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[Gator86]

Exactly. Amazing how there are some in this thread who are actively frightened at the potential Microsoft inching closer to monthly sales parity. It's as if people think competition is a bad thing, truly baffling.

Console sales parity is not competition. Jesus christ. People should should have to take a quiz on basic economics to post here.

 

[hawk2025]

Exactly. Amazing how there are some in this thread who are actively frightened at the potential Microsoft inching closer to monthly sales parity. It's as if people think competition is a bad thing, truly baffling.

Baffling is the misguided idea that equal market shares are equivalent to stronger competition.


Jean Tirole just won the Nobel in Economics today. Look up his work in concentrated markets.

 

[BumRush]

He has the PS4 at less then last month, despite the extra week, the massive Destiny launch and the fact that Sony already said it was their best month since Christmas. Is this a fake post or something?

This. I'm not sure why his ps4 and xb1 figures are this low...

 

[Salex_]

As I said, I am a Sony loyalist, but I can't help but feel they are squandering their momentum.

1. Lower quality Plus content (I have enjoyed some of those games, but an ossasional larger market game would help satisfy a larger player base and make the service more desirable, Knack is selling for sub 20 now, just give it already)

Lower quality? Putting Knack on PS+ to make it more desirable? I'd rather see quality games like Velocity X2, Spelunky, and Dust on PS+ every month even if they aren't printed on a disc.

 

[iamvin22]

This. I'm not sure why his ps4 and xb1 figures are this low...

let them dream

 

[Fdkn]

how many times needs him to be wrong so we stop caring about what he says? at this point even banned sites get closer to reality

 

[Shin-Ra]

7. Poor communicating by Sony is building resentment. How is that big OS update coming they announced for Sept.

Somebody would do this, go on the internet and make things up?

 

[TyrantII]

someone leaked shipped numbers?

 

[Biker19]

Console sales parity is not competition. Jesus christ. People should have to take a quiz on basic economics to post here.

Baffling is the misguided idea that equal market shares are equivalent to stronger competition.

I agree. And we had this discussion plenty of times in the past about it.

As a matter of fact, I think I'll dig up Y2Kev's posts about the subject:

Link 1.

Link 2.

 

[DWinn7]

As I said, I am a Sony loyalist, but I can't help but feel they are squandering their momentum.


4. Network performance is generally complete shit for new big games. Maybe this is the developers fault, but the service is down enough in other ways to make me think it is at least partially their fault. At the very least insist new crap is not going to get released in a way to crap the service.

7. Poor communicating by Sony is building resentment. How is that big OS update coming they announced for Sept. Don't even have the updated list of features still and we are half way to feking November.

I can't help but feel they are becoming PS3 SONY again where they are acting like the pretty girl who can't lose the prome Queen vote.

Basically. I'm not even pressed about the major update because the features they don't add will be addressed this time next year lol. That's how slow they are with updates in comparison to MS

 

[SwiftDeath]

someone leaked shipped numbers?

No, Pachter made his predictions [estimations, guesses] for September's NPD numbers. They are in no way guaranteed numbers

 

[Aquamarine]

someone leaked shipped numbers?

No. Some random wannabe analyst is making up numbers.

That's why I don't like when people make threads about his predictions...because it gives the impression that his predictions actually mean something.

 

[mdubs]

Console sales parity is not competition. Jesus christ. People should should have to take a quiz on basic economics to post here.

Feel free to enlighten us then. I fail to see how it isn't, if the sales numbers are close, you would think they will try to increase the value proposition in terms of exclusives games or other services to overtake their competitor. If the sales aren't close then this pressure is removed.

And yes I've read y2kev's post on this and I still see it this way.

 

[Neuromancer]

Aquamarine calling out Pachter... Things are getting heated in here lol

 

[Dragon]

Feel free to enlighten us then. I fail to see how it isn't, if the sales numbers are close, you would think they will try to increase the value proposition in terms of exclusives games or other services to overtake their competitor. If the sales aren't close then this pressure is removed.

And yes I've read y2kev's post on this and I still see it this way.

Hence why Apple has stopped trying obviously. Your posts are under the assumption the only goal for companies is to be best in a category. Which is obviously false just by looking at it.

 

[krypt0nian]

Feel free to enlighten us then. I fail to see how it isn't, if the sales numbers are close, you would think they will try to increase the value proposition in terms of exclusives games or other services to overtake their competitor. If the sales aren't close then this pressure is removed.

And yes I've read y2kev's post on this and I still see it this way.

Then you are willfully ignorant, and there's no hope.

 

[m@cross]

Lower quality? Putting Knack on PS+ to make it more desirable? I'd rather see quality games like Velocity X2, Spelunky, and Dust on PS+ every month even if they aren't printed on a disc.

Probably a poor choice in words here. Plenty of good indie games from plus, but no larger games at all. At this point a number of early retail games are sub 20 dollars, throwing one in here or there would help the general image of the service.

 

[Biker19]

Feel free to enlighten us then. I fail to see how it isn't, if the sales numbers are close, you would think they will try to increase the value proposition in terms of exclusives games or other services to overtake their competitor. If the sales aren't close then this pressure is removed.

And yes I've read y2kev's post on this and I still see it this way.

Like I said earlier, bringing out bundles, etc. when you're doing so well presents weakness.

You're naive to believe that having an equal amount of sales = stronger competition. A good product like the PS4 will always produce great numbers. No consumer should feel sorry for a struggling product like Xbox One & go, "Hey guys, maybe we should all buy Xbox One's to feel sorry for Microsoft!". No consumer does that.

You put out a decent, attractive product, & consumers will flock to it & buy the product in droves. You put out a awful, unappealing product, & consumers will most likely ignore them. That's the way it has always been with electronic products since the beginning of time.

 

[krypt0nian]

Probably a poor choice in words here. Plenty of good indie games from plus, but no larger games at all. At this point a number of early retail games are sub 20 dollars, throwing one in here or there would help the general image of the service.

I'd still rather have what we've gotten than the larger games you think we'd get. PS+ has been incredible.

 

[hawk2025]

Feel free to enlighten us then. I fail to see how it isn't, if the sales numbers are close, you would think they will try to increase the value proposition in terms of exclusives games or other services to overtake their competitor. If the sales aren't close then this pressure is removed.

And yes I've read y2kev's post on this and I still see it this way.

The market is inherently dynamic in a platform-based market with investment costs.

If all firms are rewarded with equal marketshare regardless of the product offered, the incentive to invest and develop better products actually decreases.

The Herfindahl Index train of thought you are using largely only works for static markets with no dynamic costs and no durable goods.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herfindahl_index

 

[Iced_Eagle]

People are running with this news as fact... lol

http://youtu.be/HyO18lIDKOI?t=1m45s

He starts off by saying "according to an analyst" and "if that is true"... Hardly him saying it's a truth-fact.

 

[SykoTech]

At this point, I think Pachter knows he's trolling...

Yeah, dude is pretty self aware these days.

 

[mdubs]

The market is inherently dynamic in a platform-based market with investment costs.

If all firms are rewarded with equal marketshare regardless of the product offered, the incentive to invest and develop better products actually decreases.

The Herfindahl Index train of thought you are using largely only works for static markets with no dynamic costs and no durable goods.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herfindahl_index

Thank you, this is a good explanation and what I would like to read.

Then you are willfully ignorant, and there's no hope.

Thank you for this intelligent and insightful contribution

 

[Aliquidmeri]

I wonder if Pachter calls up his paying clients and is like "lol did you see what I tweeted? I'll send you the GAF thread latter."

 

[Radec]

Seems like he got affected by the Phil Spencer effect as well as some people here.

lol

 

[m@cross]

The market is inherently dynamic in a platform-based market with investment costs.

If all firms are rewarded with equal marketshare regardless of the product offered, the incentive to invest and develop better products actually decreases.

The Herfindahl Index train of thought you are using largely only works for static markets with no dynamic costs and no durable goods.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herfindahl_index

So PS4 kicking ass = better deals from MS on XB1 and positive policy changes, but XB1 cutting into that gap won't influence Sony to do the same thing?

 

[toddhunter]

As a Sony fan, I actually hope this is true. I feel like they are taking their lead for granted and need a swift kick in the ass to correct course.

I don't think they are taking anything for granted. Sony made lots of the right moves with the PS4, but it doesn't change the fact that the company as a whole is still a mess.

That is something that is going to take time to work itself out, then Sony can capitalise on their lead. I'm sure they would like to have done more, but they can't exactly throw money around like the good old days.

 

[hawk2025]

So PS4 kicking ass = better deals from MS on XB1 and positive policy changes, but XB1 cutting into that gap won't influence Sony to do the same thing?

That's not what I said.

 

[SeventhSon]

Aquamarine calling out Pachter... Things are getting heated in here lol

 

[twobear]

thankfully this seems overwhelmingly unlikely

 

[flkraven]

If by some miracle Pachter is correct, what does this say about the value of those exclusive co-marketing deals?

 

[Hawk269]

So PS4 kicking ass = better deals from MS on XB1 and positive policy changes, but XB1 cutting into that gap won't influence Sony to do the same thing?

Sony can do the same if they want, but it depends on what the Margin factor is for them. As the leading platform, they have the ability to sit and wait if they want. Even if MS outdoes them for September, in the grand scheme of things it does little to hurt Sony, outside of fanboys being butt hurt that Xbox One outsold the PS4 for 1 month.

I don't think Sony will even blink an eye if it turns out to be true. I would think Sony would want to continue to maximize it's profits from the hardware as much and long as they can. If the Xbox One were to do this every month and during the holidays, then maybe Sony will react next year.

 

[Krakn3Dfx]

Did he put this information in the NPD predictions thread?

You can't win if you don't play, Michael.

 

[stryke]

Feel free to enlighten us then. I fail to see how it isn't, if the sales numbers are close, you would think they will try to increase the value proposition in terms of exclusives games or other services to overtake their competitor. If the sales aren't close then this pressure is removed.

And yes I've read y2kev's post on this and I still see it this way.

Do you buy Sharp tvs as well as Samsungs to keep them on their toes?
Do you buy AMD cards as well as Nvidia cards to keep them humble?
Do you buy Mazdas/Hondas/Mitsubishis/etc to give each other competition?
Do you buy an iphone as well as an Android just so that Google doesn't get cocky?

If you espouse sales parity as a means of competition, then you must be buying every brand of product you use then.

 

[On Demand]

I kind of think that free Destiny [on Xbox One] was better than [paying] for Destiny on PS4,” Pacther told GamesBeat. He also noted the appeal of the Madden bundle. “That’s pretty compelling.”

You might think so, doesn't mean all consumers will. Was it a good deal? Yes. But a week is not enough to surpass the PS4 for the entire month.

 

[Vilam]

Haha, that's hilarious. I don't rail on Patcher much, but he's out of his damn mind on that one.

 

[m@cross]

Sony can do the same if they want, but it depends on what the Margin factor is for them. As the leading platform, they have the ability to sit and wait if they want. Even if MS outdoes them for September, in the grand scheme of things it does little to hurt Sony, outside of fanboys being butt hurt that Xbox One outsold the PS4 for 1 month.

I don't think Sony will even blink an eye if it turns out to be true. I would think Sony would want to continue to maximize it's profits from the hardware as much and long as they can. If the Xbox One were to do this every month and during the holidays, then maybe Sony will react next year.

Very true, but if it becomes a trend and they wait to long to react, momentum might make reaction meaningless.

 

[krypt0nian]

Thank you for this intelligent and insightful contribution

Says the guy who couldn't understand kev's posts.

 

[J3ffro]

I guess that's one way to get exposure - yell crazy shit from the rooftops. People will look up.

 

[Biker19]

Do you buy Sharp tvs as well as Samsungs to keep them on their toes?
Do you buy AMD cards as well as Nvidia cards to keep them humble?
Do you buy Mazdas/Hondas/Mitsubishis/etc to give each other competition?
Do you buy an iphone as well as an Android just so that Google doesn't get cocky?

If you espouse sales parity as a means of competition, then you must be buying every brand of product you use then.

That's exactly what I said not too long ago right here.

See, you get it.

 

[Guardian Monkey]

That's exactly what I said not too long ago right here.

See, you get it.

Wtf. What your saying goes completely against economy theory but ok.

 

[cHinzo]

Would be funny if he ends up being right.

 

[Cole Slaw]

Do you buy Sharp tvs as well as Samsungs to keep them on their toes?
Do you buy AMD cards as well as Nvidia cards to keep them humble?
Do you buy Mazdas/Hondas/Mitsubishis/etc to give each other competition?
Do you buy an iphone as well as an Android just so that Google doesn't get cocky?

If you espouse sales parity as a means of competition, then you must be buying every brand of product you use then.

This post is so good.

 

[ForsakenLotus]

If Pachter is correct, I'll eat a crow and hat sandwich with an extra dose of salt.

 

[CLEEK]

No. Some random wannabe analyst is making up numbers.

That's why I don't like when people make threads about his predictions...because it gives the impression that his predictions actually mean something.

The assumption is always that someone of Patcher's high profile and profession would have the networking to get early sale figures from retailers and even platform holders. That he's not making these predictions in a vacuum.

But if you look at his success rate in getting accurate predictions, that seems to never be the case. His only source is his own bottom.

 

[Rogue_Ledr]

So that confirms that PS4 won. Seriously, if he's right then I don't even

If hes right, its time to get down into the bomb shelter.

 

[Spottiettiedop]

The assumption is always that someone of Patcher's high profile and profession would have the networking to get early sale figures from retailers and even platform holders. That he's not making these predictions in a vacuum.

But if you look at his success rate in getting accurate predictions, that seems to never be the case. His only source is his own bottom.

What is his success rate?

 

[goomba]

Has the xbone even outsold the worldwide wiiu ltd yet?

 

[MavFan619]

No. Some random wannabe analyst is making up numbers.

That's why I don't like when people make threads about his predictions...because it gives the impression that his predictions actually mean something.

Yoooo damnnn pack it up Pachter.

 

[Hawk269]

Very true, but if it becomes a trend and they wait to long to react, momentum might make reaction meaningless.

I agree, but Sony has such a good lead that they have that ability as the market leader to dictate what they want to do at their own timetable. It would take MS selling an absurd amount of more consoles for Sony to do a knee-jerk reaction.

You also have to remember that a lot of the sold units MS was able to sell also contained a free copy of Forza 5 in addition to another free game, so at retail that is $120 of software at face value, obviously a lot less factoring in that Forza 5 is a download code.

I really think if MS did outsell them in September, I could see Sony execs shrugging their shoulders and saying, "who gives a shit, it is one month and we still are kicking their ass in every territory except China and once we launch in China we will kick their ass there too.".