Its would go against the way the studio have operated over the last decade or two if they are. We know how they do things or Elder scrolls would have been out by now (They announced it went into full production shortly after Starfield shipped).
If they've changed tack they would have had to hire a shit ton of people, which you normally hear about. ES6 and Fallout aren't exactly small projects. If ES dropps with a year or two then there's very little chance of Fallout coming shortly after. When have they ever done that before?
Yes I'm assuming, but its a fair assumption no?
If Im wrong then great, but I don't think I am.