Quinnipiac Poll: Bernie leads Hillary in Iowa 41% to 40%. Diamond Joe back at 12%.
- Thread starter ErasureAcer
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KuwabaraTheMan
Banned
This is good to see. Bernie needs to win both Iowa and New Hampshire if he wants to have a shot.
DragonSworne
Banned
Hillary is just not electable. Time will show this to be true.
BertramCooper
Banned
And Bernie Sanders is?
balladofwindfishes
Member
Unelectable? How so?
She's popular, well known, and has outlined well detailed plans that appeal to the masses...
Resident_UA
Member
I like Bernie more than Hillary, but I do feel bad for her. The "scandal" with email use is just a waste of time. Somehow these type of things keep sticking to her.
teruterubozu
Member
She's electable, but not likable. Which is a problem for many Democrats. We love to love our candidates.
Days like these...
Have a Blessed Day
The notion that Bernie would 'ruin' the election disgusts me. If he gets the nomination and people don't support him then we the people 'ruined' the election and deserve what we get. That is how democracy works.
Interfectum
Member
Yup, it's pretty gross reading some of the left leaning GAFers here. Their fearmongering over Sanders is reaching Fox News levels.
Sorry guys, not everyone wants to go all in with Hillary. Gotta learn to deal with it.
balladofwindfishes
Member
If Bernie supporters stay home because Hillary isn't liberal enough, the message they're actually sending is Hillary isn't conservative enough and they want a more conservative government.
Sorry, that's how it works.
Sorry, that's how it works.
ultratruman
Banned
I can see Warren supporting Biden
Snowman Prophet of Doom
Member
It's not the biggest issue in the world, but I don't think directly and knowingly flouting the law is exactly "nothing". The problem is that even if one doesn't care about it, it feeds directly into decades of Republican messaging about the Clintons being shady, about them being power-hungry and/or arrogant, about them seeing themselves as above the political process. And who's to say there's not one or two more things that could emerge from the closet at this point?
I genuinely think the party would be better-served having Hillary step aside and giving Biden the go-ahead to run. 4 years of continuing the Obama legacy is a good platform for the general.
Days like these...
Have a Blessed Day
That's not true. Maybe being well and truly fucked. (as opposed to just fucked) will make us open our eyes and then and only then will we make progress. Sometimes things have got to hit rock bottom.
Having said that I will begrudgingly vote for Hilldawg if she gets the nomination.
balladofwindfishes
Member
If the GOP wins the presidency, we'll have a Conservative Supreme court for potentially decades. Years of social progress could be wiped out, that could take 20-30 years to fully clean up.
Wishing that to happen to "teach the country a lesson" or because you're cranky Bernie didn't win the nomination is stupid.
BertramCooper
Banned
I wouldn't assume that a Biden presidency would be a continuation of the Obama legacy.
Given his record as a senator, I would expect a Biden presidency to be considerably different than Obama's presidency, and in ways that many liberals wouldn't like.
TheUntamedLegend
Member
You forget the debacle that was the Iowa Caucus 2012.
Santorum won Iowa, eventually, but initially they reported Romney was the winner, for several weeks. When the truth finally came out, it meant absolutely nothing.
Iowa is important not for its delegates but because of the attention it as the first contest.
Not being declared the winner of Iowa absolutely destroyed Santorum's momentum. He also had Gingrich sapping away at the crazy base in the southern states.
Dude Abides
Banned
Heighten the contradictions, comrade!
ErasureAcer
Banned
Have the debate in a year or never because Hillary won't be the nominee.
From the general tone of these threads, I'd be more worried about Hillary supporters staying home if Bernie wins.
shinra-bansho
Member
I'm not really sure where this idea comes from.
There will presumably be a new CNN/ORC national poll soon that will have crosstabs.
In the meantime, there was a PPP South Carolina poll just released [that's attracted little attention so far] with some crosstabs.
Clinton drew 59% of African Americans polled, Biden 27%, Sanders 3%.
Days like these...
Have a Blessed Day
You're scare mongering. Do you really think we would stand for that? We're not that backwards. At least I hope not.
You're looking at it wrongly It's not meant to 'teach the country a lesson' but instead to effect true and meaningful progress/change when people finally realize how fucked we are.
rokkerkory
Member
I think many republicans are ass backwards this day and age, so yes.
Interfectum
Member
Yeah Sanders is doing bad in SC. He's going to be in SC Saturday an hour away from where I live. I'm gonna go check it out.
This poll is Iowa specific and doesn't have minority data. That's also due to Iowa being 90% white and not particularly representative of the nation.
Quinnipac has a national poll from 8/20-8/25 that has minority data in it, but no direct comparisons between the three you mentioned.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Is that a chance you want to take because the "good enough" candidate isn't acceptable?
ErasureAcer
Banned
Wasn't Sanders beating Clinton in that same SC poll with Hispanics? Funny how you left that out.
edit. Wrong state. My bad. Bernie is leading with Hispanics in Georgia 43 to 35%.
shinra-bansho
Member
There is no crosstab information I can find in the document:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_SC_90915.pdf
detailing Hispanics first and second preferences. The only racial categories they have used are White, African American and Other.
Feel free to point out whatever it is you're talking about.
Honestly, in 2012 Romney got 47% of the vote (some 60 million people voted for him). No matter what Democrats do or what advantages Democrats have right now, the Republican side will have a floor that's within striking distance of victory.
So it's not necessarily fear-mongering, it's a legitimate concern that any variable can turn the tables. Especially for people who remember the 2000 election.
Crabernacle
Member
We've been down this path before. Remember all the hand-wringing in 2008 over the angry PUMA's (Party Unity My Ass) staying home on election day? Of course that turned out to be a big ol' nothingburger. When push comes to shove Democrats will rally around our candidate.
Psychoward
Banned
Kasich doesn't stand a chance in the current Republican party climate bruh
dead souls
Member
So much this.
I'm a huge Sanders fan, greatly prefer him to Hillary, but if the democrats run him we will lose and lose badly.
Snowman Prophet of Doom
Member
Whoever wins, the next four years will likely be about the Supreme Court nominations, continuing and expanding the programs passed and the executive orders issued by Obama, and just generally solidifying the better changes of the last 8 years. I think Biden goes into an election with more seeming legitimacy to do that, having been in the trenches of the Obama administration for that time, and also will have more appeal to America more broadly because his image is far more down-to-earth and likable vs. Hillary's cold, political exterior. Whether his presidency would be more reflective of his time as a Senator or his time as a VP remains to be seen, but I think that on virtually every level - symbolically (Amtrak Joe vs. the Clinton Machine), pragmatically, and strategically (4 years of solidifying change, then a fresh start in 2020) - Biden is the best choice.
dehydratedbabies
Member
Why do you think that?
diffusionx
Gold Member
Obama is definitely to the left of the Democratic establishment, though, and has indeed pulled it in that direction.
You should be more concerned about how enthusiastic some people are for Hillary. Also the fact that some people are already proclaiming her a winner doesn't bode well for her in a general election if she even gets that far. Forgone conclusions play bad tricks on electorate especially coupled with her favorability rating. People aren't really enthusiastic about her just like 2008 and that's one of the reason the DMC is already probing for contingency plans. The problem for the DMC is that a lot of the contingency plans they have are pretty much of the same mold. I'd hope at least they go with Elizabeth Warren instead of Biden/Karry/Gore who are already proven losers.
eBay Huckster
Member
Obama was already a contender before winning Iowa, and Dean was already in the process of flaming out (largely as a result of negative ads being flung between his campaign and Gephardt's).
Well, aside from the fact that she literally has 75% favorability among Democrats even in this poll, sure, let's just make shit up as we go along.
You're right! Let's just piss away any chance at progressing out of a reactionary rut for another generation, because of some baby-logic belief that just a little bit more of American conservatism will get people to realize it's shit.
Abinash117
Member
It has been said that Bernie can when Iowa and NH, so he will most likely continue to lead in those two states mainly. It also depends on if Hillary decides to actually campaign which could change the polls around ; I heard she will soon.
I would argue Obama was a potential contender but that he was near entirely dependent upon winning Iowa or his candidacy would've been snuffed out in its crib. He wasn't competitive much anywhere else before he won Iowa.
Yeah, Dean was flaming before Iowa, but he had the lead earlier and set media expectations so that he had to win it.
Days like these...
Have a Blessed Day
Well then what would convince Americans to realize that 'conservativism' is indeed shit?
Eh. I think the historic nature of a Hillary presidency is a more powerful symbol, at least when it comes to campaigning, than Biden's relatable likability. Also, any candidate willingly giving up the incumbency advantage is dumb and kneecaps their own party.
Regardless, I imagine both Biden and Hillary's presidencies would look very similar, with the exception of foreign policy (another area that Hillary has a big advantage over Biden... voters love hawks). So, on that front, if it's a choice between two personalities rather than two sets of policies, that probably bodes better for Hillary than it does for Biden. But I do think it's too late for Biden to jump in the race... no infrastructure, no money, no Obama support, and a bad campaigner... that's a tough hill to climb, even if Hillary is decline.
It is almost impossible for the democratic nominee to lose badly due to demographics.
LegendofJoe
Member
Hillary is getting the Democratic nomination. Sanders is running a good campaign and I love him to death, but we need someone that can beat Trump and Bernie isn't it. Politically, this country isn't ready for Bernie but if we keep working we'll get there eventually.
Hillary will put North Carolina, Indiana, and possibly even Arkansas in play and that is a game changer. She has the best shot to win of any candidate in either party. There's a reason why so few people in the Democratic party have decided to run against her. It's because she's an exceptionally strong candidate.
She is going to do great things for families in this country if she is elected and just as important she has a good chance of flipping the Supreme Court. It's highly unlikely the House changes hands in 2016 but I strongly believe a Hillary Presidency will build strong momentum into 2018 and 2020. And that's what we need to be focused on. Not just the candidate we like the best in isolation, but who to support now that will help us get to where we want to be 15 years from now.
Hillary will put North Carolina, Indiana, and possibly even Arkansas in play and that is a game changer. She has the best shot to win of any candidate in either party. There's a reason why so few people in the Democratic party have decided to run against her. It's because she's an exceptionally strong candidate.
She is going to do great things for families in this country if she is elected and just as important she has a good chance of flipping the Supreme Court. It's highly unlikely the House changes hands in 2016 but I strongly believe a Hillary Presidency will build strong momentum into 2018 and 2020. And that's what we need to be focused on. Not just the candidate we like the best in isolation, but who to support now that will help us get to where we want to be 15 years from now.
dehydratedbabies
Member
Why do you think that Bernie would lose to Trump?
Bel Marduk
Banned
Sanders has been consistent for his entire (very long) career in politics, whereas Clinton has done things that make her very unappealing to progressives. She supported the Iraq War and served on the corporate board of Wal Mart.
The e-mail controversy is certainly overblown but it taps into the narrative that Clinton is dishonest, something she and her husband have always had to fight against.
The e-mail controversy is certainly overblown but it taps into the narrative that Clinton is dishonest, something she and her husband have always had to fight against.
Fenderputty
Banned
Think we would stand for it? lol if this happens it's because a majority voted for it. Of course we would stand for it. lol
eBay Huckster
Member
We don't really know if Obama was "competitive much anywhere else", because barely any of the primary states outside of January were polled particularly often after October 30. From what we do know, he was already leading or very close in multiple Southern states.
And I'd believe this "stink of losing" factor if not for the fact that outside of Iowa/NH, Dean was never leading anywhere.
Four to eight more years of Obama (or further left) policies demonstrably succeeding?
You continue to convince the demographics that aren't white men that your ideology is better at garnering them positive results, you basically win for a generation.
balladofwindfishes
Member
The country has a deep rooted fear of anyone who labels themselves as a socialist, even if they might agree with socialist policies.
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