Box Office Challenge! 5 highest grossing films worldwide of the next three years?

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A

Akahige

Member
I forgot about animated movies, outside Finding Dory I'm blanking on any hyped animated sequels that would do guaranteed money.
 
M

Mushroomer25

Member
1. Star Wars : Episode VII
2. Avengers : Age Of Ultron
3. Star Wars : Episode VIII
4. Avatar 2
5. Avatar 3

Assuming some of those miss target dates, I'll allow substitutions for Captain America 3, and Mockingjay : Part 2.
 
S

SCULLIBUNDO

Banned
Justice League will depend entirely on whether or not BvS is a shitheap or not. Hell, BvS making the list depends on the same thing - as making this list pretty much requires repeat viewings and good WoM.
 
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Rastafarian42

Member
Scullibundo said:
Justice League will depend entirely on whether or not BvS is a shitheap or not. Hell, BvS making the list depends on the same thing - as making this list pretty much requires repeat viewings and good WoM.
Click to expand...

Very true it all depends on it's quality, but BvS does have the two iconic heroes on the big screen also going for it.
 
B

BLACKLAC

Member
Too many variables, too hard to predict. Will Avatar 2 suffer a similar fate Sin-City did?

If quality is top notch across the board (90%+ RT).

1. Avengers AoU
2. BvS
3. Star Wars : Episode VIII
4. Avatar 3
5. Guardians 2
 
I

Instro

Member
Rastafarian42 said:
I don't think so the hype machine Disney will create for it will be too much Phantom Menace had a 57 % RT and it made a billion.
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Comparatively though, PM was coming off a 20 year gap from the most beloved film franchise at the time. All three new movies were not good, and the last 2 did not crack a billion. The marketing will be immense and the international market is much bigger though of course.
 
D

Discotheque

Banned
Scullibundo said:
Justice League will depend entirely on whether or not BvS is a shitheap or not. Hell, BvS making the list depends on the same thing - as making this list pretty much requires repeat viewings and good WoM.
Click to expand...

International audiences don't know wtf WOM is. Transformers 4 is the biggest film of the year
 
C

CassSept

Member
While at least one of the expected heavy-hitters will probably underperform (this thread 3 years ago would be full of Hobbit picks, yet here we are) and there will be a surprise hit or two, for now I'm going with:

1. Avengers 2
2. Star Wars VII
3. Avatar 2
4. Finding Dory
5. Pirates of the Carribean 5

...I'm off to prepare crows for Avatar 2 release
 
G

GreyMatter

Member
Instro said:
Comparatively though, PM was coming off a 20 year gap from the most beloved film franchise at the time. All three new movies were not good, and the last 2 did not crack a billion. The marketing will be immense and the international market is much bigger though of course.
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Going deeper still, Star Wars' (and arguably other trilogy's') middle entries tend to do the worst of the lot, and Rian Johnson is nowhere near as bankable a name as J.J's. For the time being anyway. I'm inclined to count Episode VIII out of the top 5.

This list is insane though. I have no idea what to expect from Avatar going forward. China's definitely locked down. Mockingjay will be huge. I feel like Age of Ultron will edge out Avengers by a little bit.. Gonna have to let this one fester a bit.
 
R

Rastafarian42

Member
Instro said:
Comparatively though, PM was coming off a 20 year gap from the most beloved film franchise at the time. All three new movies were not good, and the last 2 did not crack a billion. The marketing will be immense and the international market is much bigger though of course.
Click to expand...

A new Star Wars film for a generation will be HUGE the previous trilogy may not have lived up to the OG one but the brand is still strong as ever it's been able to spread into a hit television series, multiple hit video-games, and countless other media it's firmly cemented itself in pop culture. The minute a trailer hits it'll be talked about all over the media plus as you said the international market is even bigger than it was when Phantom made a billion.
 
E

Exalted

Member
I think that the Warcraft movie also might be a good contender, if they go all out on the marketing. It has an insane budget, and will no doubt have great visuals with the amount of postproduction it has. It might appeal to the same crowd as Avatar.
 
S

SCULLIBUNDO

Banned
Rastafarian42 said:
A new Star Wars film for a generation will be HUGE the previous trilogy may not have lived up to the OG one but the brand is still strong as ever it's been able to spread into a hit television series , multiple hit video-games, and countless other media it's firmly cemented itself in pop culture. The minute a trailer hits it'll be talked about all over the media. Plus as you said the international market is even bigger than it was when Phantom made a billion.
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Seriously. Any prequel damage will be undone the moment Luke, Han Solo and the Millenium Falcon show up in a trailer.

Exalted said:
I think that the Warcraft movie also might be a good contender, if they go all out on the marketing. It has an insane budget, and will no doubt have great visuals with the amount of postproduction it has. It might appeal to the same croud as Avatar.
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I sincerely doubt Warcraft will appeal to the same crowd as Avatar as the crowd for Avatar was EVERYBODY. Grandmas and women in their mid-30s ain't going to see no Warcraft. It's also being dumped early in the year now if I'm not mistaken.
 
C

CassSept

Member
Instro said:
Comparatively though, PM was coming off a 20 year gap from the most beloved film franchise at the time. All three new movies were not good, and the last 2 did not crack a billion. The marketing will be immense and the international market is much bigger though of course.
Click to expand...

PM cracked a billion only due to the recent rerelease, huge movies making billions is a development that didn't fully come into force until the last half-decade. Until Dark Knight which cracked a billion in late '08/early '09 additional screenings there were 3 movies that made over a billion and only counting 2009-2014 there were 13 movies released that cracked the barrier.
 
S

SCULLIBUNDO

Banned
CassSept said:
PM cracked a billion only due to the recent rerelease, huge movies making billions is a development that didn't fully come into force until the last half-decade. Until Dark Knight which cracked a billion in late '08/early '09 additional screenings there were 3 movies that made over a billion and only counting 2009-2014 there were 13 movies released that cracked the barrier.
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$2b is the new bar to clear. $1b is so passé.
 
S

Sgt. Kabukiman

Banned
1 - Avatar 2
2 - Star Wars Episode VII
3 - Avengers : Age of Ultron
4 - Batman v Superman
5 - Iron Man 4 ?

I have my doubts about the success of Avatar 2 & 3 but I've learned to never doubt Cameron so we'll see...

Edit :

And I don't know about the Warcraft movie... I think it could end up being a pretty big disappointment in terms of box-office. There's always a chance for it to be a success but I feel like the Warcraft name has a mostly negative connotation. The game is massive but I don't know that mainstream audiences think that highly of the brand. It will really depend on the trailer, the marketing campaign and word of mouth...
 
U

user_nat

THE WORDS! They'll drift away without the _!
So for the previous 3 years the top 5 were..
1. Avengers
2. Harry Potter 12
3. Frozen
4. Iron Man 3
5. Skyfall


So it seems likely that something unexpected will get in..

1. Avatar 2
2. Avengers 2
3. Some unknown movie
4. Star Wars 7
5. Batman meets Superman
 
C

CassSept

Member
user_nat said:
So for the previous 3 years the top 5 were..

3. Frozen

5. Skyfall
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These two are the reason why this list is not as obvious as it would seem. If 3 years ago you said Skyfall would gross $1.1 bn you'd be ridiculed by everyone sane but select few. Frozen is more believable, but it's still surprising it got that huge.
 
TDLink

TDLink

Member
Warcraft will be successful because at the very least everyone who has played a Warcraft game will go see it, then you add in those who didn't play the games but just like fantasy films. However, I don't think it has any chance in hell at getting into the top 5 for the next 3 years. Maybe top 5 in 2016, but even that is iffy. Especially considering it is a March release.

user_nat said:
So for the previous 3 years the top 5 were..
1. Avengers
2. Harry Potter 12
3. Frozen
4. Iron Man 3
5. Skyfall


So it seems likely that something unexpected will get in..

1. Avatar 2
2. Avengers 2
3. Some unknown movie
4. Star Wars 7
5. Batman meets Superman
Click to expand...

That top 5 isn't really unexpected. All of those movies are big franchise films except for Frozen, which while it did surprisingly well is another in a long line of Disney fairy tale musicals that have had huge success in the past. Yes the success was far above expectations, but it isn't surprising it was successful in the first place.

A more apt comparison would be something like Avatar, which was entirely original. It's pretty much impossible to predict stuff like that which will come out of nowhere and generate that kind of response. Plus, even with Avatar a big part of that was banking on the Director's past work/high quality reputation and the new technologies which the movie employed.
 
S

SCULLIBUNDO

Banned
Phoenician_Viking said:
Why did you put SW before Avengers?
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Because I believe that a lot of the first Avengers' film repeat business came from the fun/novelty of seeing all the heroes on screen at once - something I believe won't be quite as potent the second time around. I don't think there will be as many repeat screenings with AoU.

I have high hopes that Abrams is going to knock Ep7 out of the park. Everything we've seen thus far in terms of the production seems to be pointing to them angling towards a very successful comeback for Star Wars. They'll have the older SW generations and the new audiences. If Abrams is able to craft a good (doesn't even have to be great) movie, there will be repeat business. It's been that long since we've had a good Star Wars film. Add IMAX (actually shot in) and 3D screenings and SW will be hitting hard this time around.
 
H

hodayathink

Member
TDLink said:
That top 5 isn't really unexpected. All of those movies are big franchise films except for Frozen, which while it did surprisingly well is another in a long line of Disney fairy tale musicals that have had huge success in the past. Yes the success was far above expectations, but it isn't surprising it was successful in the first place.

A more apt comparison would be something like Avatar, which was entirely original. It's pretty much impossible to predict stuff like that which will come out of nowhere and generate that kind of response. Plus, even with Avatar a big part of that was banking on the Director's past work/high quality reputation and the new technologies which the movie employed.
Click to expand...

First of all, hindsight is 20/20. People would have laughed in your face if you said the next movie from the Tangled people would gross a billion dollars.

Also, predicting a Bond movie will be successful is one thing (it's been at least a decade since one wasn't successful). But there's a difference between "being a success" and grossing over a billion dollars. Predicting Skyfall would do that is basically similar to some people putting Fast and Furious 7 on their lists. Sure, it's a successful franchise, but this is a whole different level of success.

Or to use your other example, it wouldn't be a surprise if a Disney/Pixar movie made this list, but it might be a surprise which one it is. Maybe it's Inside/Out and not Finding Dory?
 
A

Abounder

Banned
TDLink said:
Plus, even with Avatar a big part of that was banking on the Director's past work/high quality reputation and the new technologies which the movie employed.
Click to expand...

In addition I think Avatar benefited from its status quo: the recession; just like how people flocked to the movies during the great depression and other economic downturns. The world needed to escape to an expensive 3D experience on Pandora.

If Avatar 2 doesn't get delayed it should rival the top of the lists especially with China's growth.
 
T

Tricky I Shadow

Banned
1. Avatar 2
2. Avengers: Age of Ultron
3. Star Wars Episode VII
4. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
5. Finding Dory

You’re doing it wrong if Avatar 2 is not 1.
 
F

FeD.nL

Member
1. Star Wars Episode VII

Disney will market the shit out of it and turn the nostalgia button into overload.

2. Avatar 2

Avatar came at the right time but it has to be seen if there will be as many repeat viewings for the sequel as there are now many more big budget Sci-fi films coming out than there were in 2009

3. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

The battle of the decade. People have seen super heroes save the world over and over. Implying that the, arguably, two most well-known heroes will be pitted against eachother might be enough for Warner to take back the crown from Marvel.

4. Avengers: Age of Ultron

I see Avengers pulling around the same number as the first one but there wont be as many repeat viewings I expect.

5. Jurassic World

Between all the super hero and sci-fi movies I fully expect Jurassic World to do Jurrassic Park number with the 3d factored in. Chris Pratt coming off of GotG will help too.
 
H

Hamlet

Member
I'll say

1. Avatar 2
2. Avengers: Age of Ultron
3. Star Wars Episode VII
4. Finding Dory
5. Minions

I'm pretty sure that the minions are going to rake in bucket loads of cash for Universal and Illumination Entertainment considering Despicable Me 2 made $970 million last year. Avatar 2 is going to make billions no matter what its just a question of how high can it go.
 
H

Heshinsi

"playing" dumb? unpossible
1- Avatar 2
2- Avatar 3
3- Avengers: Age of Ultron
4- Star Wars: Lens Flare Edition
5- Pirates 5
 
A

Alrus

Member
Anyone putting Avatar 2 under anything but maybe Star Wars VII is insane...

-Avatar 2
-Star Wars VII
-Avengers 2
-Pirates 5
-Finding Dory
 
M

munchie64

Member
This is too difficult for me too really think about/have any original thought, but in terms of the big ones I think it would go:
  1. Avatar
  2. Star Wars
  3. Avengers
  4. Batman v Superman
Don't have any reason as to why Star Wars would beat Avengers, but the others are pretty safe unless they turn out REALLY bad.
 
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