CharlieDigital
Banned
So I take it that he's just painted a big target on himself for the Tea Party.
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McCarthy drops out the House Speaker race
- Thread starter Black Republican
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So I take it that he's just painted a big target on himself for the Tea Party.
I think so. He may be put in a position where he feels forced to bring things to the floor for votes without full support of his caucus just to keep the government running. The next few months are gonna be full of fireworks regardless of how all this shakes out.
Veritigo_X
Member
BlastProcessing
Member
I dunno, I see GOP members issuing forth all sorts of vile stuff from their mouths all the time... Maybe the compromise is some sort of mouth shitting situation.
He's a moderate.
He already had a target on his back.
Searched for him on freerepublic and he is not very popular among the conservative base.
Zip-a-Dee-Doo-Dah...
I swear to god, they keep crushing that man's soul. No one deserves this shit.
CharlieDigital
Banned
That's what's scary about this whole situation: the most unlikely outcome -- seems to me -- is that Congress shifts more moderate and more towards bipartisanship. Seems like this small faction of Tea Party Congress members will pull the whole thing to the right.
~Devil Trigger~
In favor of setting Muslim women on fire
Welcome to the fucked side of town, lol.
People have been saying this about both parties forever. The last time it happened, we had a civil war immediately after.
It only depends on where the money goes.
Right now there are more Republicans in the house since WW2. In order to keep that number high they placated to the conservative wing and then they took over.
TheGreatLugia
Banned
The Progressive Party, maybe? Granted that didn't last very long.
I'd argue it started even further back than that -- Robert Taft was happy to coalition with segregationist (virtually all who filibustered anti-lynching legislation) and isolationist Democrats to block FDR's agenda, and after the shocking results of the 1948 election, elements in the party realized there was a hell of a lot more electoral potential from Dixiecrats than there was from disaffected Henry Wallace supporters.
The populist fervor against so called "Jewish Bolsheviks" in society transmogrified into the McCarthyism of the 50s, but socially conservative groups had been moving away from the Democrats as early as the 30s. FDR's Secretary of the Interior, Howard Ickes, desegregated the National Parks system and rebuked the Daughters of the American Revolution for refusing to grant a concert to Marion Anderson.
WELCOME TO THE HOTEL CALIFORNIA
UnforgivenTwin
Member
Is there a real chance of Chafetz getting the position?
brianmcdoogle
Member
Robert Costa, conservative reporter for the Washington Post is reporting on twitter that Boehner is trying to get Ryan to be the Speaker.
Probably not but before this I don't think anybody expected McCarthy to drop out so who knows what is going to happen next?
Maybe the conservatives manage to drag the party their way but the speaker nominee needs 218 votes to get elected, there are 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats in the house.
You've got the 40 some odd in the freedom caucus that stopped McCarthy's nomination but I'd at least like to imagine that in the other 200 Republicans there are enough moderates left in the house that'd say no and as unlikely as it is just maybe reach over the aisle to reach a deal to get a moderate Republican speaker in place in exchange for some sort of concession.
Rather unlikely but at this point who knows?
Or maybe nothing happens and Boehner gets the short end of the stick and gets the fantastic position of being stuck as speaker for the rest of his life.
Honestly if you can't control the fringes of the GOP right now Ryan is better being chair of Ways and Means.
What good does controlling the bills brought to the table when half of the members of your party want you gone every vote.
Ryan knows that.
hydrophilic attack
Member
Will the Tea Party fraction allow any establishment guy to become Speaker? And would the establishment wing allow any Tea Party guy become speaker.
Ultra-lolz scenario: Republicans are unable to give any candidate enough votes, and we get Speaker Pelosi with some support from a few moderate republicans.
Ultra-lolz scenario: Republicans are unable to give any candidate enough votes, and we get Speaker Pelosi with some support from a few moderate republicans.
LudicrousSpeed
Member
Why would they want the job?
If you do the responsible thing and keep the country from nose diving into crisis, you piss off the hard right and ensure that you won't survive your next primary.
If you accede to what the crazies want, you crater the country's economy, which pisses off the GOP's business interests who actually bankroll the party.
There is no real advantage to be had for any Republican to be the Speaker right now. You're way better off staying out of actual power, letting you talk out of both sides of your mouth since you lack the power to actually move the needle.
CharlieDigital
Banned
Pick a Democrat! Then they can just blame the other party for the shitfest that is the House!
bodyofanamerican
Member
Costa:
LudicrousSpeed
Member
No go. Speaker of the House requires a majority of those voting. The only way a Democrat could win the Speakership is if a significant number of GOPers either voted for the Democrat or they abstained, in which case they'll get blamed just as much as if they'd directly voted for the Democrat.
If a ballot is conducted and no candidate has a majority, they keep voting until someone does.
djplaeskool
Member
Cymbal Head
Banned
Hahaha what a mess.
The schadenfreude is strong.
The schadenfreude is strong.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
The problem is that the Freedom Caucus will only support a speaker who commits to shutting down the government. Everybody on the planet knows that's a good way to end every political aspiration you'll ever have.
Veritigo_X
Member
Rumors are floating around that the Benghazi gaffe isn't the issue...
Red State had an article up about an affair between him and Renee Ellmers, but they've since removed it.
bodyofanamerican
Member
It also could just as easily be the tea party wing seeing weakness in the establishment and looking to take over. No matter what it is, this is going to be one hell of a book in a few years.
djplaeskool
Member
Ryan has huge political aspirations for the future I think. Whoever becomes the leader of the shitfest that is the deadlocked House cannot possibly have a decent political future. I can't imagine Ryan even reluctantly throwing his hat in the ring.
EDIT - Ryan clearing his schedule? Shows how very little I know
EDIT - Ryan clearing his schedule? Shows how very little I know
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Between Webster and him, Webster seems the most likely to get McCarthy's vote in the inner-party election, and he's probably tea party enough to not get blocked in the confirmation vote.
Though it seems more likely they'll have to either find someone else or keep Boehner tied to the chair.
It's the tail trying to wag the dog. They're basically trying to pressure the moderate Republicans to bend over backwards to them. It's definitely a power play, because they know that they've forced a situation where the 30-40 of them can define the agenda for the entire nation.
It's kind of stunning we've reached the point that being bipartisan is seen as such a grave sin that they're probably right.
However, that being said, I wouldn't be shocked if the affair story is now being pushed by them.
Why? Plenty of conservative constituents want the government shut down. The GOP succeeded doing that in 2013 and was rewarded with scores of wins, including a Senate takeover, the following year.
It could be they found the affair and decided to use it to their advantage like some House of Cards shit. That wouldn't shock me in the slightest.
But it will murder them in the general. Keep in mind that the midterm electorate is far smaller than the general election electorate, it also skews older and more conservative. That's why they won seats, not because they shut down the government.
DirtyManos
Member
Wasn't the other reason they won that midterm was that the seats that were up for election were already leaning conservative anyway, and only featured vulnerable Dems that already had a chance to lose?
LudicrousSpeed
Member
Don't confuse the midterm electorate with the Presidential Election electorate.
Midterms basically always involve the party that doesn't control the Presidency gaining seats. It's not so much that the general public clamored for more shutdown, but that the midterm electorate was largely folks getting out to vote because they were Mad About Obama.
This is why the party leadership is desperate to avoid a shutdown in proximity to the general election. Shutting down the government would lead to an election ala the Blue Wave of 2008. In other words, it would be basically as unpopular as George W. Bush.
EDIT:
Yes, when it comes to the Senate. Senate seats up for grabs in 2014 were the beneficaries of the Blue Wave of 2008.
Pretty much, due to the redistricting.
One of the congressmen on CNN is saying that McCarthy was still campaigning for the spot until three hours before the vote and that he blindsided everybody.
It really looks like someone blackmailed/leaked him with the affair and he backed out.
Yea, someone totally threatened to leak the story to the press then. That's a fast turnaround.
Veritigo_X
Member
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