August 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes September 9th

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I bet Microsoft has contacted all the major retailers and determined that August sales are less than optimal.

So when NPD comes out with confirmed numbers...look forward to seeing more non-statements and deflection. And to think, Microsoft was once so diligent in boasting PR every month...
 
Aquamarine said:
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I bet Microsoft has contacted all the major retailers and determined that August sales are less than optimal.

So when NPD comes out with confirmed numbers...look forward to seeing more non-statements and deflection. And to think, Microsoft was once so diligent in boasting PR every month...
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I love most of the Xbox team, but Aaron Greenberg is just horrible. I can't decide if he's better or worse than Yusuf Mehdi.

"Hey guys this first year is just the preseason! It doesn't count!"
 
I think September is going to be a real interesting month with the PS4 having however many months of white PS4 sales all counting in one month, plus the regular sku.
 
Aquamarine said:
X3Xm18A.png



I bet Microsoft has contacted all the major retailers and determined that August sales are less than optimal.

So when NPD comes out with confirmed numbers...look forward to seeing more non-statements and deflection. And to think, Microsoft was once so diligent in boasting PR every month...
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So basically PS4 on top for August, and most likely September too, as everyone expected. I've said it before, but I'm starting to have doubts if even Halo MCC is enough to for the X1 to take the #1 spot for one month...
 
Kazuma Kiryu said:
So basically PS4 on top for August, and most likely September too, as everyone expected. I've said it before, but I'm starting to have doubts if even Halo MCC is enough to for the X1 to take the #1 spot for one month...
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September has the Destiny PS4 bundle push, so if Xbox doesn't win August then November really is the next real chance for Xbox One to overtake it.
 
Toemon said:
Well remember what Phil Spencer said in regards to when "the real battle starts" which is Sept.
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Well, he will have nightmares then.
The PS4 will destroy the XboxOne in september.
The white PS4/Destiny bundle alone is already a monster.
 
Well I guess I dont need to guess anymore since Pachter spilled the console numbers already. Good job, Microsoft. Nice month over month increase. Good job Nintendo. Nice year over year increase. Too bad Sony for a month over month drop, but it has to be because people like me were holding off for the white PS4 bundle tomorrow.
 
Timmay said:
Well I guess I dont need to guess anymore since Pachter spilled the console numbers already. Good job, Microsoft. Nice month over month increase. Good job Nintendo. Nice year over year increase. Too bad Sony for a month over month drop, but it has to be because people like me were holding off for the white PS4 bundle tomorrow.
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No he didn't.

See my post that I made earlier:



Aquamarine said:
"Sony sold approximately 175,000 PS4s in the U.S. last month. That’s a 14 percent drop from the previous month."

What a pathetic distortion of Pachter's estimates.

We know from relative tracking of his numbers that some GAFfers routinely perform better than him.
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Aquamarine said:
I assume it's tailored in that way to get the most clicks.

All the figures in that article come from Pachter's regular data estimations.


He conducts a small survey of channel checks from a variety of USA retailers and formulates predictions based on that + NPD precedent.

Aquamarine said:
Pachter's predictions:


PS4 - 175K
XBO - 150K
3DS - 90K
WIU - 65K
360 - 45K
PS3 - 30K

PSV - 15K
WII - 12.5K
DS - 0.5K
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What the author of this article fails to understand is that Pachter is nowhere near definitive on the matter.

GAFfers have also made this mistake in the past when they would create threads dedicated to reporting Pachter's predictions.


And yes, you're correct. PS4 sold 863K in December 2013 while XBO sold 908K.
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Aquamarine said:
No he didn't.

See my post that I made earlier:
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He actually says it's a 7 percent drop for PS4, not 14. It's a 14 percent jump for Xbox One. I have no idea how factual his numbers are. I just assumed he saw the results. You're saying it's a bad assumption and he's just guessing? If so it's weird for him to be so specific.
 
Timmay said:
He actually says it's a 7 percent drop for PS4, not 14. It's a 14 percent jump for Xbox One. I have no idea how factual his numbers are. I just assumed he saw the results. You're saying it's a bad assumption and he's just guessing? If so it's weird for him to be so specific.
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He makes predictions every month and the NPD numbers haven't been published yet.
 
Well, November and December are the most important. Microsoft is going to go crazy on Black Friday, I can easily see XBO + 4 games + $100 Live credit for $399, maybe even an XBO for $299, if things get desperate enough.

Sony should be properly ready with plentiful stock and very tempting deals because the holiday period involves more impulse buying and less rational thinking compared to the other months of the year. Even the Xbox managed to beat the PS2 once during Nov+Dec 2004. If you blink, you lose.

But let's not rush time, it is already flying as it is. We still got 3 NPD months before November.
 
Timmay said:
He actually says it's a 7 percent drop for PS4, not 14. It's a 14 percent jump for Xbox One. I have no idea how factual his numbers are. I just assumed he saw the results. You're saying it's a bad assumption and he's just guessing? If so it's weird for him to be so specific.
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I receive Pachter's prediction estimates directly.

I know EXACTLY what Pachter does, and what I said above is his process.


He has the full set of NPD data and mixes his knowledge of previous numbers with intuition and a small sampling of channel checks from a variety of retailers.

However, Pachter is an unreliable source. His numbers have significantly differed from NPD (the definitive source of real-world retail data) on numerous occasions.

Sometimes he's close, sometimes he's far apart. But he's not definitive. As I said, some GAFfers are routinely better than him at predicting NPD numbers.

And that stupid article you read is incredibly misleading...it's treating Pachter's PREDICTIONS like they're the word of god when in reality they're anything but that.
 
Timmay said:
He actually says it's a 7 percent drop for PS4, not 14. It's a 14 percent jump for Xbox One. I have no idea how factual his numbers are. I just assumed he saw the results. You're saying it's a bad assumption and he's just guessing? If so it's weird for him to be so specific.
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This is the same thing. His numbers are estimates based on numbers he attains from retailers. He is always above or below the actual figures. That's where the joke "the only job where you can be as wrong as pachter is the weather man." His estimates aren't gospel.
 
Aquamarine said:
I receive Pachter's prediction estimates directly.

I know EXACTLY what Pachter does, and what I said above is his process.


He has the full set of NPD data and mixes his knowledge of previous numbers with intuition and a small sampling of channel checks from a variety of retailers.

However, Pachter is an unreliable source. His numbers have significantly differed from NPD (the definitive source of real-world retail data) on numerous occasions.

Sometimes he's close, sometimes he's far apart. But he's not definitive. As I said, some GAFfers are routinely better than him at predicting NPD numbers.

And that stupid article you read is incredibly misleading...it's treating Pachter's PREDICTIONS like they're the word of god when in reality they're anything but that.
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So Pachter is just semi-clueless and Polygon is completely dishonest? At least as far as this article is concerned. I guess I won't take them seriously anymore because they presented his numbers as straight up fact. They should know better.
 
Road said:
Well, November and December are the most important. Microsoft is going to go crazy on Black Friday, I can easily see XBO + 4 games + $100 Live credit for $399, maybe even an XBO for $299, if things get desperate enough.

Sony should be properly ready with plentiful stock and very tempting deals because the holiday period involves more impulse buying and less rational thinking compared to the other months of the year. Even the Xbox managed to beat the PS2 once during Nov+Dec 2004. If you blink, you lose.

But let's not rush time, it is already flying as it is. We still got 3 NPD months before November.
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Didn't halo 2 come out in November 04?
 
Timmay said:
So Pachter is just semi-clueless and Polygon is completely dishonest? At least as far as this article is concerned. I guess I won't take them seriously anymore because they presented his numbers as straight up fact. They should know better.
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Holy fuck at that Polygon article.

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What a load of garbage.


"His numbers"

"PlayStation 4 sold"

Give me a break.
 
Timmay said:
You can see why someone like myself that doesn't know any better would take it as fact.
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It's a recurring problem with mainstream reporting of video game sales.

This article is almost as bad as those stupid articles that take Chartzzzz predictions as "sales numbers" as well.

So much misinformation out there. I don't blame you for getting misled, but I highly advise you to steer clear of anything Polygon says / the mainstream media says sales-wise in the future. Stick to GAF and ask questions.
 
Aquamarine said:
X3Xm18A.png



I bet Microsoft has contacted all the major retailers and determined that August sales are less than optimal.

So when NPD comes out with confirmed numbers...look forward to seeing more non-statements and deflection. And to think, Microsoft was once so diligent in boasting PR every month...
Click to expand...

Smh Greenberg
 
I like Colin personally, and he helped me a ton with my start doing analysis. However he can write some really daft pieces sometimes. :)
 
Aquamarine said:
Holy fuck at that Polygon article.

UXgPHNr.png


YJjiZJm.png


What a load of garbage.


"His numbers"

"PlayStation 4 sold"

Give me a break.
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Wow.... That definitely reads as if they are claiming factual data not estimates. DO they even say estimate in the article at all or is that the whole article? I refuse to give them any clicks. If that's the whole article that's just straight up petty and deceitful.
 
RexNovis said:
Wow.... That definitely reads as if they are claiming factual data not estimates. DO they even say estimate in the article at all or is that the whole article? I refuse to give them any clicks. If that's the whole article that's just straight up petty and deceitful.
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That's the whole article.
 
WhiskerFrisker said:
Well, it will most certainly be an interesting month that's for sure.
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I find it interesting how sales threads have warped the meaning of interesting^^ PS4 wins September. Nothing too surprising nor interesting about that^^ I am of course curious about November and December, but I am under no illusion that Xbox One (the same on that lost march with free game and retailers' discount) will magical become market leader. What WILL be interesting is how (or even if) Sony fires back come black Friday with bundles of their own... and for less than $500...
 
RexNovis said:
Wow.... That definitely reads as if they are claiming factual data not estimates. DO they even say estimate in the article at all or is that the whole article? I refuse to give them any clicks. If that's the whole article that's just straight up petty and deceitful.
Click to expand...
It says estimates in the first sentence of the second paragraph. Quite hidden, but it's there.
 
RexNovis said:
Wow.... That definitely reads as if they are claiming factual data not estimates.
Click to expand...

As mentioned, websites have off and on reported Pachter/Wedbush's predictions as actual sales numerous times over the years. If you follow NPD sales for a while, it just becomes old hat. And it's not limited to Pachter/Webush predictions. VGC, Cowen and Company, even analyst predictions going years into the future get taken with way too much weight.
 
Aquamarine said:
That's the whole article.
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More like a misleading PR blurb than an article then. Yeesh.

donny2112 said:
As mentioned, websites have off and on reported Pachter/Wedbush's predictions as actual sales numerous times over the years. If you follow NPD sales for a while, it just becomes old hat. And it's not limited to Pachter/Webush predictions. VGC, Cowen and Company, even analyst predictions going years into the future get taken with way too much weight.
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I don't really read much sales coverage by games media so this is pretty much the frist I'm seeing misleading coverage outside the horrid PR schpiel we've received from the companies in question. SO this is just accepted now? People don't call BS on them or anything?

Ty4on said:
It says estimates in the first sentence of the second paragraph. Quite hidden, but it's there.
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Wow indeed it does how did I not see that reading through it the first time. O_o Been having trouble sleeping thanks to Diablo and anticipation for Destiny. I guess I'm more tired than I thought I was.
 
RexNovis said:
Wow indeed it does how did I not see that reading through it the first time. O_o Been having trouble sleeping thanks to Diablo and anticipation for Destiny. I guess I'm more tired than I thought I was.
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I ironically wrote that from bed as I have trouble falling asleep :P

I accidentally skim through a ton of stuff as well. Guess it's a side effect of reading a lot of noise and trying to find the signal.
 
Road said:
Well, November and December are the most important. Microsoft is going to go crazy on Black Friday, I can easily see XBO + 4 games + $100 Live credit for $399, maybe even an XBO for $299, if things get desperate enough.

Sony should be properly ready with plentiful stock and very tempting deals because the holiday period involves more impulse buying and less rational thinking compared to the other months of the year. Even the Xbox managed to beat the PS2 once during Nov+Dec 2004. If you blink, you lose.

But let's not rush time, it is already flying as it is. We still got 3 NPD months before November.
Click to expand...

Just throw in one for free for each bottle of mountain Dew sold, you would make more profit that way...
 
Since it closes tomorrow will it include one day of Destiny sales, or does it close tonight at midnight technically the 9th?
 
Hm, was just looking at Rayman Legends' sales vs. Origins. Legends initially did sell a little bit better than Origins in its opening month (70K vs. 50K). However, I assume they spent more money on Legends and were expecting a lot more sales. Did Origins just have very good legs or something?
 
Aquamarine said:
And to think, Microsoft was once so diligent in boasting PR every month...
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Yeah, Microsoft did enjoy rubbing the success in everyone's face last gen, whereas Sony took all that egg they got on their face and still haven't forgotten it one bit because they still don't report their NPD numbers anymore either even though they're winning like shit and could be rubbing it in, right?
 
Aquamarine said:
Holy fuck at that Polygon article.

What a load of garbage.


"His numbers"

"PlayStation 4 sold"

Give me a break.
Click to expand...

Ugh this is getting into chartz territory.

Trust me said:
I find it interesting how sales threads have warped the meaning of interesting^^ PS4 wins September. Nothing too surprising nor interesting about that^^ I am of course curious about November and December, but I am under no illusion that Xbox One (the same on that lost march with free game and retailers' discount) will magical become market leader. What WILL be interesting is how (or even if) Sony fires back come black Friday with bundles of their own... and for less than $500...
Click to expand...

Absolute sales are more important to the industry than relative rankings

It will be interesting to see the actual numerical sales for PS4 in September because it's important to the industry that's affected by overall hardware sales and install bases
 
ZSaberLink said:
Hm, was just looking at Rayman Legends' sales vs. Origins. Legends initially did sell a little bit better than Origins in its opening month (70K vs. 50K). However, I assume they spent more money on Legends and were expecting a lot more sales. Did Origins just have very good legs or something?
Click to expand...

Rayman will win npd.
 
RexNovis said:
I don't really read much sales coverage by games media so this is pretty much the frist I'm seeing misleading coverage outside the horrid PR schpiel we've received from the companies in question. SO this is just accepted now? People don't call BS on them or anything?
Click to expand...

The problem is that video game sales tracking is such a niche thing, and GAF really is the center of proper sales discussion.

While it creates great headlines, the nuances and methodologies of retail sales tracking are often lost in the noise.

So when you have some source, whether it's Pachter or Chartzzzz, and they give out numbers, your first intuition is "Oh! These are numbers, so they must be trustworthy!" You know, having the assumption of validity instead of thoroughly researching the data points.

The vast, vast majority of their readers will just look at their headline and the article and nod complacently because again, everyone's just assuming that the released number is an actual number.

Hundreds of sites, journalists, and even some analysts disseminate incorrect or mislabeled data because of this issue.


What we really need is a Sales-Age GAFfer composing these articles. I would love to write an article for Polygon that clarifies the exact methodology behind these numbers.

I know that, for example, GAFfer jvm has written some great sales-related articles for Gamasutra, but he's just one knowledgeable person in a sea of ignorance.
 
TI82 said:
Since it closes tomorrow will it include one day of Destiny sales, or does it close tonight at midnight technically the 9th?
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Why would it close tomorrow (if by it, you mean the hardware predictions thing)? Isn't it supposed to last till around the 12th/13th?
 
Trust me said:
I find it interesting how sales threads have warped the meaning of interesting^^ PS4 wins September. Nothing too surprising nor interesting about that^^ I am of course curious about November and December, but I am under no illusion that Xbox One (the same on that lost march with free game and retailers' discount) will magical become market leader. What WILL be interesting is how (or even if) Sony fires back come black Friday with bundles of their own... and for less than $500...
Click to expand...
I didn't mean that comment as Microsoft winning if that's what you're implying.

Off topic: I like your username. I use that line a lot.
 
TI82 said:
Since it closes tomorrow will it include one day of Destiny sales, or does it close tonight at midnight technically the 9th?
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El-Pistolero said:
Why would it close tomorrow (if by it, you mean the hardware predictions thing)? Isn't it supposed to last till around the 12th/13th?
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As per OP, you can post predictions/change your posted predictions until 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, September 9th, so tomorrow

NPD tracking period for August is until August 30th so it will in no way cover any of Destiny's sales

donny2112 said:
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, September 9th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: August 3-30, 2014 (4 weeks, July was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: Thursday, September 11th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)
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