July 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes August 11th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Omnistalgic
Member
The heck kinda deal is that? U either get a free Xbox or a free TV depending on how u look at it? How was any profit made?
Primethius
Banned
There wasn't anything big released July right? If the PS4 is down from last year (likely) and the XB1 up (likely), I can see the XB1 outselling it by a small amount.
Regardless, I expect the gap between the two to be within 20k.
Regardless, I expect the gap between the two to be within 20k.
[PS4] 215k
[XB1] 185k
[WIU] 70k
[3DS] 80k
I can see maybe Rare Replay giving them a solid bump this month?
[XB1] 185k
[WIU] 70k
[3DS] 80k
It's had that advantage for some time now and it hasn't really helped that much in terms of catching the PS4. At least the XB1 definitely seems to be doing well in it's own right now which is good to see.
I can see maybe Rare Replay giving them a solid bump this month?
Aceofspades
Banned
I'm one of the people who thinks X1 outsold PS4 this month...IDK why really.
The batman bundle would still have momentum into July.
I think XB1 will win August.
No reason for it not to be possible this month, but I do think those Batman PS4 bundles probably kept selling pretty decently well into July. If PS4 gets the edge that'll be why.
August seems very doable for XB1.
God Of War 3 Remastered released in July.
I really don't expect GoW3 to chart in the top 10, but we'll see.
It might, I'm not sure. Either way, it's definitely not a system seller, but it could move a few units.
Yep, I don't think GoW3 Remaster pushed many people at all to buy a PS4. If it's on the chart at all I can only see it at the 9 or 10 spot at most.
A NEW God of War game would be a system seller. Not a Remaster of a game that not many out there were clamoring for. From what I can tell interest was low on it.
Darth Smurf X
Member
I fixed your quote for you.
It was number 7 atleast on the PSN charts for July.
http://blog.us.playstation.com/2015/08/07/playstation-store-july-2015s-top-sellers/
Not that I am saying its anywhere near a system seller.
Hahaha. Well it was a downloadable game that was free for PS+. I'd be surprised if it pushed a lot of console sales.
But yeah, fucking Rocket League. Game of the month and will be in the running for my GOTY.
Also hi Smurf! Didn't know you had a GAF account. And we should totally play some Rocket League in a bit, lol.
PanicFreak
Member
I never know exactly which days are tracked in which months by the NPD.
Cornbread78
Member
It's amazing how slow the NPD threads have gotten in the past 6 months now that sales have leveled out some. I guess it will pick back up for Nov.-Jan, but man..
I miss the insane meltdowns.
Same for Pal chart topics
I'll go one further and say they'll win for the rest of the year.
Lol come on now.
EDIT: unless I read that wrong and you mean the PS4 will win the rest of this year.
But would it actually have moved systems?
FWIW I predicted PS4 by 50k over XB1 but that's due to its momentum, Batman bundles, better hardware, etc.
BeforeU
Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
they probably will. Aug - Jan is on lock.
btw I will be happy if Rare collection makes it to top 10.
OnionPowder
Member
Yeah, XB1 is going to outsell a battlefront bundle and that COD marketing.
lol nope.
Likely Oct, maybe Dec depending on pricing, but I doubt it beyond that.
While BC will be a selling point in Nov, I doubt that will overtake the Battlefront and CoD bundling
Primethius
Banned
I can see XB1 taking the rest of the year (barring price drops) but not September. Don't think Forza is big enough to take MGS and Destiny on.
September will go to PS4 because of the Destiny bundle and MGS5. Halo in October could give XB1 the win. November and December could go either way. PS4 is likely to get a price drop and they'll have COD and SW bundles.
Cornbread78
Member
LOL, thanks fro reminding us Phil.
YES! Always fun to watch the warriors do their thing, I may take a job here or there in good fun, but I much prefer to grab my camping chair, a can of diet Dew and a bag of popcorn and watch from the sidelines.
Same for Pal chart topics
I think the last interesting one was when Sony broke that 4-6 month MS "winning streak" or what ever that articles was saying.
I think both are gonna kill it, but I have a hard time seeing the XB1 taking every month out from here. That would be pretty huge.
If they do pull it off, it would sure make things a hell of a lot more exciting.
There won't be a MGS bundle. If there were it would have been announced a long time ago as the same time as Destiny. It will still help sales regardless
BeforeU
Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
I dont know how is this surprising to many people. Last year MS took over with just AC bundle. Game wasnt even well recieved, They had COD bundle but that wasn't anywhere near the successful AC bundle because of the price point. Sony had GTA bundle still MS outsold then by hundreds of thousand units.
What you think is going to happen this holiday when you have Halo and most likely free Tomb Raider bundle. Fallout 4 marketing. And just because COD is marketed on PS4 now thats not going to suddenly make people think its PS4 exclusive. COD has huge following on 360 and One.
The only killer deal Sony has is the battlefront.
There's a special red PS4 MGS5 bundle for the European market, but yeah I don't think there's anything for US.
Primethius
Banned
I only say that in the event the PS4 and X1 still have a $50 gap going into Nov and Dec. August has two fairly big X1 releases and it's smaller month so I can see it winning. Sept is pretty much a lock for the PS4. Oct I fully expect X1 to win because of Halo 5. Nov and Dec depend too much on deals and the PS4 price point, but I think a $50 gap in favor of X1 will allow it to edge out victories despite the PS4 heavy marketing deals.
Just? The price point was the real killer not the bundle.
fixed
Star Wars is insanely huge and with the movie on the horizon it puts even more eyes on it. I have a feeling it's going to be bigger than BF4 sales wise.
But Halo 5, Tomb Raider, Fallout 4 marketing. Yeah, I see it now. That does make sense.
BeforeU
Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
And they will again sell it at the same price. Halo Bundle 100$ discounted with 2 free games. Etc.
Primethius
Banned
That's a bit wild. I'm sure MS will win if they go crazy with price cuts but I don't think they'll be going below $299. Tomb Raider bundle for $299 is the most I can see happening.
I think come holiday time the PS4 name on it's own is going to do a lot for Sony. Positive word of mouth is still carrying over pretty heavily for Sony. Like at this point, other than my gaming hobbyist friends, I don't hear the average person mention the XB1 when talking about current video games. Obviously we're in the middle of summer so it's not like anyone has made a push yet, Microsoft is probably gearing up in a big way for the coming months.
As it was pointed out to me, XB1 has Halo and Tomb Raider coming up so that'll attract a lot of new people. And if they push hard with the Fallout marketing, it could easily go their way.
Sure but I'm addressing last year, not this year. Don't pretend ACU bundle was better than a GTA bundle but not mention other retail incentives.
BeforeU
Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
Read my post again. I specifically said that
I don't know... its just my instinct I guess. Also like April, little to no advantage for the PS4, so we've also got that. But we'll wait and see, and find out who was right in a few hours.
Not talking about a MGSV bundle. I know there won't be one in the U.S. I'm specifically talking about the game itself. Main base on PS so that will definitely help with hardware sales.
I think there will be a price cut at PGW. Too many things allude to it. Sony has increased their sales forecast for this year and the new 1200 model PS4 that's cheaper to produce. I think at this point it's a given.
Darth Smurf X
Member
Darth Smurf X
Member
Yeah. When PH died a horrible, swift and sudden death, I migrated here.
And I saw your invite last night, but I wasn't feeling well and just shut my eyes for a bit.
Also, here are my predictions without a Sony price cut.
August - MS
September - Sony
October - MS
November - Sony
December - eek... um... well... MS, I guess.
With a PS4 price cut, December is Sony.
AgentP
Thinks mods influence posters politics. Promoted to QAnon Editor.
Way to ignore price in our analysis. Sony was $399, MS was down to $329 at some points. MS also threw in more games than just UC.
dead monkey uk
Member
I do not understand why Sony do not offer more special edition consoles in the US, seems like it generates a lot of interest in Europe and Japan. The red MGS seems like a great way to boost sales.
Also with MS promoting Fallout 4, why are they not releasing a Vault themed Xbox One with a copy of the game.
Final Verdict
Member
Why would you think that?
While it has been trending slightly below last year in certain months, the continued sell of the Batman bundle which jolted sales up above last year's trend for June considerably should keep it above the line this month as well.
You also have to remember that in the early months this year where PS4 was trending below last year--In those months last year (2014) PS4 was still selling out, and it did not have that momentum going into 2015--by June/July 2014, however, the PS4's sales finally slowed down, and demand was well met, so the PS4 has a much better chance of topping it's numbers from last year for every month in the second have of this year other than September (where it did crazy numbers last year thanks to Destiny).
While it is still a bit early, I think that could be very likely. When you consider things such as the BB deal which has done very well so far, and the two games along with two bundles coming out this month...I think the PS4 will still sell very strong this month, but the X1 could very well out do it.
I will say that I think both consoles will do very well this Holiday....the November thread will be quite entertaining to watch
In any case, I think that if Sony can come out with a $350 Star Wars bundle for the whole month (well I guess it would only be two weeks since it launches on the 17th), then they could very well take the month regardless of what Microsoft does with the X1 deals.
But either way I think that it will be a lot closer than the blow out we saw last year thanks to Sony actually having some good marketing deals this time around.
Primethius
Banned
I think it was precisely for some of the reasons you outlined. The PS4 has been down in the months without a big game and I just didn't think the continued sales of the Batman bundle would carry over enough to be up over last year.
However, I went back and checked last July's numbers and PS4 was around 187k. And now I think given those numbers, the PS4 is bound to exceed them. I was going off trends but I should've checked the numbers earlier.
SupperCrunch
Member
Keep in mind that last year the third party bundles were announced closer to release. The AC Unity XB1 bundle was announced on October 15, and the GTA V PS4 bundle was announced on November 15. I fully expect more bundles to be announced on both sides (Sony's will probably be announced at Paris Games Week) before these games release.
The Halo 5 bundle being announced so early can probably be explained by the fact that they want as many Halo fans to pre-order that "collector's" bundle before launch.