CosmicQueso
Member
Through September it was just fewer. I'll run again in January to get the full year and I'll post the full title and score lists.
NPD Sales Results for November 2015 [Up3: Combined Hardware For PS4 + XB1 + Wii U]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
Through September it was just fewer. I'll run again in January to get the full year and I'll post the full title and score lists.
Yeah my buddy was bragging he got a BF bundle on Monday. He payed $349. I was like they were $299 for the last two weeks. But he said he didn't want it till he saw TFA on Sunday.
serversurfer
Member
Excellent. Looking forward to it.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Anecdotal, but at least near me it does seem like it is going to hurt their sales for the last half of December.
I went to 3 Best Buys around the area to pick up items I had ordered and saw about 5-6 Xbox Ones in the pick-up holding area at each store, but only 0 or 1 PS4. Prior to the price increase it was pretty much the reverse.
Best Buy makes up a pretty small portion of the video game retail market though so it doesn't really mean much one way or another, but I'd imagine Xbox has been outselling the PS4 since the price went back up everywhere. Only question is if PS4 built up enough of a lead in the first half of December to still sell the most this month.
My guess is that it'll be extremely close with the Xbox winning by a tiny bit for December.
Ehh...
People are still buying PS4s. And you don't really understand the difference in momentum between the two leading up to this week, the PS4 was *killing it*. It's been a drop off by comparison, definitely, but nothing in what I'm seeing from our districts would lead them to somehow win the month just from them extending their sale on the XB1 for a few more days, so to speak. It's a much larger spectrum.
I'll make a final speculation closer to the end of the month, but nothing in terms of what we're seeing in this week's sales is going to close the difference.
Edit: Also - Anything in the store pickup section can be misleading, because it can be held there for up to to a week. Some people are really lazy, and others are really urgent. Yes, it's a crazy time of year, but you have no idea how much of that product sits there when people order stuff while its on sale, and then wait til the last minute to come in and pick it up before it is cancelled.
Happy birthday!
Thats the thing, I asked 1 customer today, why'd they choose the $349.99 PS4 SWB Bundle over the Gears bundle and they simply said They saw the star wars movie, my question is, by any chance does it effect some customers or all, not only that but now the battlefront bundles are actually selling out again at my store (idk about the rest of my district) And we have a lot more Blackops3 bundles left over so if I could remember of the top of my head id say in the stock room we have about 22 battlefront PS4 bundles (we had 40 vs 40 BLOPS3 bundles (minus 9 we sold prior ) we do have the customers asking for the xobxone elite bundle though and they really want that bundle overall which in MY OPINION is strange because its priced well above the $299 gears bundle
serversurfer
Member
This actually got me thinking about some numbers that came up earlier in the thread that I'd meant to examine more closely but never did
So we have this for our two-year measurements:
Code:
Releases Tie Ratio Releases/Buy/Console
PS3 225 6.1 36.9
PS4 156 4.7 33.2
XB2 217 7.0 31.0
XB3 129 4.8 26.9
Wii 458 6.0 76.3
WiU 120 4.3 27.9I never took Prob&Stat, but I imagined "correlates at .97 r-squared" to mean something like the correlation I see between my throttle and my tach. Does ".97 r-squared" actually mean "97% Relative Randomness" or something? =/
In case that last metric isn't clear, it's how many games needed to be released on that platform before all of the platform owners said, "Yeah, I'll go ahead and get a new game," thereby increasing that platform's tie ratio by 1.0. There doesn't seem to be a strong correlation here, unless the correlation is "tie ratio goes up by one for every 30ish releases, give or take a half dozen, or sometimes three dozen."
Ah I see. Wow no idea people did that because I always go pick up my thing pretty much at 10:00 am the day it's available. Today it was for Trails in the Cold Steel of course!
Thank you very much for the insight as always Abdiel!
To be fair, consoles have become a very seasonal thing. October to December is where all the major console releases of the year generally congregate. It's like how the Summer Blockbusters congregate in summer, with the current Star Wars film being one of the few successful exceptions since it's in Oscar Season instead.
I'm not sure how you can describe it as becoming seasonal. It's always been seasonal. It's just that there used to be a lot more of it.
Same here, sir. Though my copy was staring at me from my coat pocket all day until my shift was over haha. I wish more people were aware of the game, to be ordering/picking it up, too.
And yeah, you'd be surprised how lazy some folks are with their store pickups. Product will just sit there for days on end. But that's really hit or miss. Sometimes it's a line of people for store pickup items, other times it's just stuff that sits and waits. There's no guarantee for any store how long any items have or will be sitting there for pickup.
R-squared is a statistical measure of how close the data are to the fitted regression line. It is also known as the coefficient of determination, or the coefficient of multiple determination for multiple regression. 0% indicates that the model explains none of the variability of the response data around its mean.
1.0 would be a perfect fit of data to the extrapolated linear fit (the line you're trying to fit the data to). 0.97 is quite close, so the variables are highly correlated
serversurfer
Member
Ah, thanks. And does this data fit that? How is r-squared calculated? I'm not even entirely sure what a regression line is, to be honest.
From my layman's perspective, there really seems to be very little correlation between release counts and sales. In Gen 7, Wii had twice as many games as the other two, yet had the lowest tie ratio, while XB2 had the fewest games, yet the highest tie ratio by far. This generation, PS4 has 20% more games available than XB3, yet its tie ratio is slightly lower.
So I'm not really seeing how releasing more games creates proportionally more sales. If anything, it seems like having too many games available actually lowers your tie ratios.
Welfare
Member
Thanks for all the happy birthdays!
I don't research the software side of things too much, but I would assume that the amount of games doesn't matter as much as it does the amount of games in a genre that the player base of a console supports.
The PS4 might have more games than the Xbox One, but depending on the genre of said games, those 20% more games on the PS4 might not drive consumers to purchase them because it (genre) does not fill their needs.
While on the Xbox One side, while having less games overall, what it does have in plenty is shooters. Xbox owners love like 2 things, sports and shooters, so even with less games overall, because the core base of Xbox favors shooters (and sports), they'll pick those up in spades, while another genre (JRPG) is almost ignored on the platform.
As long as the player base of the console gets games in the genre that is favored the most, I think the tie ratio will be "good".
Or I can be completely off base with this.
I don't research the software side of things too much, but I would assume that the amount of games doesn't matter as much as it does the amount of games in a genre that the player base of a console supports.
The PS4 might have more games than the Xbox One, but depending on the genre of said games, those 20% more games on the PS4 might not drive consumers to purchase them because it (genre) does not fill their needs.
While on the Xbox One side, while having less games overall, what it does have in plenty is shooters. Xbox owners love like 2 things, sports and shooters, so even with less games overall, because the core base of Xbox favors shooters (and sports), they'll pick those up in spades, while another genre (JRPG) is almost ignored on the platform.
As long as the player base of the console gets games in the genre that is favored the most, I think the tie ratio will be "good".
Or I can be completely off base with this.
Roughly, when there is only one variable, the coefficient of a regression line is the covariance between the two variables normalized by the variance of the independent variable (in this example, number of releases).
The R^2 is the total variation in the data (this case: sales) that can be predicted in a linear fashion by the independent variable (this case: number of releases).
serversurfer
Member
Sure, genres will factor in. If the US PS4-owning population collectively has zero interest in JRPGs, then a bunch of JRPG releases isn't going to increase Sony's software sales. The weird thing is, the existence of the JRPGs seems to be causing PS4 owners to walk out of the store with nothing; those extra games make them buy less software per-console than Bone owners.
Queso has been arguing that more physical releases means more physical sales. No one really disputes that, but diminishing returns, etc. However, Queso seemed to be arguing and I may be completely misunderstanding him again that the returns are actually fairly linear. But it actually sounds like that as release counts go up, per-title sales actually go down. Sales-per-release seems to go down as release counts go up. PS4 has more games than Bone, but PS4 owners buy less games. Wii had twice as many games as the 360 did giving Wii owners far more choice but only 86% as many games sold per console. Analysis paralysis? I dunno; it's counter-intuitive.
Like I said, I never took Prob & Stat, so I looked up what covariance meant, and I'm guessing you're saying that we need to find the mean for the release counts, and the mean for the tie ratios, and then see how much those two means deviate from each other? How do we do that, using the numbers we have? Like, can you walk me through it? <3
can you tell me how much return or exchange effect after the Christmas day (26 Dec)? how much impact it cause in final numbers for one item in relation to another item?
Bitch Pudding
Member
Like the "9 digital friends" one this is also a good example to illustrate that single oberservations are not an eligible way to predict sales
. It's kinda cool to have guys like Abdiel around who can (and do) provide us with a bigger picture on what's going on behind the curtains. Thanks a lot for that.Then again, even without Abdiel's insights predicting who'll win December is not a though one at all.
According to wikipedia, PS4 has 40+% more games than Xbone. Well, tie ratio is slightly lower cuz Xbone is a half of the PS4's user base.
slavesnyder
Member
It's just amazing that people prefer the PS4 over the cheaper XboxOne because of Star Wars if they do not care about anything other than the game.
As if they could not buy the Gears console plus Battlefront for the same price as the Battlefront PS4 without a second game.
It should be obvious that the game is multiplat, but an AT-AT on the box seems to do wonders.
Marketing is miraculous.
As if they could not buy the Gears console plus Battlefront for the same price as the Battlefront PS4 without a second game.
It should be obvious that the game is multiplat, but an AT-AT on the box seems to do wonders.
Marketing is miraculous.
Hydrargyrus
Member
Maybe they evaluate more reasons apart of the price...
mejin
Member
We saw it all along the year. We are just back to the status quo.
There are other reasons too ( tech reasons ), probably.
Damn, I was hopping for a GOTY release with all the DLC by the time it came to the beast slayer P$4.
by that logic XBOX One should've sold zero consoles for people who purchased multiplatform games at launch since it was way more expensive than the more powerful PS4
tattooed_dwarf
Member
Yep, MS should "bundle" it with deals like crazy. Sony really has taken all the best marketing deals this Gen.
serversurfer
Member
Sorry, I was referring specifically to the packaged release counts that were posted earlier. Also, it's US-only, so the market share split isn't as pronounced as you claim.
At this point Microsoft should just bundle a free PS4 with every Xbox One purchase.
The consoles are more then a sum of their games. PS4 version has the limited edition, a number or classic star wars rereleases, the better version of the game. And that is besides the fact that far and away most people play the game on PS4, meaning the whole friend thing ties in fairly strong as well.
Darth Smurf X
Member
I think you are onto something here...
it's a trap. ps4's will be returned en masse after the holidays causing the warehouses to be restocked for the next quarter!!!
Best Buy is also doing $50 gift card with Battlefront and Uncharted bundles (not the Black Ops bundle)
Jarod McChicken
Member
A quick look at the Amazon hourly. It's been pretty much like this for the last few days.
As Abdiel suggested from its own observations, the lead of the Xbox One seems really too thin to make up for the gap of the rest of the month, here on Amazon.
#12 Xbox One Gears of War [299$]
#17 PS4 Black Ops III [349$]
#20 PS4 Star Wars [349$]
#35 Xbox One Gears/Ori/Rare [349$]
As Abdiel suggested from its own observations, the lead of the Xbox One seems really too thin to make up for the gap of the rest of the month, here on Amazon.
#12 Xbox One Gears of War [299$]
#17 PS4 Black Ops III [349$]
#20 PS4 Star Wars [349$]
#35 Xbox One Gears/Ori/Rare [349$]
Why would anyone use hourly charts when there is a good monthly chart available for December at: http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015-12/videogames/
I think people use the hourly charts just so they can take a guess of what the monthly charts will look like on the next update.
Because he's talking about sales after PS4 price go back to $349.
The 8-Bit Raider
Member
That may explain what I saw at my local Best Buy the other day. There was a pallet with one PS4 BF bundle on it while there was a pallet with roughly 20+ XB Elites and another with about the same amount of XB triple game bundles. There were also about 50 XB triple game bundles lined up by the Customer Service area as well.
Edit: I suppose It's worth mentioning, since the store is located in Miami, FL, that a good number of customers that are purchasing PS4s seem to be visiting from central and South American countries. It's apparently cheaper, especially for Brazilians, to actually travel to miami to buy a PS4 than buy it in Brazil.
In other words, I think it's safe to assume that my Best Buy is definitely not representative of other locations.
anothertech
Member
Looks like PS4 is on track to 40M by end of year, incredible.
ms will lose the holidays, should have focused on the other 8 months. This is the only time they have to catch up. I expect the gap to widen to 2 million by next year if they lose DEC NPD
No I was right the spelling is lose.
Another thing is that they were pretty close for most to the months this year. If they would have spread out their exclusives and marketed more and did more deals they would have won many more months. And then come the holidays,a loss of a few hundreds k's wouldn't have been as bad.
No I was right the spelling is lose.
Another thing is that they were pretty close for most to the months this year. If they would have spread out their exclusives and marketed more and did more deals they would have won many more months. And then come the holidays,a loss of a few hundreds k's wouldn't have been as bad.
*loose
They could have won some months but sell less in holidays. In the end they want to sell the biggest amount of consoles as possible every year, win NPD in a slow month isn't exactly what drives a company.
Yes. Counting that as a success would be signs of a looser mentality.
2015. Everyone is loose.
theprodigy
Member
lol loose
anyway, what bundles does the Wii U have this month?
anyway, what bundles does the Wii U have this month?
With the new official price on the brazillian manufactured PS4 and the rise of the exchange rate is not cheaper anymore.
You can now buy a ps4 for roughly $399/449 in trusted online stores in brazil now.
Darth Smurf X
Member
Eh. Whoever wins, we all loose.