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[psynergylover]

a tad bit of a spoiler of xenoblade on hillary....

Hillary is more like Sharla...we enjoy her time to time but but always seems to screw up the healing when we need it the most!!!

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

Just found an amazing gif.

 

[Trojita]

Good job Ivy!

What anime is this OT referencing? Looks good, though I am not familiar with the source material.

Um....

I don't get the references.

Oh you ninja edited lol.

 

[maxcriden]

With supes she's already around 1230.

it's the case, there's just not really any point in counting them until the process has ended

Thanks, Holmes!

eBay Huckster: is it conceivable if Bernie won the majority of the delegates otherwise that the supers would jump ship to him? (I do think it's exceptionally unlikely this hypothetical scenario would come to pass.)

 

[Macho Madness]

Thanks, Holmes!

eBay Huckster: is it conceivable if Bernie won the majority of the delegates otherwise that the supers would jump ship to him? (I do think it's exceptionally unlikely this hypothetical scenario would come to pass.)

If Bernie has the pledged delegate lead heading into the convention, I'd expect as much. The alternative would be unprecedented.

 

[maxcriden]

If Bernie has the pledged delegate lead heading into the convention, I'd expect as much. The alternative would be unprecedented.

Gotcha. Thanks for the info! I don't expect it to happen, but was just curious about that.

 

[Kuros]

The superdelegates will go with whoever wins the pledged delegates count.

Which will be Hilary anyway so it doesn't matter.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Thanks, Holmes!

eBay Huckster: is it conceivable if Bernie won the majority of the delegates otherwise that the supers would jump ship to him? (I do think it's exceptionally unlikely this hypothetical scenario would come to pass.)

In the event that he does somehow do that (especially given what it'd entail after tomorrow!), I'd think just enough supers would switch to/commit to him to give him a slight majority.

 

[Box of Kittens]

It's finally my turn to vote. This being Chicago, the Democratic primary is typically the "real" election for local races.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Someone's actual yard in Ohio.

https://twitter.com/AlecMacGillis/status/708785086834077696

Alec MacGillisVerified account ‏@AlecMacGillis
To those who suggested otherwise: no, this is not photo-shopped. I took it today at a home in West Carrrolton, Ohio.

 

[brainchild]

Someone's actual yard in Ohio.

https://twitter.com/AlecMacGillis/status/708785086834077696

Terrifying.

Just found an amazing gif.

Incredible.

 

[daveo42]

Someone's actual yard in Ohio.

https://twitter.com/AlecMacGillis/status/708785086834077696

I live near there!

I live near there...

 

[Akiraptor]

Someone's actual yard in Ohio.

https://twitter.com/AlecMacGillis/status/708785086834077696

Oh huh, he must have gotten them all at "Free Sign Saturday."

 

[gutter_trash]

I like this thread better, the other one is so passé

 

[foxuzamaki]

Ivysaur I did not Expect this thread to be xenoblade themed
I love you

 

[orthodoxy1095]

Bit of a Bern push here at Mizzou. Got a flyer on my doorstep and I see chalk writings urging votes all over campus.

 

[foxuzamaki]

OBAMA.

Does that make bill Clinton Dunban?

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Gotcha. Thanks for the info! I don't expect it to happen, but was just curious about that.

It's pretty much impossible at this point because of proportional delegation.

I mean, a Hillary arrest, or Bernie winning the remaining states at a 70-30 margin would flip them, but neither scenario is likely at all.

Bernie people need to come to terms with that. Hillary is the Dem nom.

 

[Wafflecakes]

It is pretty much over for Rubio right? I mean.... I would love an upset win, but it seems outside the margin of error.

 

[ivysaur12]

It is pretty much over for Rubio right? I mean.... I would love an upset win, but it seems outside the margin of error.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=len8pKwzjS0

 

[brainchild]

There is a non-zero chance that Hillary Clinton will have a bad day tomorrow.

My model is estimating two Sanders wins on Tuesday, in Missouri and Illinois. However, Illinois and Ohio are both effectively coin flips with such thin margins between victory and defeat (if you recall, I put Bernie at 53.48% in Michigan and he won by less than 1%, though my model should be more accurate now). It is also estimating two wide victories for Hillary in North Carolina and Florida, which is and has been expected. Here are tomorrow’s projections:

Only one Bernie win in Missouri will not likely lead to any permanent change in the perception of Hillary being the candidate that is destined to win the nomination. Two upsets will likely change the narrative of the presidential race, and bolster Bernie’s image as a threat to the prospect of Hillary being the Democratic nominee. Three upsets tomorrow will likely transform Bernie from “challenger” status to “probable nominee”status, and I say this because early numbers indicate to me that Bernie will win (at least) the next eight states in a row, all the way until April 19th. If Sanders wins three states tomorrow, this means that in mid-April he will be able to say that he has won eleven of the last thirteen state primaries. That’s some serious momentum.

I’ve also been putting together a GOP model over the past week. Though the model seems to fit previous elections extremely well, the GOP elections are just far too volatile for me to have much confidence in the numbers. Regardless, it is estimating at least two upsets tomorrow, in Florida and North Carolina. If it turns out to be acceptably accurate, I will begin posting projections for the GOP as well.

https://tylerpedigo.com/category/politics-2/


Keep your eyes peeled, folks!

 

[Downhome]

Is this accurate? If so, how does Trump not take it for sure?

https://imgur.com/a/gnfkF

 

[PBY]

Is this accurate? If so, how does Trump not take it for sure?

No one wins outright

 

[ivysaur12]

Is this accurate? If so, how does Trump not take it for sure?

https://imgur.com/a/gnfkF

It's not proportional in many states going forward, so it could be more volatile in terms of trying to amass delegates.

That being said, even if Kasich wins Ohio, he has a good shot of winning the nomination outright.

 

[Striek]

Xenoblade OP? Did not expect that, haha.

Also the Hillary fans are so terrible at understanding the delegate math despite being people who refer to it so often. Sanders has to win just 54% of the outstanding pledged delegates to take a delegate lead into the convention.

Superdelegates have never determined the winner before. In an election cycle about how fucked up the establishment is on both sides of politics it would be suicide to start now.

 

[AstroNut325]

The thread title made me expect a F&F themed primary thread. I'm disappointed!

 

[Inspector Jones]

Voting tomorrow for Sanders in Illinois. Here's hoping he pulls off as many upsets as he can, it certainly looks promising in a few states.

 

[ivysaur12]

Xenoblade OP? Did not expect that, haha.

Also the Hillary fans are so terrible at understanding the delegate math despite being people who refer to it so often. Sanders has to win just 54% of the outstanding pledged delegates to take a delegate lead into the convention.

Superdelegates have never determined the winner before. In an election cycle about how fucked up the establishment is on both sides of politics it would be suicide to start now.

But that's not how it works.

It's likely that even if Bernie wins OH, MO, and IL, those wins would be eclipsed by huge wins in NC and FL, further expanding her gap. And even if she loses contests going forward, none outside of WA are delegate rich and everything is propositional, making is extremely difficult if not impossible for Bernie to close that gap before NY and CA.

 

[Massive Duck. C.M.]

looooooool at Gentle Ben. Glad I'm far enough in game to appreciate the OP

 

[David H Wong]

https://tylerpedigo.com/category/politics-2/


Keep your eyes peeled, folks!

That outcome would put Hillary up by 300 delegates and effectively end the race. This guy is delusional.

 

[David H Wong]

But that's not how it works.

It's likely that even if Bernie wins OH, MO, and IL, those wins would be eclipsed by huge wins in NC and FL, further expanding her gap. And even if she loses contests going forward, none outside of WA are delegate rich and everything is propositional, making is extremely difficult if not impossible for Bernie to close that gap before NY and CA.

Right, the kind of states he's been tying or losing he'd have to suddenly start winning by 20 points. There's no reason to think that's going to happen, and nothing is trending that direction. All we've seen is some races tighten and others (like Mississippi) go even harder in Hillary's direction than the polling showed.

 

[Leona Lewis]

 

[Danis Saur]

Amazing job with the thread, OP!

Also I'm scared... ;__;

 

[Matt]

https://tylerpedigo.com/category/politics-2/


Keep your eyes peeled, folks!

That...is an incredibly poor piece of analysis.

 

[Striek]

But that's not how it works.

It's likely that even if Bernie wins OH, MO, and IL, those wins would be eclipsed by huge wins in NC and FL, further expanding her gap. And even if she loses contests going forward, none outside of WA are delegate rich and everything is propositional, making is extremely difficult if not impossible for Bernie to close that gap before NY and CA.

That is EXACTLY how it works, wtf, because its 'propositional' (proportional?). Just because you disagree it will happen doesn't change the facts or the numbers.

 

[TyrantII]

That outcome would put Hillary up by 300 delegates and effectively end the race. This guy is delusional.

We have our very own skewered polls / delegate math guy! GAF, I'm impressed.

That is EXACTLY how it works, wtf, because its 'propositional' (proportional?). Just because you disagree it will happen doesn't change the facts or the numbers.

You do realize not every state has the same number of delegates right? That complicated the math quite a bit.

 

[Striek]

You do realize not every state has the same number of delegates right? That complicated the math quite a bit.

Wow, of course. The math isn't complicated. 54%. 1472 of 2729 remaining. Hillary's lead of 214, half the remaining, plus one.

 

[ivysaur12]

That is EXACTLY how it works, wtf, because its 'propositional' (proportional?). Just because you disagree it will happen doesn't change the facts or the numbers.

I'm typing on my phone. Don't be a dick about spelling.

And no, none of the Bernie-friendly states coming up have many delegates to overcome the deficit he's in now. Most of the remaining delegates are from WA, CA, and NY. CA and NY being very friendly Clinton territory.

It's not "just" winning 54% of the remaining delegates. It's over performing in two extremely delegate rich, Clinton-friendly states.

 

[Inspector Jones]

also, I thought it was relevant to post here: Trump has broken 50%in national support for the first time.

Source

And Rubio is going to lose FL. Does anyone here think Trump won't end up with the republican nomination?

 

[ant1532]

Just want to remind gaf to wear all of the sunscreen they have tomorrow. I'm going to recommend high SPF. Lather it up.

 

[catmincer]

I'm typing on my phone. Don't be a dick about spelling.

And no, none of the Bernie-friendly states coming up have many delegates to overcome the deficit he's in now. Most of the remaining delegates are from WA, CA, and NY. CA and NY being very friendly Clinton territory.

It's not "just" winning 54% of the remaining delegates. It's over performing in two extremely delegate rich, Clinton-friendly states.

This. Even if he wins most other states by say 60/40 and she gets these CA and NY 60/40 she'll still be ahead likely. I'm pretty sure she'll win Arizona too. That puts her around 60 ahead from the march 22 to April 19 contests.

Edit: Going by the prediction above from https://tylerpedigo.com/category/politics-2/ she's still gonna come out 51 ahead tomorrow.

So by my rough maths he'll be around 110 extra behind. Even if he wins 60/40 everything after including California she still wins.

 

[And_Gignac]

Just found an amazing gif.

cackling hard.

 

[Kickz]

Ready to hold the line for King B.


Hoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooldddddddddd!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Geist-]

Just found an amazing gif.

The GOAT of this election cycle.

 

[Grizzlyjin]

also, I thought it was relevant to post here: Trump has broken 50%in national support for the first time.

Source

And Rubio is going to lose FL. Does anyone here think Trump won't end up with the republican nomination?

Is it weird that I'm still skeptical that the RNC will give it to him? I mean...he has earned it, and if he gets Florida, Ohio, or both the argument against giving it to him boils down to "We don't like him."

 

[TyrantII]

Wow, of course. The math isn't complicated. 54%. 1472 of 2729 remaining. Hillary's lead of 214, half the remaining, plus one.

Yup. You don't get it.

To get 54% of the remaining delegates he needs to run the field in large States 60%+ to 40%. States he won't get anywhere close to that.

It won't matter by this time tomorrow. Bernie will end tomorrow as he has done every night since NH. Losing ground in the delegate count.

 

[Striek]

At least you are off arguing the delegate math is wrong and now have moved onto speculative probabilities and outcomes. You'll change your tune on that in a couple weeks as well, I imagine.

 

[mo60]

also, I thought it was relevant to post here: Donald "I'm starting to wonder myself whether he was born in this country" Trump has broken 50%in national support for the first time.

Source

And Rubio is going to lose FL. Does anyone here think Donald "I'm starting to wonder myself whether he was born in this country" Trump won't end up with the republican nomination?

I don't think the national polls are that accurate at this point. Trump's support in the republican race is still around 35%.Most of the polls that have been showing trump 's support in the 40 to 50 percent range have been mostly not that accurate so far in this race and we know that trump has yet to break 50% support in a primary or caucus yet.I would take national polls showing 50%+ support for trump with a grain of salt still. I expect trump to beat rubio by a significant amount tomorrow. I expect him to win probably around 1237 delegates eventually, but the republicans at the convention may make it harder for him to become the republican nominee at the convention if he does not have the 1237 delegates before the convention.

 

[ant1532]

At least you are off arguing the delegate math is wrong and now have moved onto speculative probabilities and outcomes. You'll change your tune on that in a couple weeks as well, I imagine.

welcome to hilgaf


presumptions. pretentions.

 

[eBay Huckster]

man, this thread's gonna be fun to read in 24 hours when that 54% figure has already jumped to 58%

whole lotta mark penns in here