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[norm9]

I expect he'll stay in as a message candidate and stop trying to tank her favorables amongst his supporters.

And the donations.

 

[Maxim726X]

You're trying to make some sort of point here.

I've already explained myself in my initial post. You seem dedicated to trying to find a fault somewhere.

Yes, the point is quite simple.

You said your absurd position is defensible by polls that you've recently seen. When pressed for said polls, you apparently couldn't make sense of the question. Then, someone else asks and you bring up a poll in which Clinton's lead has increased and that somehow justifies your belief that she'll win by one point.

What part didn't you understand?

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

So was saying that everyone who's ready to vote is good to go.

There could still be people who forgot, there could be people who switch, etc.

It's people being human.

I have some bad news for people who want to switch parties five days before the primary. (if that's what you meant)

Anyways, you basically have an untold amount of variables to give him a chance of winning, so that's just speaking for itself.

 

[Puppen]

He didn't say that. He just showed a poll that suggests the majority of viewers thoughts Sanders won the debate. You're defensively reading way too much into the image because it probably bothers you a bit to see.

Hahaha. "It probably bothers you."

I can't fucking wait for Bernie to lose so his irritating supporters can go away.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I expect he'll stay in as a message candidate and stop trying to tank her favorables amongst his supporters.

Maybe. But I hope he tries to seriously stop the seething hate band wagon against Hillary that his camp has fanned the flames of.

 

[maabus1999]

Like I told my wife when he said that, I'd argue dropping two atomic bombs on civilians in Hiroshima and Nagasaki were far bigger foreign policy mistakes.

I know it is twisted but without those two events, I honestly think we could've seen a nuclear exchange during the cold war. It put a real face on the terror of nuclear weapons.

 

[MThanded]

Ashodin is on an ultra light beam.

 

[Cipherr]

After Tuesday night, the love NY is getting is going to change from "New Yorkers are gonna show up for Bernie" to "Who cares about NY and their corrupt Wall Street people anyway".

 

[exmachina64]

Like I told my wife when he said that, I'd argue dropping two atomic bombs on civilians in Hiroshima and Nagasaki were far bigger foreign policy mistakes.

Fucking A.

 

[RustyNails]

So was saying that everyone who's ready to vote is good to go.

There could still be people who forgot, there could be people who switch, etc.

It's people being human.

you cant switch

i swear. just stop posting and go play videogames.

 

[Ashodin]

I just think people are confused because you sourced your opinion from a Marist poll that shows Hillary's lead INCREASING rather than decreasing.....so, people maybe are a little confused on that.

People are confused because I thought that from a recent poll (as I am supposed to take inference from, not ancient polls that aren't indicative of what's currently going on) that I think momentum and grassroots organization in the state could make the margins closer than the poll has shown?

I'm confused as to why they're confused. Am I expected to show a poll that backs up my gut feeling? It's precisely why it's a gut feeling. Explaining what poll I took my prediction from shouldn't matter except that it was recent.

you cant switch

i swear. just stop posting and go play videogames.

Switch their vote. Not their party.

 

[ant1532]

Bernie was lit, he had the crowd lit. NY going to be lit.

BK stand up!

 

[MIMIC]

What are you talking about? This is the weirdest thing to be discussing right now when we had a 2 hour debate.

please give me a source

I'm honestly perplexed.

De Blasio was interviewed on CNN shortly after the video hit the Internet and confirmed that it was part of a sketch and this:

Mrs. Clinton jumped in at the prearranged skit: “Cautious politician time,” she said. “I’ve been there.”

 

[User 463088]

After Tuesday night, the love NY is getting is going to change from "New Yorkers are gonna show up for Bernie" to "Who cares about NY and their corrupt Wall Street people anyway".

They can join the rest of us under the bus with Planned Parenthood, Democratic Whores, the South...and everyone else.

 

[Prodigal Son]

Hahaha. "It probably bothers you."

I can't fucking wait for Bernie to lose so his irritating supporters can go away.

We've elected George W. Bush. Twice. If you get a kick out of aligning your political ideology with the average American's, more power to you, man.

 

[Zornack]

I think he means switch from Hillary to Sanders, though I find that unlikely considering it's trending in the opposite direction.

 

[Maxim726X]

People are confused because I thought that from a recent poll (as I am supposed to take inference from, not ancient polls that aren't indicative of what's currently going on) that I think momentum and grassroots organization in the state could make the margins closer than the poll has shown?

I'm confused as to why they're confused. Am I expected to show a poll that backs up my gut feeling? It's precisely why it's a gut feeling. Explaining what poll I took my prediction from shouldn't matter except that it was recent.

Because the poll you chose to make your point has her lead increased. So basically, your point is completely illogical.

 

[semisonic]

Ashodin is on an ultra light beam.

I'm kinda shocked he doesn't have a tag by now, honestly

 

[rjinaz]

Ok debate is over. Think I'll exit now while progressives fight each other on neogaf. See you on the other side, aka the general.

 

[RustyNails]

People are confused because I thought that from a recent poll (as I am supposed to take inference from, not ancient polls that aren't indicative of what's currently going on) that I think momentum and grassroots organization in the state could make the margins closer than the poll has shown?

I'm confused as to why they're confused. Am I expected to show a poll that backs up my gut feeling? It's precisely why it's a gut feeling. Explaining what poll I took my prediction from shouldn't matter except that it was recent.

How recent

 

[Cipherr]

People are confused because I thought that from a recent poll (as I am supposed to take inference from, not ancient polls that aren't indicative of what's currently going on) that I think momentum and grassroots organization in the state could make the margins closer than the poll has shown?

There is nothing in that poll to signal or support the 'gut feeling' you developed after viewing it.

I believe that's the rub. You may as well have had the gut feeling after having a good lunch, because the poll shows zero data that would point to, or suggest what your gut came up with.

 

[daemissary]

I have no doubt that Hillary will win NY but in what world is it fair that you need to register as a democrat by October there to vote....how isn't that voter suppression?

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

Because the poll you chose to make your point has her lead increased. So basically, your point is completely illogical.

you've heard the term retroactive momentum?

this is the inverse momentum theorem.

 

[Garrett Hawke]

you've heard the term retroactive momentum?

this is the inverse momentum theorem.

Going so fast in the opposite direction he'll actually come out on top! There's some hard science! None of this economics nonsense.

 

[Maxim726X]

you've heard the term retroactive momentum?

this is the inverse momentum theorem.

So... Opposite day?

Why didn't he say so! Now it all makes sense.

 

[MThanded]

De Blasio was interviewed on CNN shortly after the video hit the Internet and confirmed that it was part of a sketch and this:

Thanks for the link. What's confusing is that it's deblasio's skit. What is the bigger point you are trying to make here. No one I know and no one in here is talking about this. It honestly seems like a huge distraction.

You have a right to be offended but what is the bigger point here?

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

I have no doubt that Hillary will win NY but in what world is it fair that you need to register as a democrat by October there to vote....how isn't that voter suppression?

because people had months to register for the party and the white house race was well underway at that point.

 

[davepoobond]

I have no doubt that Hillary will win NY but in what world is it fair that you need to register as a democrat by October there to vote....how isn't that voter suppression?

its called a closed primary. there are open primaries, closed primaries, open caucuses, closed caucuses. states can pick and choose whatever they want

 

[RustyNails]

Switch their vote. Not their party.

This is worse than switching parties. Polling firms have screeners in place to account for leans/undecideds.

 

[massoluk]

I'm confused as to why they're confused. Am I expected to show a poll that backs up my gut feeling? It's precisely why it's a gut feeling. Explaining what poll I took my prediction from shouldn't matter except that it was recent.



Switch their vote. Not their party.

People just want to know where you're gut feeling coming from. It's certainly not from any known polls, or Hillary's historical success in New York. And the debate answers honestly didn't really gel with NY people (gun control, Israel)

 

[B-Dubs]

I have no doubt that Hillary will win NY but in what world is it fair that you need to register as a democrat by October there to vote....how isn't that voter suppression?

Pretty much everyone in the state is a registered Democrat. Out of 11 million or so voters 6 million are registered Dems. The number of independents is like 350k, it's not enough to tilt the numbers even if they could vote. Also, registering is stupid easy.

 

[norm9]

its called a closed primary. there are open primaries, closed primaries, open caucuses, closed caucuses. states can pick and choose whatever they want

That doesn't seem fair if a potential voter has been frothing at the mouth for months for a revolution. Who has time to register?

 

[Ogrekiller]

So... Opposite day?

Why didn't he say so! Now it all makes sense.

It turns out the Democrats have their own rule 40b where it is second place that wins the nomination since second place gets a bullet bill AND a blue shell.

 

[Ashodin]

Yes, the point is quite simple.

You said your absurd position is defensible by polls that you've recently seen. When pressed for said polls, you apparently couldn't make sense of the question. Then, someone else asks and you bring up a poll in which Clinton's lead has increased and that somehow justifies your belief that she'll win by one point.

What part didn't you understand?

Okay. Let's go over exactly what I said, so we can be clear on this.

This is my personal prediction, based on what numbers I've seen and what momentum I feel Bernie has.

My Feelings + Marist Poll = Prediction

It's not at all based on cold hard facts besides some polls I saw.

Basically, I said "My Feelings + Marist Poll = Prediction again, take with grain of salt"

This is pretty basic stuff here. I never said "my prediction is defensible, this poll I used to make it shows it is true!" What you need to be calling out here is my feelings. Obviously, to many, my feelings are wrong. But my feelings are subjective, not objective, thus it is subject to my own bias and/or feelings based on stuff I've read about grassroots movement and the debate here tonight even.

You can call my position absurd. That's fine. I'd agree if I weren't rooting for my own personal candidate too. But this is politics. I have a horse in this race and I'd like to see my candidate win. Doesn't mean it will happen, but I can dream.

 

[User 463088]

I have no doubt that Hillary will win NY but in what world is it fair that you need to register as a democrat by October there to vote....how isn't that voter suppression?

Primaries are not elections, they're party events.

Closed primaries exist, in part, to stop people from deliberately throwing the primary. If you have a non-contested Democratic primary, because of the sheer number of Democrats, we could totally throw the GOP results however we wanted with strategic voting. It protects the integrity of the result, and makes sure only party members can vote in the primary.

 

[BudokaiMR2]

At work having lunch now. Is there an archived version of the full debate anywhere or am I stuck with clips?

 

[VendettaRed07]

I have no doubt that Hillary will win NY but in what world is it fair that you need to register as a democrat by October there to vote....how isn't that voter suppression?

I don't like it either.

People who are independents should have more time to register. In CT, if you are unaffiliated you can register just a few days before the primary, but if you are a registered republican the deadline to switch is a lot sooner. I think that does help the intended purpose of making sure there isn't tactical voting from people from the other side who want to vote for the weakest candidate.

 

[Zornack]

Okay. Let's go over exactly what I said, so we can be clear on this.



My Feelings + Marist Poll = Prediction



Basically, I said "My Feelings + Marist Poll = Prediction again, take with grain of salt"

This is pretty basic stuff here. I never said "my prediction is defensible, this poll I used to make it shows it is true!" What you need to be calling out here is my feelings. Obviously, to many, my feelings are wrong. But my feelings are subjective, not objective, thus it is subject to my own bias and/or feelings based on stuff I've read about grassroots movement and the debate here tonight even.

You can call my position absurd. That's fine. I'd agree if I weren't rooting for my own personal candidate too. But this is politics. I have a horse in this race and I'd like to see my candidate win. Doesn't mean it will happen, but I can dream.

A prediction is what you expect to happen, not what you hope will happen.

 

[MIMIC]

Thanks for the link. What's confusing is that it's deblasio's skit. What is the bigger point you are trying to make here. No one I know and no one in here is talking about this. It honestly seems like a huge distraction.

You have a right to be offended but what is the bigger point here?

I was responding to the "implications" of Bernie's reference to the "deep South"....with an actual reference to Hillary making a joke at black people's expense.

 

[davepoobond]

That doesn't seem fair if a potential voter has been frothing at the mouth for months for a revolution. Who has time to register?

or vote in a primary, for that matter


primaries are undemocratic by virtue

 

[MThanded]

#freeashodin

 

[EatinOlives]

I don't understand why Hillary can't nip the transcript bullshit in the bud.

It's a matter of calling it what it is: a cheap ploy to distract people from the real issues. Bernie has no message here, it's just a bunch of winks and elbow nudges from his camp as they repeat "I bet there's SOMETHING interesting there! Eh?? Eh?!" over and over with no substance whatsoever. "Why not just release them??" because, as with any nonsense talking point, engaging in the conversation and doing what they want you to do automatically has them win, regardless of whether or not you were ultimately in the right.

It's as easy as that, and Hillary should twist the knife where it's appropriate; it's a clear attempt at taking a page from the GOP book and start distracting people from the real issues, and that she wouldn't be dragged down with her by engaging in a conversation as meaningless as what is in those transcripts.

Her trying to justify it by saying some generic platitude about how she totes for realz "stood up to Wall Street" is just walking right into Bernie's talking point about how her "standing up" didn't do anything in the long run.

 

[massoluk]

You can call my position absurd. That's fine. I'd agree if I weren't rooting for my own personal candidate too. But this is politics. I have a horse in this race and I'd like to see my candidate win. Doesn't mean it will happen, but I can dream.

Ok, so is it fair to say you WANT (not predict) the result to be 51-49, but your predict it will be worse for Sanders.

 

[B.O.O.M]

lol you guys got no chill

 

[Michael F. Assbender]

At work having lunch now. Is there an archived version of the full debate anywhere or am I stuck with clips?

Just look up any WWE PPV and listen to the crowd when a big star enters thru the curtains. That's what the debate sounded like.

 

[Maxim726X]

Okay. Let's go over exactly what I said, so we can be clear on this.



My Feelings + Marist Poll = Prediction



Basically, I said "My Feelings + Marist Poll = Prediction again, take with grain of salt"

This is pretty basic stuff here. I never said "my prediction is defensible, this poll I used to make it shows it is true!" What you need to be calling out here is my feelings. Obviously, to many, my feelings are wrong. But my feelings are subjective, not objective, thus it is subject to my own bias and/or feelings based on stuff I've read about grassroots movement and the debate here tonight even.

You can call my position absurd. That's fine. I'd agree if I weren't rooting for my own personal candidate too. But this is politics. I have a horse in this race and I'd like to see my candidate win. Doesn't mean it will happen, but I can dream.

So basically- feelings. Because the Marist poll is the polar opposite of all the bullshit I just read.

 

[daemissary]

Primaries are not elections, they're party events.

Closed primaries exist, in part, to stop people from deliberately throwing the primary. If you have a non-contested Democratic primary, because of the sheer number of Democrats, we could totally throw the GOP results however we wanted with strategic voting. It protects the integrity of the result, and makes sure only party members can vote in the primary.

I understand the reasons for having closed primaries, an October deadline just seems absurdly premature.

 

[JesseEwiak]

I don't understand why Hillary can't nip the transcript bullshit in the bud.

It's a matter of calling it what it is: a cheap ploy to distract people from the real issues. Bernie has no message here, it's just a bunch of winks and elbow nudges from his camp as they repeat "I bet there's SOMETHING interesting there! Eh?? Eh?!" over and over with no substance whatsoever. "Why not just release them??" because, as with any nonsense talking point, engaging in the conversation and doing what they want you to do automatically has them win, regardless of whether or not you were ultimately in the right.

It's as easy as that, and Hillary should twist the knife where it's appropriate; it's a clear attempt at taking a page from the GOP book and start distracting people from the real issues, and that she wouldn't be dragged down with her by engaging in a conversation as meaningless as what is in those transcripts.

Her trying to justify it by saying some generic platitude about how she totes for realz "stood up to Wall Street" is just walking right into Bernie's talking point about how her "standing up" didn't do anything in the long run.

Joke Answer - She's going to release her transcripts on Night 3 of the Republican Convention as Trump and Cruz supporters are fighting in the streets of Cleveland.

Real Answer - It's an issue only a small percentage of people care about and will only be a drag during the primary because I'm sure she said the nice things you say when you've been invited to speak before a group (ie. "Wall Street is integral to the American economy")

 

[norm9]

Just look up any WWE PPV and listen to the crowd when a big star enters thru the curtains. That's what the debate sounded like.

Roman would look good in one of Hillary's smocks.

 

[MThanded]

I was responding to the "implications" of Bernie's reference to the "deep South"....with an actual reference to Hillary making a joke at black people's expense.

Hillary didn't make a joke at black peoples expense. It wasn't her line or her skit.

Independent on how you spin it still think that's less toxic than implying southern blacks don't know what's good for them.

We'll have to agree to disagree. Seems clear as day to me.