Dragon Age winning would be a VGA disaster.
It will most likely gain a spot in the best RPG nominations, otherwise the whole category would be dominated by JRPGs, they want to show variety in their category even if the game doesn't deserve its spot.
But yeah its 100% not winning, a lot of people are backtracking on the game, even IGN wrote an article talking about its missteps, a lot of unhinged twitter users that championed the game are turning on it now calling it mediocre.
Its definitely not winning like actual zero chance. it will not even get nominated for GOTY.
Last year was a CRPG, maybe this year they could do the same for a JRPG.
It's been a great year for those with many quality releases, so I'd say the genre deserves some attention. Not just that but 3 (three!) of them feature Jack Frost from the SMT series. What else could you ask for?
Thats a solid point and it may become true, but Astro Bot is a platformer and they only awarded that 1 award which is It Takes Two, i think they may want to change from RPG to Platformer, to you its JRPG, to them its all RPG (all the same) so they won't see it as a JRPG win, instead it will be another RPG win.
Whatever wins its definitely between those three, Metaphor, Rebirth and Astro Bot.
The reason i think its Astro Bot is also because of Sony legacy, it has all those reference to its gaming history which can play on the same feeling as Rebirth does with nostalgia.
Metaphor might be too anime for them, i know it has high scores but its more niche, it has less review count than both Rebirth and Astro Bot.
However Metaphor has that multiplatform release so idk, you can say that Rebirth and Astro split votes from Playstation fan sites/outlets and this can help Metaphor secure a W
Its definitely an interesting race though, im sure this year we will not have a 5/5 awards winner like last year, there will be split between them.