2014 FIFA World Cup |OT5| Que Jara, Jara. Whatever Will Be, Will Be.

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Fret not, I wasn't saying that you are saying that "modeling is useless". I was just questioning the point of prediction/skill in a game if the results approximated random. I question if an individual's predictions are that helpful, especially if humans are prone to decision making biases.

Well, it's not that skill amounts to nothing, or that results are random. It's more that these models I feel rely too much on historical data when more recent data would be a better predictor (but then again, using very recent data won't help if you're looking for general trends, which is what most of these models such as the SPI the 538 model is based on aim for, so there's a trade-off). That's why you can probably predict the general performance of a team over time decently well with a given model, but then that same model stumbles trying to model the result of a single upcoming match.

Also, if there were accurate enough models, betting wouldn't be such good business (for the betting houses :P).
 
Dem match day nerves. First time I'm feeling it this worldcup. I hope we lead 3-0 by half time. I don't want to miss Courtney Barnett perform :(
 
Interesting set of matches yesterday by the way. BRA - CHI seemed fairly even, with both teams having better periods in the game. Chile could have definitely won that if they would have had the balls to keep the pressure on and go for another goal. The other game was totally one sided (from what I've seen) and URU just got outclassed on all fronts (except fouling).
 
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wish I got a pic of every team. some of the english translations were great :) they said the USA was a global superpower but in terms of football it was not even close.
 
General consensus on the upcoming netherlands/mexico match today?

I feel like the netherlands will take it and maybe even win the entire cup, but who knows?
 
It's also a joke that was funny the first time, maybe the first couple of times, but after a few years the joke has lost all effect now. It's no longer funny.
 
I'm still fucking devastated, man. It hurts like hell... but, you know what? I'm proud. I'm proud of them boys. They gave their all. They left everything on the pitch. They were playing against the home team, against thousands of people screaming their lungs out against them - a yellow and green and blue tide that threatened to uproot and disintegrate everything in its wake. But they fought.

And while they lost, they never gave up. They were fighting until the end. And they went out with a bang.

I'm devastated, yes. But I'm proud of them. I believed in them, and I still do. They were carrying the weight of their homeland in their shoulders, and they made us proud.

And my new avatar is in honor of GARY FUCKING MEDEL. He's a beast. He played the entire match with a huge-ass strain that left his legs in shambles. He'll be out of the game for 2 months after today. He didn't care. He wanted to play for his country, he wanted to win. He's all passion and guts and fire. He may not be the most technical, the most exciting, the tallest or the strongest. But he has a heart bigger than his own damn country, and for that, we love him. He's a goddamn hero. His tears at the end were the tears of all of us. Of those screaming and crying at the stadium, surrounded by a wall of yellow and green and blue, not feeling intimidated at all. Of those screaming and crying at home, alongside friends or family or total strangers. He cried, and probably most of us did, but we're proud of him. We love him. He's one of us - but we can only dream and hope against hope that we can be as big and passionate as him.

So I'm devastated. I have said it already, but there's no other word to describe my current state. And at the same time, there's something greater to be learned from all this bitterness and anguish. That, somehow, if we all believe - then sometimes, even the most impossible of things can be accomplished. Even in the face of armageddon, as someone once said.

I'm proud of them. I'll never forget.

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Due to the new continent-based fondness found in this thread, I should probably root for the Netherlands and Greece today, shouldn't I?

¡VAMOS MEXICO! ¡VAMOS TICOS!

Actually, beating the Netherlands in the final would be even better. But I'm not sure if I really want this game to happen…
 
Hup holland! In an idiot move of drunken confidence I put all my gambling funds on a Dutch victory

Monday will suck balls if this goes bad
 
I'm about to head off to see the Netherlands v Mexico match.

I want Mexico to win because I like Mexico as a country (spent two months there a couple yeArs so have a heap of Mexican friends) but I want Netherlands to do well as it makes Australia's performance look better. So I'm sort of torn.

Hopefully it's a high scoring match, with these two teams there will be goals.
 
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