Fox News Poll: Shakeup in GOP field after first debate, Sanders surges on Clinton

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NeoXChaos said:
Bernie is hitting a wall. 30% is probably the max. Once Biden confirms he is out Hillary will get the balk of his support. The debates are going to be out of the world and by that I mean very boring.
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I feel like people said Bernie was hitting a wall a month ago. It very well could be that 30% is the max but what makes you say that?

I think GOP voters have had it with "traditional" politicians after losing the last two elections nominating the guy that supposedly had the best chance at winning. The numbers will be more interesting as some of the candidates start dropping out.
 
Ziltoidia 9 said:
I'm really not sure if Trump can be over took. Seems like there are 4 different types in GOP right now. Social conservatives, tea party, establishment and ant establishment. Right now I put Carson in anti-establishment, but he I see his followers being able to switch to teaparty or trump easily. As far as the other 3, trump supporters I think are here to stay. It all depends on if the social conservatives and tea party can get behind someone enough to rise about trump.
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Theres already been extensive research on the republican voting block. Henry Olson has a great article on this:

http://eppc.org/publications/four-faces-republican-party/

The voting blocks are - moderates, somewhat conservatives, very conservative secular right, very conservative evangelical. The somewhat conseratives are the largest block and so they tend to pick the candidate.
 
ezrarh said:
I feel like people said Bernie was hitting a wall a month ago. It very well could be that 30% is the max but what makes you say that?

I think GOP voters have had it with "traditional" politicians after losing the last two elections nominating the guy that supposedly had the best chance at winning. The numbers will be more interesting as some of the candidates start dropping out.
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He's not been makijg many inroads with minority voters. His rallies, while big, are really white and this polling backs that up. If he wants to win he needs to broaden his support base and that's where his real battle lies. Not with Hillary, but with voter outreach and convincing minority voters to support him.
 
ezrarh said:
I feel like people said Bernie was hitting a wall a month ago. It very well could be that 30% is the max but what makes you say that?

I think GOP voters have had it with "traditional" politicians after losing the last two elections nominating the guy that supposedly had the best chance at winning. The numbers will be more interesting as some of the candidates start dropping out.
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The GOP field is just filled with so many clowns and/or obvious losers. Bush/Walker have millions behind them and no Charisma. They make Romney look like Obama.

The scariest guy in the general (Kasich) pissed off everyone by endorsing the Medicaid expansion, and so everyone backed "known" horses that have some serious defects.
 
pwack said:
Seems fair. Is actually awful for the lower class.

A billionaire needs his last $100m a whole lot less than a person making $20k needs $2k. And that $20k person probably doesn't actually pay any tax right now, so they would be in a world of hurt under this plan.
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This bears repeating. A flat tax is a massive hike on the poor, a massive tax cut on the rich, and a reduction in revenue. You end up paying more for less.

It sounds good on paper, but the cold, hard, math just does not work.
 
Dennis said:
Trump vs. Sanders is a go.

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i'm so ready
 
ezrarh said:
I feel like people said Bernie was hitting a wall a month ago. It very well could be that 30% is the max but what makes you say that?
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For a start this is an huge outlier considering he's been averaging 18% in national polls for a month now.

But 20-30% is the wall every progressive insurgent faces in a Democratic primary. Look at Dean, Bradley, Tsongas, Hart. Obama only overcame it by winning 85% of black voters, and that was obviously due to unique circumstances (and he only won by those margins when he showed he was electable in Iowa). There's nothing Bernie can really do. It's not personal. Minority voters are as wary of unelectable white liberal saviors as affluent white liberals are wary of the establishment choice.
 
IronicallyTwisted said:
Theres already been extensive research on the republican voting block. Henry Olson has a great article on this:

http://eppc.org/publications/four-faces-republican-party/

The voting blocks are - moderates, somewhat conservatives, very conservative secular right, very conservative evangelical. The somewhat conservatives are the largest block and so they tend to pick the candidate.
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Thats interesting, I wonder who the trump people follow under? I think Trump would do good if he came out with a tax policy to pull the somewhat conservatives crowd. I was thinking Walker might have the best chance to go over Trump, but if someone went over him I'd rather it be Kasich. I think he is at least reasonable in his ideas and fits the mold perfectly based on this article.

For a while I thought it would be Walker, but the Koch side of it might end him. Could you imagine Sanders vs Walker?

I'm not likely to vote in the GOP primary, but I still like to follow and read the field.
 
Ziltoidia 9 said:
Thats interesting, I wonder who the trump people follow under? I think Trump would do good if he came out with a tax policy to pull the somewhat conservatives crowd. I was thinking Walker might have the best chance to go over Trump, but if someone went over him I'd rather it be Kasich. I think he is at least reasonable in his ideas and fits the mold perfectly based on this article.

I'm not likely to vote in the RNC primary, but I still like to follow and read the field.
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I think that's the crowd he already has. The issue is that because he's not actually all that conservative, making inroads in the hardcore is going to be rougher.
 
How did Carson gain? He sounded like a mumbling drunk mess with as many qualifications to be president as my nostril hair.
 
Ziltoidia 9 said:
Thats interesting, I wonder who the trump people follow under? I think Trump would do good if he came out with a tax policy to pull the somewhat conservatives crowd. I was thinking Walker might have the best chance to go over Trump, but if someone went over him I'd rather it be Kasich. I think he is at least reasonable in his ideas and fits the mold perfectly based on this article.

I'm not likely to vote in the RNC primary, but I still like to follow and read the field.
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Trump voters are on the moderate side of the voting block, which is why he is damaging Bush more than he's damaging Ben Carson. Things get even more complicated when you think about what "moderate" means.

We tend to think of moderate as having middle-ground positions on most issues. In reality moderates have extreme positions - but in some combination of left and right.

http://www.vox.com/2015/8/15/9159117/donald-trump-moderate

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Trumps position on immigration (deportation + wall) is the most popular of 7 policy options. Generally both political parties are to the left of the electorate on immigration, which is why hes making waves. He also opposes cutting medicare and social security (popular positions) and is fairly mainstream on social issues.
 
Yellowtail said:
For a start this is an huge outlier considering he's been averaging 18% in national polls for a month now.

But 20-30% is the wall every progressive insurgent faces in a Democratic primary. Look at Dean, Bradley, Tsongas, Hart. Obama only overcame it by winning 85% of black voters, and that was obviously due to unique circumstances (and he only won by those margins when he showed he was electable in Iowa). There's nothing Bernie can really do. It's not personal. Minority voters are as wary of unelectable white liberal saviors as affluent white liberals are wary of the establishment pol.
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And people also forget in the 2008 Democratic side that there were three very close candidates, two of who were very talented (Clinton and Obama) and two of who were very charismatic to voters (Obama and Edwards).
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Yeah, but other demos haven't heard "let's spend half a trillion deporting American families" and thought, "yep, this sounds like what my tax dollars should go to." This L is ours to hold for the moment.
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Well, they're the demographic that wants to maintain their relative social standing.
 
The Llama said:
I'm so shocked at Carson being so high tbh, especially after the debate, where I thought he was terrible and boring.
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People expected him to show up to the debate wearing pants on his head and socks on his arms but he succeeded in hitting key points for many Republican voters and made that joke about people in Washington not having brains. Plus, like Trump, he isn't a politician, so that's a plus.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
White, young men sure are nationalist, anti-immigration, and terrible at economics this cycle going by the Trump and Sanders results.
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I'm sure Hilary, Sanders, and even Trump could hire a team more competent in economics than the ones that were hired for Bill, George, and Barack. It's a pretty low bar to surpass.
 
The moving goalposts for Sanders, lol. There's not stadistical data that shows Sanders has reached a ceiling (as far as I know), considering his appeal is not only "fringe" super liberal democrats, but independents / some libertarians right wingers too (NH/SC are open primaries and Super Tuesday is packed with open primaries too). Anyway, there's two key events that will define if Sanders can become a treat for Clinton:

1. The debates, if he does VERY good.
2. If he can win Iowa and/or New Hampshire.
 
xbhaskarx said:
Are you sure that's what you want? Because there's a good chance Trump would absolutely destroy Bernie Sanders...
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would he though? there's an argument there for debates and the like but in terms of connecting with voters trump's ideas don't nearly hold as much popular support as bernie's.
 
Trump show marches on.

Affluent, white, more left-leaning male vote consolidated for Sanders.

Does the poll give a demographic breakdown of the polled samples?
 
Merica is gonna vote for the populist wildly successful capitalist over the socialist anytime.

Melkr_ said:
The moving goalposts for Sanders, lol. There's not stadistical data that shows Sanders has reached a ceiling (as far as I know), considering his appeal is not only "fringe" super liberal democrats, but independents / some libertarians right wingers too (NH/SC are open primaries and Super Tuesday is packed with open primaries too). Anyway, there's two key events that will define if Sanders can become a treat for Clinton:

1. The debates, if he does VERY good.
2. If he can win Iowa and/or New Hampshire.
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Why would independents vote for Bernie Sanders when they can partake in the largest, most wide open unpredictable field of modern times on the Republican side? Hell I know Democrats who are going to cross over for the primaries for the fun of it.

Truthfully if your political strategy is reliant on getting right wingers/non-Democrats and long time disaffected non-voters to the polls, it's probably going nowhere.
 
neogaffer1 said:
would he though? there's an argument there for debates and the like but in terms of connecting with voters trump's ideas don't nearly hold as much popular support as bernie's.
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The few positions Trump has staked out are pretty popular, but he's consistently argued he wants to be flexible in Government on domestic policy. I don't know if he would beat Sanders, if Sanders stakes out left wing positions on everything I think he would lose. He if moderates or goes to the right on certain issues he may be more palatable.

His economic agenda is sufficiently populist, but his domestic agenda overall is probably too far left for a general election.
 
I don't get how the socialist is not popular with poor people.

Is it ok to make fun of these people like its ok to make fun of southern people on welfare voting R? Some seem to be giving them the benefit of the doubt, that they are backing Hillary as a defensive move to ensure the GOP doesn't win the executive... I think this is quite a stretch. I think they are probably just as ignorant as poor republicans.
 
neogaffer1 said:
would he though? there's an argument there for debates and the like but in terms of connecting with voters trump's ideas don't nearly hold as much popular support as bernie's.
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Ideas?
Trump has billions of dollars. Sanders is an old Jewish socialist form Vermont.
 
xbhaskarx said:
He has billions of dollars.
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If he beats Hillary that would mean he is capable of beating a house hold name who has dramatically more money than him.

The hard part is going to be beating Hillary. (not to say that beating the republican nominee would be easy, but Hillary is the favorite)
 
Flo_Evans said:
I don't get how the socialist is not popular with poor people.

Is it ok to make fun of these people like its ok to make fun of southern people on welfare voting R? Some seem to be giving them the benefit of the doubt, that they are backing Hillary as a defensive move to ensure the GOP doesn't win the executive... I think this is quite a stretch. I think they are probably just as ignorant as poor republicans.
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Typically speaking, lower income workers don't have time to do the in depth research on political positions to figure out how they impact their socioeconomic standing. They do tend to be low-information by comparison to people who have more free time to dig into the issues.

And yes, those who back Hillary may do so in part because they perceive her as more electable and know that a Republican president would work tirelessly to undo the Obama Administration's accomplishments. Hillary, by being someone they see as electable, stands as the defender of the Obama legacy.

Also, there is some level of cynicism here. That yeah, Bernie says some nice things, but they're not realistically accomplishable with our current or foreseeable Congress. Hillary, in this view, is more likely to actually accomplish something even if it doesn't go as far as Bernie would like to.
 
I love that the two biggest losers are the two candidates the establishment wants most badly. They really cannot control the beast they've created.
 
I'm pretty surprised the Koch suckers are actually going to throw money behind Walker. Seems like you might as well throw those hundreds of millions down a well.
 
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