September 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes October 13th

Hope NX will become the real new Wii, and will sell more than PS4 and XB1 combined all months, like the Wii was selling more than 360+PS3, those were good times :P and the NPD threads will back amazing. :D

They are gonna need 3rd party onboard to achieve this. Tbh I think the damage is done. I'm expecting similar performance to WiiU. They are pretty much selling to their base only right now.
 
Did Sony release no kid's bundle as MS did with the strange Lego one?
Missed opportunity or good choice?




They will have something around Black Friday. Last year, they had LBP3 with Lego Batman (I believe it was Lego Batman) bundled with a PS4. It wasn't revealed until Ads leaked. I know it was at Meijer. Doesn't help everyone, since Meijer is only in Central and Southern United States, but my best friend did pick that up for his kids.





But you are totally forgetting the Star Wars Bundle. THAT is for the kids, adults, EVERYONE. That will be the bundle for the kids.
 
Isn't the PS4 still selling more than PS2? (generations aligned)

If we are very honest, yes, globally, PS4 is still over PS2, but you know why?
Because for the firsts 6 months of comparation, PS2 is selling ONLY in Japan... In short, for the firsts 6 months we compare PS4 in US + EU + JP + other countries VS PS2 Japan only.
It's pretty obvius why PS4 is still over PS2... that said, the gap continue to decrease months after months, by 31 December 2015, PS4 will be under PS2 globally in the WW shipments, and since that, the gap will continue to rise.

But we are in the NPD thread, so, we should just talk about US... anyway, like Wefare said, PS4 in the US is now selling way less than the PS2.

It's sold always more for the firsts 4 months, but since the fifth, the PS2 has starting to close the gap, and PS2 passed PS4 LT sales in December 2014.

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The 23* months of sales, PS2 sold 455,000 in August NPD 2002, so, PS4 need >450k this month for beat PS2... can happen, but i don't think so.

Not in the US. Gap between the PS2 and PS4 at this point (August 02 V August 15) is just slightly below 2 million.

1.63 million, if we talk about firsts 22 months.

They are gonna need 3rd party onboard to achieve this. Tbh I think the damage is done. I'm expecting similar performance to WiiU. They are pretty much selling to their base only right now.

That's will never happen!!!
 
Not really a huge performance difference right now, especially considering PS2 had a much bigger price drop much earlier in the generation.

Doubtful PS4 reaches quite the sales levels PS2 did, but it's definitely dominating this generation with relative ease. If Sony were more aggressive on price cuts they probably could have matched or exceeded the performance, but they probably don't feel the need.
 
Not really a huge performance difference right now, especially considering PS2 had a much bigger price drop much earlier in the generation.

Doubtful PS4 reaches quite the sales levels PS2 did, but it's definitely dominating this generation with relative ease. If Sony were more aggressive on price cuts they probably could have matched or exceeded the performance, but they probably don't feel the need.

I don't think we can say PS4 is dominating this gen in the US.
The lifetime gap between XB1 and PS4 is just under 10%, and so far in 2015 XB1 sold 84% of PS4.

Of course, worldwide, is another story.
 
I don't think we can say PS4 is dominating this gen in the US.
The lifetime gap between XB1 and PS4 is just under 10%, and so far in 2015 XB1 sold 84% of PS4.

Of course, worldwide, is another story.

My numbers could be wrong, but didn't PS2 sell like 50M US, with XB and GC selling like 35-40M collectively? So PS2 had like 55% marketshare in NA.

That's not too far off from the situation now, only difference is XB1 is doing MUCH better than Wii U.
 
Hope NX will become the real new Wii, and will sell more than PS4 and XB1 combined all months, like the Wii was selling more than 360+PS3, those were good times :P and the NPD threads will back amazing. :D

It's launching mid generation. Installed bases for both will be too high for NX to change anything. Especially PS4.

A little too late for that.

I don't think we can say PS4 is dominating this gen in the US.
The lifetime gap between XB1 and PS4 is just under 10%, and so far in 2015 XB1 sold 84% of PS4.

Of course, worldwide, is another story.

From Sony's perspective i'm sure they're more than happy with U.S. sales coming from the way PS3 performed. As long as they're leading and not behind it's dominating to them. 360 outsold PS3 practically every month and the sales gap grew beyond 10 million. Those days are long gone.
 
Its too early for it to be reliable (for October that is), but as for past results, 22/23 correct, and the one missed was actually correct if you read between the lines (2 SKUs close by vs 1).

which month Amazon ranking turned out to be wrong to the NPD ranking?
 
Hope NX will become the real new Wii, and will sell more than PS4 and XB1 combined all months, like the Wii was selling more than 360+PS3, those were good times :P and the NPD threads will back amazing. :D

Nevah! Playstation as market leader is always the best, it pushes more announcements from japanese developers.
 
My numbers could be wrong, but didn't PS2 sell like 50M US, with XB and GC selling like 35-40M collectively? So PS2 had like 55% marketshare in NA.

That's not too far off from the situation now, only difference is XB1 is doing MUCH better than Wii U.

PS2 sold over 50,000,000 in NA, and around 46,000,000 in the US, with GC and XB which sold under 27,000,000. That's near 65% marketshare.
And XB / GC were pretty close, like you said, XB1 is selling way better than Wii U in the US, so, that's why we can't say PS4 domination is at PS2 level...

From Sony's perspective i'm sure they're more than happy with U.S. sales coming from the way PS3 performed. As long as they're leading and not behind it's dominating to them. 360 outsold PS3 practically every month and the sales gap grew beyond 10 million. Those days are long gone.

Didn't say that. Of course Sony is happy with PS4 US sales.

It's launching mid generation. Installed bases for both will be too high for NX to change anything. Especially PS4.

A little too late for that.

I was joking with that comment :) NX ( home ) will never sell at Wii level haha, but will definitive doing better than Wii U. I hope in N64 numbers in the US, which was very strong.

Playstation as market leader is always the best, it pushes more announcements from japanese developers.

lol
 
PS2 sold over 50,000,000 in NA, and around 46,000,000 in the US, with GC and XB which sold under 27,000,000. That's near 65% marketshare.
And XB / GC were pretty close, like you said, XB1 is selling way better than Wii U in the US, so, that's why we can't say PS4 domination is at PS2 level...





Didn't say that. Of course Sony is happy with PS4 US sales.



I was joking with that comment :) NX ( home ) will never sell at Wii level, but will definitive doing better than Wii U. I hope in N64 numbers in the US, which was very strong.



lol

What's so lol about this?
 
which month Amazon ranking turned out to be wrong to the NPD ranking?

In April '15, Amazon ranking showed PS4 #1 (overall ranking #41), but if you looked closely, the XB1 had two SKUs nearby, at #42 and #52. The XB1 ended up winning the NPD with a difference of about 13k units.

What's so lol about this?

Don't mind Ryng Tolu too much, as he has been pretty clear about his "preferences'" up to declaring publicly that he'd rather see the PS4 "fail" If memory serves correctly, and he appears to be a huge Nintendo fan (and probably a bit Xbox as well).

edit: looks like my memory failed me. Disregard.
 
Don't mind Ryng Tolu too much, as he has been pretty clear about his "preferences'" up to declaring publicly that he'd rather see the PS4 "fail" If memory serves correctly, and he appears to be a huge Nintendo fan (and probably a bit Xbox as well).
Oh, have these threads devolved into smear campaigns now? The only statement that's true here is the big Nintendo fan part.
 
Don't mind Ryng Tolu too much, as he has been pretty clear about his "preferences'" up to declaring publicly that he'd rather see the PS4 "fail" If memory serves correctly, and he appears to be a huge Nintendo fan (and probably a bit Xbox as well).

...WHAT!??!?! What the hell are you talking about!? PS4 failed? WHERE!? Seriusly, now give me a link where i said i hoped PS4 to fail.

EDIT: And just for you know, i will buy a PS4 this December.
 
Didn't say that. Of course Sony is happy with PS4 US sales.

Just making an observation relative to the current lead in the U.S.


I was joking with that comment :) NX ( home ) will never sell at Wii level haha, but will definitive doing better than Wii U. I hope in N64 numbers in the US, which was very strong.

Unfortunately for them "casuals" have moved on. But yeah it will be more successful than WiiU. Regardless i'm buying one as long as those power rumors are true. Mario and Zelda built with modern hardware is amazing to think about. I've been waiting for Nintendo to return to form since Gamecube. Last Nintendo console i bought.
 
...WHAT!??!?! What the hell are you talking about!? PS4 failed? WHERE!? Seriusly, now give me a link where i said i hoped PS4 to fail.

EDIT: And just for you know, i will buy a PS4 this December.

I was merely remembering a discussion where you were answering to someone who was saying something alike "I don't get how the PS4 sells that much" and you to say something like "I know, right?" or the like. Might have to go through post history, but you post a LOT :p

I may either remember wrong, or maybe you were expressing yourself awkwardly, I cannot say atm.

It really was no "smearing", as I honestly think that this is your preference, and there is no problem with that frankly, it's actually better in my book to be open about it.
 
I was merely remembering a discussion where you were answering to someone who was saying something alike "I don't get how the PS4 sells that much" and you to say something like "I know, right?" or the like. Might have to go through post history, but you post a LOT :p

I may either remember wrong, or maybe you were expressing yourself awkwardly, I cannot say atm.

It really was no "smearing", as I honestly think that this is your preference, and there is no problem with that frankly, it's actually better in my book to be open about it.

I'm a huge Nintendo fan. True.
The part about PS4 is just... i don't even know what say. Is just false.

About who prefer between PlayStation and XBOX... I don't see a XBOX preference. Well, i prefer 360 over PS3, but that's seriusly all. I wanna buy both XB1 and PS4, and for first i will buy a PS4. Just for know, why you think i prefer XBOX brand?
 
I'm a huge Nintendo fan. True.
The part about PS4 is just... i don't even know what say. Is just false.

About who prefer between PlayStation and XBOX... I don't see a XBOX preference. Well, i prefer 360 over PS3, but that's seriusly all. I wanna buy both XB1 and PS4, and for first i will buy a PS4. Just for know, why you think i prefer XBOX brand?

Then I must have remembered wrongly/ misinterpreted a previous post of yours and will edit my post to reflect that.
My apologies.
 
Then I must have remembered wrongly/ misinterpreted a previous post of yours and will edit my post to reflect that.
My apologies.

I accept the apology. Just, you'r comment here was completely off topic and i also hate if people reading you'r post can think i'm a PlayStation hater. That's completely false.

Ok, now stop, back to comment about NPD...
 
Amazon monthly updated for October:

#23: PS4 TLOU
#26: PS4 TTK
#30: PS4 BF (limited) - November
#36: XB1 Halo bundle
#40: PS4 UC
#61: PS4 1tb COD (limited) - November

Amazon montly (now daily on neogaf) updated for October:

#21: PS4 TLOU
#28: PS4 TTK
#30: PS4 BF - November
#33: XB1 Halo
#39: PS4 UC
#61: PS4 CoD - November

3 days left till Halo Bundle launch, anybody think it can catch up to TTK? (343 vs Bungie)
 
Amazon montly (now daily on neogaf) updated for October:

#21: PS4 TLOU
#28: PS4 TTK
#30: PS4 BF - November
#33: XB1 Halo
#39: PS4 UC
#61: PS4 CoD - November

3 days left till Halo Bundle launch, anybody think it can catch up to TTK? (343 vs Bungie)

I do expect a spike in sales come launch, and I would expect the Halo 5 bundle to catch up to the TTK bundle. With that said, the decision to bundle the Xbone with the Limited Edition of Halo 5 and charge $500 for the set utterly baffles me. Checking the site, it appears that Amazon's discontinuing the TTK bundle, so I don't expect it to catch back up.
 
I do expect a spike in sales come launch, and I would expect the Halo 5 bundle to catch up to the TTK bundle.

Seems like it's already picking up (top console SKU on Amazon currently). Not sure how high it will get.

With that said, the decision to bundle the Xbone with the Limited Edition of Halo 5 and charge $500 for the set utterly baffles me, and I would expect the TTK bundle to re-overtake it before the end of the month.

I think $500 is a lot but I don't find it baffling at all; MS wants to make as much money as they can from their biggest exclusive of the year.
 
Amazon montly (now daily on neogaf) updated for October:

#21: PS4 TLOU
#28: PS4 TTK
#30: PS4 BF - November
#33: XB1 Halo
#39: PS4 UC
#61: PS4 CoD - November

This is pretty telling, if this trend carries over to the retail side,there's a fairly good chance that the PS4 will take the October NPD, if so, it was a wise move for Phil Spencer to comment on the PS4's lead.
 
When will the September result be in?

Tomorrow.

Amazon montly (now daily on neogaf) updated for October:

#21: PS4 TLOU
#28: PS4 TTK
#30: PS4 BF - November
#33: XB1 Halo
#39: PS4 UC
#61: PS4 CoD - November

3 days left till Halo Bundle launch, anybody think it can catch up to TTK? (343 vs Bungie)

By end of the month, i think is a given.
Before the launch... i don't know. It's gonna be pretty colse.
 
Seems like it's already picking up (top console SKU on Amazon currently). Not sure how high it will get.
Aye, I was expecting a push in order to get day 1 delivery on Tuesday (although the game itself doesn't launch until the 27th). Next week will tell us if that uptick can be maintained.

On one hand it's Halo, otoh it's a $500 bundle...
 
On one hand it's Halo, otoh it's a $500 bundle...

The bundle priced that high... That game will sell less from bundles than usual, but is still going to kill it in individual software sales. Especially considering most diehard Halo fans already bought their Xbox in anticipation.
 
Even if MS takes one month in October, what will come after that?
It seems to be the last hooray for a long time.

As i said, i think it has a chance in April.
I don't expect a XB1 pricedrop this holidays, at least this is what i think, and if in April MS will made a XB1 pricedrop combined with the release of Quantum Break ( with a bundle as well ) i think is possible.

But the PS4 is gonna have a huge March thanks Uncharted (350k-400k), sooooooooooooo... eh, we will see.
 
As i said, i think it has a chance in April.
I don't expect a XB1 pricedrop this holidays, at least this is what i think, and if in April MS will made a XB1 pricedrop combined with the release of Quantum Break ( with a bundle as well ) i think is possible.

But the PS4 is gonna have a huge March thanks Uncharted (350k-400k), sooooooooooooo... eh, we will see.
Okay. This would mean 5 (five) month of PS4 dominance in the US, the only market where the Xbox stands at least a chance to lead hardware sales.
Meanwhile, worldwide will be 3 to 1 for Sony I guess roughly. That's awful.
And we do not even know what VR will bring to the tables.
 
As i said, i think it has a chance in April.
I don't expect a XB1 pricedrop this holidays, at least this is what i think, and if in April MS will made a XB1 pricedrop combined with the release of Quantum Break ( with a bundle as well ) i think is possible.

But the PS4 is gonna have a huge March thanks Uncharted (350k-400k), sooooooooooooo... eh, we will see.

I don't think XB1 has a chance in March or April, Sony has 4 exclusives coming in that timeframe: UC4, SFV, Ratchet & Clank and MLB16. Add bundles and the new price it's going to be hard to beat PS4.


We also have PSVR launch and the confirmed 2016 titles without dates: Dreams, TLG, Horizon, GT7, GR2, Hot Shots. If XB1 can't close the Gap this Holiday it will never have another chance.
 
Okay. This would mean 5 (five) month of PS4 dominance in the US, the only market where the Xbox stands at least a chance to lead hardware sales.
Meanwhile, worldwide will be 3 to 1 for Sony I guess roughly. That's awful.
And we do not even know what VR will bring to the tables.

At this point, even if MS wins 1,2, even 3 NPDs, it makes no differance in the gran scheme of things. It appears that Sony is back on their game like they were in the PSX and PS2 era.

Unless Sony slips up and MS pulls something miraculous off, I truly believe the race is lost. To paraphrase Phil Spencer, it's not about catching up, it's about making the Xbox One the best console it can be.
 
PS2 sold over 50,000,000 in NA, and around 46,000,000 in the US, with GC and XB which sold under 27,000,000. That's near 65% marketshare.
And XB / GC were pretty close, like you said, XB1 is selling way better than Wii U in the US, so, that's why we can't say PS4 domination is at PS2 level...



Didn't say that. Of course Sony is happy with PS4 US sales.



I was joking with that comment :) NX ( home ) will never sell at Wii level haha, but will definitive doing better than Wii U. I hope in N64 numbers in the US, which was very strong.



lol

The PS2 was an absolute beast. Sorry, but I have extreme doubts the PS4 will be get even 3/4 of the way there, its just not possible when the Xbox is far more competitive, and when millions of PS2's were bought just to be used as DVD players. The Wii almost did it, but it collapsed too early.
 
At this point, even if MS wins 1,2, even 3 NPDs, it makes no differance in the gran scheme of things. It appears that Sony is back on their game like they were in the PSX and PS2 era.

Unless Sony slips up and MS pulls something miraculous off, I truly believe the race is lost. To paraphrase Phil Spencer, it's not about catching up, it's about making the Xbox One the best console it can be.

Yup. The fact the Phil said that speaks volumes. MS has a chance to close the gap slightly but it won't matter. Both consoles will sell very well but after the end of the year. It seems things start very strong for Sony with Uncharted 4 launching in March and R&C coming out around the same time. I would assume SFV will be released around the March, April or May window.
 
Yup. The fact the Phil said that speaks volumes. MS has a chance to close the gap slightly but it won't matter. Both consoles will sell very well but after the end of the year. It seems things start very strong for Sony with Uncharted 4 launching in March and R&C coming out around the same time. I would assume SFV will be released around the March, April or May window.

Just to clarify, when you say close the gap you do only mean in North America, right?
 
Yup. The fact the Phil said that speaks volumes. MS has a chance to close the gap slightly but it won't matter. Both consoles will sell very well but after the end of the year. It seems things start very strong for Sony with Uncharted 4 launching in March and R&C coming out around the same time. I would assume SFV will be released around the March, April or May window.

SFV should be February or March. Capcom already said it will be out before end of the fiscal year.
 
MS will probably pull out the old "temporary" price drop card again. $299 bundles on black friday could do some damage.

Even if they were to go to that extreme again, I honestly believe that Sony will still be ahead or pass MS if they were to take a lead.

Again, Phil Spencers qoute regarding the "race" could be interpreted as MS caring more about profit than winning an NPD. I don't think MS wants to lose more money by cutting their price again.
 
MS will probably pull out the old "temporary" price drop card again. $299 bundles on black friday could do some damage.

If it goes down to $299 on Black Friday. Those will be only retailer deals. I just don't think MS announced and official price of $299 just for BF. People would then just wait for MS to announce another official price cut.

I can see retailers marking both consoles down for BF and the Holiday at large though
 
MS will absolutely cut the price this year, it's the only way for them to have a chance to win US this gen. MS cares more about staying relevant in US than profiting in hardware.
 
MS will absolutely cut the price this year, it's the only way for them to have a chance to win US. MS cares more about staying relevant in US than profiting in hardware.
That white gears bundle is already discounted by $20. Maybe that's the retailer
( Walmart) or maybe it's a sign to come. $379 & $329 bundles
 
MS will absolutely cut the price this year, it's the only way for them to have a chance to win US. MS cares more about staying relevant in US than profiting in hardware.

At some point MS HAS to care about profitability. They really need to let the system sell with Halo 5.
 
At some point MS HAS to care about profitability. They really need to let the system sell with Halo 5.

They care about profitability, but being relevant in US is their highest priority. And losing money on hardware doesn't mean Xbox won't be profitable, after all, consoles get most of their profits from selling software.

And they're letting Halo 5 sell the system for now, but its effect won't last forever especially when CoD and SWBF are releasing next month. That's why I suspect MS will cut the price next month around SWBF release to make sure their momentum stays higher than PS4's.
 
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