDTV penetration is already well over 30% right?Man God said:
And Nintendo using HD-DVD is a funny idea, but I doubt they would pay a premium for discs since no one else in the world would be buying it from the replication plants (which would be making DVDs and BD only).
Dire said:
Yeah and HDTV penetration is still low. This was a war for what people will be watching movies on 3-5 years from now. Sorry for derailing the thread, but the format war had very little to do with video games...HD video game consoles will be at the mercy of whatever the Hi Def movie format is (Blu Ray) for at least ten years.
YYZ said:
With all that money Nintendo will be raking in they could just buy a couple of replication plants. The cost would be a drop in the bucket of that money vault they have. A premium for the discs would be well worth it if it stopped the average person from pirating games. They might come out a head because I am sure they could get the license from Toshiba for 1/3 of what they would have to pay the BDA.
Kittonwy said:That's more than 10 years away, and that's assuming that game consoles would go download-only.
Not even that first we need the fucking internet bandwidth to go way the hell up. 10 years from now I can see DD happening but yeah first 2 things need to be resolved by then.
1. HDD space or what ever storage medium they want to use. It has to be big enough so that with in 5 years of purchasing it, it won't become useless. Or at least a way to upgrade it in an inexpensive and easy way.
2. Bandwidth speed over the DSL/ Cable need to go WAY AND I MEAN WAY the fuck up. Right now what the cheapest solution is what DSL 3mbps at 25 dollars from cable companies. 6mbps is available in some areas costing 35 dollars a month. Now here is the deal downloading 1gig of data on 3mbps takes what 1hr if the speed is constant and what not. Shit right now is getting to the point where games are 10 gigs plus and movies higher as well 20gigs if it's on blueray. Just think about it in just a few years we will hit the 50gig sealing and speed will probably get better. In order to make DD feasible we need bandwidth speeds at a minimum of 100mbps to start of and it has to be cheap. We would probably need faster speeds as well in order for shit to be more streamlined.
In conclusion DD ain't taking off unless Bandwidth speed go up are cheap for normal consumers to afford and Need more space to store things with out having to Worry about shit.
The Dream will not happen at a super profitable rate unless that shit happens.
Nuclear Muffin
Banned
Also isn't Panasonic part of the HDDVD consortium? If so that's even more reason for Nintendo to go for HDDVD, to continue with their Panasonic partnership!
BenjaminBirdie
Banned
kaching said:
Which brings us to that "major advance" I was talking about that Blu-Ray needs. While image quality is negligible, it takes full advantage of DVD's ability to transmit 16:9 anamorphic video, which most car screens now display and, say, VHS would not.
HomerSimpson-Man
Member
Nuclear Muffin said:
Blu-ray.
Semantic Continuum
Member
No offense to anyone else here but...in my time as a lurker and now a poster, I wouldn't so much as want anyone who holds me in high regard to know that I was a reader of this forum, let alone my boss or colleagues at WORK! :lolJonnyram said:
What I'm saying is that you probably should just stick to the more professional digital establishments of the int0rn3tz while at work.
HomerSimpson-Man
Member
n1n9tean said:
Or turn off images like I do.
Semantic Continuum said:
That actually kept piracy down for a good amount of time before people flipped off the top or decided to buy Mini-DVD's.
Anything you can do to stymie their efforts is a good thing. MS came up with the terribly useful idea of making online a decent component in their games and banning any box that comes up as modded.
Neo C. said:
Cheap ? How could it be cheap when no one is manufacturing HD DVD discs anymore ? BluRay will be the cheap solution : BR medias will cost nothing to manufacture in no time.
No, Nintendo will probably rely on DVD once again. Cheapest solution and more than enough for games between Gamecube and Xbox 360 (those who think Nintendo next-gen system will be at least at the level of the PS3 don't understand nothing at Nintendo new strategy).
bluheim said:
My 2 year old PC is "at the level" of the PS3, but simply put: you have no idea what their "next strategy" will be. They may indeed release their "NOD" (i.e. invest in a custom solution) for a system that's in between the 360/PS3 and the 720/PS4, or they might just pick a mainstream for the third time in a row (DVD tech twice, and HD-disc tech next). Or they might go entirely DD. Hell, they might go N64 on us, and beat the power of its competitors and go flash-media, as unlikely as that is. Nobody "knows" Nintendo's new strategy - all it involves is releasing consoles for <$250, with whatever the masses want. They're not going to overshoot the console mass market like MS & Sony did this round.
If what that mass market wants happens to be Bluray in 2010, then it will have it. (PS I wish their names were opposite, BluRay is a stupid name, HD-DVD just makes more sense). You know the Gamecube was more powerful than the PS2, right?
FrozenCell
Member
both Wii 2 & Xbox 3 should use HD DVD for games while also playing back movies in both formats - if HD DVD is otherwise out of production by that time then pirates can't replicate gamediscs :O
I thought about license fee. Toshiba won't ask too much for it.bluheim said:
In the end, it depends a lot on Nintendo's business men to find a partner with the lowest license fee and acceptable production costs. They have a few options, so they surely will find a good solution.
StevieP said:
Yes, and my 8 years old PC is at the level of the Wii, and that didn't prevent Nintendo from designing the Wii.
You know that Nintendo has changed their strategy since the 128 bits era ? Worse : their strategy is a huge success ! A sub-powerful system, sold with huge margins, why would they change anything ? They have never been so successful since the NES days.
MaX_PL said:
DVD looks acceptable and that's all you can say for it. The problem is not just having a high definition set but the sheer size of the HD sets. 37" was massive for CRT but it's piddling for LCD or Plasma. Higher resolution and larger screens exacerbate the issue.
Anyway I think that most people who like DVDs and have an HD set will pick up a Blu Ray player in the next 3 years. There is no downside to doing it - your DVDs still play (and look better thanks to upscaling), the player supports HD content too. Even the price of players is sinking. I reckon we'll have sub $200 players by Christmas this year - Chinese no-names but a sign of things to come. And there will be plenty of sub $300 players. I doubt the price will be a major concern over the long term.
Bluheim: Nintendo knew the mass market (i.e. the same people that sold over 100m PS2s - the hardcore are generally accepted to be <20 million in #s, far less if you counted how many copies Okami sold). It's as simple as that. If they continue to stay in tune with the market, they will give them what they want. Nothing more and nothing less. They're not some sort of oafs stuck in the year 2000 in technology. They just chose the correct path of the mass market. No self-respecting hardcore gamer would contest that the Wii is underpowered. But we're not talking about us (the clear minority). We're talking about the majority of society, who are watching stretched 480i analog cable on their massive 1080p sets, and get a kick out of stretching ridiculously compressed youtube videos on their 24" LCDs. The people who made the PS2 and are making the Wii a success. If Nintendo is smart, they will continue to follow their needs. And whether that means a PS3.5 or a PS4.5level of juice, someone will deliver to this mass market again next gen.
Box art? Really? I don't really care about the box art/manual stuff for any of the systems I own, including the PC. I only really cared when effort was put into it... like back in the NES days. Now, most of the time they're throwaway. Sure, Nintendo puts more effort than most, but enh. What drives Nintendo most in their optical solutions is piracy. Mini-DVDs with encryption = GC, DL DVDs with encryption = Wii, ????(market needs+protection?) = Wii 2.
Box art? Really? I don't really care about the box art/manual stuff for any of the systems I own, including the PC. I only really cared when effort was put into it... like back in the NES days. Now, most of the time they're throwaway. Sure, Nintendo puts more effort than most, but enh. What drives Nintendo most in their optical solutions is piracy. Mini-DVDs with encryption = GC, DL DVDs with encryption = Wii, ????(market needs+protection?) = Wii 2.
I cannot see Nintendo going Bluray. It's too logical. I think it'll be a custom BDROM-style chimera format. Those guys love to roll their own stuff... and they hate paying royalties.
Digital downloads? Unlikely IMHO, unless they distribute download stations to retailers and come up with a mobile storage solution - they did that at the end of the SNES' lifetime in Japan, and the DS download stations could be construed as a first step in the right direction. So if you're really optimistic they have some semblance of knowledge in that area, but I severely doubt it nonetheless. Retail is gonna go batshit on their asses, downloadstations or not. Furthermore the unwashed masses don't understand the concept and will probably reject the lack of physical media...
But then again, it's fucking Nintendo, they always manage to throw a wrench between my legs. They do whatever they want to do. With my luck they'll cut the cases down to a 1/2 DS package and include a tiny flash card with a encrypted one-time key and installer for their uberWii with 1TB solid state memory and powered by 4 cells and 16GB 1T-SRAM just to spite me.
Digital downloads? Unlikely IMHO, unless they distribute download stations to retailers and come up with a mobile storage solution - they did that at the end of the SNES' lifetime in Japan, and the DS download stations could be construed as a first step in the right direction. So if you're really optimistic they have some semblance of knowledge in that area, but I severely doubt it nonetheless. Retail is gonna go batshit on their asses, downloadstations or not. Furthermore the unwashed masses don't understand the concept and will probably reject the lack of physical media...
But then again, it's fucking Nintendo, they always manage to throw a wrench between my legs. They do whatever they want to do. With my luck they'll cut the cases down to a 1/2 DS package and include a tiny flash card with a encrypted one-time key and installer for their uberWii with 1TB solid state memory and powered by 4 cells and 16GB 1T-SRAM just to spite me.
Never gonna happen
domokunrox
Banned
Nintendo to use Mini BR disc's, confirmed. :lol
Choke on the Magic
Banned
I would expect Bluray to be the format across the board next gen. The real question is when will PC make games on it?
Whilst I think digital downloads may eventually be popular, it will never be as popular as a physical storage medium for a few reasons.......
1. Whilst a few of my friends and family members may be able to get their heads around the interwebs, you tell the rest of them that instead of sticking a disc in and pressing play they have to set up and configure routers and home networking and all you will see is blank expressions and red faces.
2. ISPS and phone companies are already struggling to satisfy current bandwidth demands under creaky 50-60 year old phone infrastructures and overloaded servers. Somebody is going to have to pay for the MASSIVE additional amounts of bandwidth requirements if digital downloading gets to be as popular as DVD. How many punters are running download capped broadband packages, and how can that cap be suddenly be lifted?
As far as I'm aware there is only one country running a non-contended fully optical BB service, and in order for this to work it will need to be worldwide.
I'm not convinced.
1. Whilst a few of my friends and family members may be able to get their heads around the interwebs, you tell the rest of them that instead of sticking a disc in and pressing play they have to set up and configure routers and home networking and all you will see is blank expressions and red faces.
2. ISPS and phone companies are already struggling to satisfy current bandwidth demands under creaky 50-60 year old phone infrastructures and overloaded servers. Somebody is going to have to pay for the MASSIVE additional amounts of bandwidth requirements if digital downloading gets to be as popular as DVD. How many punters are running download capped broadband packages, and how can that cap be suddenly be lifted?
As far as I'm aware there is only one country running a non-contended fully optical BB service, and in order for this to work it will need to be worldwide.
I'm not convinced.
NemesisPrime
Banned
Solid state memory might indeed make a comeback next gen. It is getting cheapo. back to cartridges and no loading! The circle is complete.
I thought I'd address this since nobody else had done so. Why would MS only want to sell the console (the same console they probably lose money from) and not want anyone to buy official games (the same games they get licensing money i.e. profits from)? That's like saying stores have huge offers just to sell the stuff they advertise dirt cheap. You sell the console cheap so people buy games so you get some money back. If enough people buy games, you make profit. Piracy kills profit. I'm assuming no-one wants to see an $800 console next-gen?MaX_PL said:
BishopLamont
Banned
Nintendo will use the one that makes them the most money. Fin.
Ynos Yrros
Banned
This thread is a source of many laughs to me. As someone who works in a large electronics store I can't help but giggle when I read comments of people who are on the quest to downplay HD media.
Whenever we sell a stand alone HDTV we get the customer back in max 1 week ordering HDTV broadcast and asking for HD movie players. People complain about TV quality as soon as they see the stretched image from cable source. I'm talking about 40+ yo people who have no basic knowledge of electronics, they just know that the image is supposed to be much more detailed and much clearer.
But hey, continue your quest, HD media is irrelevant, DVD forever and all that lulz.
Whenever we sell a stand alone HDTV we get the customer back in max 1 week ordering HDTV broadcast and asking for HD movie players. People complain about TV quality as soon as they see the stretched image from cable source. I'm talking about 40+ yo people who have no basic knowledge of electronics, they just know that the image is supposed to be much more detailed and much clearer.
But hey, continue your quest, HD media is irrelevant, DVD forever and all that lulz.
Ynos Yrros said:
Whoever you're talking about that's coming back and complaining: they are in the vast minority. There have been studies done (which were posted here months ago) to prove that most regular schmoes watch stretched SD content on their large TVs. Even in Japan, where they are ahead on the tech curve.
Ynos Yrros
Banned
Actually most people who buy HDTVs at our department make use of them with HD broadcasting and/or HD media players. We advertise HD content to every new HDTV owner, and have surveys of our own that show how efficient we are in pushing HD era.StevieP said:
The adoption rate sped up significantly and is still accelerating, it got to the point where we almost never sell standard TVs, other than the smaller ones.
But hey, you had a PC that matched PS3 specs 2 years ago, who am I to even say anything.
Go on, it's very entertaining
.Ynos Yrros said:Actually most people who buy HDTVs at our department make use of them with HD broadcasting and/or HD media players. We advertise HD content to every new HDTV owner, and have surveys of our own that show how efficient we are in pushing HD era.
The adoption rate sped up significantly and is still accelerating, it got to the point where we almost never sell standard TVs, other than the smaller ones.
But hey, you had a PC that matched PS3 specs 2 years ago, who am I to even say anything.
Go on, it's very entertaining
Not the PS3's CPU, mind you (a couple years ago at least) - but GPU is what matters most in games, and yes most PC gamers... but, I digress. Your particular store may push HD content to the high heavens, and (NATURALLY) HD adoption will increase in time, much like CD and DVD adoption... but it's a very, VERY long ways away. And no amount of wishing is going to change that. People are buying flatscreens because they're flat, and look nice. Not to watch DiscoveryHD and purchase their favourite films (most of which were recorded in SD) in expensive proprietary formats that are many years away from even being able to lick DVD's nutsack hair.
Mithos Yggdrasill
Banned
fernoca said:
Wow. It could become a third format against Blu-Ray and HD-DVD.:lol