September 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes October 13th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Yeah, I forgot. Includes 4 older games as well. A pretty sweet deal for $349, really.
Because COD & Star Wars bundles are more popular than Halo , (especially with a Star Wars movie releasing)sorry if that stings but people are going to want to play on the system their friends own. halo is not the super juggernaut anymore, the FPS genre has evolved, Halo actually has comp, and let's not forget what happened last time it went up against a treyarch COD game.
History could repeat itself again
Sony has bundles for every major first person shooter not named halo 5, sales wise, that's a big deal
i still think halo/Microsoft will win October, and that's about it
I don't think Battlefront has more appeal than Halo. Star Wars is a bigger IP overall, but not in videogames.
Nightengale
Member
The bet on Battlefront here is a combination of Disney's unquestionably humongous EpVII marketing, as well as EA's own massive marketing on Battlefront to create a dynamo effect.
The Star Wars IP is much bigger in scope than Halo, I don't think that's something to be discredited even if it's not as closely associated with video games.
At a time when Star Wars marketing is at it's peak and a highly anticipated movie is right around the corner, having the words "Star Wars" on the box of a video game console is big, big business.
OK, well you let me know the last time a Battlefront game came out at the same time a new star wars movie came out, a product that is fueled by double the hype.
Battlefront = easy to pick up, easy to play, adapts to all play styles, ads(cope), aiming from the hip, could be played in first or 3rd person view.
Halo = the game we all played before better options came around.
Younger audiences would gravitate towards star wars over halo I believe, parents may not pick up "another broken halo gsme" after the MCC diabolical
Looking at Nielsen research for holiday 2015, Battlefront hype is not so hot. Of course when the heavy marketing starts more people will look, but still I believe the game will be relegated as 3rd shooter option on Xbox One and 2nd on PS4.
Sales will be great of course and PS4 bundle for $349 (or less in BF, other deals) will be a great option for pick a current gen console, but that's it, sales of Black Ops 3 will be even bigger and Halo 5 will be bigger on Xbox.
I wouldn't take the actual percentage literally in regards to ranking games.
Instead group them as it says in to in the report. So anything above 90 is high anticipation. Anything above 80 is strong anticipation etc....
The survey isn't accurate enough for us to differntiate between 2% or so difference.
Battlefront doesn't even have a single player campaign, this is a deal breaker for part of the public. That's anecdotal but I know people that aren't buying because of that and I don't think is a isolated case.
Black Ops III is the main FPS for the holiday season and Halo 5 is more appealing for Xbox One owners than Battlefront.
I think COD will still sell more but it will be close. They both will probably outsell battlefront in the XB1
The real question is, will either of them be able to dethrone destiny as the top played game for an extended amount of time
Well most COD games sold more on Xbox 360 than Halo 3 or 4.
I expect to see that happen again.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Don't underestimate CoD and Battlefront.
It should really go without saying.
It should really go without saying.
Hi mate,
What do you think about extending the prediction date to the 18th or something?
On the one hand, the release date is pushed out to Monday, so we could move it to Saturday (the 17th) and get the same separation between cutoff and release date as normal. On the other hand, the thread was already started early. Have to think about it. If it did move, it'd probably move to the 17th, though.
This November, the name alone will probably sell a shitload of copies and move tons of units. Battlefront and its bundles will not appeal to just gamers, but pretty much anyone interested in Star Wars IMO. I just think the hype for Star Wars will be beyond massive this holiday season.
Sangetsu-II
Member
TitanFall didn't have a single player campaign either and that managed to sell 10 million, your telling me a bigger known IP with double the marketing force won't push better numbers for PS4 than TitanFall did to XB1?
I don't think we ever got it confirmed it was sold 10 mil did we? I thought everyone was unsure if it was 10 mil sales or 10 mil unique users.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Pretty much. That movie is going to send Battlefront into space. Imagine if the bundle is promoted at theaters. On top of the price cut? It's over.
CoD gonna CoD.
The marketing for the movie already started? I'm not feeling any hype for the movie (or at least not like with Avenger 2).
I think that most COD games were bundled with X360.
That's not the case anymore. With heavy bundling, and in the US only, I can see maybe Halo selling more than CoD...
That's not the case. There were Special Edition bundles for Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2 & 3, but no normal system bundles I can remember that included a Call of Duty iirc. It wasn't a normal pack-in for any long stretch of the systems life at the very least..
CoD sold because it's CoD, not because it came with a system.
Katana_Strikes
Member
There was no 10m copies sold. It was 10m*
They could cut their marketing budget in half and the new movie would still be ridiculously successful based on nostalgia. No doubt in my mind nostalgia
(and Chris Pratt)
And I know people who won't be buying halo 5 due to lack of split screen, but guess what two games offer split screen? You got it, COD and Battlefront.
Actually COD has not been at their peak because Infinity Ward and Sledgehammer make horrible COD games. Treyarch on the other hand caters to the fans and e-sports scene. Treyarch games also sell more than past COD games due to the inclusion of their Zombie mode, a game mode people buy the game for and only play that (which this time will actually have a campaign and leveling system) a game mode often copied in name only, by the latter two publishers, they of course fail at the magic touch.
COD tournaments will be held on PS4, they will no longer be played on Xbox One, that will be a dramatic shift as well. Couple that with Sony getting the maps first this time, people maybe under estimating how much Sony is going to crush comp in November.
No, with micro transactions fueling that games DLC now, and how much that game can change over the course of the year? People will play COD/Halo/Battlefront.... But they will all come back to Destiny, a game you could fall behind in as far as meta, weapon quest lines ect ect. I wouldn't doubt if Bungie released the newest Raids hard mode the day Halo 5 releases.
Titanfall was also sold around the $20 range for a majority of its life. On 3 consoles during a horrible 2 game COD cycle. Not to mention there was really nothing else to play on Xbox One at the time if you were into that type of thing.
The marketing for the movie doesn't even have to start, it's star wars, but yes a trailer released last year for the movie, hype is through the roof for star wars, as it has been in the past, as it always will be in its life line.
Yes, that will be interesting as there are people who only play COD on last gen 360, and this will be the first time in 10 years they will not get maps first, the COD affect can and probably will influence bundle sales well into the next year (first dlc usually drops in january/Feb, pushing xbox 360 owners to March)
If you stream, you can't be 30 days behind, you need the new maps when they come out.
By the same token, Halo is not at its peak anymore either, as far as we know. And it's following a giant bungle last year.
Giriath_89
Member
It may be important to remember the different prices of the COD, Battlefront and Halo bundles when discussing their appeal. Currently, the lowest price bundle for each is: Battlefront $349, COD $429 and finally Halo $499.
I would be surprised if COD and Halo don't get cheaper standard bundles or get the game included in already existing bundles.
I would be surprised if COD and Halo don't get cheaper standard bundles or get the game included in already existing bundles.
Yeah, the current Halo and CoD bundles are "Limited" bundles, which is why they are at a premium. Star Wars has two standard game bundles for Battlefront and Disney Infinity, and also a limited bundle for Battlefront.
The standard Battlefront bundle should sell like crazy.
slavesnyder
Member
I would prefer NPD data from the future.
Yeah, about that.
Sangetsu-II
Member
lol, 3 posts and still getting the same reply. Yup I might've been wrong on that.
EdReedFan20
Member
I'm thinking PS4 for October, too. And my reasoning is due to the two extremes of October. The PS4 price drop happened towards the beginning of the October. It gets almost a full month of boosted sales. Halo 5 releases towards the end of October (October 27th) with 5 days remaining in the month. I think Halo makes it full impact in November and December, not October. As such, I think November and December should be a toss up. Either PS4 or XB1 will win, but not by a landslide. I think it will be much, much closer than last year.
Honestly. If Xbox can't win with Halo releasing this month then the PS4 IMO wins Nov and Dec.
Sure Xboxes will continue to sell in Nov and Dec with the help of Halo but this month it's their biggest IP by far. If Sony wins this month with a price drop and the Uncharted Bundle. I just don't see how they "lose" Nov and by extension Dec. Battlefront and COD will go a long way for them along with other retailer promotions.
Both consoles will sell great.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Agreed. I do not see either one considerably outselling the other like last year. Both of them have far too much going for them this year.
But yeah, roughly three weeks of the PS4's first price cut vs Halo 5 buildup over the last few months and the last few days of October after launch.
The X1 got an explosive boost from the first price cut. The PS4 will see similar results that will outdo the boost from Halo 5.
EdReedFan20
Member
Black Friday will be lots of fun. I can't wait to see how insane the deals go. I said in the PS4 price drop thread, I could see retailers doing deals with the $350 bundles (Uncharted or Battlefront) that includes 2 extra games (Maybe Call of Duty: Black Ops III, Assassin's Creed: Syndicate, Destiny: The Taken King, or Blooborne (with Bloodborne: The Old Hunters expansion if it is out in time)) and a 12 month subscription for $400. Or maybe they could drop one of the extra games and keep it at $350.
I pretty much agree with this. I wonder how many pre-orders the Halo 5 bundle has; Xbox One sales during the week of Halo 5's launch should be the highest they've ever been this year so far for a single week.
Imo, Sony wins every month this end of year unless the XB1 gets a price drop, which I expect in early Nov.
October will see three weeks of price cut for the PS4, including a 2 days of $299 equivalent at Target, and two best selling bundles at that price with "free" software (TLOU & UC collection).
Nov& Dec: At the current price, the only cost appealing the XB1 would have are the old Lego and Gears remake bundles @$349.
That's a losing proposition I think, specially vs Battlefront PS4 same price.
Tldr: $50 drop for MS or bust (imo)
October will see three weeks of price cut for the PS4, including a 2 days of $299 equivalent at Target, and two best selling bundles at that price with "free" software (TLOU & UC collection).
Nov& Dec: At the current price, the only cost appealing the XB1 would have are the old Lego and Gears remake bundles @$349.
That's a losing proposition I think, specially vs Battlefront PS4 same price.
Tldr: $50 drop for MS or bust (imo)
EdReedFan20
Member
That's very possible. But is that one week enough to top a whole month where PS4 gets a price drop (and co-marketing with Ubisoft for Assassin's Creed: Unity, if it's a needle mover)? I think it would've been somewhat close without a price drop. That's why I think November will be the bigger month for Microsoft. Halo will have been out for five days. Rise of the Tomb Raider will come out (they obviously have that big timed-exclusive deal with that) and they have the co-marketing with Bethesda with Fallout 4 (and a bundle, too I think), which comes out the same day as ROTTR, I think. In November Sony has the co-marketing with EA for Star Wars: Battlefront, Activision for Call of Duty: Black Ops III. It will be fun to see what happens. Also, not sure about this, but does Sony also have co-marketing with Square Enix on Just Cause 3? All promotional material I've seen for the game shows PS4 as the lead game box and typically the front box usually indicates which manufacturer has the co-marketing deal.
DriftingSpirit
Member
http://www.dealzon.com/deals/cheap-playstation-4#ps4-lg-tv-bundle
I guess someone could make a thread for this. I'm still too young to make threads.
I guess someone could make a thread for this. I'm still too young to make threads.
Welfare
Member
Reminder that in the final week of October for the Xbox One, Halo 5 launches and there will be 2 bundles, the 3 game Holiday bundle for $399 and the Kinect bundle for $499. This will also be the second week of sales for the Halo bundle and sales should pick up for the Lego bundle as the holidays start.
EdReedFan20
Member
Didn't realize the Halo 5 Bundle releases on the 20th. Would you be surprised if some hardcore Halo fans, who already own the system, buy that bundle (to get the game a whole week earlier than everyone else) and then sell the system (sans game) on EBay (or wherever else)?
The Halo 5 bundle has been available for pre-order since the first week of August. Combine that with people getting a regular Xbox One SKU alongside Halo this month and I think it's definitely possible.
Yeah, November will definitely be a bigger month for the system just due to Holiday shopping alone.
I'm not sure since I haven't really been following previews of the game. I wouldn't be surprised though.
Welfare
Member
The bundle doesn't allow players to play Halo 5 a week early, you can just pre load it.
There will definitely be some fans that will get the system and sell their original Xbox One, but the majority of the sales will be from people that have waited.
EdReedFan20
Member
Ah. Okay.
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