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[ZhugeEX]

Did anyone calculate ratios for

Xbone US+UK vs RotW
PS4 US+UK vs RotW

?

As a rough estimate we can say that PS4 in the UK and USA accounts for around 45% of worldwide sales.

For Xbox One we can say, again as a rough estimate that UK and USA accounts for more than 70% of worldwide sales. (could potentially be lower but I doubt it)

rough estimate. Do not take it as gospel, also please note the "more than" and "around".

 

[Raist]

Did anyone calculate ratios for

Xbone US+UK vs RotW
PS4 US+UK vs RotW

?

Off the top of my head PS4 is something like 40-45%.
Not gonna be easy for the XB1 since we don't really have accurate numbers, but it's cearly going to be >>>50%, since the sold through in the US only as of March is already more than half of shipped WW.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

There isn't a scarcity though is there? You say the Wii U has more games over a longer period - sure - but that means more PS4 games are getting released per month?

Yes, because I do not think it would even be possible to have a console that is still being sold that has less titles released per month than the WiiU.
That's entirely my point.

It's not a long stretch to suggest that people buying the PS4 want those games is it?

No, not at all, but the amount of hardware sales that the PS4 has enjoyed seems at odds with the titles released so far that required a PS4 to play them.

I mean, go and look at the titles released in the first 18 months for the PS3, or hell, the PS2 if you really want to blow your mind.
And neither of those platforms had "Fastest selling launch console ever!" status.

Asking what software is driving those hardware sales - to me - is an entirely legitimate question, because we're not seeing Holy Shit software sales to go with those Holy Shit hardware sales.

 

[Microsoft Chad]

I'm not talking about WiiU hardware sales as anything other than as a corollary as to what a console with a small library and a resultingly small sales looks like.

I'm saying that a console that has been on life support for well over 2 years has a comparably sized library to the industries golden child begs the question; what are the games driving those hardware sales?

Thats not an anti-Sony troll, and it shouldn't have people demanding blood.
The two machines have comparably sized libraries. One sells like shit, the other doesn't.

why?



Its why I linked the source.

No you're not getting it.

Most of those games came from the head start and a bit after that head start ended. Not to mention the Wii U was missing games even before the competition came out to the previous consoles and as well as after that head start ended.

You're making it look like the Wii U had gotten similar support in the same time frame, that's not how it works, especially since both new consoles have a good helping of games not on the Wii U.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

You're making it look like the Wii U had gotten similar support in the same time frame,

No, I'm saying the exact opposite

 

[Microsoft Chad]

As a rough estimate we can say that PS4 in the UK and USA accounts for around 45% of worldwide sales.

For Xbox One we can say, again as a rough estimate that UK and USA accounts for more than 70% of worldwide sales. (could potentially be lower but I doubt it)

rough estimate. Do not take it as gospel, also please note the "more than".

Hmm?

Xbox One is at around what? 14 million shipped?

Sales in the U.S. and UK are 7-8 put together.

That leaves another ~6 milion by other countries, I don't think that's actually 70% in fact, that's much lower.

Same with the PS4, it's at 22 million shipped?

U.S. and UK are 9 million. 9 million out of 22 isn't really 45% either.

Unless you're using another comparison entirely and I misunderstood you.

 

[Microsoft Chad]

No, I'm saying the exact opposite

How? You basically said that you're wondering what games are driving PS4 sales, when it got a bunch of games different than the Wii, and the PS4 got more games than the Wii U in a shorter time frame.

You're whole comment hinges on the fact you're saying the Wii u has similar game numbers around the same time.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Unless you're using another comparison entirely and I misunderstood you.

You're using made up numbers and also comparing sell in to sell through. Don't do that.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

How? You basically said that you're wondering what games are driving PS4 sales, when it got a bunch of games different than the Wii, and the PS4 got more games than the Wii U in a shorter time frame.

You're whole comment hinges on the fact you're saying the Wii u has similar game numbers around the same time.

I'm saying that if a console with zero support has roughly the same amount of titles as a console with all of the supports then asking "where are all the games?" is a really obvious question.
Certainly not a question that people should be mortally offended by people asking.

 

[xxracerxx]

I'm saying that if a console with zero support has roughly the same amount of titles as a console with all of the supports then asking "where are all the games?" is a really obvious question.
Certainly not a question that people should be mortally offended by people asking.

 

[Microsoft Chad]

You're using made up numbers and also comparing sell in to sell through. Don't do that.

I'm using your estimate for 14 million, but yes I did get sold through and sold in mixed up.

I'm saying that if a console with zero support has roughly the same amount of titles as a console with all of the supports then asking "where are all the games?" is a really obvious question.
Certainly not a question that people should be mortally offended by people asking.

Again this can only work if you ignore the fact the PS4 got the more games than the Wii U in less time. You would also have to ignore the fact PS4 got a good handful of games the Wii u will never see and had not seen, same for Xbox one and PC (the games shared with those two consoles that is.

It could be I just don't understand your statement, which is probably the case.

 

[ZhugeEX]

I'm using your estimate for 14 million, but yes I did get sold through and sold in mixed up.

I've never said 14 million.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

Traditional wisdom has it that software drives hardware.

Software was only up in the UK by 7.5% last year, and that is following a general decline over the dwindling tail end of last generation.
However, hardware was up significantly more as a result of new hardware launches in the Xbone and PS4.

Is it really ridiculous to ask what is driving those hardware sales if it is not in fact software?

 

[TI82]

Traditional wisdom has it that software drives hardware.

Software was only up in the UK by 7.5% last year, and that is following a general decline over the dwindling tail end of last generation.
However, hardware was up significantly more as a result of new hardware launches in the Xbone and PS4.

Is it really ridiculous to ask what is driving those hardware sales if it is not in fact software?

Except we've seen games sell very well still, wasn't Destiny the highest selling new IP of all time for example?

 

[Microsoft Chad]

I've never said 14 million.

Lol that was verendus apparently in that thread. Where do you think Xbox is at?

 

[slavesnyder]

Traditional wisdom has it that software drives hardware.

Software was only up in the UK by 7.5% last year, and that is following a general decline over the dwindling tail end of last generation.
However, hardware was up significantly more as a result of new hardware launches in the Xbone and PS4.

Is it really ridiculous to ask what is driving those hardware sales if it is not in fact software?

These are all guesses:

Downloads not counted in retail statistics (so in fact software sales went up a lot in the end?)
Longer playtime per title through online multiplayer
Bigger and bigger single player games with more hours to sink in
Multimedia features
A very long generation before and the thirst for new toys
Headphone plugs on the controller

 

[ZhugeEX]

Lol that was verendus apparently in that thread. Where do you think Xbox is at?

Between 13 million and 13.5 million sold in as of March 31st 2015.

Of course it could be outside this region but I wouldn't expect it to be significantly higher or lower.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

Except we've seen games sell very well still, wasn't Destiny the highest selling new IP of all time for example?

Yes, as was Wash_Doges before it , and Destiny bundling undoubtedly helped with a hardware bump, but hardware sales are vastly outpacing software sales.
To the extent that I think "what are all those people playing?" is a legitimate question.

EDIT:

These are all guesses:

Downloads not counted in retail statistics (so in fact software sales went up a lot in the end?)
Longer playtime per title through online multiplayer
Bigger and bigger single player games with more hours to sink in
Multimedia features
A very long generation before and the thirst for new toys
Headphone plugs on the controller

Could well be all / none / any of the above.
Could also be people using PSN+ as a videogame netflix.

I really don't know.
I think it's a potentially interesting topic of discussion.

 

[PoweredByHentai]

Lol that was verendus apparently in that thread. Where do you think Xbox is at?

14 million is from the retarded games editor at ars technica who uses made up numbers.

I personally think 13 million shipped is too high for the Xbone. =/

 

[Microsoft Chad]

Between 13 million and 13.5 million sold in as of March 31st 2015.

Of course it could be outside this region but I wouldn't expect it to be significantly higher or lower.

So around 12 sold-through?

Must have had low shipments so far then.

 

[xxracerxx]

Yes, as was Wash_Doges before it , and Destiny bundling undoubtedly helped with a hardware bump, but hardware sales are vastly outpacing software sales.
To the extent that I think "what are all those people playing?" is a legitimate question.

Do you just not understand that it could have been worded differently? Asking "what games are they playing" is tantamount to "PS4 haz no gamez" and that shit is played out around here. If he had phrased it in a way that actually was conveying the question he was asking, people would not have jumped on his question.

 

[slavesnyder]

double post

 

[Microsoft Chad]

14 million is from the retarded games editor at ars technica who uses made up numbers.

I personally think 13 million shipped is too high for the Xbone. =/

Why?

They were at 10 shipped early December and sold 1.2 million in the U.S. alone, so that's over 11 million shipped right there. Then you have WW. Then the last 4 months.

The guy who posted above me said 13-13.5 range.

 

[DieH@rd]

As a rough estimate we can say that PS4 in the UK and USA accounts for around 45% of worldwide sales.

For Xbox One we can say, again as a rough estimate that UK and USA accounts for more than 70% of worldwide sales. (could potentially be lower but I doubt it)

rough estimate. Do not take it as gospel, also please note the "more than" and "around".

Thanks.

 

[slavesnyder]

Could well be all / none / any of the above.
Could also be people using PSN+ as a videogame netflix.

I really don't know.
I think it's a potentially interesting topic of discussion.

Absolutely. PSN+ is a good point, too.

 

[AmaterasuOni]

14 million is from the retarded games editor at ars technica who uses made up numbers.

I personally think 13 million shipped is too high for the Xbone. =/

I've thought that 11-11,5 million sold through is kind of a realistic figure.

 

[PoweredByHentai]

Yes, as was Wash_Doges before it , and Destiny bundling undoubtedly helped with a hardware bump, but hardware sales are vastly outpacing software sales.
To the extent that I think "what are all those people playing?" is a legitimate question.

Your problem is how you phrased that question.

"What are all those people playing" is very situational and the intent can easily be mistaken for being malicious.

"What are the most popular games" is a more objective question that can be discussed with sales records.

 

[Stanng243]

Why?

They were at 10 shipped early December and sold 1.2 million in the U.S. alone, so that's over 11 million shipped right there. Then you have WW. Then the last 4 months.

The guy who posted above me said 13-13.5 range.

You know those 1.2 million they sold were part of the 10 million shipped right? That 1.2 was sold to customers, not retailers. And the first 3 months of this year, they shipped 1.6 million Xbox 360 + xbox ones. This is all from my memory though, so it could be wrong.

 

[Microsoft Chad]

You know those 1.2 million they sold were part of the 10 million shipped right? That 1.2 was sold to customers, not retailers. And the first 3 months of this year, they shipped 1.6 million Xbox 360 + xbox ones. This is all from my memory though, so it could be wrong.

They were at 10 million shipped before December ended and sold 1.2 in U.S. alone + WW Holiday sales number, which would mean they would have to ship enough to keep things stocked.

Same with the PS4, they were already probably near 20 million shipped or more when they made the 18.5 million announcement, and that was after 4.1 million World Wide, so they had to ship more to cover the sales.

 

[Stanng243]

They were at 10 million shipped before December ended and sold 1.2 in U.S. alone + WW Holiday sales number, which would mean they would have to ship enough to keep things stocked.

Same with the PS4, they were already probably near 20 million shipped or more when they made the 18.5 million announcement, and that was after 4.1 million World Wide, so they had to ship more to cover the sales.

From all indications, they were not near selling 10 milling to customers when that was announced. Look at the ACU bundle. That was supposed to be a Holiday edition, and it's still in stores. Microsoft tends to overship.

 

[spatenfloot]

Asking what software is driving those hardware sales - to me - is an entirely legitimate question, because we're not seeing Holy Shit software sales to go with those Holy Shit hardware sales.

Call of Duty, Battlefield, FIFA

 

[PoweredByHentai]

I've thought that 11-11,5 million sold through is kind of a realistic figure.

I can believe 11-11.5 million sold through based on the various sales threads and fiscal reports.

Why?

They were at 10 shipped early December and sold 1.2 million in the U.S. alone, so that's over 11 million shipped right there. Then you have WW. Then the last 4 months.

The guy who posted above me said 13-13.5 range.

13 to 13.5 million shipped would mean that some level of channel stuffing is happening. This is based on distribution channel trends that people like Abdiel have mentioned coupled with an average sold through of 11 to 11.5 million. This means that you have 1.5 to 2 million units in inventory, which is an uncomfortably high amount to have sitting around for me at least.

I could be totally wrong and I'd be perfectly happy with Abdiel or someone with logistics experience correct me.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

Do you just not understand that it could have been worded differently? Asking "what games are they playing" is tantamount to "PS4 haz no gamez" and that shit is played out around here. If he had phrased it in a way that actually was conveying the question he was asking, people would not have jumped on his question.

Your problem is how you phrased that question.

"What are all those people playing" is very situational and the intent can easily be mistaken for being malicious.

"What are the most popular games" is a more objective question that can be discussed with sales records.

(I didn't phrase that question, I was defending the guy who did btw)
I personally don't think there should be half a page of people quoting the dude and calling for a ban because he asked a question that might be interpreted as console warz, particularly in a topic about how well the PS4 is selling, but this is way Off Topic and probably backseat modding.

 

[Melchiah]

"Its only for Nintendo games" is basically the same thing.

Well, it doesn't have much of a 3rd party support.

 

[AmaterasuOni]

I can believe 11-11.5 million sold through based on the various sales threads and fiscal reports.

Yeah, that's where I'm basing my questimate. Been following these threads quite closely.

 

[xxracerxx]

(I didn't phrase that question, I was defending the guy who did btw)
I personally don't think there should be half a page of people quoting the dude and calling for a ban because he asked a question that might be interpreted as console warz, particularly in a topic about how well the PS4 is selling, but this is way Off Topic and probably backseat modding.

Not a single person who quoted him was asking for him to be banned. Can you prove otherwise? You are the one who is making this into a witchhunt for his comment.

Edit: I am totally not going to get a response to this, am I?

 

[Microsoft Chad]

From all indications, they were not near selling 10 milling to customers when that was announced. Look at the ACU bundle. That was supposed to be a Holiday edition, and it's still in stores. Microsoft tends to overship.

I'm not using sold to consumers. The 10 million from Microsoft is shipped.

I can believe 11-11.5 million sold through based on the various sales threads and fiscal reports.



13 to 13.5 million shipped would mean that some level of channel stuffing is happening. This is based on distribution channel trends that people like Abdiel have mentioned coupled with an average sold through of 11 to 11.5 million.

No, we have 10 million shipped before December, I can easily see another million shipped from then till the end of the year, and the recent quarter had another million shipments.

Please keep in mind I'm thinking shipped numbers not sold-through. It may be possible there's over 1 million in the channel, especially in NA/UK area.

 

[serversurfer]

14 million is from the retarded games editor at ars technica who uses made up numbers.

I personally think 13 million shipped is too high for the Xbone. =/

It's worth remembering that Bone shipments are largely unrelated to its actual sales. We're more than a month in to Q2, and retailers are still "warring" on the shipments they received back in Q4. Despite this, MS went ahead and shipped another 1M+ Bones in Q1.

 

[Microsoft Chad]

It's worth remembering that Bone shipments are largely unrelated to its actual sales. We're more than a month in to Q2, and retailers are still "warring" on the shipments they received back in Q4. Despite this, MS went ahead and shipped another 1M+ Bones in Q1.

I can walk into 3 stores and see palettes of ACU and Halo MCC bundles, so I can easily believe they shipped over 13 million with stuffing. Server here also points out they shipped another OVER 1 million consoles.

MS likes to stuff the Christmas stocking so you can't take it off the fire place until July.

 

[Stanng243]

I'm not using sold to consumers. The 10 million from Microsoft is shipped.



No, we have 10 million shipped before December, I can easily see another million shipped from then till the end of the year, and the recent quarter had another million shipments.

Please keep in mind I'm thinking shipped numbers not sold-through. It may be possible there's over 1 million in the channel, especially in NA/UK area.

I know you're using shipped. I'm saying there is no reason to think there was another million shipped in December alone. I don't think they had shipped 10 million until December. They announced they had almost sold-in 10 million in November. And this recent quarter had 1.6 million 360s and xbox ones shipped to the whole world.

 

[Microsoft Chad]

I know you're using shipped. I'm saying there is no reason to think there was another million shipped in December alone. I don't think they had shipped 10 million until December. They announced they had almost sold-in 10 million in November. And this recent quarter had 1.6 million 360s and xbox ones shipped to the whole world.

Almost 10 million would mean they were already close to it, so there had to be another shipment at least by the end of November, and I doubt it was anything below a million considering the Xbox one sold like 4 million WW during those 2 months.

Then you got to take into account people reporting large shipments they still have not gotten rid of and then MS shipping another over 1 million consoles.

I'd say they are clearly stuffing the channel.

By being able to do so carefully, son they can announce 15 million units in vague words, people will think it's sold, people will think XBox One is right around the corner of the PS4, and boom, PR brilliance.

 

[ZhugeEX]

The 10 million number is worthless. All it tells us is that they shipped over 10 million.

But we don't know when, and we don't know how much over 10m.

Usually when we get numbers from MS and Sony we get a date. E.g Sony at 20.2m as of March 1st or Microsoft by Dec 28th.

In this all we had was 10m has been hit.

We don't know when. So it's worthless to say that 10m was hit in December and therefore sales in December must be X.

In terms of shipments we have enough information now to show that shipments will be over 13 million as of March 31st 2015.

In terms of sell through, well you can read this post for a rough idea. I use absolute minimums here.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=162807301&postcount=271

 

[panda-zebra]

Almost 10 million would mean they were already close to it, so there had to be another shipment at least by the end of November,

Why more? ms do their business in the holidays, they pumped out the boxes to retailers and set a price they thought would get them shifted, then they made a statement. Anything beyond that is you guessing.

 

[Microsoft Chad]

The 10 million number is worthless. All it tells us is that they shipped over 10 million.

But we don't know when, and we don't know how much over 10m.


In terms of shipments we have enough information now to show that shipments will be over 13 million as of March 31st 2015.

Well if we have that info then we are set. MS will probably be stuffing until 15 million for PR wonderfulness.

Also while we don't know when, the Announcement was made at the start of December, so i think it's safe to say the 10 million goal was at least made in November in between the announcement and MS's "almost there" statement.

No that it matters, i was just trying to find away to say they are over 13, you seem to have that info.

 

[qa_engineer]

That was what I was saying. I'm surprised that enough people are aware of the differences to still be perceiving the PS4 as better value for money, in spite of the price cut making the XO cheaper.

Word of mouth is the best form of marketing. You get enough buzz going on the interwebz and that leads to people talking to their friends, neighbors, family members about it, and then the product pretty much sells itself

 

[Microsoft Chad]

Why more? ms do their business in the holidays, they pumped out the boxes to retailers and set a price they thought would get them shifted, then they made a statement. Anything beyond that is you guessing.

In order for an announcement of "almost 10 million" to exist they would HAVE to ship AGAIN in order to reach 10 million. That's why they had to ship more.

Unless I misunderstood your question.

 

[gamehead]

Another victory for the Playstation nation

 

[Microsoft Chad]

Anyway, Where were the PS3/Xbox 360 at within this same time period for comparison? Xbox/PS2?

 

[serversurfer]

I can walk into 3 stores and see palettes of ACU and Halo MCC bundles, so I can easily believe they shipped over 13 million with stuffing. Server here also points out they shipped another OVER 1 million consoles.

MS likes to stuff the Christmas stocking so you can't take it off the fire place until July.

I don't serve the surfers. I surf the servers. <3

 

[jryi]

Almost 10 million would mean they were already close to it, so there had to be another shipment at least by the end of November, and I doubt it was anything below a million considering the Xbox one sold like 4 million WW during those 2 months.

First of all, Nadella confirmed at the beginning of December, that MS had at that time shipped 10M Xbox Ones. (Although there was discussion at the time, whether he was just referring to the press release given a few weeks earlier or if this was an actual confirmation of the fact.)

Second, you have to understand, that all holiday sales had to be included in those shipment numbers, because in order to be able to sell something to consumers, that something has to leave the factories in China, travel across the ocean and be delivered to store shelves. Anything that you start shipping in December will miss the holiday sales window, unless you are using air freight, but that is more expensive and MS has zero reason to use it.

So the sell through numbers over the holidays are actually quite inconsequential for post-November shipments. Think 10M + 1Q15 consumer sales + channel stuffing, and you'll get a somewhat decent estimate.

By now, I just tend to trust Zhuge's analyses.