December 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes January 12th

No one's got it yet.

Hint: It's one of two titles of the same franchise in the top 10 this year.

So much excitement to see Tomb Raider bomb in here. : is it a bad game?

You're misreading the reaction. And the game is one of the best of the generation, if not one of the best action games ever made (yeah, I said it).
 
allan-bh, I found my TR estimates:

I'm just not sure about the TR numbers outside of US and UK. Let's say the game did the 550K (Nov+Dec) you estimates (i agree with the UK range). Adding something like 25% digital we get more 140K sales. To get to 1 million the game need additional 310K sales across the rest of Europe + Asia + Japan (physical + digital).

As i posted in the NPD prediction thread yesterday, the game performance on Germany doesn't look very good and the XB1 install base outside of US/UK is not expressive. Isn't Germany supposed to be the 2nd stronger market of EU? Here's the weekly chart position of ROTR in Germany:

Week 1 - 09
Week 2 - 16
Week 3 - 28
Week 4 (07/12) - 46
Week 5 - 53
Week 6 - 62
Week 7 - 86

If UK got ~150K sales i can see the Germany number at most at 50K. There's still a lot of games that must have been sold on XB1 weaker markets. That's why i think the US number is so important. With the great wom, and the reduced price i can see the can selling very, very well in the US in december.

I personally can't see the game reaching 1 million if the US number isn't at least 55/60% of the total.

A poster corrected me about France being the strongest XB1 market outside of US and UK. But i think the point still stands.
 
I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. First, because I don't think the X1 has as much of a grip as you and two, I don't know what to expect from a market leader here. I see improvement over its predecessor and keeping ahead of its nearest rival. All year.

So yeah.

Not a big deal at all.

For have an idea, PS4 is outselling PS2 WW, but in USA is more than 3 millon behind (using ~1.7m for december).
 
If TR is under 200k i'm gonna have to call bs on greenberg's claim that the one million figure was sold through.

Sold through... To retailers.

A million sales is good when it happens during the year but only getting a million during the busiest time of year to me is kind of poor.
 
Hint: It's one of two titles of the same franchise in the top 10 this year.
sphinx1-21.jpg
 
If tomb raider does not chart, there is no way in hell it sold over a million, not even with digital sales, I'll need MS to come out and say what Tomb Raider numbers are. I think we fell for their tricky PR again.
 
If tomb raider does not chart, there is no way in hell it sold over a million, not even with digital sales, I'll need MS to come out and say what Tomb Raider numbers are. I think we fell for their tricky PR again.

Hmm... I don't know. It depends on what the sales requirement for entering top 10 is.
 
If tomb raider does not chart, there is no way in hell it sold over a million, not even with digital sales, I'll need MS to come out and say what Tomb Raider numbers are. I think we fell for their tricky PR again.

Xbox One is sold in other countries, and it's on the 360.
 
Not a big deal at all.

For have an idea, PS4 is outselling PS2 WW, but in USA is more than 3 millon behind (using ~1.7m for december).

Like I said, agree to disagree. You see the glass different than I. I see no consequence of being behind the PS2. None. At. All.
 
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