DriftingSpirit
Member
lol nice.
April 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes May 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
I'm suprised they haven't kept the price $299.
Think about it like this, I'm sure they now intend to have it at $299 for the holidays and include some games, but the PS4 will assuredly also be $299 and include some games. So it's just a repeat of last holiday, except without Halo.
I dunno, after this I'm pretty confident in official pricing changes come E3, either just to make it more attractive or because they have a new console as well.
Think about it like this, I'm sure they now intend to have it at $299 for the holidays and include some games, but the PS4 will assuredly also be $299 and include some games. So it's just a repeat of last holiday, except without Halo.
I dunno, after this I'm pretty confident in official pricing changes come E3, either just to make it more attractive or because they have a new console as well.
Nightengale
Member
There'll be a Halo. (Wars 2)
And this year's blockbuster equivalent is Gears anyway.
And this year's blockbuster equivalent is Gears anyway.
I suppose a $299 Gears 4 bundle would do good, as long as they don't do the weird premium bundle and sell it for 400 or sommit, like they did with Halo.
I don't have much confidence in Halo Wars 2, but I'm getting it on PC.
Primethius
Banned
It's so strange but I've been thinking about Gears 4 and I'd almost be surprised now if it doesn't open much better then Halo 5.
I feel like the marketing for the game is just better. Where as Halo 5 marketing was kinda bad, sometimes cringe worthy and failed to attract casuals sufficiently.
Just feels weird being so confident in a prediction like this given that I never would've imagined this scenario a year ago.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
[3DS] 110k
[PS4] 245k
[WIU] 45k
[XB1] 180K
May change later. Now sure how things will land, but Ratchet and Clank will out do Quantum Break and Star Fox... combined. Without bundles, of course.
[PS4] 245k
[WIU] 45k
[XB1] 180K
May change later. Now sure how things will land, but Ratchet and Clank will out do Quantum Break and Star Fox... combined. Without bundles, of course.
freefornow
Member
Well, he also said it picked up after that. We also have the fastest selling information.
Either way, stick with your convictions! Bets aren't fun if someone gives up halfway through.
Oh yeah, I'm sticking with it. Not sure there is an actual "bet" though.
spatenfloot
Member
PSVR could make the holiday season interesting.
slavesnyder
Member
That would be an epic surprise. People would go nuts.
not a bit.
People might hold it for uncharted bundle, though.
DriftingSpirit
Member
That's less than a month away would have been assembly line leaks if so. I've not seen a major CE part yet that was not get leaked by Chinese assembly workers.
slavesnyder
Member
With PS4Neo almost being a certainty, do you think we will also see a slim version of the basic PS4?
Normally a slim would make sense. Refreshing the look, saving on weight and space for productions and shipments, maybe even saving actual costs in productions. On the other hand PSVR and Neo take a lot of planning, logistic and R&D resources, so it might be too much. Plus, the PS4 is already quite slim.
Some predictions:
Starfox will chart, higher than Bravely Second
GTA5 will be higher than Quantum Break
MSPR will mention Windows10, Gears of War, XboxOne, Quantum Break and MAU
Sony PR will mention Uncharted, Ratchet, Dark Souls, VR and E3
Minecraft will not chart
Dark Souls will be first, Ratchet second
PS4 will sell as much as xboxone and WiiU combined +/- 10%
Normally a slim would make sense. Refreshing the look, saving on weight and space for productions and shipments, maybe even saving actual costs in productions. On the other hand PSVR and Neo take a lot of planning, logistic and R&D resources, so it might be too much. Plus, the PS4 is already quite slim.
Some predictions:
Starfox will chart, higher than Bravely Second
GTA5 will be higher than Quantum Break
MSPR will mention Windows10, Gears of War, XboxOne, Quantum Break and MAU
Sony PR will mention Uncharted, Ratchet, Dark Souls, VR and E3
Minecraft will not chart
Dark Souls will be first, Ratchet second
PS4 will sell as much as xboxone and WiiU combined +/- 10%
harrisk954
Member
[PS4] 255K
[XB1] 220K
[3DS] 155k
[WIU] 28k
[XB1] 220K
[3DS] 155k
[WIU] 28k
This year around the same time Neo and PSVR are launching? I'm not sure. Ever? Yes.
ethomaz
Banned
Here we go...
PS4 will be up not due new releases but due how low it did last year... I expect 210k.
Xbone in my view will stay flat but it will hold the smaller gap against PS4 for 2016 (I'm prediction all 2016 here)... 190k.
Wii U will be a little up... 45k.
3DS will be up yoy because I like big emotions... 130k.
[3DS] 130k
[PS4] 210k
[WIU] 45k
[XB1] 190k
Bold predictions...
- Ethomaz won't be first
- SFV > 40k
- DS3 will be first with > 400k
- R&C > 250k > QB > 150k
PS4 will be up not due new releases but due how low it did last year... I expect 210k.
Xbone in my view will stay flat but it will hold the smaller gap against PS4 for 2016 (I'm prediction all 2016 here)... 190k.
Wii U will be a little up... 45k.
3DS will be up yoy because I like big emotions... 130k.
[3DS] 130k
[PS4] 210k
[WIU] 45k
[XB1] 190k
Bold predictions...
- Ethomaz won't be first
- SFV > 40k
- DS3 will be first with > 400k
- R&C > 250k > QB > 150k
slavesnyder
Member
Okay, we got ethomaz' numbers.
You can calculate the results, donnie
You can calculate the results, donnie
DriftingSpirit
Member
CorporateClown
Member
PS4] 201K
[XB1] 175K
[3DS] 102K
[WIU] 39K
[XB1] 175K
[3DS] 102K
[WIU] 39K
LordRaptor
Member
I suspect if we do it will just be the same form factor as the neo but with missing internal components
[3DS] 117K
[PS4] 149K
[WIU] 34K
[XB1] 129K
[PS4] 149K
[WIU] 34K
[XB1] 129K
- Xb1 does a great job stipulating its monthly beating with the unofficial price cut / QB combo.
- That said, QB's sales performance will be really underwhelming. Expecting it to get punted by both MLB and R&C
- PS4 will see a small YoY bump, thanks to the extra momemtum built by MLB and R&C
- Ds3 will do better then 2, but not significantly. Heavily slanted towards PS4.
Also, Uncharted 4 claimed top 5 in April on Amazon.com ( 12th place in January ). Now it's at 1st place for a few days now ( a week before release ). I know, i know. it's Amazon. But whatever. Just for reference, Halo 5 wasn't that high in September on Amazon.com ( and we all know how it ended ) like Uncharted 4 was in April and now before release. Yep, launch will be huge. And i really mean damn huge!
Abdiel, what are the preorders for U4 in your district?
Abdiel, what are the preorders for U4 in your district?
But you predict Wii U up YOY... ???
Also 3DS up YOY would be pretty damn good, i don't see that happening. Though last two months you predicted 170-177K, and both predictions were super spot on while all other predictions were way pecsimist, so i just wait and see what's happen.
Cmon Abdiel, you KNOW you want to answer " Off the CHARTS" on that one
I'll have to see if I can get more specific numbers, but it's doing really well. I don't remember how the last of us did for preorders, but our Sony rep was pleased as punch the last time he was here. Both for U4 and r and c.
Even the limited bundle is doing pretty well. Making it an actual limited system that's styled helps. It's a collector's item without being too expensive.
CosmicQueso
Member
DAMN. If Ethomaz says it, it must be coming true though.
lol no. Ethomaz 90% of times is wrong with software. he was just right with hardware.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Nice!
Hmmm, interesting. MLB15 debuted at #4 in April and went to #9 in May. If these predictions come true, then QB could either not chart or make it in by the skin of its teeth.
CosmicQueso
Member
Let the hate flow through you!
ethomaz
Banned
Ohhhhhh I checked Wii U wrong numbers... yeap it will be up a little.But you predict Wii U up YOY... ???
Also 3DS up YOY would be pretty damn good, i don't see that happening. Though last two months you predicted 170-177K, and both predictions were super spot on while all other predictions were way pecsimist, so i just wait and see what's happen.
To be fair this month is a hard one to predict because there are so little to help sales
ethomaz
Banned
Nah I'm more confident with QB place than R&C over 250k... I tried to push some bold prediction here.
In any case I really believe R&C > QB after UK numbers but I guess that the common thinking here.
Thebeardofknowledge
Banned
does anyone have a ballpark for how many copies of COD have been sold to date ?
Welfare
Member
Ohhhhhh I checked Wii U wrong numbers... yeap it will be up a little.
To be fair this month is a hard one to predict because there are so little to help sales
Wii U is easy to predict. Down YoY and will probably have a slightly worse drop in its weekly average since Nintendo are slowing Wii U shipments by a lot this year and last quarter.
slavesnyder
Member
Nintendo had a new game. That's quite unusual. So maybe some people bought the console.
Bioshocker
Member
[PS4] 205K
[XB1] 170K
[3DS] 90K
[WIU] 40K
I predict that Quantum Break will disappoint. Top 10, yeah likely, but it probably won't be top 5 and Microsoft will say nothing about sales numbers.
[XB1] 170K
[3DS] 90K
[WIU] 40K
I predict that Quantum Break will disappoint. Top 10, yeah likely, but it probably won't be top 5 and Microsoft will say nothing about sales numbers.
Omnistalgic
Member
R&C will be big
UC4 will be bigger
PS4 will win
Stay safe is my motto...
UC4 will be bigger
PS4 will win
Stay safe is my motto...