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[Nickle]

Hindsight Bias. http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias

This easily explains why people think that the 6 character leak is "safe".

 

[Hyperactivity]

Oh, I thought you all lost your shit screaming like monkeys every update like I do.

I want a video of you doing this

I must be in the small minority upset that the last Direct's reveal of Charizard seemed like a death sentence to my boy Ivysaur.

I feel like I've been Roy'd.

Same here, although Greninja helped alleviate my pain.

 

[Enforced]

With this kid Icarus talk is making me want to play the game again.

 

[Berordn]

Hindsight Bias. http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias

This easily explains why people think that the 6 character leak is "safe".

Even here on GAF people were speculating on Mega Man, Villager and even Pac-Man, before the leak was a thing.

 

[GamerJM]

I don't think the six character leak was "safe," but I also don't believe that it was a legit leak, primarily because over the years I've learned to distrust Nintendo-related leaks from experience. I do think that the fact that it had WFT gives some credence to it.

 

[Shadow Hog]

What, do you normally externally salivate?

Maybe he's a Greninja

 

[TheLegendOfCap]

Even here on GAF people were speculating on Mega Man, Villager and even Pac-Man, before the leak was a thing.

I ran the thread for "Villager" on Smash Boards during SSB4 speculation AND Brawl speculation.

Both got to like 3 pages MAX. I felt like his biggest advocate at times, along with a few others. He was constantly brushed off with very little support.

I don't believe for a second that he was "expected" or easy guess. He wasn't, not many people gave him a shot. It was usually Tom Nook.

 

[Hyperactivity]

I don't think the six character leak was "safe," but I also don't believe that it was a legit leak, primarily because over the years I've learned to distrust Nintendo-related leaks from experience. I do think that the fact that it had WFT gives some credence to it.

And the brawl leak?
Greninja leak for Pokemon X/Y?
couple others that I cant remember

I think the first is legit for sure, about 68% sure for 2nd, although I don't doubt sal's credibility, especially after reading that smashboards post

 

[J-Tier]

Even here on GAF people were speculating on Mega Man, Villager and even Pac-Man, before the leak was a thing.

Wow, looking back at my list, it was definitely influenced by recency bias.

Been mulling over this for awhile...but finally posting something...

Characters:
Mario
Luigi
Peach
Bowser
Yoshi
Wario
Waluigi
Donkey Kong
Diddy Kong
Link
Zelda
Sheik
Toon Link
Skull Kid
Ganondorf
Samus
Ridley
Pit
Palutena
Fox
Falco
Wolf
Ice Climbers
Kirby
Meta Knight
King Dedede
Captain Olimar
Captain Falcon
Pikachu
Pokémon Trainer Gen 1
Pokemon X/Y Character
Jigglypuff
Mewtwo
Marth
Chrom
The Wonderful 101 Hero
Ness
Andy (Advanced Wars)
Jill & Drill Dozer
R.O.B.
Mr. Game & Watch
Little Mac
Shulk
Isaac
Sonic

Assist Trophies:
Nabbit (NSMBU)
Andross
Excitebike
Hammer Bros.
Metroid
Mr. Resetti
Tingle
Starfy
Polterpup
Tails
Knuckles


Poke Balls:
Pancham
Xerneas
Yveltal
Snorlax

Stages:
Skyloft
Kalos Region City
Wonderful 101 Stage
Sonic Lost World Stage
Pikmin 3 Stage
Luigi's Dream
Majora's Mask Stage

Items:
Blue Shell

 

[Nickle]

Even here on GAF people were speculating on Mega Man, Villager and even Pac-Man, before the leak was a thing.

This is the a list of the people who guessed that WFT would be a character.

 

[SenorArdilla]

Hindsight Bias. http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias

This easily explains why people think that the 6 character leak is "safe".

And Greninja was unexpected as well since there was no Lucario equivalent in Pokemon X & Y that Gamefreak was trying to push. So some people thought that either Pokemon Trainer would get the Kalos starters, the rep would be Sylveon because Fairy-types, or there would be no playable Kalos Pokemon at all.

 

[Boss Doggie]

Waifu, husbando, same thing.

But everything is a waifu

Including

Mai Knaifu. (✿◠‿&#9696

:/

 

[Loco4Coco]

No one is safe from smash.

 

[theprodigy]

This is the a list of the people who guessed that WFT would be a character.

It's a good thing WFT was not included in his post then!

 

[Ryce]

Even here on GAF people were speculating on Mega Man, Villager and even Pac-Man, before the leak was a thing.

Out of the 120+ people who entered the contest, only one guessed Villager.

 

[ALM5252]

What's the opinion on Roy returning along with Mewtwo (and Dr. Mario as an alternate costume)?

I never see him mentioned. Is it only because he is a clone? He was pretty popular in Melee and I even came to like him because of Project M's changes in his gameplay.

I personally want Roy, Mewtwo, and Dr. Mario to return in Smash 4. They were planned for Brawl after all...

 

[GamerJM]

And the brawl leak?
Greninja leak for Pokemon X/Y?
couple others that I cant remember

I think the first is legit for sure, about 68% sure for 2nd, although I don't doubt sal's credibility, especially after reading that smashboards post

What was the Brawl leak? I was following Brawl pretty closely and there were tons of "leaks" that ended up being false.

 

[Berordn]

I ran the thread for "Villager" on Smash Boards during SSB4 speculation AND Brawl speculation.

Both got to like 3 pages MAX. I felt like his biggest advocate at times, along with a few others. He was constantly brushed off with very little support.

I don't believe for a second that he was "expected" or easy guess. He wasn't, not many people gave him a shot. It was usually Tom Nook.

I never said that he was expected by and large, just that he's not such a longshot that nobody saw him coming. Discussion on a potential villager character dominated the second page of the roster competition, even with the "blow" he got from the Brawl exclusion.

This is the a list of the people who guessed that WFT would be a character.

And that's one, the outlier. Nobody (that I've seen) has said that WFT was expected, just that it makes sense in hindsight. Mega Man, Pac Man, Mii and even Villager had decent support from various sources.

 

[SenorArdilla]

I wonder how many fan-made rosters are now defunct because of that "no more transformations" rule.

 

[Benzychenz]

What was the Brawl leak? I was following Brawl pretty closely and there were tons of "leaks" that ended up being false.

I remember there being one that went over so much stuff, I think it had the dragoon item. It was pretty much thrown in the pile with all the other fake 'leaks' until after the game came out and someone read it again and it was all true.

But everything is a waifu

Including



Mai Knaifu. (✿◠‿&#9696

what a qt

 

[Nickle]

And that's one, the outlier. Nobody (that I've seen) has said that WFT was expected, just that it makes sense in hindsight. Mega Man, Pac Man, Mii and even Villager had decent support from various sources.

Yep, that is exactly what hindsight bias is. You are kind of proving my point.

 

[Sciz]

What's the opinion on Roy returning along with Mewtwo (and Dr. Mario as an alternate costume)?

I never see him mentioned. Is it only because he is a clone?

He's a clone, he was cut from Brawl, and he's a one-off character from a game that wasn't internationally released. His day in the sun is over.

 

[theprodigy]

Imagine if Sakurai made an announcement that there were a total of x amount of playable characters.
Just think of the reactions when x-1 characters have already been revealed!

 

[TheRedSnifit]

What's the opinion on Roy returning along with Mewtwo (and Dr. Mario as an alternate costume)?

I never see him mentioned. Is it only because he is a clone? He was pretty popular in Melee and I even came to like him because of Project M's changes in his gameplay.

I personally want Roy, Mewtwo, and Dr. Mario to return in Smash 4. They were planned for Brawl after all...

Given how successful Awakening was, I'd expect somebody from that. And given how Roy's game has never seen a Western release, he seems rather unlikely.

Spoiler

#TeamHenry

 

[SenorArdilla]

what a qt

Definitely a cut above the rest. What I wouldn't give for a slice of that.

Imagine if Sakurai made an announcement that there were a total of x amount of playable characters.
Just think of the reactions when x-1 characters have already been revealed!

x_left = x_total -n,
where x_left = # of unrevealed characters,
x_total = # of characters in the game,
and n = # of revealed characters

 

[ALM5252]

Okay, so I saw this that shows Snake's CardBoard Box in the background of the Nintendog scene from the trailer, and had to check it myself on YouTube and it really is there!

I find it amazing how Snake was already "shown" in the trailer before his actual surprise appearance.

Here's a screen capture I made of it off YouTube to confirm it was in the trailer (with crap quality).

Maybe Sakurai is hiding things in the current trailers that are in plain sight?

 

[kiri]

Random post; I have to walk past the Bandai Namco building everyday to work and it's KILLING ME knowing that I'm metres away from a playable build of SSB4

 

[Hyperactivity]

Given how successful Awakening was, I'd expect somebody from that. And given how Roy's game has never seen a Western release, he seems rather unlikely.

Spoiler

#TeamHenry

#TeamHenry as well

Spoiler

3/4 of the big Awakening teams are either bad or meh

From worst to best
TeamTharja
TeamChrom
TeamLucina
Team Anna

based around my opinions on the characters

Random post; I have to walk past the Bandai Namco building everyday to work and it's KILLING ME knowing that I'm metres away from a playable build of SSB4

Maybe we could get a few more people there and do a repeat of the Retro new building thread
That thread was brilliant

 

[PorygonVandal]

Random post; I have to walk past the Bandai Namco building everyday to work and it's KILLING ME knowing that I'm metres away from a playable build of SSB4

YOU ARE SMASH GAF HOPE, TACKLE SAKURAI WHEN HE ARRIVES

 

[GamerJM]

Okay, so I saw this that shows Snake's CardBoard Box in the background of the Nintendog scene from the trailer, and had to check it myself on YouTube and it really is there!

I find it amazing how Snake was already "shown" in the trailer before his actual surprise appearance.

Here's a screen capture I made of it off YouTube to confirm it was in the trailer (with crap quality).



Maybe Sakurai is hiding things in the current trailers that are in plain sight?

To be fair he was shown in that same trailer. And also that's not the sort of thing that people would be able to make a random leap of logic to guess if it did end before Snake was shown, so there's no use in theorizing about current Smash 4 trailers.

Random post; I have to walk past the Bandai Namco building everyday to work and it's KILLING ME knowing that I'm metres away from a playable build of SSB4

Is it the one in Japan? If not I doubt they actually have a playable build, though who knows.

And if it isn't I've seen that building a lot too lol. I even know a dude who works for Bamco indirectly, I've somehow gotten free copies of Tales of Vesperia, Culdcept Saga, Tekken 6, Enslaved, and Knight's Contract out of that.

 

[Berordn]

Yep, that is exactly what hindsight bias is. You are kind of proving my point.

Not at all? I'm using events before the occurrence (the leak/E3/whatever) to say that guessing Mega Man, Pac Man, Little Mac, Mii and Villager were fairly common (with a degree of variance) guesses around the community and nothing out of the ordinary.

Throwing WFT into that doesn't change that people were already guessing 5/6 of the original rumor, before it was even a thing.

 

[kiri]

YOU ARE SMASH GAF HOPE, TACKLE SAKURAI WHEN HE ARRIVES

After lunch I do a lap of the building in the hopes of catching him ohgodwhatamidoingwithmylife

 

[PorygonVandal]

After lunch I do a lap of the building in the hopes of catching him ohgodwhatamidoingwithmylife

That is why you fail

You need to skip work and don't eat

 

[EcoNative]

Maybe Sakurai is hiding things in the current trailers that are in plain sight?

He did do this with the substitute doll earlier in the direct before he revealed Greninja.

 

[kiri]

That is why you fail

You need to skip work and don't eat

On the off-chance that I DID meet him, what should I ask?

PS. I would not ask about Ridley. I simply don't care.

 

[theprodigy]

That is why you fail

You need to skip work and don't eat

And this is why you don't take GAF's advice

 

[Hyperactivity]

He did do this with the substitute doll earlier in the direct
before he revealed Greninja.

Gave me an idea

That is why you fail


You need to skip work and don't eat

He needs a substitute doll to help him out

Now remember, camera 1 will be our first focus ;P

 

[ALM5252]

He did do this with the substitute doll earlier in the direct before he revealed Greninja.

That was in plain sight too and I forgot all about it! Ha!

 

[Hyperactivity]

On the off-chance that I DID meet him, what should I ask?

PS. I would not ask about Ridley. I simply don't care.

Maybe confirm that he's lurking onhere
One of us is Sakurai

Spoiler

according to SmashGAF when we're messing around

"confirmed" during fake Palutena leak

 

[PadWarrior]

Random post; I have to walk past the Bandai Namco building everyday to work and it's KILLING ME knowing that I'm metres away from a playable build of SSB4

You need to rectify this problem.

 

[Loco4Coco]

On the off-chance that I DID meet him, what should I ask?

PS. I would not ask about Ridley. I simply don't care.

Ask if stickers return in SSB4.

 

[Hyperactivity]

Random post; I have to walk past the Bandai Namco building everyday to work and it's KILLING ME knowing that I'm metres away from a playable build of SSB4

Here's a good idea

Send Sakurai substitute/other dolls of characters with cameras in them
confirmed to work 100%

Spoiler

jk

 

[TheRedSnifit]

And this is why you don't take GAF's advice

I know, right? He needs to stop sleeping, too.

 

[Shadow Hog]

I'm pretty sure there are security guards to explicitly prevent random passersby from hassling the staff inside the building.

 

[PorygonVandal]

And this is why you don't take GAF's advice

I like how you bolded the work part, so you rather have him starve to death than leave his job

 

[TheRedSnifit]

Maybe confirm that he's lurking onhere
One of us is Sakurai

Spoiler

according to SmashGAF when we're messing around

"confirmed" during fake Palutena leak

He's probably EmCee, posting pictures of Samus's

Spoiler

neck

to try and trick us into getting moved to Community.

 

[Benzychenz]

Not at all? I'm using events before the occurrence (the leak/E3/whatever) to say that guessing Mega Man, Pac Man, Little Mac, Mii and Villager were fairly common (with a degree of variance) guesses around the community and nothing out of the ordinary.

Throwing WFT into that doesn't change that people were already guessing 5/6 of the original rumor, before it was even a thing.

Guessing those 5 is plausible, sure. If a bunch of people all chose 5 characters there's bound to be some that picked those 5.

but

Add WFT and it's not so plausible. They could have had WFT any 5 other characters (eg Dixie Kong, Zoroark, Isaac etc). They didn't. One of the only people that guessed WFT put her with those other 5. That is not a lucky guess.

 

[Pop-O-Matic]

Just found the best dream roster.

Runner-up

 

[GamerJM]

Just found the best dream roster.

Runner-up

Who the fuck is "AGK" supposed to be

 

[Loco4Coco]

Second roster has JonTron, best roster so far.