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[Plinko]

Are you saying Bayonetta.... has legs?

You made me look up what units make a top 10 on Wii U in January. Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesh.

Let's see:

Mario Kart 8
Bayonetta 2
Smash Bros
Captain Toad
Just Dance
Mario 3D World
Hyrule Warriors?
Lego Batman 3?

Hmmm...what else...

Skylanders? Wind Waker?

 

[Busaiku]

How can we be so sure Gamecube and X-Box didn't sell more than Ouya.

 

[allan-bh]

10,000! which, if you believe it or not, if I'm recalling correctly, slightly above-average for a non-holiday month

Somehow is impressive that Bayonetta 2 sold more than 10k in january.

I thought sales would be dead at this point.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Let's see:

Mario Kart 8
Bayonetta 2
Smash Bros
Captain Toad
Just Dance
Mario 3D World
Hyrule Warriors?
Lego Batman 3?

Add DK, Infinity, Remix, Waker, lose Lego & World

 

[John Harker]

Somehow is impressive that Bayonetta 2 sold more than 10k in january.

I thought sales would be dead at this point.

well it hasn't hit 150k yet, but it's close... so not sure how that shapes your opinion

 

[Alebrije]

when do people expect ps4 to blow past 20 million

I guess by june thanks to Bloodborne and the order

 

[DjRalford]

18.4 Mil PS4's sold through WW in 14 months is astonishing

 

[Final Verdict]

For sales of retail physical games, yes this seems to be correct. We don't know overall sales across all game types of digital.

Just curious, why are you and other people sugesting PS4 might have higher digital sales in the US?
Didn't a lot of the early adopters who jumped ship to PS4 get it because they didn't wan't to go digital, and feared MS might later go back to their always online ideas?

Did Sony announce that their PSN sales spiked?
(I mean, I would expect digital to reflect physical in terms of ratio, but who knows?)

 

[DarthWalden]

For sales of retail physical games, yes this seems to be correct. We don't know overall sales across all game types of digital.

Wouldn't digital be roughly the same as physical in terms of gap%?

 

[Final Verdict]

well it hasn't hit 150k yet, but it's close... so not sure how that shapes your opinion

Could you tell us how SSO is doing?
Is it dead, or still selling steady?

I think lifetime was like 280k in Dec.
Is it close to the 300k mark?

 

[allan-bh]

well it hasn't hit 150k yet, but it's close... so not sure how that shapes your opinion

Bad sales, but better legs than I expected.

 

[ghibli99]

Damn... as a Nintendo fan (who owns everything except an XBO), perhaps ignorance is bliss. I've enjoyed more games on the Wii U than any other console over the past year+, but it's just insane how outclassed it is numbers-wise.

 

[vinnygambini]

Are you saying Bayonetta.... has legs?

Toad has smaller legs and still out-managed to outsell Bayonetta's long legs.

It's funny how the world works.

 

[John Harker]

Could you tell us how SSO is doing?
Is it dead, or still selling steady?

I think lifetime was like 280k in Dec.
Is it close to the 300k mark?

I'll tackle this one since I really enjoy the game... but no, unfortunately, it had a massive drop of in Jan. It's like 8-9k short.

 

[allan-bh]

Could you tell us how SSO is doing?
Is it dead, or still selling steady?

I think lifetime was like 280k in Dec.
Is it close to the 300k mark?

280k is only standalone version. We never had any info about white console bundle sales.

 

[Terbinator]

I'll tackle this one since I really enjoy the game... but no, unfortunately, it had a massive drop of in Jan. It's like 8-9k short.

Christ, probably less than 500K WW? :| Crazy how poorly that and FH2 did.

 

[On Demand]

Any individual top ten? The combined is useless and only there to make everything look good.

 

[Special C]

For sales of retail physical games, yes this seems to be correct. We don't know overall sales across all game types of digital.

I would assume that the digital sales parallel with physical pretty well. However it's conceivable that Xbone could have sold more software considering the gap is pretty small.

 

[John Harker]

Christ, probably less than 500K WW? :| Crazy how poorly that and FH2 did.

ya know, I keep forgetting FH2 was on Xbox 360 too.
I suppose when you look at them both, it's not doing that poorly. It had a good December after a weak debut. In my opinion of course.

 

[Salex_]

Damn... as a Nintendo fan (who owns everything except an XBO), perhaps ignorance is bliss. I've enjoyed more games on the Wii U than any other console over the past year+, but it's just insane how outclassed it is numbers-wise.

When you realize the amount of games and genres the Wii U isn't getting, it's not hard to understand. The chances of appealing to a massive audience with specific tastes with a dozen or so games in a year is slim.

Sports, FPS, Western RPGs, Open world games, fighting games, etc are all either not there or has little to no options. You also have to consider the importance of online gaming and people wanting to play with their friends.

 

[Mpl90]

Bayonetta 2 selling other 10,000 in January? Heh, this means lower than 145,000 (probably slightly lower) at retail and (going just by October digital sales) slightly lower than 152,000 in total. That's assuming it didn't sell digital units at all in Nov-Dec-Jan, though (I mean, digital sales have probably been VERY low but not zero...I hope :lol ).

So, given what said one month ago, Bayonetta 2 sold in 4 months more than what the PS3 version of the first Bayonetta did in 18 months (360 version did 200k, while PS3 did 150k). So far, from what I've seen, the game's price hasn't decreased yet that much on Amazon.com, so...it seems it's having some legs, after all.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Just curious, why are you and other people sugesting PS4 might have higher digital sales in the US?

That's not quite what's being said. A sample of titles have had slightly higher digital splits on PS4 than Xone.

The difference in packaged SW between the two in Jan is <5%. Assuming Digital share of total has been slightly stronger on PS4 for those small sample of titles some in the thread know about, we might be looking at a dead heat in overall across titles with packaged & digital components.

Truth is no one knows because a full data set does not exist.

 

[ZhugeEX]

The REAL story is how OUYA is dominanting the USA market~

That should be in the thread title, who the hell cares about Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft anyway.

 

[vinnygambini]

Just curious, how is Pokemon XY doing? Has it collapsed since Omega Ruby?

 

[GifGafIsTheBestGaf]

18.4 Mil PS4's sold through WW in 14 months is astonishing

people keep chipping at this number, did something change when Kaz announced the 18.5M back in january?

 

[Final Verdict]

I'll tackle this one since I really enjoy the game... but no, unfortunately, it had a massive drop of in Jan. It's like 8-9k short.

280k is only standalone version. We never had any info about white console bundle sales.

Thanks!
I really enjoyed it too (which it why I worry about sales because I would love to see either a sequel, or spiritual successor for it someday.

That's not quite what's being said. A sample of titles have had slightly higher digital splits on PS4 than Xone.

The difference in packaged SW between the two in Jan is <5%. Assuming Digital share of total has been slightly stronger on PS4 for those small sample of titles some in the thread know about, we might be looking at a dead heat in overall across titles with packaged & digital components.

Truth is no one knows because a full data set does not exist.

Ohh, ok thanks.
I was just confused where the info was coming from or if it was just speculation.

Its nice to see that digital is really taking off on PS4, though I do find it really surprising that X1 was so close in retail sales.
I guess that it is maintaining it's high tie ratio even after the holidays.

Come to think of it, do you know how the PS4/X1's tie ratios compare to last generation?
It seems they are doing good, but looking at it in a vacuum does no good..

 

[Elandyll]

I guess by june thanks to Bloodborne and the order

??

With the very basic premise of the US representing around 33% of the PS4 sales, the WW sales of PS4s in January were around 600k (rough estimate).

With the relatively high profile releases in February, it is very likely that the PS4 will blow past 20m units by mid March.

 

[N.Domixis]

So whats the total ps4 xbox gap at now?

 

[ZhugeEX]

So whats the total ps4 xbox gap at now?

7-10k

Spoiler

More than 500k, approaching 600k

 

[RBK]

So whats the total ps4 xbox gap at now?

Around 500k is my guess.

Gap was less than 500k after December NPD.

 

[N.Domixis]

7-10k

Spoiler

More than 500k, approaching 600k

It may hit 600k after this month then,

 

[Aquamarine]

Anyone a Skylanders fan or an ATVI shareholder?

Because you're not going to like this.


Skylanders is down -6% YOY in January and -19% YOY LTD.


Revenue is much worse, with a massive -20% YOY decline in January.



This is the FOURTH consecutive month that Skylanders has been down YOY (aka. since launch).

Sell-through of Skylanders is weak. Like, a good deal below 100K weak.

I know Activision makes up for it in toy sales...but still...looking at the numbers isn't giving me much hope for ATVI's growth potential with the franchise.

I wonder at what point they're just going to cut it off. We all know they have a propensity to axe declining franchises (Tony Hawk, Guitar Hero, etc.)

 

[ZhugeEX]

It may hit 600k after this month then,

Yep, based on projected data the gap should continue to increase at a steady rate but it really is unknown if the Xbox One at $349 will have a big impact on sales.

 

[Opiate]

Anyone a Skylanders fan or an ATVI shareholder?

Because you're not going to like this.


Skylanders is down -6% YOY in January and -19% YOY LTD.


Revenue is much worse, with a massive -20% YOY decline in January.



This is the FOURTH consecutive month that Skylanders has been down YOY (aka. since launch).

Sell-through of Skylanders is weak. Like, a good deal below 100K weak.

I know Activision makes up for it in toy sales...but still...looking at the numbers isn't giving me much hope for ATVI's growth potential with the franchise.

I wonder at what point they're just going to cut it off. We all know they have a propensity to axe declining franchises (Tony Hawk, Guitar Hero, etc.)

It's a franchise that performed best on Nintendo platforms to begin with -- the decline of Nintendo has likely hurt that franchise in the same way that Call of Duty would be hurt if MS/Sony fell apart and only Nintendo remained.

 

[Aquamarine]

It's a franchise that performed best on Nintendo platforms to begin with -- the decline of Nintendo has likely hurt that franchise in the same way that Call of Duty would be hurt if MS/Sony fell apart and only Nintendo remained.

Interesting. That is indeed partially attributable to Skylanders's decline.

But we see similar LTD YOY declines from Call of Duty.

I'm sure we would all agree that the PS4 / XB1 physical retail ecosystems are pretty healthy, all things considered.

And yet, COD is suffering through a -17% cumulative YOY decline from Ghosts (despite a growth January), and a -40% cumulative YOY decline from Black Ops 2.

Of course, you could attribute lower COD sales to higher digital share in the core market, which doesn't really apply to Skylanders.

But it's still points to...what I think is growing market frustration in the stagnation of Activision's core franchises.

Yearly releases are really starting to catch up with them. Part of the reason why Kotick is betting so big on Destiny.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Come to think of it, do you know how the PS4/X1's tie ratios compare to last generation?
It seems they are doing good, but looking at it in a vacuum does no good..

Meh... tough to do the comparison since last time it was ALL packaged, and this time many games are being bought digitally. So yeah, I believe attach is still doing very well, but without digital it's very tough to say how well.

PS3 in '07 was high 3's, X360 in '06 was mid 4's. Last year both new ones were in low 3's.

Hardware is well ahead of last gen's pace, NPD said in their statement +60%.

Software pricing was just slightly lower for the new ones in year 2 versus last gen.

 

[Opiate]

Interesting. That is indeed partially attributable to Skylanders's decline.

But we see similar LTD YOY declines from Call of Duty.

I'm sure we would all agree that the PS4 / XB1 physical retail ecosystems are pretty healthy, all things considered.

And yet, COD is suffering through a -17% cumulative YOY decline from Ghosts (despite a growth January), and a -40% cumulative YOY decline from Black Ops 2.

Of course, you could attribute lower COD sales to higher digital share in the core market, which doesn't really apply to Skylanders.

But it's still points to...what I think is growing market frustration in the stagnation of Activision's core franchises.

Yearly releases are really starting to catch up with them. Part of the reason why Kotick is betting so big on Destiny.

Yes, I was definitely not suggesting that every franchise decline for any company is attributable to Nintendo's struggles, just to be clear.

But it happens more often than people realize. UDraw was a big hit on Wii, then tanked so badly on PS3/360 that it was significantly responsible for the dissolution of THQ, for instance. There is clearly a type of game that sells best on Nintendo's systems. It's unfortunate for Nintendo (and probably not just a coincidence) that so few major, well known third party developers focus on these types of games.

 

[John Harker]

But it's still points to...what I think is growing market frustration in the stagnation of Activision's core franchises.

Yearly releases are really starting to catch up with them. Part of the reason why Kotick is betting so big on Destiny.

I don't think that's the primary culprit.
Competition has caught up. "FPS" as a genre has never been more popular. If CoD was still the only big player in the market, I would not expect to see such declines.

But games like Battlefield and Far Cry and even Titanfall and Destiny have redefine what an FPS can be, with the production values and marketing budgets to compete whereas CoD had that mountain to itself in the past.

Those games have such long retention plans built into them, too, splitting a playerbase.
I don't think annualisation is the #1 cause, in fact I actually think annualisatoin ultimate grows your brand. When managed correctly, you keep people engaged longer and you increase ARPU through various means that you don't even lose revenue off a declining initial sales base.

But anyway. Competition is good. There's so much money to be had there.

 

[Aquamarine]

Yes, I was definitely not suggesting that every franchise decline for any company is attributable to Nintendo's struggles, just to be clear.

But it happens more often than people realize. UDraw was a big hit on Wii, then tanked so badly on PS3/360 that it was significantly responsible for the dissolution of THQ, for instance. There is clearly a type of game that sells best on Nintendo's systems. It's unfortunate for Nintendo (and probably not just a coincidence) that so few major, well known third party developers focus on these types of games.

Indeed.

If we were to look across the isle to the other big competitor (Disney Infinity 2.0), that too is suffering similar relative losses to Skylanders.

Another factor might be the proliferation of Amiibo on Nintendo platforms. As Nintendo burrows their way into the toys-to-life market, that's inevitably going to dilute the market and result in further losses.

So when you compound a continually-declining Nintendo market with franchise fatigue and Amiibos taking up some of the pie, you're going to end up with significant losses.

 

[Aquamarine]

I don't think that's the primary culprit.
Competition has caught up. "FPS" as a genre has never been more popular. If CoD was still the only big player in the market, I would not expect to see such declines.

But games like Battlefield and Far Cry and even Titanfall and Destiny have redefine what an FPS can be, with the production values and marketing budgets to compete whereas CoD had that mountain to itself in the past.

Those games have such long retention plans built into them, too, splitting a playerbase.
I don't think annualisation is the #1 cause, in fact I actually think annualisatoin ultimate grows your brand. When managed correctly, you keep people engaged longer and you increase ARPU through various means that you don't even lose revenue off a declining initial sales base.

But anyway. Competition is good. There's so much money to be had there.

Hmm. Very interesting. Didn't really think of competition all that much. The increased toys-to-life competition and the increased FPS competition seem to go hand-in-hand with each other.

Ultimately it's going to be a mix of things.

Do you think Activision is effectively managing their COD brand? Mismanagement might be another culprit (since you said "when managed correctly," ARPU increases).

If you look at COD AW revenue, it's -21% LTD from Ghosts, a greater relative decrease than units.

 

[The Shogun]

I do expect YoY growth for COD in late 2015 - 2016. Black Ops 3 will help.

After that though? Infinity Ward and Sledgehammers next games? Eh

 

[Fox Mulder]

Christ, probably less than 500K WW? :| Crazy how poorly that and FH2 did.

I bought it digitally, but the first one didn't sell that great either.

 

[Opiate]

I think you could say the same of Halo; that was an explosively growing franchise which stalled in sales and now has begun to decline.

Some of this may be attributable to Bungie leaving, but the sales arc was already in motion before they made their exit. It doesn't mean Bungie is irrelevant, but it probably means the same market forces are at work there: Halo was once the only AAA FPS franchise of any kind, but is now one of many.

 

[Nirolak]

I think you could say the same of Halo; that was an explosively growing franchise which stalled in sales and now has begun to decline.

Some of this may be attributable to Bungie leaving, but the sales arc was already in motion before they made their exit. It doesn't mean Bungie is irrelevant, but it probably means the same market forces are at work there: Halo was once the only AAA FPS franchise of any kind, but is now one of many.

Competitive arena shooters aren't exactly the style du jour in 2015 either.

Bungie shifted their gameplay style toward co-op loot RPG FPS, following in the footsteps of Borderlands, to adapt to the changing market.

 

[Opiate]

Arena shooters aren't exactly the style du jour in 2015 either.

I wonder what percentage of console game sales can now loosely be described as "shooters." I'd include FPS in that (obviously) but also things like Gears of War or Uncharted.

 

[Nirolak]

I wonder what percentage of console game sales can now loosely be described as "shooters." I'd include FPS in that (obviously) but also things like Gears of War or Uncharted.

I guess it depends how far we go.

GTA could be argued as a shooter as well given how it works these days versus the PS2 era.

 

[Opiate]

I guess it depends how far we go.

GTA could be argued as a shooter as well.

Yep, I agree with that. It's certainly on the border, at least.

 

[Opiate]

Was Watch Dogs a shooter? Honest question. Never interested me, don't know anything about it.

 

[Nirolak]

Yep, I agree with that. It's certainly on the border, at least.

It's kind of what has made pure third person shooters harder to sell as well.

As Action-Adventure games and RPGs move more heavily into that arena, people expect "more" out of a third person shooter than just shooting people for eight hours - usually in a linear scripted path - and then having some competitive multiplayer.

Was Watch Dogs a shooter? Honest question. Never interested me, don't know anything about it.

Yes in the sense that the core combat mechanics are third person cover shooting.

You can technically go through the game non-violently or focus more on stealth however.

There's also driving and an open world. It works a lot like GTA in many respects.

 

[theprodigy]

7 posts in a row by 2 mods

ahhhhh

Spoiler

where's Y2Kev we at least need a different mod to break this up