$850 million by the end of the third weekend. Am I reading this correctly?
Star Wars: The Force Awakens On Track For A Record-Breaking Opening Weekend
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$850 million by the end of the third weekend. Am I reading this correctly?
Maninthemirror
Banned
Yes I think it can be the first billion dollar domestic movie
I'm confused why releasing in December means it won't do well
Avatar released in december so
Anyways, glad this is going to do well, although its really not surprising in the least
Go Home, You're Drunk.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Shalashaska
Member
All the moneys.
RPGCrazied
Member
And people said it wouldn't top the Avenger's opening weekend. Come on guys, this is Star Wars.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Avatar had nowhere near the OW record. Avatar was #1 for 7 weeks in a row. Titanic was #1 for 15 weeks. People generally have more going on in December with school and the holidays not to mention the potential of snow storms to keep people at home. It's traditionally not as big for opening weekends as the summer months.
FYI my prediction is
175m opening - 675m domestic total.
There were a lot of crazy posters who thought Marvel is more popular than Star Wars a year ago. No one is willing to make such an absurd claim anymore.
175m opening - 675m domestic total.
There were a lot of crazy posters who thought Marvel is more popular than Star Wars a year ago. No one is willing to make such an absurd claim anymore.
Skellig Gra
Member
Well the movie isn't out yet so only time will tell.
It's just the nerds they said.
If weather doesn't become a factor, I definitely think the OW record is going down. Maybe that's wishful thinking on my part because I really hated Jurassic World.
They've done a good job eliminating almost all the negativity brought on by the prequels. By the time episode 3 came out, it felt like people watched it more out of duty and knew inside that it would be shit.
Now it's like that never happened. Star Wars excitement feels the same as when episode 1 was about to debut. And instead of shit like Jar Jar and random stupid looking alien, they show a cool chrome storm trooper, Han, Leia, Luke and a new R2D2 droid. Not to mention heavy use of the old themes. Perfect ad campaign.
I'm actually kinda sad now I didn't get an opening day ticket just to be a part of that initial audience
Avatar will be tough to beat. Avatar was new and was coined as a top 3d experience. Even my dad went to see it out of curiosity.
As big as Star Wars is, it's a known quantity and people already know of its their thing or not. Some people just won't see it just cuz.
Now it's like that never happened. Star Wars excitement feels the same as when episode 1 was about to debut. And instead of shit like Jar Jar and random stupid looking alien, they show a cool chrome storm trooper, Han, Leia, Luke and a new R2D2 droid. Not to mention heavy use of the old themes. Perfect ad campaign.
I'm actually kinda sad now I didn't get an opening day ticket just to be a part of that initial audience
Avatar will be tough to beat. Avatar was new and was coined as a top 3d experience. Even my dad went to see it out of curiosity.
As big as Star Wars is, it's a known quantity and people already know of its their thing or not. Some people just won't see it just cuz.
This.
It's the fucking Avengers 2 opening weekend prediction thread all over again.
The only downside to having a crapton of potential showings is that it dilutes the size of the crowd at each showing.
So while there's been popular movies since Avengers, I've never been able to have that Avengers Midnight Launch experience again because of the 20 day-of showings and seemingly random day-before showtimes.
So while there's been popular movies since Avengers, I've never been able to have that Avengers Midnight Launch experience again because of the 20 day-of showings and seemingly random day-before showtimes.
BronsonLee
Member
After Avengers 2 went, we'll see.
DeathoftheEndless
Crashing this plane... with no survivors!
In Vegas, I'd take the under on $225m.
Are there even going to be early review screenings? I thought that wasn't happening.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Nobody knows yet.
The point is that neither of them relied on the opening weekend, which is what this thread is about, to get to their massive numbers. They got there from repeat viewings across all demographics. This movie would have to buck the trend of every Star Wars movie that came before it to touch those two movies. Avatar also had the advantage of strong foreign currencies when it released that this movie doesn't have now. If people who aren't huge star wars fans don't feel like they need to go see it again and again then it ain't gonna make it there.
I said this.
I really underestimated how forgiving the public would be after the PT. Plus, Avengers 2 ended up being awful.
Avatar's opening weekend was $77M. The same goes for Titanic, which had an opening weekend of $28M. Historically, movies that open in December have lower opening weekends. That's not to say that The Force Awakens won't do crazy business, but based on its release date, it's more likely that it'll just have legs for days than open larger than any other movie in history.
ryutaro's mama
Member
I like the part where SW7 makes $250 million OW and then $360 million the following week.
Well there's nothing coming out that's going to threaten Star Wars so it's going to get a lot of repeat viewings assuming the film is good.
Maninthemirror
Banned
Statistically What i said is very possible. The reason is summer has people going on movies for big events but december has people wanting to get outof the house for movies, repeatedly which is why repeat business is always good in December during Christmas and New years Time,
Of all December releases that have happened after the 10th of December:
The Hobbit 1: OW was 84 and that was 27% of its total gross
I am legend: OW was 70 and that was 24% of its total gross
Avatar : OW was 70 and that was 10% of its total gross
The Hobbit 3: OW was 73 and that was 25% of its total gross
LOTR 3: OW was 72 and that was 20% of its total gross
Chronicles of Narnia OW was 62 and that was 23% of its total gross
Sherlock Holmes OW was 62 and that was 29% of its total gross
You can see the pattern here clearly. legs are always good in december for decent movies.and even better for good movies.
Take into account front loadedness, lets assume it does even worse than the worst in this list which is Sherlock Holmes.
Lets assume it makes 230 Million OW which is the modest prediction.
230 Million OW is 30% of....770 Million OW
even if it matches Jurrasic Park World at 208 Million, that would end up it making 700 Million.
Bets are on.
Of all December releases that have happened after the 10th of December:
The Hobbit 1: OW was 84 and that was 27% of its total gross
I am legend: OW was 70 and that was 24% of its total gross
Avatar : OW was 70 and that was 10% of its total gross
The Hobbit 3: OW was 73 and that was 25% of its total gross
LOTR 3: OW was 72 and that was 20% of its total gross
Chronicles of Narnia OW was 62 and that was 23% of its total gross
Sherlock Holmes OW was 62 and that was 29% of its total gross
You can see the pattern here clearly. legs are always good in december for decent movies.and even better for good movies.
Take into account front loadedness, lets assume it does even worse than the worst in this list which is Sherlock Holmes.
Lets assume it makes 230 Million OW which is the modest prediction.
230 Million OW is 30% of....770 Million OW
even if it matches Jurrasic Park World at 208 Million, that would end up it making 700 Million.
Bets are on.
It's pretty clear from a culturally standpoint alone Star Wars is MUCH more popular.
Let's not.
DontBeThatGuy
Member
It will probably be pretty good too, so bonus.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Dude, you have the movie making $360 million the next 7 days after opening @ $250 million (some of which are the last shopping days till Christmas.
You have got to be trolling but it is awesome to read, nonetheless.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Weird that this line was left out of the OP
So I mean...
So I mean...
SpaceHorror
Member
The writer had a separate source for the tracking numbers.
It will top Avengers 2 overall cross, that one is obvious. If it will break the opening, we will see. These numbers are always off the mark.
Having a four-decade head start tends to help with that.
The writer isn't the source of the tracking though.
Guys, I think everyone understands the nature of predictions...
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Like those people weren't going to be part of the OW anyway? The tickets that crashed the website for opening day likely made up for something like 15-20 mil, probably (we got the IMAX numbers for that opening day, and it was 6.5 something, right?)
So let's say the people who crushed the ticket sites account for 20 mil of your opening weekend.
Now you gotta come up with another 200 in those three days to make this prediction solid.
No, but if a guy who sucks at box-office predictions is the one bringing the tracking to light, isn't there kind of a problem? Wouldn't a guy who doesn't suck at box-office analysis and prediction be a better person to possibly sniff out what bullshit might come attached to this tracking, as opposed to deciding to run the article because he doesn't really know what he's talking about but thinks 225 seems "pretty reasonable?"
Yeah, as far as I understand it, when the interest levels are this high, it's pretty much a guessing game as to how big it'll get.
Can't wait for the flood of posts dubbing it a "disappointment" if it doesn't break any opening-weekend records.
If it was still regularly doing that then we could say such a thing, but if it's front loaded with the 'early adopters' then it's possible that everyone who wanted an early ticket got one and the others are waiting until later on to see it.
ryutaro's mama
Member
It was a master stroke in marketing.
Build anticipation up until the reveal of the last trailer (in prime time during MNF) and end the trailer with "tickets on sale now".
Fantastic string of events with an incredible outcome.
Avatar didn't have a massive opening. It was the very strong legs that kept it going.
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