Best case scenario is a symmetrical funding graph like Bloodstained:
It that happens, it ends at about $7.5 million.
SHENMUE 3 kickstarter (PC/PS4) - FINAL DAY - NEW KS RECORD GO GO GO!
- Thread starter Mr. RPG
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Best case scenario is a symmetrical funding graph like Bloodstained:
It that happens, it ends at about $7.5 million.
guys, we're getting bogged down in numbers again. i know it's hard not to when things have been slow the last few days, but we're just perpetuating the narrative that the bubble has burst.
we've still got new stretch goals to meet and are waiting on new tiers to appear. the kickstarter has over 20 days left on the clock. that's plenty of time to push forward.
we've still got new stretch goals to meet and are waiting on new tiers to appear. the kickstarter has over 20 days left on the clock. that's plenty of time to push forward.
Die Squirrel Die
Member
To your first point, you are really going to have to expand on your reasoning here because I can't see how any conversation pieces at launch that revolve around when somebody preordered and how they collected their preorder is going to be thrilling.
And as to your 2nd point, if a game having 100k kickstarter preorders to fulfill is going to take such a chunk out of potential retail sales that retailers would get pissed, that's a game that's going to sell so few copies to begin with that retailers are probably not chomping at the bit to stock it in the first place.
Theonik
Member
That is not necessarily true. Well they wouldn't necessarily pushing copies at retail and Sony has published third party games on their platforms in some regions. In the first place backer exclusive physical copies are a great way to drive people into your campaign.
Do we actually know if it's real leather? Wouldn't be bad value if it was.
maquiladora
Member
Didn't Adam Boyes say on GB that Sony aren't publishing it?
ArisenDragon
Member
Yep, we got over 3 weeks to make it happen.
El_Cinefilo
Member
No Fuku San as favourite Shenmue character in the poll?!?
Voted xiuying
they knew better than to add him
not sure, looks kinda suede, but the prototype looks waaaaaay more accurate than the insertcoin offering,
If darts comes with a similar groovy tune as Shenmue I then hopefully that
I would like to see slots make a return as well.
ArisenDragon
Member
I hope they add some goodies for a tier between 30-60 bucks for people who can't afford anything higher.
Its a lose, lose - you focus on the launch date, you get the retail and media lined up behind it, get the conversation going, buy the adspace and so forth -
So when do you ship the backers physical copies? The answer is - late, because if you ship them early - you get diluted interest, potential customers that arent happy they are excluded, people talking about the content of the game early...
And when you ship them late, you enrage the superfans, because - why should they be the ones waiting, and so forth...
You could release digital first - but retail wouldnt like it.
And thats not even the primary reason - depending on your release strategy you want to create buzz. Everyone talking about, that "it will be available tomorrow". Not "did you get yours in the mail today" discussions.
Also - you dont want to dilute the price point - which is exactly what most Kickstarter "want PS4 physical" backers would want to. They are Day 1 customers who would probably spend 20-30 USD extra to get goodies. At what point do you cannibalize potential double purchases - and at 60 USD listprice plus 5 USD merchandise, plus shipping - where is your profit margin? The PC version simply would launch at a cheeper pricepoint. Will loose its pricepoint faster, and will sell less copies.
Would you want the discussion about why the PS4 tier suddently is 120 USD?
And then you dont have a publisher yet (afaik), who will care about sales mostly - and Sony "only pressing the Blurays - for a different publisher", nope - thats not happening.
It is hard to even find one reason, why you should even consider it. The people who are asking for it now, are the same ones who would buy it as a collectors edition on launch. They are very much value conscious.
So when do you ship the backers physical copies? The answer is - late, because if you ship them early - you get diluted interest, potential customers that arent happy they are excluded, people talking about the content of the game early...
And when you ship them late, you enrage the superfans, because - why should they be the ones waiting, and so forth...
You could release digital first - but retail wouldnt like it.
And thats not even the primary reason - depending on your release strategy you want to create buzz. Everyone talking about, that "it will be available tomorrow". Not "did you get yours in the mail today" discussions.
Also - you dont want to dilute the price point - which is exactly what most Kickstarter "want PS4 physical" backers would want to. They are Day 1 customers who would probably spend 20-30 USD extra to get goodies. At what point do you cannibalize potential double purchases - and at 60 USD listprice plus 5 USD merchandise, plus shipping - where is your profit margin? The PC version simply would launch at a cheeper pricepoint. Will loose its pricepoint faster, and will sell less copies.
Would you want the discussion about why the PS4 tier suddently is 120 USD?
And then you dont have a publisher yet (afaik), who will care about sales mostly - and Sony "only pressing the Blurays - for a different publisher", nope - thats not happening.
It is hard to even find one reason, why you should even consider it. The people who are asking for it now, are the same ones who would buy it as a collectors edition on launch. They are very much value conscious.
Theonik
Member
Yeah I was actually looking at getting the Insert Coin one and wasn't a huge fan of it before the campaign. The Fangamer one looks a lot better barring some inaccuracies I'd hope they'd fix from the prototype. Real leather would really sweeten the deal since I've kinda wanted to get a real leather jacket for ages now but never bothered to and this is an insanely cool way to go about it.
Edit:
Perhaps they could do an underground Casino.If darts comes with a similar groovy tune as Shenmue I then hopefully that
I would like to see slots make a return as well.
The priorities of the stretch goals are kind of confusing to me, according to the KS video, there are 2 other villages that need to get funded after the first 5 million stretch goal that complete the story of Shemue 3. But right now they're only focusing on putting extra minigames on the first Baisha village only. Doesn't it make more sense to prioritize the funds on completing the entire skeleton of the game including the other 2 villages before ornamenting a single one?
Ryo Hazuki
Member
The villages will be in the game regardless. It's just a case of making each one more robust with the stretch goals. Which is weird when you're only fleshing out one and not the others so yeah, the stretch goals aren't the best and don't really motivate people to pledge towards them really.
Theonik
Member
I think all three villages are getting made we can't see them though and that makes it confusing. They should have shuffled things around better with 'More Minigames' 'More quests' 'More lucky hit' this kind of goals without specifying. It is ultimately the same but is easier to sell.
breakYODAy
Member
Are we thinking of the same mirrors?
It's weird how they're called mirrors at all but apparently in China such things are real and quite different from what we would call a mirror.
Die Squirrel Die
Member
openrob
Member
The Insert coin one is actually terrible quality
Theonik
Member
I figured. It was only 80 quid too and well I wouldn't expect any better. lol
The number of people that want to contribute in crowdfunding things is pretty tiny even among fans of things. As long as the end product is good the sales will come regardless.
It is an interesting question though. You can not really project sales numbers from KS numbers I think, which is why I've felt that the gauging interest kind of KS is quite strange, but then again if the product sells anyhow which a successful KS can at least indicate then a publisher can make back a small fixed magnitude investment back pretty easily. Stuff like Koch Media dropping $4.5m on bloodstained they are probably making back even if the campaign sold $5.7m of units.
Tricky I Shadow
Banned
I really do hope that we get some new mini games and not just all the ones we've already seen.
That guy is such a chump.
I suspect the way YS are doing it is each village will exist regardless of whether or not the stretch goals are met. The stretch goals from 4 to 5 million basically fleshes out in full everything YS wants to achieve for Baisha Village:
If those goals are met then presumably there will be the exact same stretch goals for Bailu and Chouba villages as well.
And they did have a PS4 physical copy tier? And how did they navigate through the problems I mentioned? (After some research - they didnt.)
My proposal right now is: It would cannibalize launch marketing, and most people who are asking for it now are value sensitive and just want a "bargain" which will hurt perceived value and launch sales.
PC physical doesn't cause those problems, because it is basically dead - people dont care so much if they get it late, because they play it digital and put the hardcopy on the shelf. Retail doesnt care and the pricepoint of physical wouldnt hold up as well.
I understand the "want" reflex, but it is an entirely different question if it would make sense for the developer and publisher.
Theonik
Member
That's what I was thinking. Talking about forklifts and other fan favourite things and thinking about pleasing the fans is one thing, but I want Yu to have fun coming up with new wacky things for us to discover! No need to try and get forklifts in the game if he can't! I'd rather we get a wheelbarrow minigame instead!
xDUMPWEEDx
Banned
If the current backer rate average from the past 3 days continues until the end of the kickstarter, then the final total is on pace to hit $4,750,000.
Are we thinking of the same mirrors?
It's weird how they're called mirrors at all but apparently in China such things are real and quite different from what we would call a mirror.
I figured perhaps the other side was meant to be reflective.
Shadow2222
Member
That's my take on it, too. The stone has a literal mirror sheen to it.
Tricky I Shadow
Banned
Agreed. I hope the fans don't influence him too much. It's one thing to have little easter eggs here and there to keep the fans happy, but just don't go overboard trying to please everyone. Stick mainly to your own vision Yu!
How are you guys so sure about this? The KS video clearly says "3 areas will make up the stretch goals" Never mentions anything about them being there from the beginning.
Reddit AMA:
>Are all the towns listed in the Kickstarter stretch goals in the game already, or are the stretch goals only there as a means to help give them more features and spice?
>YS: They are there, but with more powered up through the stretch goals.
http://www.shenmuedojo.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=47838&hilit=reddit
Shadow2222
Member
If the mechanics stay the same, I say regular darts.
The Inventor
Member
Just seen these!
lol
Loool! #dead hahaha
Are we thinking of the same mirrors?
It's weird how they're called mirrors at all but apparently in China such things are real and quite different from what we would call a mirror.
'Mirrors' or not, those would make some sweet coasters.
It's funny how Ryo's hand shakes differently depending on which he's playing.
But yeah, regular Darts.
Maybe there is though I've not seen the other side. According to Wiki:
Bronze mirrors were produced in China from neolithic times until the Qing Dynasty, when western glass mirrors were brought to China. Bronze mirrors were usually circular, with one side polished bright, to give a reflection, and the reverse side with designs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bronze_mirror#China
Fun fact: this guy was killed by someone in a black car shortly after recording.
I don't get it. Sony don't want to give away physical PS4 copies?
Surely if the reason was licensing fees they'd just say so.
Ryo Hazuki
Member
Please understand.
My theory is that Sony is publishing it on PS4 and the deal is that they will get a larger share of the physical copies sold. Hence they don't want it as a Kickstarter reward. It would explain why they're willing to pay for marketing, which Adam Boyes (or maybe it was John Drake) said was unprecedented for the third-party relations team.
Shadow2222
Member
It does make sense. Honestly, for this game, marketing will be nearly as important as the actual development cost.
I am 100% okay with PS4 physical copies not being part of the Kickstarter, although I understand that many, many people will be disappointed.
Probably the best possible outcome if so. Hard to imagine anyone outside of Sony putting much into the marketing budget.
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