September 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes October 13th

slavesnyder said:
Okay, already thought something like that.
But you see that 2014 was really heavily towards PS4, while 2015 so far was not as extreme. Call it hardselling Xbox, weak PS4, off season or saviour spencer.
Personally, I also predicted a 100k+ gap, but it's not for sure.
Click to expand...

Definitively, PS4 was selling usually nearly 2:1 compared to XB1, now, the recently months both are really close, even in June with Batman the gap was not massive.
But is important to mention that in 2014 XB1 holidays was really strong, compared to a "mediocre" PS4 holidays season, that's not gonna happen this year.
 
nvm

Edit: Sorry mods, I was just trying to make a joke.

On topic: Talking about the earlier discussion about PS4 domination during pre-season 2014, it was able to do it because of $100 price advantage for most of the year. This year it has had $50 price disadvantage for the most of the year and it still sold little bit better.
 
These late NPD results are unhealthy. Constantly thinking back and forth about correcting my numbers.
Hope they get their system running, so we can do this early like we used to.

By the way: When are we expecting the new Nintendo console?
 
slavesnyder said:
These late NPD results are unhealthy. Constantly thinking back and forth about correcting my numbers.
Hope they get their system running, so we can do this early like we used to.

By the way: When are we expecting the new Nintendo console?
Click to expand...
I think it will be here holiday 2016. I do not see how Nintendo can go with the Wii U any longer.
 
slavesnyder said:
These late NPD results are unhealthy. Constantly thinking back and forth about correcting my numbers.
Hope they get their system running, so we can do this early like we used to.

By the way: When are we expecting the new Nintendo console?
Click to expand...

They will release a portable and a home console... both in 2016, or the portable in 2016 and the home in 2017.

slavesnyder said:
Makes sense. You cannot imagine a better launch title.
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Splatoon 2. This will sell WAY more than all Zelda. It will probabily be the second or third best sellers game on NX.

P.S

Hey, now i am a member. :D
 
Hi all,

Going to extend the predictions out to Thursday, October 15 at 8 p.m. EDT. The reasoning is that most everyone that normally predicts would've done so by this evening, anyways, but with the NPD release pushed back, can give an extra couple of days to anyone who would've otherwise just missed the cutoff time. Feel free to edit your predictions until Thursday, then. (^_^)
 
slavesnyder said:
Are you ironic?
Click to expand...

Dude... seriusly? i mean...

splatoon-mario-kart-8-sales-japan-640x412.jpg


...The only ironic here is who think Zelda will sell more than Splatoon... i don't even think Zelda will sell half of Splatoon on the NX.
 
Ryng_Tolu said:
...The only ironic here is who think Zelda will sell more than Splatoon... i don't even think Zelda will sell half of Splatoon on the NX.
Click to expand...
Nothing against Splatoon, but i'd disagree. Still too far away for an avatar bet I guess.
If next zelda only looks half as good as the trailer suggests it will sell amazingly.
 
Ryng_Tolu said:
Dude... seriusly? i mean...

splatoon-mario-kart-8-sales-japan-640x412.jpg


...The only ironic here is who think Zelda will sell more than Splatoon... i don't even think Zelda will sell half of Splatoon on the NX.
Click to expand...

Zelda will sell more than Splatoon. People have been waiting for a non-motion controls Zelda for almost ten years.
 
slavesnyder said:
Nothing against Splatoon, but i'd disagree. Still too far away for an avatar bet I guess.
If next zelda only looks half as good as the trailer suggests it will sell amazingly.
Click to expand...

Just no. Splatoon is already selling like crazy, and on Wii U, a console with a small userbase. On the NX Splatoon will sell like a monster. Of course depend if the NX is a success, but still, no way for Zelda beat Splatoon.

Splatoon is just a bigger game. It's probabily the fourth bigger Nintendo IP currently, only Mario, Smash, and Pokémon are bigger.

Splatoon will outsell Zelda, and i don't think will be close.

WaffleTaco said:
Zelda will sell more than Splatoon. People have been waiting for a non-motion controls Zelda for almost ten years.
Click to expand...

Wanna avatar bet? About Splatoon to sell more than Zelda on the NX.
 
Ryng_Tolu said:
Just no. Splatoon is already selling like crazy, and on Wii U, a console with a small userbase. On the NX Splatoon will sell like a monster. Of course depend if the NX is a success, but still, no way for Zelda beat Splatoon.

Splatoon is just a bigger game. It's probabily the fourth bigger Nintendo IP currently, only Mario, Smash, and Pokémon are bigger.

Splatoon will outsell Zelda, and i don't think will be close.



Wanna avatar bet? About Splatoon to sell more than Zelda on the NX.
Click to expand...

Animal Crossing>Splatoon :P
 
Ryng_Tolu said:
Splatoon 2. This will sell WAY more than all Zelda. It will probabily be the second or third best sellers game on NX.
Click to expand...

Splatoon 2 or the next mainline Zelda game after 5 years (assuming NX is a home console and launches this year). I think I know what I'm picking.

donny2112 said:
Hi all,

Going to extend the predictions out to Thursday, October 15 at 8 p.m. EDT. The reasoning is that most everyone that normally predicts would've done so by this evening, anyways, but with the NPD release pushed back, can give an extra couple of days to anyone who would've otherwise just missed the cutoff time. Feel free to edit your predictions until Thursday, then. (^_^)
Click to expand...
Great, more time to ponder on if I should mess with my prediction. Thanks, donny.

Thank you.
 
Welfare said:
Splatoon 2 or the next mainline Zelda game after 5 years (assuming NX is a home console and launches this year). I think I know what I'm picking.
Click to expand...

People seriusly never stop to underestimate Splatoon. :-|
Splatoon on Wii U is gonna sell over 5 million, and this with a super small userbase. On the NX Splatoon will be MASSIVE. Hard predict the numbers since we don't know how NX will sell, but let's say we will see 30-50 million for NX LT ( which is likely for me ) Splatoon 2 will probabily sell 7-12 million. This is Smash Bros level!

We will see most likely: Splatoon NX > Splatoon Wii U > Zelda NX > Zelda Wii U

There is no competition, Splatoon is too big for Zelda.
 
Ryng_Tolu said:
People seriusly never stop to underestimate Splatoon. :-|
Splatoon on Wii U is gonna sell over 5 million, and this with a super small userbase. On the NX Splatoon will be MASSIVE. Hard predict the numbers since we don't know how NX will sell, but let's say we will see 30-50 million for NX LT ( which is likely for me ) Splatoon 2 will probabily sell 7-12 million. This is Smash Bros level!

We will see most likely: Splatoon NX > Splatoon Wii U > Zelda NX > Zelda Wii U

There is no competition, Splatoon is too big for Zelda.
Click to expand...

How is Splatoon going to sell 5 million? Only game that has done that so far is Mario Kart 8, and the only region where Splatoon is doing better than MK8 is Japan.

Splatoon is doing well right now, but assuming it's going to achieve that high number when the Wii U successor should be close by and that it'll do more than Zelda is kinda, well, hmm.

Don't overestimate Splatoon.
 
slavesnyder said:
Come on, Nintendo. This Gen has lasted too long already.

This is for you Ryng_Tolu
http://i.imgur.com/u0KIYhR.png
Click to expand...

Coll. :P

Welfare said:
How is Splatoon going to sell 5 million? Only game that has done that so far is Mario Kart 8, and the only region where Splatoon is doing better than MK8 is Japan.

Splatoon is doing well right now, but assuming it's going to achieve that high number when the Wii U successor should be close by and that it'll do more than Zelda is kinda, well, hmm.

Don't overestimate Splatoon.
Click to expand...

I don't overestimate Splatoon, you guys since the annunced underestimate it's sales, and since that it's always sold more than what people said.

Mario Kart has sold BY END OF JUNE 5.43 million, and is still selling, Nintendo ship 320k last quarter, Mario Kart 8 should be at near 6.5 million by end of year and near 8 million lifetime.

A lot of games on Wii U will pass 5 million, Mario 3DWorld, Mario Bros U, Nintendo Land, and Smash Bros for sure. Probabily 6 games on Wii U will sell over 5 million.

Here you can see my Splatoon prediction

12140683_153818984965162_814820351589152646_n.jpg


By end of 2015 Splatoon should be over 3.5 million, and by June 2016 should pass 4 million.
Then, with another holidays sales, will pass 5 million.
 
If we are expecting Nintendo to launch a new console by the end of 2016, how does the WiiU compare to, lets say, the GameCube or any other not so sucessful Nintendo console, regarding their lifespan? Will it be the fastest to be killed off? Obviously I am not taking into consideration "consoles" like VirtuaBoy.
 
Ryng_Tolu said:
Just for fun, i wanna know what's you'r Splatoon prediction for the end of the year, and for lifetime sales.
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3,5 and 4
and this is a phantastic result for a new IP on such a weak selling console.

you should not compare it to Mario Kart. That's unfair.
Mario Kart is like Nintendo's MS office.
 
slavesnyder said:
3,5 and 4
and this is a phantastic result for a new IP on such a weak selling console.

you should not compare it to Mario Kart. That's unfair.
Mario Kart is like Nintendo's MS office.
Click to expand...

Well, i can assure you that 3.5 million is impossible. Like 4 million.
Remember this word. Splatoon will sell MINIMUM 4.5 million.
I don't say will sell for sure 5 million, BUT, less than 4.5 million is impossible.

I save this comment for the the years to come. I will become a legend in this site. :D
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmSu2ENJL8A

That said, i think we should back on topic, if you guys want continue, use MP.
 
Ryng_Tolu said:
Well, i can assure you that 3.5 million is impossible. Like 4 million.
Remember this word. Splatoon will sell MINIMUM 4.5 million.
I don't say will sell for sure 5 million, BUT, less than 4.5 million is impossible.
Click to expand...

hey, cool. we can make another bet.
this time even with a result in this decade...

Back to topic.
Question to the wise men:
Have we seen all official bundles for this year? Or is there still something hidden in the bushes?
 
So, a couple things to note.
Third parties aren't owed an explanation nor given details of other people's bans in general.
And metacommentary about bans and moderation are considered thread derailing, and will be removed as such.

You can all resume discussing the actual topic of the thread now.
 
Ryng_Tolu said:
People seriusly never stop to underestimate Splatoon. :-|
Splatoon on Wii U is gonna sell over 5 million, and this with a super small userbase. On the NX Splatoon will be MASSIVE. Hard predict the numbers since we don't know how NX will sell, but let's say we will see 30-50 million for NX LT ( which is likely for me ) Splatoon 2 will probabily sell 7-12 million. This is Smash Bros level!

We will see most likely: Splatoon NX > Splatoon Wii U > Zelda NX > Zelda Wii U

There is no competition, Splatoon is too big for Zelda.
Click to expand...

I don't want to avatar bet or anything but I think your expectations for Splatoon NX are inflated on account of the fact that Splatoon is a game that appeals very much to the current userbase of Wii U owners. So the expanded audience that the NX will hopefully have probably won't be as receptive to it.

That being said even disregarding Splatoon NX I doubt Splatoon Wii U will sell more than Zelda NX, but I don't have the sales numbers memorized so I could be totally wrong.
 
Given the ongoing discussion about the "hype" for Halo feeling low for many I decided to do a quick and dirty check on the twitter trends for Halo 5 vs CoD vs Battlefront. The results paint a pretty clear picture. One that I think echos the sentiment of many in this very thread.

ZLmhL2i.png
Click to expand...

The battlefront beta certainly gave it a mindshare boost and while that seems to be dropping off it has certainly escalated far past Halos numbers. Likewise the launch trailer seems to have given Halo a noticeable bump in attention but still pales in comparison to the numbers CoD and Battlefront have drawn. This is especially surprising to me considering how close Halo is to release at this point. What do you all think?
 
RexNovis said:
Given the ongoing discussion about the "hype" for Halo feeling low for many I decided to do a quick and dirty check on the twitter trends for Halo 5 vs CoD vs Battlefront. The results paint a pretty clear picture. One that I think echos the sentiment of many in this very thread.



The battlefront beta certainly gave it a mindshare boost and while that seems to be dropping off it has certainly escalated far past Halos numbers. Likewise the launch trailer seems to have given Halo a noticeable bump in attention but still pales in comparison to the numbers CoD and Battlefront have drawn. This is especially surprising to me considering how close Halo is to release at this point. What do you all think?
Click to expand...

It's tough with things like this I feel like, because what happens if you include "halo" with "halo 5"? Or "blops" with "cod"? Or other hashtags that the marketing dept has come up with (#huntthetruth or whatever the halo one is)? I just don't know how much it indicates total interest, but the graph does at least show general trends (like the beta and launch trailers).
 
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