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[HMD]

I think P5 will easily sell over a million and be quite the success for Atlus.

Didn't P4 sell over 1.5 million (I don't remember the number)? If so I expect P5 to sell 2-2.5 million.

 

[Son Of Sparda]

Quoting for new page.

Looking back at the discussion from previous page, I agree with Dantis that this game will be a tougher sale to western audience than Catherine.

Putting aside the whole anime debate, one of the reasons that I think helped Catherine in the west, was the fact that it focused on adults. Vincent and the whole cast were adults. The kind of problems that each character had, their worries, their relationships, those were things that a lot of us could relate to. The game might have been really weird with the whole climbing rocks as sheeps, but the actual characters and their relationships in the real world felt a lot more grounded compared to what we are seeing in P5.

I think that's part of the reason why Catherine resonated better with a western audience, and that's something that P5 lacks. It's way easier to put yourself in the shoes of a guy who is feeling trapped inside his relationship with his girlfriend than to try and understand the feelings of a teenage Japanese student that has a secret identity as a phantom thief.

Also, let's not forget that Catherine was a puzzle platformer and P5 is a turn-based JRPG. These are two very different titles, and imo, JRPGs (with anime looking art styles) in general are a tougher sale in the west than puzzle platformers.

 

[FluxWaveZ]

Didn't P4 sell over 1.5 million? If so I expect P5 to sell 2-2.5 million.

Sources for numbers would be great.

 

[HMD]

Sources for numbers would be great.

I honestly can't remember, I do remember reading something over 1 mill for P4, I phrased it as question because I can't remember the source or the exact number.

 

[FluxWaveZ]

I honestly can't remember, I do remember reading something over 1 mill for P4, I phrased it as question because I can't remember the source or the exact number.

1.5 million WW for Persona 4 sounds like on the high end; I'm not sure if the actual number was ever released. I do know Persona 4 Golden sold about 1 million WW, though.

 

[Pancake Mix]

If I like TMS#FE I'll definitely pick this up on PS4. The social simulation aspect sounds really freaking cool to me.

Expecting early-mid 2017 in NA.

 

[UmbraeCruxis]

Sources for numbers would be great.

1.5 million WW for Persona 4 sounds like on the high end; I'm not sure if the actual number was ever released. I do know Persona 4 Golden sold about 1 million WW, though.

Doing a quick look up, it looks like P4 sold about .8m, and P4G sold about 1.3m. That's relatively close to what I would expect, but I'm not sure if the site is trustworthy or not.

 

[FluxWaveZ]

Doing a quick look up, it looks like P4 sold about .8m, and P4G sold about 1.3m. That's relatively close to what I would expect, but I'm not sure if the site is trustworthy or not.

If it's Chartz, it's not.

 

[qcf x2]

What if it's getting the VR treatment?

 

[DNAbro]

Now that is a valid point.

I feel like it being on a handheld has some part in that though. I know a lot of people who abhor anime and JRPGs, but who are quite happy to dedicate tens of hours to Pokemon.



I don't. Straight up. I've shown P5 to people. Not a huge amount of people, but more than is probably expected or reasonable. Broadly speaking, the response was not positive. A lot of those same people have either played or are aware of Catherine.

It's entirely anecdotal, but I'm not writing a journalistic piece. Based on what I've seen, and what I do see in Persona 5, I don't think it will have that broad an appeal.



Most of the people I've shown it to are close friends. The type of people I see Marvel films with, if that's what you mean.

Throwing out that I've shown Persona 5 to a couple of friends who don't play JRPGs and the response was mostly positive. Most of them loved the stylishness of the trailer and the music. None of them have played Catherine.

 

[UmbraeCruxis]

If it's Chartz, it's not.

Fair enough. Wasn't sure. Never really looked in how credible it was and kind of assumed it was. Is there any site that compiles accurate sales data on these kinds of things?

 

[PillarEN]

Doing a quick look up, it looks like P4 sold about .8m, and P4G sold about 1.3m. That's relatively close to what I would expect, but I'm not sure if the site is trustworthy or not.

I can't believe P4 sold under a mil. Way late in the gen, I know, but that massive install base and all that. Well it's clear with P4G that word of mouth spread. Would love a remastered collection of 3 and 4 at some point just to allow easy access on modern consoles to both classics as I think many newcomers would like to play the games without going back a gem or two. Just love these games is all.

3 mil WW for P5 please.

 

[Mediking]

What if it's getting the VR treatment?

Hahaha. PersonaGAF has already discussed the idea of social links and VR.... I WANT IT.

 

[Squire]

.
And this is one of the reasons why I think FF15 will underperform. There's fierce competition in the open world market in the West so it's going to be held up to a very high standard. It's up against The Witcher, DA, GTA, Assassin's Creed, and more. Unless it gets top marks, it's going to be a tough hill to climb. "It's like The Witcher but you're a boy band, it's for teenagers, and it's not as good" isn't exactly a great marketing pitch.

It's out a week before Mafia 3, too. That's already disconcerting. A lot of the folks they want to hook will probably ending up waiting a week and giving that $60 to 2K.

 

[orthodoxy1095]

Catching up on the thread, and I see Dantis is going with this whole "anime" thing about Persona again.

I mean, I agree with Dantis that using superhero movies as a point of comparison is pretty much an exercise in futility. I guess you could talk about the undeniably strangeness of a movie like Guardians of the Galaxy, but otherwise I wouldn't really go down that road. And I also agree with Dantis' notion that Catherine had a unique popularity because of the themes it tackled.

But to the "anime" thing, I don't think the anime aesthetics is necessarily an instant turnoff to Western audiences. It depends on what kind of "anime" look we're getting. Are we talking more otaku-ish anime like K-On! or Oreimo? Or are we talking about something that might appeal to a more broad Western audience like a Cowboy Bebop or Akira?

Because to me, and maybe it's just my imagination running wild, the menu screen that Flux posted, and the music that I've heard so far really takes me back to visceral stylings of 80s/90s anime. And I think that has a pretty good potential at getting a larger audience.

 

[Olengie]

I thought Guardians of the Galaxy was going to be stupid. Glad I was wrong.

I felt that stuff like Black Lagoon would also appeal to the West.

 

[Pancake Mix]

This is actually one of the reasons why I think P5 will be a lot more successful than past games in the series. There's no big or even medium budget competition in the area of turn-based JRPGs these days (whereas there were plenty of turn-based RPGs on the PS2). Persona 5 has the market all to itself.

FF argument -snip-

It seems kind of pointless to argue when FF has enormous appeal and will destroy this game in sales. I think FFXV will surprise too with how well it does, but that's beside the point and partly down to how successfully it is marketed in the West.

The real issue is placing too much of an emphasis on turn-based vs. action-oriented systems. A lot of us JRPG fans will take console JRPG's either way, don't consider it a major selling point, and prefer action-oriented systems.

 

[StereoVsn]

Eh, while I think P5 will do well, let's not get crazy. It's unlikely to do 1 mil in Japan as PS4 install base is low, PS3 sales are dead and generally, look at Japanese console software sales.

IMO, it's unlikely to do 1 mil in the West also (at least not during first few months). When did a Japanese niche JRPG do that well? You are talking anime and high school kids here.

So it will do well and probably sell over 1 mil worldwide in the first say 3 months and more lifetime but expecting 3-5 mil sales is crazy talk.

 

[Panda Rin]

Eh, while I think P5 will do well, let's not get crazy. It's unlikely to do 1 mil in Japan as PS4 install base is low, PS3 sales are dead and generally, look at Japanese console software sales.

IMO, it's unlikely to do 1 mil in the West also (at least not during first few months). When did a Japanese niche JRPG do that well? You are talking anime and high school kids here.

So it will do well and probably sell over 1 mil worldwide in the first say 3 months and more lifetime but expecting 3-5 mil sales is crazy talk.

I think 2.5-3 million WW is a reasonable number. Persona 4 Golden sold over a million on Vita. Of course, these kind of games do better on handhelds, but the brand has only grown over the past few years.

 

[StereoVsn]

I think 2.5-3 million WW is a reasonable number. Persona 4 Golden sold over a million on Vita. Of course, these kind of games do better on handhelds, but the brand has only grown over the past few years.

It sold on Vita lifetime with game going down to $20 and below for a lot of those sales.

 

[SolidSnakex]

Nonetheless, CoD and GTA are giant outliers, not anywhere near representative of what most games achieve.

I guess it comes down to how we're defining "exceptionally well". If we're talking about AAA, then for me at least i'd say that's at least in the 10m+ territory. It's where quite a few heavy hitters like Mario Kart, Mario, GT, CoD, RDR, Skyrim, GTA etc. were sitting last gen.

Yeah, but a yearly franchise like CoD doesn't usually have long legs on individual entries. Those two months of holiday sales were probably the majority of its LTD. I could be wrong, but absent someone coming to correct me, I'm still skeptical that even a heavy hitter like CoD is routinely going as high as 20M. 10-12 seems more likely.

(I'm only pressing on this because I feel like people don't have a clear understanding of what qualifies a game as a hit outside the AAA space, which P5 is. I don't think Atlus would have to sell even 1M to be ecstatic about its sales, let alone 3.)

As far as CoD goes, IGN has a microsite up for it that lists the sales of each game

http://microsites.ign.com/call-of-duty-a-short-history

Starting with MW2 the series started hitting 20m.

MW2 - 22m
Black Ops - 26m
MW3 - 26m
Black Ops 2 - 24m

For P5, I wasn't saying that it needed to sell 3m. I just think that it has the potential to sell that much. Of course it needs to be of a similar quality to P3/P4, but I expect P Studio to remain as consistent as they've been in the past.

 

[Numb]

EU
Expectations set accordingly

 

[NichM]

As far as CoD goes, IGN has a microsite up for it that lists the sales of each game

http://microsites.ign.com/call-of-duty-a-short-history

Starting with MW2 the series started hitting 20m.

MW2 - 22m
Black Ops - 26m
MW3 - 26m
Black Ops 2 - 24m

Interesting, thanks for the info!

 

[Son Of Sparda]

Yeah, 3 million sales would be pretty crazy, and I don't see that happening.

It took DMC4, a game from an already popular series and within a much more popular genre, 8 years to reach the 3mil figure. And that game was on 3 different platforms.

I think at best, P5 could do around 1-1.5 million after a year and close to 2-2.5 millions in its life time.

 

[silva1991]

Yeah, 3 million sales would be pretty crazy, and I don't see that happening.

It took DMC4, a game from an already popular series and within a much more popular genre, 8 years to reach the 3mil figure. And that game was on 3 different platforms.

I think at best, P5 could do around 1-1.5 million after a year and close to 2-2.5 millions in its life time.

Damn I thought DMC was way more popular :O

 

[orthodoxy1095]

I thought Guardians of the Galaxy was going to be stupid. Glad I was wrong.

I felt that stuff like Black Lagoon would also appeal to the West.

I guess the argument you could make about the appeal of something like Black Lagoon or Bebop is the age of the characters and the themes they tackle. Dunno what that means for P5 tho.

 

[ar4757]

Eh, while I think P5 will do well, let's not get crazy. It's unlikely to do 1 mil in Japan as PS4 install base is low, PS3 sales are dead and generally, look at Japanese console software sales.

IMO, it's unlikely to do 1 mil in the West also (at least not during first few months). When did a Japanese niche JRPG do that well? You are talking anime and high school kids here.

So it will do well and probably sell over 1 mil worldwide in the first say 3 months and more lifetime but expecting 3-5 mil sales is crazy talk.

Agreed. I do believe it will sell better than P3 and P4 did in their lifetimes, but this is relative to their sales.

 

[Acorn]

EU 2018 announcement...now I'm sad.

 

[N30RYU]

There aren't many JRPGS around. So I think P5 will do really well. around 2M units sold

Acorn. the game won't be translated so there's no fucking reason to wait a single day more than the US release.
the moment it launches on the US store I'll be downloading it.

 

[SolidSnakex]

Yeah, 3 million sales would be pretty crazy, and I don't see that happening.

It took DMC4, a game from an already popular series and within a much more popular genre, 8 years to reach the 3mil figure. And that game was on 3 different platforms.

I think at best, P5 could do around 1-1.5 million after a year and close to 2-2.5 millions in its life time.

After a year P4D was at 700k shipped. That was an enhanced PS2 game that was exclusive to the Vita. I might be completely overestimating P5's potential, but I really think it's going to surprise a lot of people by how much it sells in the end.

 

[NoctisVsStar]

Stopping by to show my persona bros some love! Can't wait for the game! It's going to be a great year if we get P5,TLG with XV on top. What a time to be alive

Also P3 the goat.

 

[Son Of Sparda]

Damn I thought DMC was way more popular :O

That's the thing, though. DMC is pretty popular and 3mil figure is a very healthy one. I think with the ridiculously high amount of sales that some of the bigger western titles like CoD, GTA or recently W3 have had in the recent years, a lot us have forgotten that 2 or 3 million sales are very big and its something that not every title can achieve.

After a year P4D was at 700k shipped. That was an enhanced PS2 game that was exclusive to the Vita. I might be completely overestimating P5's potential, but I really think it's going to surprise a lot of people by how much it sells in the end.

I think you meant P4G, right? I'm gonna assume that, so correct me if I'm wrong.

The situation with that game is a little different. First and foremost, that's on a handheld device and these kind of games sale more on handhelds.

Second, a lot of people like to say that Vita doesn't have many quality titles. Now, I don't own a Vita so I'm not sure how true this statement is but, assuming that there is some truth to it, then it wouldn't be that surprising to see a quality title do exceptionally well on that platform. Since a lot of Vita owners would probably want to try the few quality titles that they get on their platform, which won't be the case with PS4 when P5 comes out.

And lastly, since I don't own a Vita I don't know how much a Vita game costs. But I'm assuming that it costs less than a standard $60 console title, correct? If so, then that's a big factor as well and something that P5 won't have.

Don't get me wrong, though. I think P5 will do very good and post some healthy sales. I just don't think it has that big of an appeal to the mass market to reach 2 or 3 million figures within few months/first year, like some of you guys are hoping for.

 

[Exentryk]

Will be my first Persona game. Mainly buying it coz it's a turn based RPG which has a decent budget and seems like a popular series. Hopefully it doesn't disappoint like the Tales series which I dropped after a few hours of Xillia.

 

[Pachael]

I see a lot of P5's success in the west would depend on the framing applied to the title as opposed to previous titles and/or other Playstation titles with 'lovable' thieves e.g Drake, Sly Cooper with a RPG twist.

Think that'd be a better selling frame than 'anime/waifu RPG' stereotype that P3/4 has had (not without good reason though)

 

[Squire]

It sold on Vita lifetime with game going down to $20 and below for a lot of those sales.

What does the sale price matter? You arguing potential for units sold or revenue generated? Because the two are pretty different.

 

[Qvoth]

1 more day~

 

[Lynx_7]

You people really believe P5 will sell on par with Bloodborne and Dark Souls (2 - 3m)? As much as I want to join this train, I'm pretty skeptical about that.
1.5m sounds like the most realistic prediction to me, which is around what Ni No Kuni did on PS3. It's still a damn high number for a game like Persona and may ensure future titles have a shot at the figures some of you are suggesting, though I think there's only so much growth a franchise like this can have in the west so I expect it to eventually settle in its niche.

 

[Deraj]

Anime is part of pop culture now, I don't see that as a problem. Besides, do we really want P5 to look more western?

 

[silva1991]

Anime is part of pop culture now, I don't see that as a problem. Besides, do we really want P5 to look more western?

This is enough to give me nightmares for weeks lol.

 

[Modest Mauser]

Anime is part of pop culture now, I don't see that as a problem. Besides, do we really want P5 to look more western?

Where is anyone saying it's a problem or they want it changed?

People are just acknowledging that the game will have its niche because of it. Which is fine.

 

[FluxWaveZ]

You people really believe P5 will sell on par with Bloodborne and Dark Souls (2 - 3m)? As much as I want to join this train, I'm pretty skeptical about that.
1.5m sounds like the most realistic prediction to me, which is around what Ni No Kuni did on PS3. It's still a damn high number for a game like Persona and may ensure future titles have a shot at the figures some of you are suggesting, though I think there's only so much growth a franchise like this can have in the west so I expect it to eventually settle in its niche.

Well, Persona 5 will definitely sell more in Japan than Bloodborne did. I think at least 2 million LTD is a safe bet.

 

[Ghost Slayer]

Anime is part of pop culture now, I don't see that as a problem. Besides, do we really want P5 to look more western?

Need more Teddie on it

 

[ChasingComets]

You people really believe P5 will sell on par with Bloodborne and Dark Souls (2 - 3m)? As much as I want to join this train, I'm pretty skeptical about that.
1.5m sounds like the most realistic prediction to me, which is around what Ni No Kuni did on PS3. It's still a damn high number for a game like Persona and may ensure future titles have a shot at the figures some of you are suggesting, though I think there's only so much growth a franchise like this can have in the west so I expect it to eventually settle in its niche.

2 million global isn't an impossibility. I think a large enough install base hungry for a powerful JRPG showing, combined with strong word of mouth (conditional to the game being decent enough) from players and the press could propel it to that number.

If anything, I feel the real test would actually come from the Japan market. We'll see some good numbers there of course, but guesstimates put sales anywhere from 400k to 800k units, which could be the tipping factor for it to reach the magical 2 mil number.

 

[kenta]

Anime is part of pop culture now, I don't see that as a problem. Besides, do we really want P5 to look more western?

I mean... Seeing Doom Guy doing this wouldn't be the WORST thing in the world...

Edit: haha didn't realize the gif had that text along the freeway. Love it

 

[Lusankya]

Looking back at the discussion from previous page, I agree with Dantis that this game will be a tougher sale to western audience than Catherine.

Putting aside the whole anime debate, one of the reasons that I think helped Catherine in the west, was the fact that it focused on adults. Vincent and the whole cast were adults. The kind of problems that each character had, their worries, their relationships, those were things that a lot of us could relate to. The game might have been really weird with the whole climbing rocks as sheeps, but the actual characters and their relationships in the real world felt a lot more grounded compared to what we are seeing in P5.

I think that's part of the reason why Catherine resonated better with a western audience, and that's something that P5 lacks. It's way easier to put yourself in the shoes of a guy who is feeling trapped inside his relationship with his girlfriend than to try and understand the feelings of a teenage Japanese student that has a secret identity as a phantom thief.

Also, let's not forget that Catherine was a puzzle platformer and P5 is a turn-based JRPG. These are two very different titles, and imo, JRPGs (with anime looking art styles) in general are a tougher sale in the west than puzzle platformers.

But didn't P4G sell much better in the West than Catherine?

 

[orthodoxy1095]

Where is anyone saying it's a problem or they want it changed?

People are just acknowledging that the game will have its niche because of it. Which is fine.

Every game outside of the tentpole AAA blockbusters has to carve a niche. The question is how much more of the niche can they reach.

 

[i-Jest]

Hopefully the PS3 version isn't gonna get cancelled. I want my cheap P5 so I can trade it in for definitive Ps4 version, assuming there are differences that make one better.

 

[rockman zx]

Anyone doing a re-stream?, is going to be a pain for non premium Nico viewers.

 

[FluxWaveZ]

Anyone doing a re-stream?, is going to be a pain for non premium Nico viewers.

I plan on making a discussion thread for the event once it's close to happening like I did for the others, but so far we've got WounLive which will presumably be restreaming it from Twitch.

 

[SolidSnakex]

I think you meant P4G, right? I'm gonna assume that, so correct me if I'm wrong.

The situation with that game is a little different. First and foremost, that's on a handheld device and these kind of games sale more on handhelds.

They do? We often times see Vita versions of Japanese games dropped when they moved to the west, or in some cases they're brought over but only digitally while the PS4 version is the one that sees a retail release. So certainly on a worldwide scale they aren't moving the type of numbers that a PS4 game will or else companies wouldn't drop them.

Second, a lot of people like to say that Vita doesn't have many quality titles. Now, I don't own a Vita so I'm not sure how true this statement is but, assuming that there is some truth to it, then it wouldn't be that surprising to see a quality title do exceptionally well on that platform. Since a lot of Vita owners would probably want to try the few quality titles that they get on their platform, which won't be the case with PS4 when P5 comes out.

I expect P5 to be helped by getting a lot of visibility. When 2016 most anticipated lists were coming out it was on several from major gaming sites. This is always big when it comes to game sales. We saw that with Dragon's Crown. Previously Vanillaware's games didn't get a lot of press coverage, but along came DC and it got quite a lot. And it went on to be their most successful game to date. Once the date is locked in and Atlus can start to talk about P5 freely to the press, I expect to be seeing and hearing a lot about it form them.

Can someone explain why people think that Persona 5 being heavily anime influenced is going to hurt it? We just saw that Fire Emblem Fates, a game that's probably more anime than Persona 5 due to the far more outlandish character designs, sold 1.84m units worldwide without even taking into account what it does in Europe. So it's strange to see people that think that it may hurt it.