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[DarthWalden]

I dont see what doesn't make sense about your flagship AAA exclusive franchise having a similar launch to others in the series. This is the type of franchise MS / Sony / Nintendo etc. count on moving hardware. Install base doesnt effect these sorts of games really all that much.

I guess I see your point... I'm just going off what I see and to me it would be crazy for MS to have those expectations... Especially since they have access to preorder data which would likely give a good picture how the game might sell.

gaf is great at vetting.

Sometimes. Also I may be wrong but I don't think anyone has been vetted yet.

 

[Obliterator]

Uhh... what? I don't think I claimed it was a definitive number. Just an educated guess. If you have something to say, say it.



I was saying that series typically have upper limits. Just because you have vastly more consoles out doesn't equate to vastly more sales for any given title.

Just look at Halo 3, Reach and 4 launch sales. The install base is wildly different between all 3 and yet all 3 launched in the same range of numbers.

Halo 3 UK - 370k
Halo Reach UK - 390k
Halo 4 - 336k

Halo 5 is the outlier at only 150k.

I guess I see your point... I'm just going off what I see and to me it would be crazy for MS to have those expectations... Especially since they have access to preorder data which would likely give a good picture how the game might sell.

They very well may have revised goals and it met their current expectations. That is 100% possible of course. But early goals are set much further out than launch. But yes it may have met their current criteria no doubt.

 

[Chobel]

Then why bother mentioning or referencing to it?

He gave you the general idea about what MS want, giving more details about it could risk his job (or his source's job).

 

[Berlin_Wall]

RIP 60fps!

Spoiler

Yes, thats a joke

900p MP confirmed

Spoiler

Joking, too

 

[Trup1aya]

I dont see what doesn't make sense about your flagship AAA exclusive franchise having a similar launch to others in the series. This is the type of franchise MS / Sony / Nintendo etc. count on moving hardware. Install base doesnt effect these sorts of games really all that much.

So, a flagship first party title will generally sell the same amount on launch week regardless of how many consoles are in the wild?

That just doesn't make any sense. Sure these titles move hardware, but MOST of the software is going to be sold to people who already have the console. I seriously envision a reality, where anyone at MS would expect Halo5 to move as many consoles as Halo3.

The hype levels leading up to launch weren't even remotely comparable.

 

[Obliterator]

So, a flagship first party title will generally sell the same amount on launch week regardless of how many consoles are in the wild?

That just doesn't make any sense. Sure these titles more hardware, but most of the software is sold to people who already have the console. I seriously envision a reality, where anyone at MS would expect Halo5 to move as many consoles as Halo3.

The hype levels leading up to launch weren't even remotely comparable.

It makes perfect sense you have proof of it only a couple posts above yours.

 

[etta]

I was saying that series typically have upper limits. Just because you have vastly more consoles out doesn't equate to vastly more sales for any given title.

But people buy consoles to be able to play those "staple" games, and thus buy the game as well, right?
People buy PS4s for Bloodborne, Uncharted...etc, they buy XBOs for Halo, Gears...etc. Staple, complimentary products, of course those numbers should change.

 

[Trup1aya]

It makes perfect sense you have proof of it only a couple posts above yours.

I think that is proof that halo was already falling off...
I think that attachment rates are a better indication of a titles favor within the base, and H4s attach rate was 1/4th that of H3 at launch...

 

[Welfare]

The legs of Halo 5 will be very interesting to watch.

 

[Obliterator]

I think that is proof that halo was already falling off...

I would agree, but again all 3 mainline titles launched to a similar performance on wildly different install bases. Your core demo buy at launch no matter what. Legs are what are hurt long term by install base.

 

[Steverulez]

The legs of Halo 5 will be very interesting to watch.

Welfare
Leg man
(Today, 08:22 PM)

 

[Trup1aya]

I would agree, but again all 3 mainline titles launched to a similar performance on wildly different install bases. You're core demo buy at launch no matter what. Legs are what are hurt long term by install base.

The performance isn't the same, the attach rates dropped tremendously... That means people have been less likely to buy Xbox FOR Halo. There's no way MS didn't see this in the same way.

H3 didn't do those launch numbers because of the core halo fans. They did it because people new to Halo were interested in getting involved in it.

And H4 did those numbers simply because there were a shit ton of 360's in homes...

 

[Primethius]

But people buy consoles to be able to play those "staple" games, and thus buy the game as well, right?
People buy PS4s for Bloodborne, Uncharted...etc, they buy XBOs for Halo, Gears...etc. Staple, complimentary products, of course those numbers should change.

But... why? If Halo 3 was the peak of the series, it only makes sense for the follow up titles to not really hit those numbers.

I mean, what you say doesn't really occur in the videogame market. Titles have upper limits. This isn't me speculating, it's what we see in the sales.

 

[GnawtyDog]

So we're looking at 6m lifetime? Or people are ready to bet for 8m? 10m?

 

[etta]

I would agree, but again all 3 mainline titles launched to a similar performance on wildly different install bases. You're core demo buy at launch no matter what. Legs are what are hurt long term by install base.

And wouldn't that core demographic be significantly different now due to how Xbox people are so much more likely to upgrade to PS4 than XBO?
I feel like there's a very strong correlation there.

 

[ethomaz]

The franchise sold 60 million, there has to be another Halo game that crossed 10 million, maybe Reach?

The franchise sold 65m.
Some guys says Halo 3 (ODST included) sold over 14.5m alone.
And you have a lot of game for the others 50.5m:

Halo: Combat Evolved
Halo 2
Halo Wars
Halo: Reach
Halo: Combat Evolved Anniversary
Halo 4
Halo: Spartan Assault
Halo: The Master Chief Collection
Halo: Spartan Strike

I can't split but I guess Halo 2, Halo: Reach and Halo 4 were the best selling games after Halo 3.

 

[Welfare]

So we're looking at 6m lifetime? Or people are ready to bet for 8m? 10m?

Let's wait until NPD before saying anything on the games LTD.

 

[Obliterator]

The performance isn't the same, the attach rates dropped tremendously... That means people have been less likely to buy Xbox FOR Halo. There's no way MS didn't see this in the same way.

The performance on unit is VERY similar. Why are you harping on the attach rate? It doesn't really matter, your core demo if they are still on board are going out and buying this thing in the launch window regardless of install size. Your actual unit number of users stays mostly flat unless the brand itself is being turned away from in some capacity.

 

[Boke1879]

The performance isn't the same, the attach rates dropped tremendously... That means people have been less likely to buy Xbox FOR Halo. There's no way MS didn't see this in the same way.

Again mainline halo games have sold the same regardless of install base. This one does 50% less than that. You should expect your flagship franchise to be consistent

 

[Primethius]

The franchise sold 65m.
Some guys says Halo 3 sold about 14.5m alone.
And you have a lot of game for the others 50.5m:

Halo: Combat Evolved
Halo 2
Halo Wars
Halo 3: ODST
Halo: Reach
Halo: Combat Evolved Anniversary
Halo 4
Halo: Spartan Assault
Halo: The Master Chief Collection
Halo: Spartan Strike

I can't split but I guess Halo 2, Halo: Reach and Halo 4 were the best selling games after Halo 3.

I think 4's gotta be up there too. It's the best selling Halo title in the US according to MS. I doubt it's much farther behind WW.

Edit: I'm an idiot. I swear it said Halo not Halo 4. Ignore me completely.

 

[RE_Player]

Maybe digital sales are strong?

 

[Boke1879]

Maybe digital sales are strong?

Not strong enough to make any sort of difference

 

[Obliterator]

Again mainline halo games have sold the same regardless of install base. This one does 50% less than that. You should expect your flagship franchise to be consistent

Yep, you get it 100%. If your other mainline titles perform in the same consistent range regardless of your install base, you are going to go in expecting a similar result.

 

[cakely]

Let's wait until NPD before saying anything on the games LTD.

This. Halo 5 is going to have a real good month in the NPDs. This is the game that people bought all those Xbox Ones for.

I'm assuming that tomorrow we'll be hearing about "2 million first-week sales" from Microsoft.

 

[Kill3r7]

The franchise sold 65m.
Some guys says Halo 3 sold about 14.5m alone.
And you have a lot of game for the others 50.5m:

Halo: Combat Evolved
Halo 2
Halo Wars
Halo 3: ODST
Halo: Reach
Halo: Combat Evolved Anniversary
Halo 4
Halo: Spartan Assault
Halo: The Master Chief Collection
Halo: Spartan Strike

I can't split but I guess Halo 2, Halo: Reach and Halo 4 were the best selling games after Halo 3.

Halo CE + Halo 2 sold over 14.5M units combined by the time Halo 3 launched. So a fair guess for those 3 games combined would be roughly 30M units. That leaves 35M for ODST, Reach, CE Anny, 4, MCC and Spartan. We know that MCC is <5M. You can figure the rest out.

 

[VincentMatts]

Yep, you get it 100%. If your other mainline titles perform in the same consistent range regardless of your install base, you are going to go in expecting a similar result.

Its different when the last game didnt work for 6 months. Kinda turns people off. Look at Hardline.

 

[Trup1aya]

Again mainline halo games have sold the same regardless of install base. This one does 50% less than that. You should expect your flagship franchise to be consistent

Ok so let's look at the consistent launch sales numbers,

But let's ignore that fact that the constant growth of the Xbox 360 helped prop up halo launch sales numbers...

There is a constant, and an increasing variable... And you are all ignoring the increasing variable (installed base)... And incorrectly implying it has no effect on a games sales at launch.

And then there's the decreasing attach rate which is also being ignored.

 

[ethomaz]

I think 4's gotta be up there too. It's the best selling Halo title in the US according to MS. I doubt it's much farther behind WW.

Edit: I'm an idiot. I swear it said Halo not Halo 4.

I fixed fast... the 4 was not typed for a few seconds and I fixed to Halo 4 really fast.

BTW you are talking about this news:

Exciting news for the Halo team at 343 Industries and Microsoft Studios – critically acclaimed, “Halo 4” is now the best-selling Microsoft Studios title ever in the U.S. market*, surpassing its predecessor, “Halo 3” for sales during each respective launch year.

The comparison is just for US at launch year (2007 vs 2012).

 

[Interficium]

Halo 3 is the only game in the series to definitively be known as over 10m+.

Reach and 4 have both gotten very close, but consider there was never any "10 million sold" pub for Reach, and we know that 4 has not surpassed Reach's lifetime sales.

 

[Primethius]

I fixed fast... the 4 was not typed for a few seconds and I fixed to Halo 4 really fast.

BTW you are talking about this news:



The comparison is just for US at launch year (2007 vs 2012).

Oh, I see. I missed that little note back when I read it (or forgot it). That makes more sense with what we know of the other title's data.

 

[GnawtyDog]

Let's wait until NPD before saying anything on the games LTD.

NPD this month comes out when? 3 days from now?

 

[DriftingSpirit]

NPD this month comes out when? 3 days from now?

The 12th.

 

[CrimsonEclipse]

Maybe digital sales are strong?

Maybe? Who knows, doubt it but could be a decent chunk as some mentioned 20% as ball park.

Will be interesting to see how well it does WW and how much it sells long term. The UK numbers might be a little worried one (I'm not as I'm having a blast with the game) but not end all be all.

If it sells way less than other games in the seties, then might be time for MS to start reaching out to more distribution fronts such as PC.

 

[Ashes2Bashers]

343 couldn't make Halo. Yes the game is solid but it doesn't feel like Halo..If old Bungie would do some Halo , sales numbers would definetely be way more higher..

 

[Obliterator]

Ok so let's look at the consistent launch sales,

But ignore that the constant growth of the Xbox 360 helped prop up launch sales...

There is a constant, and an increasing variable... And you are all ignoring the increasing variable (installed base)... And incorrectly implying it has no effect on a games sales at launch.

And then there's the decreasing attach rate which is also being ignored.

You are all over the place. Halo 4 which had the largest install base launched lower than Halo Reach and Halo 3 which had less systems in the wild. And yet they all performed, consistently withing the 300k range.

Halo 5 launches and is an over 50% drop for the franchise and only moves 150k units. In order to be even in the same ball park as the other games it would have to have at minimum a 1:1 attach rate digitally. Which is impossible.

The numbers show one clear thing, at least in terms of the UK.

 

[GnawtyDog]

The 12th.

10 days? Forget that... put faith in thy bets folks. For one, it costs nothing.

 

[Boke1879]

Ok so let's look at the consistent launch sales,

But ignore that the constant growth of the Xbox 360 helped prop up launch sales...

There is a constant, and an increasing variable... And you are all ignoring the increasing variable (installed base)... And incorrectly implying it has no effect on a games sales at launch.

And then there's the decreasing attach rate which is also being ignored.

attach rate really has no bearing on the sales argument imo. If Halo 3 sold similar to Halo 4 regardless of install bases or attach rate that to me shows your core userbase buying the game. For Halo 5 to sell less that show 1 of 2 things. Your core userbase has moved on to other games. Or you're seeing a lukewarm reception to the signature franchise on the Xbox.

 

[etta]

The performance on unit is VERY similar. Why are you harping on the attach rate? It doesn't really matter, your core demo if they are still on board are going out and buying this thing in the launch window regardless of install size. Your actual unit number of users stays mostly flat unless the brand itself is being turned away from in some capacity.

What about this:

And wouldn't that core demographic be significantly different now due to how Xbox people are so much more likely to upgrade to PS4 than XBO?
I feel like there's a very strong correlation there.

Also, X360 being the console to own last gen also has a correlation to those numbers, right? That doesn't happen this gen since PS4 is the console to own now.

If Halo 3 sold similar to Halo 4 regardless of install bases or attach rate that to me shows your core userbase buying the game. For Halo 5 to sell less that show 1 of 2 things. Your core userbase has moved on to other games. Or you're seeing a lukewarm reception to the signature franchise on the Xbox.

...or the moved on to PS4...?

 

[Slash76]

Not strong enough to make any sort of difference

Maybe digital sales are strong?

We are a group of 6 friends and for the first time we all bought a digital copy. Not only with Halo but with all the games, many people in my friends list moved to digital games with Xbox One.

 

[Alo0oy]

The franchise sold 65m.
Some guys says Halo 3 (ODST included) sold over 14.5m alone.
And you have a lot of game for the others 50.5m:

Halo: Combat Evolved
Halo 2
Halo Wars
Halo: Reach
Halo: Combat Evolved Anniversary
Halo 4
Halo: Spartan Assault
Halo: The Master Chief Collection
Halo: Spartan Strike

I can't split but I guess Halo 2, Halo: Reach and Halo 4 were the best selling games after Halo 3.

Halo Wars, Spartan Assault, Spartan Strike, & Anniversary are irrelevant, all of them probably sold <5 million combined, so that leaves ~45 million between Halo 1, 2, 4, Reach, & MCC, we know that MCC sold <5 million, & that 1 & 2 sold <10 million, so Reach very likely sold ~10 million as well.

 

[Obliterator]

What about this:



Also, X360 being the console to own last gen also has a correlation to those numbers, right? That doesn't happen this gen since PS4 is the console to own now.

For sure PS4 dominance this generation plays a part. There is no way it does't. I also think launching so close to Black Ops 3, Fallout 4, and Battlefront was a huge error but that's just my opinion.

 

[Boke1879]

We are a group of 6 friends and for the first time we all bought a digital copy. Not only with Halo but with all the games, many people in my friends list moved to digital games with Xbox One.

That's great but it in no way represents the gaming populace at large.

 

[kadotsu]

Also, X360 being the console to own last gen also has a correlation to those numbers, right? That doesn't happen this gen since PS4 is the console to own now.

So what about Halo 2 sales? Unless you are arguing the PS2 wasn't the console to own that gen.

 

[Gnasher]

I'm guessing this is the first halo to ever launch in a digital bundle too?

 

[Synth]

Yep, you get it 100%. If your other mainline titles perform in the same consistent range regardless of your install base, you are going to go in expecting a similar result.

I'm a little confused by this admittedly. In order for your sales to remain flat despite huge growth of the install base, wouldn't you have to actually be losing a sizeable chunk of your core fanbase for this to occur? Unless we're assuming that the same 300k bought each Halo at launch, and none of the additional 70m contributed?

It's not even consistent flat either, because up until Halo 3, the series was actively growing. Halo 3 sold considerably more than Halo 2 at launch, and Halo 2 almost certainly outsold Halo CE's launch by a good amount... so there's little to suggest that a new generation wouldn't impact the sales once the series hit a point where it was no longer growing despite having significantly more potential gamers to sell to.

 

[N.Domixis]

Is this the franchises GT6 moment?

 

[Trup1aya]

You are all over the place. Halo 4 which had the largest install base launched lower than Halo Reach and Halo 3 which had less systems in the wild. And yet they all performed, consistently withing the 300k range.

Halo 5 launches and is an over 50% drop for the franchise and only moves 150k units. In order to be even in the same ball park as the other games it would have to have at minimum a 1:1 attach rate digitally. Which is impossible.

The numbers show one clear thing, at least in terms of the UK.

I don't think H5 is in the range, and I never thought it would be.

I'm not all over the place. THE REASON halo has consistently launched with 300,000 sales in UK is largely due to the fact that the constantly growing Xbox 360 installed based helped cover for a series that was becoming less of a reason to own the hardware.

The fact that H4 didn't launch as quite well as 3 or reach despite having a much larger base, shows that it had already reached its peak.

 

[Obliterator]

I'm a little confused by this admittedly. In order for your sales to remain flat despite huge growth of the install base, wouldn't you have to actually be losing a sizeable chunk of your core fanbase for this to occur? Unless we're assuming that the same 300k bought each Halo at launch, and none of the additional 70m contributed?

It's not even consistent flat either, because up until Halo 3, the series was actively growing. Halo 3 sold considerably more than Halo 2 at launch, and Halo 2 almost certainly outsold Halo CE's launch by a good amount... so there's little to suggest that a new generation wouldn't impact the sales once the series hit a point where it was no longer growing despite having significantly more potential gamers to sell to.

The people buying Halo at launch are mostly the same people yes, is exactly what I'm saying. The people that take the time to walk in on launch week and buy the game are mostly the same dedicated crowd, which had some growth up until Halo 4 where it has dropped from since then.

The fact that H4 didn't launch as quite well as 3 or reach despite having a much larger base, shows that it had already reached its peak.

I think we all agree with that. This is mostly about sales performance. Install base wasn't the main reason the game didn't perform similar to past titles. Its other factors.

 

[EGM1966]

I keep thinking I'm in an NPD thread. Then I realise how epic the next NPD thread may be.

Im not sure GAFs gonna be able to take Halo 5, Tomb Raider, CoD, Battlefront and Fallout 4 against a backdrop of Xbox trailing PlayStation in US and UK: the servers or the members.

 

[Chobel]

What about this:



Also, X360 being the console to own last gen also has a correlation to those numbers, right? That doesn't happen this gen since PS4 is the console to own now.



...or the moved on to PS4...?

What PS4 has to do with this? Halo 5 isn't on PS4 and XBO is outselling 360 launch aligned.