Knuckle Sandwich
Member
I like how people are just calling that guy Tyler.
Cher
Madonna
Oprah
....Tyler
Cher
Madonna
Oprah
....Tyler
2 Super 2 Tuesday |OT| I'm Really Feeling (The Bern) (3/15, 3/22, 3/26 Contests)
- Thread starter ivysaur12
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Chie Satonaka
Member
These OTs are really helping me get through this election cycle.
I'm not even joking.
I'm not even joking.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
No he doesn't. Here's an example:
http://DemRace.com/?share=fTNxtzyj
It would require him to win NY by less than 6 points and CA by 12.5 points. We could go back and forth all day about the possibility of that, but there's definitely a path to the nomination without huge margins in big states.
You have Sanders wining every state after tomorrow except Maryland. And by pretty large amounts.
What you are suggesting is that, of course Bernie can win, the Clinton campaign could fall apart!
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
I mean, even going with a more pro-Clinton model, she has a shot at like 5 states after March 15th.
Edit- and the example I posted includes single-digit margins in Hawaii, New Jersey, Arizona, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania.
eBay Huckster
Member
if by 5 you mean, like, 15
Arizona, New York, Connecticut, Maryland, New Jersey and California are more than what she needs to win the nomination and then some. Couple that with Hawaii, Pennsylvania, New Mexico...
Bernie's only realistic path to win is through New York, and I shouldn't have to explain why that's potentially insurmountable.
It's reaching conspiratorial levels of reality distortion.
How exactly does he win New York, Clinton's backyard, and a state that is only 33% non-hispanic white. And how does she only sneak out a win in Maryland, a state where like half of the democratic voters are going to be black. And why exactly does Clinton lose California, a state she won in 2008 against Obama due to the fact that she carries Hispanic voters who make up 40% of the state?
Thunder Monkey
Banned
I count around fifteen Hillary is likely to win, and more than a few by some pretty damn large margins.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Name 15 states she can win after March 15th and I'll name at least 8 that definitely won't happen.
TheFixer said:
I'm not saying this will actually happen.
brainchild
Banned
Did one of the GOPs reality distortion field machines fall off the back when Trump stole the bus?
eBay Huckster
Member
Arizona, Utah (both of which she's leading in the most recent polling - though Utah is the first state I'd jettison from this list), Hawaii, New York, all 5 states voting on April 26, Guam and the Virgin Islands (given her performance in the other territory caucuses), Puerto Rico (for the same reason that she's about to win Florida by a ton), California, New Jersey, New Mexico, and DC.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
1) Double digits is not "sneaking out a win".
2) New York is a fairly liberal state and shares a border with Vermont. Again, though, I'm not saying this will actually happen. It's a hypothetical path to the nomination that doesn't require Bernie winning 20+ margins in NY and CA, which is even less likely than what I posted.
3) Hillary has won states she lost in 2008 and lost states she won in 2008. There have been 20+ point swings in several instances. 2008 results are useless.
You're bandying around, without a shred of irony or mirth, the completely asinine notion that Clinton has a "shot" at 5 states after tomorrow when she'll WIN 15 or more. I mean, Bernie supporters are nothing if not consistent: their grasp of electoral math is about as good as their grasp of fiscal math.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Guam, Virgin Islands, DC and Puerto Rico aren't states. I actually project her to win all four of those, though and by double digit margins in each.
As for April 26th, no way is Bernie losing Rhode Island and Connecticut.
The states I think Hillary has a chance in would be:
Pennsylvania
Arizona
New Mexico
New York
California
New Jersey
Hawaii
TheFixer said:
Is there any reason to be this condescending?
Off the top of my head, she's 100% going to win in:
Florida
North Carolina
California
Hawaii
Maryland
New York
Arizona
New Mexico
New Jersey
Puerto Rico
Virgin Islands
District of Columbia
I'll give him Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Washington, Wyoming, Connecticut, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota.
He still loses.
Fine Ham Abounds
Member
Thank god the OT title wasn't something about a Baked Pocarson with a youtube link in it
Brainchild, how are you holding up with Neil being a Trump supporter
Pls respond if u r ok
Brainchild, how are you holding up with Neil being a Trump supporter
Pls respond if u r ok
Of course Bernie could lose Connecticut. It's the most diverse state in New England with a huge black and hispanic population that dominates the Democratic caucus within the state, and is considerably less traditionally progressive than Maine, Vermont, or Massachusetts.
It's as establishment friendly as Mass, but more diverse. If he can't win Mass, he'll have a harder time in CT. Also -- a lot of the Democrats in the southern part of the state work in the financial sector.
Dude, that projection gives Sanders 20 point margins in a ton of states. Including states that Sanders is either tied in or losing right now.
It's not realistic. It could be possible, because so many things are, but it's not realistic.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
I'm talking about the states after March 15th. Obviously she's got NC and FL. Also, I have serious doubts about NM, AZ and HI.
Also, I think the link I posted is being misinterpreted as my prediction as to what will actually happen. It's not. It's what I think Bernie's most realistic chance at the nomination happens to be. It's still a very unlikely outcome.
Is there any need to be so cocksure in your false science and misapprehension of reality? Once you ask yourself that question, you'll understand why some people are so exasperated by this kangaroo electoral math.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Post a more likely scenario that results in Bernie getting the nomination, then. Do you really think him racking up 20+ point wins in CA and NY is more likely? Again, my post was not meant to be interpreted as a prediction of actual outcomes. It's his best chance going forward. I don't find it to be a likely outcome.
I know it's wrong but I could not resist just driving through that display at full speed.
Fine Ham Abounds
Member
My gut is telling me Bernie will get Hawaii and Arizona
Both Hawaii and Arizona are closed. Yes, Hawaii is a caucus, which helps Bernie, but we have no idea how Asian-American voters will swing (we'll maybe get a better idea with exits in IL). Arizona is highly diverse, a closed primary, and with a Dem base that resembles a mix of Nevada and Texas, states that Clinton won.
I already explained the specific piece of hubris from your post that bothered me: that Clinton merely has a "shot" at 5 states after tomorrow. That is an inexcusable statement to assert with any degree of confidence. Contemptible and incomprehensible.
lmao. you mad or nah.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
I'm sorry, but that just seems like an extreme reaction to anything I've said here.
I think it's a bit of an unfair dogpiling on what's ultimately symptomatic of the reality distortion of Bernie's campaign more broadly. I think there's room for intelligent discourse on potential wins that might spur a bit of momentum in Bernie's campaign, but at some point you have to have the humility as a Bernie supporter to not make sweepingly inaccurate assertions so confidently. It was a trifle a few months ago, but the barrage of insouciant dismissal of facts and polling by a vocal subset of Bernie supporters on social media and elsewhere begins to grate. Don't think this thread should let statements like that go unchallenged.
You say this as you swear by all your presumptions of what you KNOW is going to happen and polling data that hasn't been that accurate as of late. You're posts come off so condensing and pretentious its hard to be serious with you.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Technically it wasn't accurate, in one single state, and that state hadn't had an actual Dem primary since 2004.
In what world is it reasonable to say that Clinton only has a "shot" at 5 states remaining, which connotes that she isn't even likely to win those 5 states? Let's start there first.
This model is so fragile that if you change the NY win by 1% (and Bernie still winning NY by 5%) Hilary still get the nomination. And that's not even talking about the other margins. If a 1% swing in one state can derail this whole math you can understand why most people think this is VERY VERY unlikely.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Yes, that model nets him a win by one delegate. It is the most fragile margin by which he can win because, again, it's what I think is his most likely chance. Winning by more and more delegates becomes less and less likely. If I wanted his lead to be more stable I could just ratchet his NY margin up to 20 points, but that outcome is incredibly unlikely. A 6 point win, though, is within the realm of possibility I think. Not the most likely outcome, mind, just one that's possible.
unlikely but it is indeed still possible, which is why this race is still a lot of fun
Obviously if he wins, it will be because unlikely things have occurred. That's why she's the frontrunner.
But it's not mathematically impossible either. Results like the ones in that scenario wouldn't happen if we voted today. But if you'd asked me last week if Bernie had a shot at IL, I would've been very skeptical.
I did a similar map, giving Bernie 10 point wins in NY and CA. Not likely no, but if Hillary's campaign begins to collapse. this is what it will look like.
EDIT:
unlikely but it is indeed still possible, which is why this race is still a lot of fun
I posted the above before I saw this, but yeah. It's still a fun race to watch, for now anyway. Tomorrow could change that pretty quickly though.
So 1-2% for all 3?
Lord_Byron28
Member
Exactly people don't understand that this election is changing. He made some unexpected wins so far this primary. Election cycles are fluid and changing. As you mentioned Illinois and Ohio were not seen as competitive for Sanders until these past 24 hours. I feel if Sanders were smarter he would've moved his SC Southern strategy team and instead have built better inroads with the Hispanic community to help him win over Florida, Texas, Arizona, California and New Mexico. He has decent support around Hispanics under 45 but he has failed to really capitalize on it too heavily.
titiklabingapat
Member
Every thread, I swear to god, seems like it is someone's babbys first election.
superdeluxe
Member
At worst for Clinton, these are tossup states. She actually has the poll lead in the latest Brown poll in Rhode Island
When did this pop-gaf stupidity leak into politics threads? "Queen" stanning is such an idiotic framework under which to view government and voting.
I don't even see this shit on Jezebel. You're embarrassing all of us.
brainchild
Banned
'Queen', as it's commonly used on this forum, is a term that comes from the drag community. It has nothing to do with monarchies or governments.
Calm down, bud.
Well, yeah, obviously. That would be a completely different complaint.
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