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WSJ: New Aim for X360 is Profitability

New Xbox Aim For Microsoft: Profitability

By ROBERT A. GUTH
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
May 24, 2005; Page C1

Microsoft Corp.'s Xbox 360 will be a boon for videogame players. Now it is up to Bryan Lee to make Microsoft investors happy with the new game player.

Mr. Lee is the head of finance at Microsoft's Home & Entertainment division, which includes the videogame business. Analysts say since 2000, the unit has recorded at least $4 billion in operating losses, thanks mostly to the first Xbox.

The Xbox 360, unveiled May 12 and scheduled to go on sale late this year, is Mr. Lee's chance to stanch the red ink. It won't be easy. The launch of the new player opened a long and expensive battle with Sony Corp., maker of the PlayStation console, which is the reigning champion. Sony last week announced a new console as well, the PlayStation 3, which will go on sale in the spring of next year.

Mr. Lee, 42 years old, says his goal for the videogame unit is simple. "Sony makes money. No reason we shouldn't make as much," he says.

His mission takes on special importance as growth slows at Microsoft's core Windows and Office franchises. Microsoft's stock price has been flat for four years and remains more than 50% below its bubble-era peak. Microsoft launched the Xbox in 2001 as one of its "long-term bets" to diversify beyond software for personal computers. Since then, it has shipped roughly 20 million Xbox units, less than one-quarter the number of PlayStation 2 consoles Sony has sold.

The game unit reported its first quarterly operating profit in Microsoft's fiscal second quarter ended Dec. 31, boosted by the runaway success of the game Halo 2. In the third quarter, the group fell back into the red, though its operating loss narrowed by 26% from a year earlier, to $154 million. For the fiscal year ending June 30, Goldman Sachs analyst Rick Sherlund projects the Xbox group will cut Microsoft's earnings by about seven cents a share, or 5%, to $1.29.

The Mississippi-bred son of a Baptist preacher, Mr. Lee spent 13 years as an accountant and deal maker at Sony's movie unit. He joined Microsoft in 2000 to help set strategy for the Xbox and moved to his current job in 2002 when Microsoft Chief Executive Steve Ballmer installed finance heads at the company's seven major units to inject more financial rigor into daily operations.

The videogame group faces a unique challenge because it makes a hardware device. That means it has more in common with hyperefficient personal-computer maker Dell Inc. than with the rest of Microsoft.

Mr. Lee and his team have learned how to scrutinize the cost of components inside the Xbox. For the original Xbox, Microsoft relied on suppliers like Intel Corp. for key components, a strategy that helped it get the Xbox to market quickly but left it hostage to other companies' pricing decisions. By contrast, Sony, along with a partner, designed and manufactured its own chips for the PlayStation 2, creating savings as the cost to make the chip declined.

Microsoft also misjudged the impact of equipping the Xbox with a disk drive, similar to those that store information in PCs. Microsoft executives thought the drive would distinguish the machine from Sony's. But disk-drive prices don't decline the way chip prices do. That made it harder for Microsoft to cut prices on the Xbox as it aged, as makers of game players typically do.

For the Xbox 360, Microsoft executives decided in 2003 to design the main chip in partnership with International Business Machines Corp. That put "more of the financial control in our own hands," says Robbie Bach, head of the Home & Entertainment group and Mr. Lee's boss.

Then, Mr. Lee set strict sales, revenue and profit goals for the life of the Xbox 360. A manager seeking to spend more on a feature such as a disk drive has to find allies in the group to cut spending elsewhere, or identify new revenue to offset to increase. "The process forced us to talk about trade-offs," Mr. Lee says.

Consider how the group selected the amount of memory inside the box. When Microsoft first showed game developers the specifications, the box contained 256 megabytes of memory. The game makers said that wouldn't be enough for the coolest special effects. Adding more memory would boost the cost of the box by as much as $30, analysts estimate -- no small thing given it was expected to sell initially for about $300.

But Xbox managers determined that adding the memory would let Microsoft reduce marketing costs and attract more game developers, boosting royalty revenue. It also would extend the life of the console, generating more sales. Earlier this month, Microsoft said the Xbox 360 would contain 512 megabytes of memory, the same amount that will be in PlayStation 3.

Mr. Lee's targets also shaped game-development strategy. To ensure a variety of titles for the original Xbox, Microsoft expanded its own development studio. But few of its games sold well; most were considered me-too versions of perennial favorites, such as sports games. The big exception was Halo, conceived by a small developer Microsoft had purchased in 2000.

Mr. Lee last year led a controversial decision to cut back in-house game development. Now, Microsoft pitches Xbox 360 games from publishers such as Electronic Arts Inc. and Activision Inc. of the U.S. and Square Enix Co. of Japan, which recently agreed to put a popular game called Final Fantasy on the Xbox 360.

Mr. Ballmer says he is convinced the new machine will bring a "very significant change in profitability." Mr. Lee feels that pressure. He imagines a scene where he tells Mr. Ballmer that the Xbox 360 won't make money. "After that, they fire me," he says.
 
Earlier this month, Microsoft said the Xbox 360 would contain 512 megabytes of memory, the same amount that will be in PlayStation 3.

... I thought the PS3 only had 256? Not that I've spent much time pouring over the stats...

I wonder if folks realize how awkward it is for MS to be making hardware.... they really aren't a hardware company and this really isn't there thing... in a perfect MS world they would have simply made the Xbox and XBL OS and sold it to various hardware manufacturers... their commitment to various hardware projects in the past has been dubious... so I'm really curious to see how many generations this goes...
 
Xbox 360 will make Microsoft some respectable profits by yeard 3 or 4, imo. If not, then, that'll be the end of the Xbox "era" and Sony will have a monopoly over your souls much like EA has a monopoly over NFL games :D
 
human5892 said:
I'd also wager that should the 360 fail to profit, there probably won't be a third Xbox.

This is true, but considering the push for microtransactions this time around, they seem pretty determined to break even.
 
DarienA said:
... I thought the PS3 only had 256? Not that I've spent much time pouring over the stats...

Imagine the outcry if it only had 256, man? Be way more threads than this!

PS3 has: 256MB XDR Main RAM @3.2GHz and 256MB GDDR3 VRAM @700MHz
 
There is no reason why X360 won't make a profit this gen... Between the huge XBL push, a streamlined console and higher game prices if they dont make a profit they majorly fucked up somewhere.
 
Amir0x said:
Imagine the outcry if it only had 256, man? Be way more threads than this!

PS3 has: 256MB XDR Main RAM @3.2GHz and 256MB GDDR3 VRAM @700MHz

Thanks for the clarification. I try not to delve in to the specs too much... I like my eyes the way they are. ;)
 
This makes me wonder how legit or wide-spread that "Microsoft plans to drastically lower or do completely away with licensing fees with important 3rd parties" comment will end up being. They couldn't possibly expect to make money by undercutting Sony and Nintendo's licensing prices by a significant amount.
 
Razoric said:
There is no reason why X360 won't make a profit this gen... Between the huge XBL push, a streamlined console and higher game prices if they dont make a profit they majorly fucked up somewhere.

You forget that most important thing,how the console and its games will perform on the market is not predictable.
It will be very interesting to see X360's launch and how Sony will try to convince gamers to wait for PS3.
 
Elios83 said:
You forget that most important thing,how the console and its games will perform on the market is not predictable.
It will be very interesting to see X360's launch and how Sony will try to convince gamers to wait for PS3.
Bigtime. Especially with all of the EA love the 360 is getting.
 
Elios83 said:
You forget that most important thing,how the console and its games will perform on the market is not predictable.
It will be very interesting to see X360's launch and how Sony will try to convince gamers to wait for PS3.

If they don't sellout on X360s this Christmas in the U.S. then they have a serious problem. I think the hype is there, the games ---should--- be there, and the demand is building (almost every mainstream piece about gaming is now about 'next-gen'). This is Microsoft's to lose. If they flub on delivering next-gen quality games then they have no one to blame but themselves.

I honestly don't see this as DC2... yet.
 
I recall Sony not budging on PS2's price ($299) when the XBox and Game Cube were released. Will XBox do the same, or will they combat the later systems with a price drop of some kind?
 
I still see MS selling thier boxes at a loss. I think they are really banking on XBL and microtransactions for profitability.

Could spell disaster.
 
ToxicAdam said:
I still see MS selling thier boxes at a loss. I think they are really banking on XBL and microtransactions for profitability.

Could spell disaster.
Yeah, I'm really interested to see how these microtransactions are accepted.

Does pay-content on consoles sell at a decent clip now? Anyone have any figures?
 
Elios83 said:
You forget that most important thing,how the console and its games will perform on the market is not predictable.
It will be very interesting to see X360's launch and how Sony will try to convince gamers to wait for PS3.

So far the console looks to have lots of EA launch support... I think it'll do just fine.
 
The microtransactions wont do much for them without growing the userbase. I seriously doubt they are banking on these as a key for the Xbox business becoming a profitable one.
 
human5892 said:
Yeah, I'm really interested to see how these microtransactions are accepted.

Does pay-content on consoles sell at a decent clip now? Anyone have any figures?

The killtacular pack is a steal at $6.99, easily

Razoric said:
If they don't sellout on X360s this Christmas in the U.S. then they have a serious problem. .

Madden will do it in the states. Fifa in Europe, Need for Speed for people who don't like either of the two. They'll be fine in my opinion. Once they start airing commercials talking about the new Madden, I think it'll be a done deal as far as success in the states
 
ToxicAdam said:
I still see MS selling thier boxes at a loss. I think they are really banking on XBL and microtransactions for profitability.

Could spell disaster.

*looks at the MMORPG market*

uh no they'll be fine
 
DarienA said:
So far the console looks to have lots of EA launch support... I think it'll do just fine.

Yes but the EA games are also coming on the current consoles.Actually they're all games made for the current consoles and just visually upgraded for the X360...so I don't know if they will be a real incentive for X360 sales.Also Ea is not a system seller in Europe and in Japan it's irrelavant.
Honestly I don't think the X360 has a lineup strong enough to lead gamers to think "I want the next gen NOW", much depends on Rare, if PD0 and Kameo disappoint.....MS should think about selling them.
Also the Rare audience has tipically been on Nintendo platforms,who knows how Rare games will be received on the market.
 
Elios83 said:
Yes but the EA games are also coming on the current consoles.Actually they're all games made for the current consoles and just visually upgraded for the X360...so I don't know if they will be a real incentive for X360 sales.Also Ea is not a system seller in Europe and in Japan it's irrelavant.
Honestly I don't think the X360 has a lineup strong enough to lead gamers to think "I want the next gen NOW", much depends on Rare, if PD0 and Kameo disappoint.....MS should think about selling them.
Also the Rare audience has tipically been on Nintendo platforms,who knows how Rare games will be received on the market.
The X360, much like most (all?) reasonably-priced new consoles, will sell well initially no matter what. Hardcore early-adapters always take care of that. Remember how abysmal the PS2's launch lineup was? How about the DS?

Also, your reasoning about EA's games is specious. If gamers didn't care about the visual upgrade, a new Madden wouldn't sell well on any new system, period, as long as it was still coming out for the old systems.

EDIT: Oh, and if you think EA can not be a system seller in Europe, FIFA called. It wants to talk to you.
 
Elios83 said:
Yes but the EA games are also coming on the current consoles.Actually they're all games made for the current consoles and just visually upgraded for the X360....
EA has confirmed that they have seperate teams working on their sports games from the ground up for next gen. There's an article in the new Gameinformer that a speaks a little on this as well.
 
ToxicAdam said:
Which MMORPG will be ready at launch? FF?

I wouldn't call that game a guaranteed success.

Nah I was saying the way gamers spend money on MMORPGs, if the XBL games are good enough, people will spend the money on microtransations for their favorite games.

This isn't about Xbox 360 power, XBL / XBL marketplace, etc... their success / profitability will be soley determined on games and whether or not they are good enough to make that $3-400+ leap. We'll see if they have what it takes. :O
 
PhatSaqs said:
EA has confirmed that they have seperate teams working on their sports games from the ground up for next gen. There's an article in the new Gameinformer that a speaks a little on this as well.

Yeah, that was a pretty hot article. It paints EA in not such a bad light. You can take your dogs to work and shit. Workout shit, and cafeteria. Nice as fuck.
 
This ain't new, it was reported many many many many many many times...

XBOX 1.0 = For gamers
XBOX 2.0 = For shareholders
 
I can imagine Bill Gates' little notes from his executive meetings:

Losing money on console = old and busted.
Making money on console = teh sexy!
 
I think MS is just trying to find as many ways to make a profit on the console as possible and hoping that some of them will work out. The whole XBL silver plan seems to be a good plan for MS because they get to control the advertisements that users see, probably nets them a share of the revenue for the music and movies sold via XBL, and encourages people to buy XBL Gold memberships. They already have 2 million XBL customers that nets them an additional 100 million in revenues each year, so I think XBL could be an incredibly good source of income for MS this time, particularly if they can drive down manufacturing costs for the system itself.
 
Kobun Heat said:
The fuck you say.

Last time I checked the aim of Xbox 1 was profitability too.

I could've sworn that Xbox 1's purpose was to act as a trojan horse, to establish a console brand, regardless of profit/cost, so the next gen Xbox has a foundation to succeed... but that could've been damage control on MS's part once they realized they didn't have a chance of hell of turning a profit on the current gen.
 
djtiesto said:
I could've sworn that Xbox 1's purpose was to act as a trojan horse, to establish a console brand, regardless of profit/cost, so the next gen Xbox has a foundation to succeed... but that could've been damage control on MS's part once they realized they didn't have a chance of hell of turning a profit on the current gen.


That was the damage control before the Xbox even came out. There was a big "oh shit" moment when they released that they couldn't sell the Xbox for $50 more than the PS2 just because it had a hard drive.
 
The End said:
That was the damage control before the Xbox even came out. There was a big "oh shit" moment when they released that they couldn't sell the Xbox for $50 more than the PS2 just because it had a hard drive.

The funny thing with that is, PS2 memory cards were $35 in Xmas 2001 (when Xbox came out and when I got a PS2), and they hold maybe 1/1000th of the information :P And it also came with the ethernet port, which the original PS2 models didn't have (another $35)... After seeing Xbox and its extra features, I felt a little ripped off paying the $300 for PS2, even though I knew that PS2 was gonna be the system that has all the games I like.
 
djtiesto said:
I could've sworn that Xbox 1's purpose was to act as a trojan horse, to establish a console brand, regardless of profit/cost
To some degree. They didn't expect to be losing money today.
 
NintendosBooger said:
I recall Sony not budging on PS2's price ($299) when the XBox and Game Cube were released. Will XBox do the same, or will they combat the later systems with a price drop of some kind?


If MS wants to maintain the position of strength and give consumers the idea that their hardware is not inferior, then they'll stay at the $299 all throuhg 2006. It is especially important Xbox 360 stays at $299 at the PS3 launch because a price drop will make the system look inferior. Stay at $299 through 2006, and after the X360 establishes equal ground with the PS3 then you drop the price in 2007. If MS really wants to put the squeeze on Sony they can drop to $199.
 
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