September 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes October 13th

TLOU is more popular than Uncharted.
More praised too.

I don't if eithert those statements are 100 percent true. Uncharted 2 is still highest rated Naughty Dog game of last generation and I don't think the sales of TLOU are that far ahead of Uncharted 3 either. I would say hype/anticipation for Uncharted 4 is through the roof. I think TLOU bundle iss selling better simply because it is a newer game.
 
Xbone is going to win October and it won't be close.

You guys keep underestimating the power of Halo and you're gonna end up very disappointed.

Quoted for bookmarks. Finally NPD threads will become the bloodbaths i grew accustomed to over the years once more.
 
I don't if eithert those statements are 100 percent true. Uncharted 2 is still highest rated Naughty Dog game of last generation and I don't think the sales of TLOU are that far ahead of Uncharted 3 either. I would say hype/anticipation for Uncharted 4 is through the roof. I think TLOU bundle iss selling better simply because it is a newer game.
TLOU officially crossed 7 million units at PS4 version launch (June 2014)... Uncharted series crossed 21m in early 2015 (3 games are counted).
TLOU indeed won more critical awards than than any Uncharted... it is considered GOTG from a lot of media.
TLOU is more popular than Uncharted... critical and controversial too.
 
Uncharted series sold 21 million, with 3 games. So, yes, AT LEAST one Uncharted sold over 7 million.
4 games and it is early 2015 (March if I'm not wrong).
How many do you think TLOU sold from June 2014 to March 2015? The PS4 bundle was popular at holidays 2014.

Edit - 3 games.
 
4 games and it is early 2015 (March if I'm not wrong).
How many do you think TLOU sold from June 2014 to March 2015? The PS4 bundle was popular at holidays 2014.

3 games, not 4, those sales don't include GA.

I agree about TLOU > Uncharted , i was just correct you about Uncharted sales. :)
 
It seems crazy to me that MS are not releasing a standard Xbox One with Halo 5 for $350. Or Halo 5 + MCC for $399. I may be wrong but is Halo 5 only being offered as part of the expensive Ltd edition bundle?
 
Xbone is going to win October and it won't be close.

You guys keep underestimating the power of Halo and you're gonna end up very disappointed.

Beginning of the month, I'd have probably agreed with you, although I never thought the gap would be huge.

Looking at sales trends/word of mouth halfway through the month? Xbox is absolutely capable of losing October.
 
You have to also remember that the Halo bundle was a BIG seller (#24 on monthly) during its debut month. All the preorders prior to this month wont be showing up on the October charts. As such these charts might not provide as accurate of a sales barometer this time around

Great point, dude. I tend to forget that as well. Xbox will PROBABLY win October. Will it be the runaway victory some people seem to think? Not even close. Could PS4 eke out a win? Absolutely.

You know.......

........it's gonna be interesting.
 
TLOU benefited greatly from all the buzz ND was getting thanks to Uncharted. I think it was a spill over of all the hype the Uncharted franchise created, coupled with the critical acclaim and word of mouth, what made the game such a great success.

Uncharted 4 will also benefit from all that hype that TLOU helped reinforce.

My point is that TLOU wouldn't have sold that well if it's wasn't for Uncharted. I believe that Uncharted is a far bigger franchise in general.
 
Given the ongoing discussion about the "hype" for Halo feeling low for many I decided to do a quick and dirty check on the twitter trends for Halo 5 vs CoD vs Battlefront. The results paint a pretty clear picture. One that I think echos the sentiment of many in this very thread.



The battlefront beta certainly gave it a mindshare boost and while that seems to be dropping off it has certainly escalated far past Halos numbers. Likewise the launch trailer seems to have given Halo a noticeable bump in attention but still pales in comparison to the numbers CoD and Battlefront have drawn. This is especially surprising to me considering how close Halo is to release at this point. What do you all think?

I don't think using Twitter is the best way to analyze this.
 
Given the ongoing discussion about the "hype" for Halo feeling low for many I decided to do a quick and dirty check on the twitter trends for Halo 5 vs CoD vs Battlefront. The results paint a pretty clear picture. One that I think echos the sentiment of many in this very thread.



The battlefront beta certainly gave it a mindshare boost and while that seems to be dropping off it has certainly escalated far past Halos numbers. Likewise the launch trailer seems to have given Halo a noticeable bump in attention but still pales in comparison to the numbers CoD and Battlefront have drawn. This is especially surprising to me considering how close Halo is to release at this point. What do you all think?

Multiplats are going to generate more noise no doubt. Also IDK if twitter would mean too much here.
 
I still think Xbox wins October, but it's going to be a lot closer than anyone imagined, even considering it's Halo month.

November and December? I have no idea. I do think neither console is going to have a big gap over the other like Xbox did last year.
 
Xbone is going to win October and it won't be close.

You guys keep underestimating the power of Halo and you're gonna end up very disappointed.

May-The-Odds-Be-Ever-In-Your-Favor-GIF.gif


EDIT: For the record, I believe MS will win October, but it'll be VERY close.
 
TLOU is more popular because Zombies were very mainstream back in the 2012-2013 era leading up into release. The Walking Dead was exploding, World War Z was being released. People wanted a serious zombie game as well. Plus it had a great opener and finisher that kept people talking for months to come. While Uncharted is fun to play, it does not have nearly the amount of discussion that propelled TLOU into over-the-top mega franchise that Sony had been wanting.

Xbox won't take October, November or December either. They probably will not win another month of NPD until they price drop, and even then...that is highly debatable.
 
TLOU benefited greatly from all the buzz ND was getting thanks to Uncharted. I think it was a spill over of all the hype the Uncharted franchise created, coupled with the critical acclaim and word of mouth, what made the game such a great success.

Uncharted 4 will also benefit from all that hype that TLOU helped reinforce.

My point is that TLOU wouldn't have sold that well if it's wasn't for Uncharted. I believe that Uncharted is a far bigger franchise in general.
TLOU is to Uncharted what Red Dead Redemption was to GTA
Building something unique on a solid foundation.
And after that giving new impulses back.
 
Xbone is going to win October and it won't be close.

You guys keep underestimating the power of Halo and you're gonna end up very disappointed.

Halo is still big but there's many things going against it this generation for it to completely overshadow everything. This month PS4 has it's price cut. If XB1 does win i don't think the gap will be significant. I hope you're not expecting 200K or something?
 
Xbone is going to win October and it won't be close.

You guys keep underestimating the power of Halo and you're gonna end up very disappointed.

Is this a faith based prediction, or do you have evidence?
 
Xbone is going to win October and it won't be close.

You guys keep underestimating the power of Halo and you're gonna end up very disappointed.

Well, I'm not going to disagree with your prediction that the XBO will win October. However, I don't think it will easily run away with the victory.
 
Amazon October 2015 monthly update

1) #22 / PS4 Destiny: The Taken King
2) #26 / PS4 The Last of Us Remastered
3) #37 / XB1 Halo 5
4) #52 / PS4 The Nathan Drake Collection

BONUS
- # 29 / PS4 Star Wars Battlefront
- # 64 / PS4 Call of Duty: Black Ops 3
 
Halo is still big but there's many things going against it this generation for it to completely overshadow everything.

This is nothing but wishful thinking. Its the flagship franchise for the console, it will definitely overshadow anything else on the console. Is anything else coming out this month that is on the same level as Halo?

I can't see Sony's price cut having any effect on the outcome October is a lost cause.
 
Amazon October 2015 monthly update

1) #22 / PS4 Destiny: The Taken King
2) #26 / PS4 The Last of Us Remastered
3) #37 / XB1 Halo 5
4) #52 / PS4 The Nathan Drake Collection

BONUS
- # 29 / PS4 Star Wars Battlefront
- # 64 / PS4 Call of Duty: Black Ops 3

Finally, the Uncharted Bundle is reaching the others.
 
Amazon October 2015 monthly update

1) #22 / PS4 Destiny: The Taken King
2) #26 / PS4 The Last of Us Remastered
3) #37 / XB1 Halo 5
4) #52 / PS4 The Nathan Drake Collection

BONUS
- # 29 / PS4 Star Wars Battlefront
- # 64 / PS4 Call of Duty: Black Ops 3
We heard the argument that halo bundle will be fine because it had a lot of time to build up pre-sales in the previous months.
Anyone knows if and how the playstation bundles charted in the prior months? How about their pre-sales?
Or were they all created in october?
 
We heard the argument that halo bundle will be fine because it had a lot of time to build up pre-sales in the previous months.
Anyone knows if and how the playstation bundles charted in the prior months? How about their pre-sales?
Or were they all created in october?

Where's -he who shall not be named- when we need him?

And Abdiel with his Best Buy impressions?

And Doctor Professional with his new alt account?

And Aqua... oh yeah... never mind.

EDIT: I found some recent posts by Abdiel:

It's been a pretty busy weekend. Very busy.

Lots of PS4s going out the door. Talk about a kick start right before the holiday season kicks into full gear... It's going to be crazy.

(sigh) At least the overtime will be nice for my paychecks.

Well, it recovered from things after the whole tv deal, in terms of how drastic the drop off was. Back to relatively normal levels, though that's still behind 'normal' PS4 levels.

We've got pre orders coming up for the Halo Bundle on the 20th... But I mean, we're still taking orders for those, so it's not like we've hit any kind of limit or cap. And they certainly aren't pushing the Destiny bundle numbers from last year, if you want a comparison.

Though, interestingly, I checked this for my district, and we've got almost as many orders of Halo 5 as we do for CoD on the XB1, though PS4 orders of CoD are still higher. (Halo outweighed Battlefront on XB1 though, for further interesting anectdotes).
 
Amazon October 2015 monthly update

1) #22 / PS4 Destiny: The Taken King
2) #26 / PS4 The Last of Us Remastered
3) #37 / XB1 Halo 5
4) #52 / PS4 The Nathan Drake Collection

BONUS
- # 29 / PS4 Star Wars Battlefront
- # 64 / PS4 Call of Duty: Black Ops 3

It's amazing how good Destiny has been for the PS4. I bet it would still be the #1 PS4 bundle in the hourly charts if they had dropped it's price to $350 or even $400.
 
We heard the argument that halo bundle will be fine because it had a lot of time to build up pre-sales in the previous months.
Anyone knows if and how the playstation bundles charted in the prior months? How about their pre-sales?
Or were they all created in october?

Back on March 2015, the Batman bundle debut with 4/5 days ( i can't remember the day of the annunced, sorry haha ) at number #69

It was also #96 in April, and #70 the month of release ( June) .

At the end, in 2 weeks the Batman bundle sold 121,000.

Halo bundle comparation:
Month of the annunced ( August ) : #24
One month after annunced: out of TOP 100
Month of release: #37 ( So far )

Halo bundle in October has 2 weeks of sales, the same of Batman in June.
...Well, this probabily mean nothing haha, but at least we have some comparation. :)

It's amazing how good Destiny has been for the PS4. I bet it would still be the #1 PS4 bundle in the hourly charts if they had dropped it's price to $350 or even $400.

Agree with this. If even Destiny bundle was at $349, i was gonna say PS4 > XB1 in October.
 
This is nothing but wishful thinking. Its the flagship franchise for the console, it will definitely overshadow anything else on the console. Is anything else coming out this month that is on the same level as Halo?


Not specifically XB1. I meant in general. Yeah current owners will buy it but i don't think it's strong enough to give XB1 an easy win. XB1 doesn't have the advantages 360 had.



I can't see Sony's price cut having any effect on the outcome October is a lost cause.

The market leader having its first price cut won't mean for anything for October. Whishful what? lol.
 
I can't see Sony's price cut having any effect on the outcome October is a lost cause.

Of course it will. The PS4 will sell more at $349 than it would at $399. So even if XB1 sells more for the month, the gap will be less than it would have been without the price drop. That's obvious.
 
I can people having meltdowns even if Xbox One does win October NPD just because it won't be by as much as they hoped.

You're overestimating that amount greatly. The posters that are bound to melt will settle for the win at any cost :) A loss however....

There will definitely be a turn of heads if the Xbox One loses October that's for damn sure.

The Destiny bundle issue with Amazon at the very least is that, well, they're out of stock. Back-ordered to Oct 23rd. We'll see if they match the lower price then.

Anyone that works at Gamestop or Bestbuy can confirm that the Destiny bundle is still $399.99 per Sony's request or will the stores have to price lower at $349.99 if a consumer asks at check-out? I just find it hard to believe Sony would rather not drop the Destiny Bundle to $349.99 too.
 
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