Damn, that sounds hard, sorry to hear that, man. And yeah, glad you're back! I love your crazy predictions and you're a great poster here in my book.
April 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes May 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
There is nothing stealth about it - competition is very good and a cornerstone of this industry - look what happened with the absolute domination of PS2 and then $599 and an architecture that probably still gives developers recurring nightmares.
Xbox 360 being for hardcore gamers with an extremely impressive library/installbase and they literally firing a missile at themselves in the Xbox One reveal and ensuing chaos leading to E3 13.
Competition will keep each platform holder wanting to eat into each others marketshare by constantly innovating and delivering what the consumer wants - which in this industry is compelling games.
I really want Nintendo to release a console that is met with great success - this will tie into a very solid launch lineup, positive buzz surrounding the reveal and building momentum until launch - which I don't see as March 17 at all. More likely a Holiday 17 launch but I'd love a March 17 release.
The bottom of the barrel PR release about their embarrassing plans for E3 don't inspire much confidence that they have an iota of an idea of what they're doing anymore. They really need an earth shattering E3 with game after game and a solid console, something I think they will eventually have, but June 2016 is the right time, and they blew it again.
A company with a large assortment of IPs paved in gold and a very loyal fanbase - yet they literally seem like they don't give a fuck about them.
That is why it is very important this Microsoft ride through the tough times, learn from their mistakes (which I think they have) and release a great new console - they keep trying, something I feel Nintendo has lost sight of.
Sony has plenty of competition outside of Microsoft. Looking at the console landscape and thinking that they are only in competition with each other and not the gaming market at large is incredibly short sighted.
There is plenty of very real and very prominent competition for the success of Sony's gaming initiatives regardless of the current market position of Microsoft. Do not mistake their platform as a necessity for the market or for competition. It's not. Just like Sony is not a necessity as a check for MS. And, no, revisionist cries about a company's history do not change the reality of the contemporary market. This has been explained countless times. The world and the technology available has dramatically changed since then. It's not applicable comparison.
Well, if you missed it, there was some hilarity with the PC port. We'll see how WoM affected that deal.
Just stay away from expletives and you should be fine. Honestly, I think expletives are your Achilles heel.
He already did that by shutting down Lionhead studios, causing the shutdown of DarkSide games and making 343i and Black Tusk into single IP factories with no hope of originality.
That's kind of a big ass mark, don't you think?
Compare the E3 under Mattrick and the two subsequent E3's under Phil. Remove any game shown under Mattrick and cancelled games ala Phantom Dust and Fable Legends from Phil's output. Puts a lot of things in perspective.
You should've been in the PS4 sales thread.
I would've gotten a bingo...*sad face*
Oh I'm aware but the 2 for 1 deal was preorder only so it woulnt have impacted the sales under that promotion. That said it could very well have affected post release sales of the game on PC but that's also a platform from instead by digital which wouldn't be tracked. It'll be an interesting one to watch for sure. Lots of factors in play here.
You could be right. I'll try to keep my potty mouth in check. Mama Rex didn't raise no savage heathen but the temptation is real with some of these threads.
AnthonypUK
Member
And when are people going to start Judging Phil Spencer?
Don Mattrick was in his role 3-4 years, Spencers been in it over 2, he was also head of Microsoft Games studios since 2008.
In those roles hes been responsible for the consolidation of studios into factories, a reduction in first party studios, losing bungie, hes been responsible for green lighting / mis-managing all these under performing games, hes been responsible for declining sales in thier biggest franchises, hes underseen shit shows like the Master Chief collection and all these shitty UWP PC ports. Hes been losing marketing deals all over the place to the competition - even the one they were synonymous with - COD and the ones they've had, they've not capitalized on - basicaslly relying on EA and his mate Peter Moore throwing him a bone. Hes made awful deals like the Tomb Raider one, consoles sales under his watch have stagnated so much that they're now not reporting them for the first time ever, and in NPD's they're down YOY in their biggest market. They're still way behind on Indies, on second party deals, they're out of ideas to push the console in any region other then the UK and US.
but Phil listens to us on twitter and wears game related Tee's..so hes cool.
3DS to outsell the PS4, XB1 and Wii U combined in April. Nintendo cancels all NX plans and focuses solely on the 3DS.
3DS to outsell the PS4, XB1 and Wii U combined in April. Nintendo cancels all NX plans and focuses solely on the 3DS.
Joke aside, it's not like Nintendo has not plans for 3DS lol, they are gonna release one of their bigger games (if not THE bigger some times?) this holidays: Pokémon Moon and Sun, and they already annunced a pricedrop for this holidays.
They also eastimate 3DS to outsell Wii U by 6:1 this fiscal year.
Oh, yeah, I forgot about that. I don't usually follow Nintendo news.
Voost Kain
Banned
[XB1] 223K
[PS4] 169K
[3DS] 76K
[WIU] 27K
And just in case we get them 360: 11k PS3: 6k, Wii:.5k
[PS4] 169K
[3DS] 76K
[WIU] 27K
And just in case we get them 360: 11k PS3: 6k, Wii:.5k
Voost Kain
Banned
People hate Don for the XO reveal yet he wasn't directly influential in that decision, but Phil was, despite him not liking the idea. Also hate zkinect all you want but it damn worked. Still got some great non-Kinect exclusives but Kinect boosted sales and for gamers such as us it took about a year or so before we realized it was limited. The casual took it for almost 3.
Phil did good 2nd E3 though there were some snags.
But people give him credit for the first amazing E3 (note not the reveal) with the revivals and games games games, when that was already prepared by Don.
Phil did good 2nd E3 though there were some snags.
But people give him credit for the first amazing E3 (note not the reveal) with the revivals and games games games, when that was already prepared by Don.
PanicFreak
Member
My BOLD prediction is that Gears 4 will sell more copies in its first tracked month than Halo 5 did last year.
ethomaz
Banned
3rdamention
Member
There is still a small chance you could see slim consoles or upgraded consoles that month, or soon after, which you have ignored in your prediction....That could change things...And if they don't release, the rumors alone could effect sales of both consoles...
Why would someone buy a second Xbox One just for a Gears Bundle when there could be an upgraded system around the corner? We will know more about this at E3 and how it could impact sales later in the year...or into next year...
CosmicQueso
Member
Nah. People that care about this already made a purchase decision. Laggards who have yet to purchase a Console and will won't be influenced by this, they probably will never even know upgraded consoles are happening.
Why would someone buy a second Xbox One at all? You're talking an very, very small % of households that would own 2 of any particular console.
Sales won't be negatively impacted at all... all we'll see is an incremental bump, perhaps slightly larger than we've seen with historical slim releases.
Competition is good though.
Bit of a false assumption in there. Nintendo appealed (past tense) to a different market than either box with the Wii, but there's no evidence to believe that it can bring that market back to Consoles or dedicated handhelds again.
And, if Nintendo does actually succeed, it's a growth opportunity for Nintendo, and not necessarily the rest of the industry.
At this point, Nintendo's presence in the video game space is that of a niche player really. Which is fine, but certainly not likely to be a significant market mover like it has been in the past.
But maybe I'm wrong.
Yeah, I agree that it's a small percentage but if the console has a special design and/or people are really anticipating the game then they will get it. The white PS4 for Destiny is the best example this gen by far in my opinion.
While I don't think a ton of people who already had an Xbox One before October 2015 bought the Halo bundle (probably less than 20K), that amount still helped the system do better than the PS4 that month -- especially since it was by a small amount.
Sangetsu-II
Member
I don't think October will be a toss up for PS4, we have Horizon and The Last Guardian both coming out this holiday (maybe). I could see them as both october and november titles which would move consoles if a special bundle is announced for them. If not we always have PS4 marketing bundles with the AAA 3rd party games.
Horizon won't come out this year.
Sangetsu-II
Member
Nothing is confirmed as of yet. Don't ruin people's dreams xD
....
Now that a mentioned that what ever happened to MM Dreams Open Beta we where supposed to have?
Primethius
Banned
Horizon was never going to come out this year. They said last year that they were "targeting 2016."
In this generation of delays, that's pretty much as much of a confirmation as any that it's not gonna land in 2016.
In this generation of delays, that's pretty much as much of a confirmation as any that it's not gonna land in 2016.
slavesnyder
Member
This statement is, of course, 100% true, but often misused on Gaf.
Without competition, there would be a monopoly with all the riscs of becoming lazy, arrogant or exploiting. Where there is no alternative to your product, you can dictate the rules as you like or relax on your unchallenged position. Consumers will have to buy your stuff anyway.
The statement "Xbox has to sell well because competition is good" is a sign that someone doesn't understand jack. Or doesn't want to.
Xbox is not selling well because of competition. It's not against the rule, but the logical conclusion of it. There are alternatives on the market (aka competition) that seem to offer better value in the eyes of the consumer. He decides. That's not unfair, it's just consequent. If MS doesn't want or isn't able to find ways to make if more appealing it's their problem, not ours.
Sony had big trouble with PS3 because there was the 360. They took notes and turned around the PS3 as far as possible by changing price, message and offering games and services like PS+ that led to better reception of their product.
If MS left the market and Nintendo kept on producing freak stuff, Sony would be the only huge mass market video console manufacturer. That would be bad because there would be no competition. On the other hand we don't know if someone else would step in directly, or if alternatives still would challenge Sony to stay busy and consumer-friendly. Playstation's (and Xbox's) opponents are not only consoles, but gaming platforms in general (AppleTV, SteamBox, Tablets, PC, whatever).
This is the same situation as for the NintendoDS, where the biggest challenge doesn't come from the Vita (haha), but from smartphones. If Nintendo finds a way to stay relevant for portable gaming and offer something where experience, price and convenience please the market they will be fine. If not, they will have a problem (they already have).
So: Competition is good, but no product should be mourned just because it adds to the number of market participants.
P.S.: Hello Rex, nice to see you back.
Without competition, there would be a monopoly with all the riscs of becoming lazy, arrogant or exploiting. Where there is no alternative to your product, you can dictate the rules as you like or relax on your unchallenged position. Consumers will have to buy your stuff anyway.
The statement "Xbox has to sell well because competition is good" is a sign that someone doesn't understand jack. Or doesn't want to.
Xbox is not selling well because of competition. It's not against the rule, but the logical conclusion of it. There are alternatives on the market (aka competition) that seem to offer better value in the eyes of the consumer. He decides. That's not unfair, it's just consequent. If MS doesn't want or isn't able to find ways to make if more appealing it's their problem, not ours.
Sony had big trouble with PS3 because there was the 360. They took notes and turned around the PS3 as far as possible by changing price, message and offering games and services like PS+ that led to better reception of their product.
If MS left the market and Nintendo kept on producing freak stuff, Sony would be the only huge mass market video console manufacturer. That would be bad because there would be no competition. On the other hand we don't know if someone else would step in directly, or if alternatives still would challenge Sony to stay busy and consumer-friendly. Playstation's (and Xbox's) opponents are not only consoles, but gaming platforms in general (AppleTV, SteamBox, Tablets, PC, whatever).
This is the same situation as for the NintendoDS, where the biggest challenge doesn't come from the Vita (haha), but from smartphones. If Nintendo finds a way to stay relevant for portable gaming and offer something where experience, price and convenience please the market they will be fine. If not, they will have a problem (they already have).
So: Competition is good, but no product should be mourned just because it adds to the number of market participants.
P.S.: Hello Rex, nice to see you back.
TheUnsunghero26
Member
I don't understand this. Why would you remove games? Spencer was still head of MS Studios then.
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
Horizon is March 2017 bookmark it
Dreams and gt sport beta available now at e3 or one is available now doubt they do both.
slavesnyder
Member
You really think TLG will sell consoles?
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
I read that as two separate statements, if not than...yea he's crazy lol
CosmicQueso
Member
TLG will be lucky to sell 100k units total in the launch month.
LordRaptor
Member
It's literally just a question of charisma.
Don Mattricks gaming credentials are substantially better than Phil Spencers, 'gamers' just decided they didn't like him.
ethomaz
Banned
That is a really good bet
The game I have no ideia how it will sell but I bet it will do over 400k NPD first month.
Edit - Collection did 92k in 4 days.
Edit 2 - SotC did 93k first month.
slavesnyder
Member
Only way I see it selling extra consoles would be a themed console in an exotic colour (sand or something).
Or even better: no theme, but exotic colour. In that case people would buy lots of extra consoles and take this game as an appendix.
Or even better: no theme, but exotic colour. In that case people would buy lots of extra consoles and take this game as an appendix.
What game Phil is responsible/not responsible for seems to be highly dependent on its Metacritic rating/reception. When QB's middling reception hit the web, people were saying that it reeks of Mattrick's ideology.
If Phil is exempt from the bad games shown under Mattrick, then he sure as hell is exempt from the good ones.
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
I give it 200k first month topsThat is a really good bet
The game I have no ideia how it will sell but I bet it will do over 400k NPD first month.
Edit - Collection did 92k in 4 days.
Edit 2 - SotC did 93k first month.
slavesnyder
Member
Under Mattrick, Phil was head of the Xbox Good Games Division.
Microsoft is very well organised.
I can see tlg easily outselling that
ethomaz
Banned
Things changed from PS2 age... games today are more front loaded due how it is easy to preorder or buy online.
The collection did 92k in 4 days in NPD... 200k for a new release in the middle of the month is a safe prediction.
I believe it will do over 400k unless it has few days in October (like 27th launch).
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
Playing it safe because October is going to get more packed the further in the year we get.
Ffxv(comes out September 30 if didn't chart again that's sad)
Mafia 3
Battlefield
Ubisoft has like 4 2016 titles one or two are bound to be October
2k is usually October right?
Than e3
It'll be a tough hill to climb
DriftingSpirit
Member
For shame!
I heard R&C has a nice digital ratio. So long as the game is a success, you can slide.
jstevenson
Sailor Stevenson
this is true.
slavesnyder
Member
Naughty dog
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
Ooo boy so we're totally getting a sequel right? And you guys are going to pitch an ape escape 4 to Sony right...I'm just saying
Primethius
Banned
What's the reasoning for TLG for not selling decently? Assuming it gets good reviews, I'd say it would probably do around 200k.
Sangetsu-II
Member
Now go make a sequel about the sequel that made it a success: Going Commando!
haha!, On a serious note, good to see the game still has a place in many people's hearts, I haven't passed the game yet but I'm enjoying my time with it <3
Good job.