He shouldn't be. Mario characters are pretty common and likely will continue to be so. Basically i'm expecting:
-Bowser, Toon Link and Shiek will be "commons"
-King Dedede, Mega Man and Sonic will be "uncommons"
-Ike be the lone "rare"
The TRU pic that was posted appeared to have 8 in it (7 on shelf, plus another reserved) and who knows how many before. Compound that on a store by store basis, and possibly more of them, and I'm expecting good amount of stock for most of the exclusives for the first week or so. That could change once we get a better understanding of how many stores will get in, but it's probably safe to say they'll be uncommon to rare as we go through February.
tl;dr- SOME TRU stores put out Wave 3 early, and only Bowser, Shiek and Toon Link (and Lucario) which seems to be a safe bet to finally confirm that Wave 3 will be broken into miniwaves.
Wave 3a= Store Exclusives (Jan 30/Feb 1)
Wave 3b= Bowser, Shiek, Toon Link (Feb 6)
Wave 3c =Sonic (Feb 13)
Wave 3d = Ike, Mega Man, Dedede (Feb 20)
Although seems like those dates are varying by retailer. Perhaps done to spread the wealth around so people buy from different ones to avoid stock problems.