Super Tuesday 4. I'm really feeling (The After Bern) March 22, 26 contests

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Crayons said:
Sanders had huge losses in the south, yes I know. But that doesn't mean he doesn't have support with any minorities. Take for instance, Washington today. Though there is no specific data on it yet, he clearly must have received a helping hand from the Asian population in and around Seattle.

Clinton's name along is HUGE in the south so the landslide losses aren't unexpected.

It is not just "XXX" person of color here. It's not just a few people here, it's many. Many. When New York votes, I'll admit I have no idea where the rest of the state goes, but check out the five counties of New York City. Sanders is gonna sweep here, and guess what? New York City isn't a very white city at all.
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He's not going to sweep NYC, what makes you think he will? A couple of pictures in Brooklyn? Come on dude.
 
eBay Huckster said:
are we sure that hawaii's even real? maybe obama was secretly born in area 51 and the concept of hawaii's just a convenient cover story
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This is how I feel about the entire East Coast and most of Europe.

It seems so implausible that people would not just live but build a civilization in a place where every year for three months the environment deliberately tries to murder you.

But it explains why they're so grumpy! And also a lot of the problems with the dumb civilization they built.
 
Crayons said:
Also I'm not white so you can't use your tokenism bullshit on me sorry babe
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I'm Puerto Rican and it pisses me the fuck off when arrogant American liberals try to coddle and "defend" me. Screw you and your paternalism!

Also, this has little to no bearing on the matter but some people might find it interesting: young people in Puerto Rico are overwhelmingly for Bernie Sanders. Like it's not even close. I go to the biggest, most liberal and politically-active college campus in Puerto Rico and in my totally-scientific estimate, Bernie supporters outnumber Hillary supporters something like 10-1.

I guarantee you that if young Puerto Ricans go out and vote in the primaries Hillary will get decimated here.

Interestingly, I'd learned about Bernie from one of my professors before he'd even announced his candidacy.
 
GYODX said:
Also, this has little to no bearing on the matter but some people might find it interesting: young people in Puerto Rico are overwhelmingly for Bernie Sanders. Like it's not even close.
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i mean, young people literally everywhere in the country are overwhelmingly for bernie sanders, that's not really a new thing
 
B-Dubs said:
He's not going to sweep NYC, what makes you think he will?
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-Grassroots support by the Sanders campaign
-Many CUNY colleges here with students who overwhelmingly support Sanders. Big network of colleges with a significant population once you add them all up
-See way more pro-Sanders things than Clinton (have I ever seen Clinton stuff? Maybe not)
-He has support across racial lines
-I've seen lots of people volunteering to get people registered to vote
-Lots of new voters
-Probably will have huge Turnout. Everyone here hates Trump so they pay more attention to politics than usual, to prevent a Trump win

I just see a lot of Bernie enthusiasm here
 
eBay Huckster said:
i'd actually wager that upstate would go for him outright before i'd wager that Clinton loses the City
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Upstate is really weird.

I grew up there, and it's pretty conservative. Lots of farmland, lots of upstate rednecks (my family included)

The culture shock going from Upstate NY to the City is insane.
 
Crayons said:
Sanders had huge losses in the south, yes I know. But that doesn't mean he doesn't have support with any minorities. Take for instance, Washington today. Though there is no specific data on it yet, he clearly must have received a helping hand from the Asian population in and around Seattle.

Clinton's name along is HUGE in the south so the landslide losses aren't unexpected.

It is not just "XXX" person of color here. It's not just a few people here, it's many. Many. When New York votes, I'll admit I have no idea where the rest of the state goes, but check out the five counties of New York City. Sanders is gonna sweep here, and guess what? New York City isn't a very white city at all.
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She has major advantages in NY just like Bernie had tonight.
 
Crayons said:
Sanders had huge losses in the south, yes I know. But that doesn't mean he doesn't have support with any minorities. Take for instance, Washington today. Though there is no specific data on it yet, he clearly must have received a helping hand from the Asian population in and around Seattle.

Clinton's name along is HUGE in the south so the landslide losses aren't unexpected.

It is not just "XXX" person of color here. It's not just a few people here, it's many. Many. When New York votes, I'll admit I have no idea where the rest of the state goes, but check out the five counties of New York City. Sanders is gonna sweep here, and guess what? New York City isn't a very white city at all.
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I will be shocked if Sanders wins New York. This is Clintons state to lose. Her name alone will win her this state. This is basically her state.
 
Crayons said:
-Grassroots support by the Sanders campaign
-Many CUNY colleges here with students who overwhelmingly support Sanders. Big network of colleges with a significant population once you add them all up
-See way more pro-Sanders things than Clinton (have I ever seen Clinton stuff? Maybe not)
-He has support across racial lines
-I've seen lots of people volunteering to get people registered to vote
-Lots of new voters
-Probably will have huge Turnout. Everyone here hates Trump so they pay more attention to politics than usual, to prevent a Trump win

I just see a lot of Bernie enthusiasm here
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I hope you are right.
 
i live literally right next to the Ohio State campus and see many of the same campaign trends as someone near a college in NYC would, if not even more exaggerated considering it's the largest single campus in the US by enrollment north of the 33rd parallel

sanders still lost this county 56-44. in a state where he had better organization than his NYS op seems to.
 
Crayons said:
-Grassroots support by the Sanders campaign
-Many CUNY colleges here with students who overwhelmingly support Sanders. Big network of colleges with a significant population once you add them all up
-See way more pro-Sanders things than Clinton (have I ever seen Clinton stuff? Maybe not)
-He has support across racial lines
-I've seen lots of people volunteering to get people registered to vote
-Lots of new voters

I just see a lot of Bernie enthusiasm here
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Dude, I'm in NYC too and I can tell you he isn't taking the city. You're talking about a single age demographic, there's way more than just young people in the city. The city is far more than just it's colleges. There's 11 million people in the city and college students make up a very small percentage of that. The polling we have so far shows him getting killed. He opened his campaign office here way too late, any voters registered after yesterday can't vote in the primary.

Everything you're saying is anecdotal, what you've seen doesn't necessarily play out across the city as a whole.
 
eBay Huckster said:
i mean, young people literally everywhere in the country are overwhelmingly for bernie sanders, that's not really a new thing
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All the posts about how Sanders only does well with white people would make you think otherwise. And I'm not a native speaker but I'm pretty sure I'm not misreading or mis-characterizing anything; someone just got through telling me a couple of posts above that minority Bernie supporters are just outliers.
 
GYODX said:
All the posts about how Sanders only does well with white people would make you think otherwise.
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i mean, i read a lot of those posts, and my reading of those posts is that they actually say sanders only does well with white people and/or young people

the first group is increasingly irrelevant to the democratic coalition, and the second group just flat-out hasn't voted in numbers sufficient to sustain a campaign reliant on them even now
 
B-Dubs said:
Dude, I'm in NYC too and I can tell you he isn't taking the city. You're talking about a single age demographic, there's way more than just young people in the city. The city is far more than just it's colleges. There's 11 million people in the city and college students make up a very small percentage of that. The polling we have so far shows him getting killed. He opened his campaign office here way too late, any voters registered after yesterday can't vote in the primary.

Everything you're saying is anecdotal, what you've seen doesn't necessarily play out across the city as a whole.
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To be fair I did see some people campaigning for him at the ferry a few times handing stuff out. This was months ago and also seen people on the street a few times. It won't do anything though.
 
Loudninja said:
She has major advantages in NY just like Bernie had tonight.
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I know. For the record, I was expecting him to win New York City.

smokeymicpot said:
I will be shocked if Sanders wins New York. This is Clintons state to lose. Her name alone will win her this state. This is basically her state.
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I know. Clinton does have a major advantage in New York. But I'm expecting the gap to close up in the coming weeks. I don't expect Bernie to win. I would be elated if he does, but I'm not expecting it. But I am expecting it to be far closer than expected.

Gorger said:
I hope you are right.
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I'm just one guy. I wish there were more polls here but unfortunately there aren't many and what we have to go on is mostly anecdotal

eBay Huckster said:
i live literally right next to the Ohio State campus and see many of the same campaign trends as someone near a college in NYC would, if not even more exaggerated considering it's the largest single campus in the US by enrollment north of the 33rd parallel

sanders still lost this county 56-44
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Damn. Ohio was actually called the other upset in the race while I was watching CNN. He did much poorer than anticipated
 
Phased said:
Upstate is really weird.

I grew up there, and it's pretty conservative. Lots of farmland, lots of upstate rednecks (my family included)

The culture shock going from Upstate NY to the City is insane.
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Rural areas are usually better for Bernie, well, at least going by those Washington Caucus results. Hillary did better in Seattle than she did in the rest of mostly rural Washington.
 
Crayons said:
I know. For the record, I was expecting him to win New York City.
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Let me put it this way: if he wins NYC then he will most likely win the state. The City and it's suburbs make up like 60% of the state's population. You can't win a state-wide election in this state without at least splitting NYC. That said, there's no reason to expect him to win it. If we look at similar urban areas, with large amounts of diversity, that's where he's done the worst. He'll likely sweep through upstate, especially the SUNY college towns, but outside of your anecdotal evidence there is no reason to expect him to win the city.
 
Bernie! Bernie! Bernie! Bernie!
giphy.gif


Edit: Saw this on Twitter. Not sure if it's been posted in here.

NsgEWJ9.jpg
 
eyeball_kid said:
Well sure, but again, how much money would it have cost him in ads and campaign infrastructure to go toe-to-toe with Clinton on her home turf and gain 15-20 points in each southern state? And would throwing X millions of dollars into those races have even guaranteed the results they wanted? No, it would've been a huge gamble to spend a large percentage of your funds on an unlikely scenario. That's why the Sanders campaign made the decision to focus on the north and west. I'm of the opinion that his campaign made the best strategic move they could. Maybe if they had an extra $100M in the bank it would've played out differently.
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And the truth is that the reason they're losing this badly is because they are/were playing to win states and not delegates. He's campaigning in the states he's most likely to win, but he's barely winning in those states and losing badly in others that he gave up on.
 
hodayathink said:
And the truth is that the reason they're losing this badly is because they are/were playing to win states and not delegates. He's campaigning in the states he's most likely to win, but he's barely winning in those states and losing badly in others that he gave up on.
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He won all three states today by about 50 point margins.

How is that barely winning?
 
Just as a general statement your [in the general to anyone who's doing this] individual anecdotes, pictures, Facebook walls, are not data.

The Emerson poll with crosstab information, is data for NY.

The Field and PPIC polls are data for California.

The exits from the states that have voted are data.

It's not some sort of outlandish statement to say that most of his support has come from white, young, liberals. That doesn't mean there are zero minority supporters.

It's also not absurd to say her support base has come from older voters, women and people of color.
 
Mr. RPG said:
He won all three states today by about 50 point margins.

How is that barely winning?
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i mean, 50-point margins in all three states amounted to the same net gain as a 30-point win in florida, but yeah, not sure how they qualify as "barely winning"

e: unless they're referring to, well, every single day of the campaign before tonight, in which case it's an accurate depiction
 
Crayons said:
paging pigeon
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It's the middle of the fucking night, man :P

I am very surprised by Bernie winning Hawaii by that much. I probably shouldn't be since Bernie has been pushing so hard and Clinton was messaging that they were writing it off, but I guess I assumed I knew my home state better than that! It just goes to show you how unreliable one's personal experience and the opinions of one's peers can be as a guide to election results.

I will be interested to read more about the breakdown and the various details of the caucus once people wake up and start writing hot takes about it. It's good to actually have some data on Asian-American voters since there has basically been zero up til now.

Needless to say, this doesn't change my personal opinion that Bernie is not a candidate I would trust on intersectional issues.
 
pigeon said:
It's the middle of the fucking night, man :P

I am very surprised by Bernie winning Hawaii by that much.
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I'm not. Dennis Kucinich won the primary on Maui during the 2008 presidentials, Bernie's got a lot of fertile ground here.

EDIT: From reports I've got from friends, caucus turnout today was yuuuuuuuge. Tons of people coming out.
 
pigeon said:
I am very surprised by Bernie winning Hawaii by that much. I probably shouldn't be since Bernie has been pushing so hard and Clinton was messaging that they were writing it off, but I guess I assumed I knew my home state better than that!
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Did you make your prediction before or after Tulsi started being more vocal about her support for Bernie?
 
I doubt Tulsi Gabbard had any effect. (She should arguably be off putting to purity testers given her past comments on gays and her rave reviews from the National Review.)
Nor Mazie Hirono for Clinton.

That it was a caucus basically seems the strongest factor.

Cross posting a bit, but Clinton has only won two state caucuses.
 
Primus said:
I'm not. Dennis Kucinich won the primary on Maui during the 2008 presidentials, Bernie's got a lot of fertile ground here.

EDIT: From reports I've got from friends, caucus turnout today was yuuuuuuuge. Tons of people coming out.
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I can only dream of a Sanders/Kucinich ticket. And Kucinich pantsing Kasich at a VP debate.
 
pigeon said:
It's the middle of the fucking night, man :P

I am very surprised by Bernie winning Hawaii by that much. I probably shouldn't be since Bernie has been pushing so hard and Clinton was messaging that they were writing it off, but I guess I assumed I knew my home state better than that! It just goes to show you how unreliable one's personal experience and the opinions of one's peers can be as a guide to election results.

I will be interested to read more about the breakdown and the various details of the caucus once people wake up and start writing hot takes about it. It's good to actually have some data on Asian-American voters since there has basically been zero up til now.

Needless to say, this doesn't change my personal opinion that Bernie is not a candidate I would trust on intersectional issues.
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I'm surprised too. But my precinct definitely skewed older (something that is obvious when I step outside in the morning, my neighbors are mostly retired folks). Turnout here was not as crazy as some of the stories I heard, and if that random Google doc I saw earlier tonight with preliminary election results was accurate (given that it was linked to by some dude exclaiming that omg the mainstream media is not reporting this!!!) Clinton actually won my precinct by a small margin. Rep. Mark Takai and Gov. David Ige dropped by to vote, which was pretty neat, too.
 
Sanders has won 15 states now and it's been very close (less than 2%) in 4 other states. I think if people had simply known who he was earlier, he could have had a good chance to beat Clinton.
 
Xe4 said:
It's definetly possible, but it wouldn't surprise me to see it go either way. Hawaii both has a large asian and large Native population, both demographic unkowns, which seperates it from the other two caucuses. Also it runs it's caucus differently, which may have an effect.

The one poster frowny Hawaii gave a pretty good lead, so if it ends up being another Sanders blowout I wouldn't be surprised
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So did Sanders win Asians and Native Hawaiian's over, I know he got less than Obama but that's pretty impressive.
 
shinra-bansho said:
Just as a general statement your [in the general to anyone who's doing this] individual anecdotes, pictures, Facebook walls, are not data.

The Emerson poll with crosstab information, is data for NY.

The Field and PPIC polls are data for California.

The exits from the states that have voted are data.

It's not some sort of outlandish statement to say that most of his support has come from white, young, liberals. That doesn't mean there are zero minority supporters.

It's also not absurd to say her support base has come from older voters, women and people of color.
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It is outlandish when talking about NYC. I mean that because I did volunteer in the past and his support is highly mixed across age brackets and ethnicity.

I also say that as someone who has gotten to know how diverse Trump's appeal is in this city.

Compared to national trends I suspect we are one of the highest variance outliers.
 
shinra-bansho said:
Just as a general statement your [in the general to anyone who's doing this] individual anecdotes, pictures, Facebook walls, are not data.

The Emerson poll with crosstab information, is data for NY.

The Field and PPIC polls are data for California.

The exits from the states that have voted are data.

It's not some sort of outlandish statement to say that most of his support has come from white, young, liberals. That doesn't mean there are zero minority supporters.

It's also not absurd to say her support base has come from older voters, women and people of color.
Click to expand...

No, most of his supporters are not young and white, assuming you define young as "millenial". White millennials are a plurality.
 
Just read in the UK news that Bernie won Hawaii, Alaska and Washington? And by good margins? I feel like just the other day someone on GAF told me he didn't have a chance in Alaska. In any case, great result. I really hope he keeps up this sort of momentum.
 
CrankyKong said:
Was Bernie expected to win any states besides Vermont when he announced last year?
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I know that by July or so he was being taken seriously because he had drawn huge crowds across a number of cities and was raising a lot of money, but it's hard to remember the exact point where people realized he wasn't going to be some fringe candidate in line with, say, Rand Paul.

That said, I think he's outperformed the expectations of pretty much anyone who wasn't riding the Bernie train. I remember a lot of people saying he would only win Vermont on Super Tuesday and things like that.
 
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