AusRoachman
Member
Microsoft could easily bring back users if they dropped paid Xbox live .
Polygon: Xbox Scorpio will be a ~6 TFLOP system (v PS4K's 4.14), unveil soon, Fall 17
- Thread starter BUNTING1243
- Start date
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
Yeah I'm finding it hard to imagine how a next-gen game is going to scale between a 1.2tflop machine that uses DDR3 (!) as its main memory and one that is 5-6tflops without one version feeling distinctly last-gen.
I predicted couple years ago that the XB1 wouldn't sell more than 35-40 million worldwide and there's now no chance that is happening with this new machine coming.
//DEVIL//
Member
If you are talking about the Elite controller than fuck yes. that controller is God sent
azertydu91
Hard to Kill
Maybe brand loyallty doesn't work when a company tries to fuck every gamer on earth?
CyberPunked
Member
Yeah!! Let's continue to run on the same hardware for 7+ years!
justsomeguy
Member
Well while acknowledging this is all speculation looking ahead - the gap today is ~40% in Sony's favour, the rumoured gap on the new kit is ~50% in MS' favour.
I agree a 25% gap probably isn't enough to move the needle massively.
A 50% gap starts to look interesting.
Alx
Member
But their main reason to want users is so that they become subscribers. Xbox live has always been at the core of their business model.
amdb00mer
Member
So skimming through this thread there are so many people thinking these are "new" systems that will have their own games. That is not the case. Microsoft and Sony both require all games be compatible on the original and iterative versions. However Sony's method will cause devs extra development money if they want to take advantage of the Neo's extra power. Where Microsoft is being smarter about it and using their UWP which will help the devs scale the games with ease. I personally will be selling my X1 to get the slim model and I will save up for the X1 Scorpio next year as well. I'm going to keep my current PS4 and hold off on the NEO upgrade until I know for sure if it will have that extra VR processor built in so I don't have to have that extra box attached.
anothertech
Member
That right there is reminiscent of Mrxmedia talk my friend. They're still convinced Xbone is a 10TF machine with hidden GPU power. lol
wapplew
Member
Right? What's the point of all those flops if you can't design your game around that?
Even if the machine is 50% more powerful, than Sony will just release a new PS5 in 2019 with more power, and the cycle will continue ad nauseum. If Neo releases an ENTIRE year before Scorpio, thats 33% of a generation, and by the time the first wave of Scorpio 1st Party titles hit- there will be rumors of a new PS coming out. My point? The most important aspect isn't the power you have (IT IS IMPORTANT tho), it's how many users are on your platform.
By the time Scorpio hits the market, Xbox could be looking at an install base of roughly 60-80 million PS4 Family users with friends, digital purchases, etc.
They won't get that kind of number from the ps4k - they'll get it tangentially from the price cut that accompanies the PS4. Ps4k will be hardcore early adopters so there will be some incremental volumes compared to a traditional generation though
MilkyJoe
Member
If I remember correctly xbox 1.2 vs PS 1.8 was leaked months before they were announced.
I think that could have an astounding amount of goodwill, but its very much sacrificing its biggest source of income
Any hardware thats going to be shown at E3 is definitely finalized by now, software is more malleable though
justsomeguy
Member
It's a very valid point, I wasn't debating that - but you downplaying the power gap from 50% to 25% stuck out like a sore thumb.
And of course the Ps5 will be around the corner, so will then the xbox scorpion 2.
It's a seismic shift in the 'generational' model IMO and I agree with you that the company with the most active players is in a good spot.
Which of course makes the move to "XBox on PC" even more vital to Ms' future.
MS has several things that they have to do in order to make it successful in the gaming front against Sony. The obvious one is marketing (LOL, we'll see how that goes). They need to get majority of PC gamers on Windows 10 (which, going by Steam, is slowly but surely happening). Then they have to "force" Xbox game development to only use UWP (which, I believe is happening according to some dev on the forums a couple months back).
Convince 3rd party devs/publishers to make PC versions of their games and actually have development of the Xbox as easy as a PC configuration. If they can do that (granted it would require most AAA devs to change their game engines), that would almost solidify them getting a lot of 3rd party games that just go PS4, PC. As a publisher, why wouldn't you just add another configuration than have to develop specifically for another system. The money involved would negligible.
This also applies to indie development. Indies, for the most part are all on PS4/PC. If MS can get them to be on their system as well for a low dev cost, I can see them going there as well. It's all dependent on Microsoft convincing though.
Also, Microsoft has to make other countries outside of the US at least feel that they are cared for. MS really lost outside of the US and they need to gain traction there. MS as a whole company needs to do that though (Cortana, Bing, etc...). They've been really fucking up their chances to get market share in different tech industries because of it.
The reason why I say that MS needs to get those devs on board is because that synergy between PC and Xbox is paramount. They do need to become one ecosystem and people should be able to play against, with any device that they want. A game should just be a game and not held back by the console. A person can have a PS4 and a PC, that should be a win in MS' eyes because they can still sell that user software. They have to convince everyone to use the Windows Store, and you can only do that with great software. So having KI, QB, Sea of Thieves, Crackdown 3 (not announced), Gears 4 (not announced), ReCore, Tomb Raider, Gears:UE, and Halo Wars 2 all on PC helps the argument. But getting third parties to be on there will be even harder (especially those with stores like EA and Ubisoft).
Either way, it's going to be tough for Microsoft to convince people to use the Windows Store, and that's why you hear them always talk about MAU. It's really a way to tell developers how many people are using their system and how many people a dev can reach in a single month. They need devs to be on board. Chicken and the egg problem is the problem to solve.
Ok, i'm done.
Convince 3rd party devs/publishers to make PC versions of their games and actually have development of the Xbox as easy as a PC configuration. If they can do that (granted it would require most AAA devs to change their game engines), that would almost solidify them getting a lot of 3rd party games that just go PS4, PC. As a publisher, why wouldn't you just add another configuration than have to develop specifically for another system. The money involved would negligible.
This also applies to indie development. Indies, for the most part are all on PS4/PC. If MS can get them to be on their system as well for a low dev cost, I can see them going there as well. It's all dependent on Microsoft convincing though.
Also, Microsoft has to make other countries outside of the US at least feel that they are cared for. MS really lost outside of the US and they need to gain traction there. MS as a whole company needs to do that though (Cortana, Bing, etc...). They've been really fucking up their chances to get market share in different tech industries because of it.
The reason why I say that MS needs to get those devs on board is because that synergy between PC and Xbox is paramount. They do need to become one ecosystem and people should be able to play against, with any device that they want. A game should just be a game and not held back by the console. A person can have a PS4 and a PC, that should be a win in MS' eyes because they can still sell that user software. They have to convince everyone to use the Windows Store, and you can only do that with great software. So having KI, QB, Sea of Thieves, Crackdown 3 (not announced), Gears 4 (not announced), ReCore, Tomb Raider, Gears:UE, and Halo Wars 2 all on PC helps the argument. But getting third parties to be on there will be even harder (especially those with stores like EA and Ubisoft).
Either way, it's going to be tough for Microsoft to convince people to use the Windows Store, and that's why you hear them always talk about MAU. It's really a way to tell developers how many people are using their system and how many people a dev can reach in a single month. They need devs to be on board. Chicken and the egg problem is the problem to solve.
Ok, i'm done.
There's going to be some serious confusion in the next months with PS4, Neo, One, Slim (for both?), Streaming, Scorpio.. and then NX and whatever comes with it, lol.
One thing to me is sure though: if Microsoft believe they can win back the players with more power, they're amazingly wrong.
One thing to me is sure though: if Microsoft believe they can win back the players with more power, they're amazingly wrong.
And yes it is interesting for guys like us, who love Powaaaaaaaa! But there a metric ton of what-ifs at play here.
1. The rumor about 6 TF is a target, and Kotaku's Jschreir said he's heard Microsoft is planning to target 5-6 TF; the delta can be massive or it could be modest.
2. The pricing of Xbox Scorpio is an even bigger factor than its performance. For all we know the machine could be targeting $449/499 or $399. Even than, the moment it launches, Sony can easily drop price.
3. We have historical data what happens when you launch a machine with more powerful hardware a year later- PS2 and Xbox are a pretty good indication.
4. The existing PlayStation userbase is pretty massive, and those are the ones Microsoft are salivating over. The people who are locked into the ecosystem and paying 50 bucks a year for PS Plus, Microsoft wants them back on XBL. This will be their largest challenge, and may even be impossible.
I'm not being snarky when I say this, ^_^, I'm just point out there are extraneous factors that all take precedence over the power arguement
.
Theonik
Member
Both of them were probably working on this for a bit but MS was much further behind along the process than Sony. Also one of the main benefits of switching to off the shelf and semi-custom parts like this for both makers is that they can do exactly this. You can even see this on the major changes to the PS4 before launch as well. Both were probably contacted by AMD about the new parts at around the same time, there isn't that much lead time between that and getting a final system since AMD is simply giving them timeframes for when the new parts can go into production, then all Sony/MS has to do is co-ordinate mass producing the SKUs this whole process can be completed in a bit over a year. It's how phones can have massive production runs while running 6-12 month incremental upgrades.
About as much a new generation of console as the Neo. They shouldn't be more than 25% different if that. Don't forget the PS4 is more than 50% stronger than the Xbox One. Also what will be interesting is how MS handles forwards compatibility between the new systems. Even if this is more powerful than the Neo, with the Xbox One being the lowest common denominator that might mean that Scorpio software ends up being less impressive overall. That is also assumes developers bother with it at all with the PS4 having pushed 40m units and the Neo being available 6-12 months before this is in the market. Price will also be a huge factor here as MS is speculating on taking advantage of this to even hope to hit this performance target.
I don't expect big boosts to RAM tbh. The Neo will probably use faster GDDR5 modules now they are cheap. Don't think they will go GDDR5X though they could perhaps do it but it might break compatibility. MS is kind of in the same albeit a worse place. They are stuck with a really daft DDR3 based architecture and switching from that might require a bold approach to compatibility that might make the box less appealing both to developers and consumers alike.
Xb1 was a perfect storm. Bad positioning with emphasis on media over games; DRM fuckery; price; no BC
All of those things combined provided incentive to switch to PlayStation, and no reason to stay (no BC)
Now we have significant increases in digital ownership, plus likely long term backward compatibility and continuous friends lists/connectivity etc
So last gen actively worked to move people away from Xbox towards PlayStation, and next gen disappears and is replaced with continuous updates which encourage customers to stay with the platform they chose.
It's almost literally the worst case scenario for MS
Omnistalgic
Member
Its not about brand loyalty, its about where your peers are playing, and the fact that people arent usually buying a new console every 2 years. It could be 60+ million PS4 gamers out there by the time a new Xbox comes, thats not people attached just to the PS brand, but people in the ecosystem for various reasons.
- Friends
- Trophy Collection
- Familiarity
- Brand
- Marketing
- Worldwide appeal
- Emerging markets
Im excited for new tech, but Im not sure MS can change a whole lot in the next 2-3 years without Sony blundering somewhere or Nintendo laying another egg. Being popular in U.S is going to show itself more in the latter half of this generation. I think many are underestimating how much market share Sony has gained back and grown in other territories.
On. Fucking. Point.
Because 5TF is 25% higher than 4 TF? It depends on what numbers do you use to calculate. PS4 neo is above 4TF (not by much but still) and Scorpion is somewhere between 5 and 6. So it would go from 20% to 50% more depending on those numbres, if true of course.
edit. And also the gap in price. And time when these are released.
justsomeguy
Member
And yes it is interesting for guys like us, who love Powaaaaaaaa! But there a metric ton of what-ifs at play here.
1. The rumor about 6 TF is a target, and Kotaku's Jschreir said he's heard Microsoft is planning to target 5-6 TF; the delta can be massive or it could be modest.
2. The pricing of Xbox Scorpio is an even bigger factor than its performance. For all we know the machine could be targeting $449/499 or $399. Even than, the moment it launches, Sony can easily drop price.
3. We have historical data what happens when you launch a machine with more powerful hardware a year later- PS2 and Xbox are a pretty good indication.
4. The existing PlayStation userbase is pretty massive, and those are the ones Microsoft are salivating over. The people who are locked into the ecosystem and paying 50 bucks a year for PS Plus, Microsoft wants them back on XBL. This will be their largest challenge, and may even be impossible.
I'm not being snarky when I say this, ^_^, I'm just point out there are extraneous factors that all take precedence over the power arguement
All valid points, totally. On item 3 it looks like there's going to be ~6 month gap based on that beyond 3d rumour. "Fall 2017" for Scorpio vs Spring 2017 for Neo. I reckon that messaging is manageable, certainly WAY more so than a full year's gap.
people had hundreds of digital games on the 360 and it didn't make a difference.
having all your games in one place and a nice library of backwards compatible games are important for some but the switch from 360 to PS4 for a lot of people proves they don't care. Most people are looking for and buying new stuff.
But you couldn't play those 360 games on xb1 either, so there wasn't an alternative where you could keep those games.
Also the 350 was very old when xb1 came out so people would be more ready to move on. I think continuity of access to your digital library is more important if you're trying to sell people a new machine after 3-4 years
gollumsluvslave
Member
Regarding the brand loyalty stuff, i think people need to realise that it is not really a question of brand loyalty, it's a more a question of
'These guys are taking the piss / dropped the ball I'm looking for an alternative'
The majority Consumers will tend stick with a console brand / console as long as the platform holder doesn't fuck things up
Look at Xbox 360 - that only gained such traction because Sony fucked things up with PS3
- 599
- poor Multi-Plat perfromance
- poor exclusives (at least initially)
Then look at PS4/Xbone
Sony did everything they could to fix their mistakes with PS3, and MS did nearly everything they could to bungle the Xbone! MS fucked things up ROYALLY
MS
- TV, TV, TV!!!... oh games? oh yes those too
- Kinect as standard
- Online only nonsense
- SDRAM / DDR
- Initially bad dev support / awkward to code for (due to SDRAM)
SONY
+ GAMES, GAMES, GAMES
+ 8GB GDDR5
+ Easy to code for, hugely improved dev support
IMO, it doesn't matter what MS does with Xbox from here on out as long as Sony doesn't fuck things up!
'These guys are taking the piss / dropped the ball I'm looking for an alternative'
The majority Consumers will tend stick with a console brand / console as long as the platform holder doesn't fuck things up
Look at Xbox 360 - that only gained such traction because Sony fucked things up with PS3
- 599
- poor Multi-Plat perfromance
- poor exclusives (at least initially)
Then look at PS4/Xbone
Sony did everything they could to fix their mistakes with PS3, and MS did nearly everything they could to bungle the Xbone! MS fucked things up ROYALLY
MS
- TV, TV, TV!!!... oh games? oh yes those too
- Kinect as standard
- Online only nonsense
- SDRAM / DDR
- Initially bad dev support / awkward to code for (due to SDRAM)
SONY
+ GAMES, GAMES, GAMES
+ 8GB GDDR5
+ Easy to code for, hugely improved dev support
IMO, it doesn't matter what MS does with Xbox from here on out as long as Sony doesn't fuck things up!
I mean it's all rumors right ^_^, there's GAF insiders who claim it'll launch at the end of this year. Reality is- Sony can totally fuck up and downclock the machine or they could go into hyper drive and raise clock rates and add CUs. Until these machines are officially announced they are nothing more than a vague idea on sheets of paper.
MisterXDTV
Member
Because that was a GENERATION change after 7 years, a complete reboot of the market.
Now that business model is gone. Bye bye generations, welcome "upgrades"
oldergamer
Member
Everyone here needs to stop talking in T-Flops. It's not what matters. T-Flops doesn't tell you:
a. What type of bandwidth the components have between each other & memory
b. What clock speed individual components run at
c. What feature individual components have
d. Where the bottlenecks are
If everyone remembers, Xbox 360 launched before PS3, and had lower T-Flop numbers compared to PS3. Despite that Xbox had a a much more powerful GPU that was capable of doing a lot more then many thought.
Another factor is how many games specifically for PS4k hardware are we going to see in that time frame ( between now and end of next year). Answer: I expect none, since everyone still needs to support the lowest common denominator. It's going to be years, 2 - 3 or more years) before Sony will allow developers to not require support for the PS4 original and it's 40 million users.
a. What type of bandwidth the components have between each other & memory
b. What clock speed individual components run at
c. What feature individual components have
d. Where the bottlenecks are
If everyone remembers, Xbox 360 launched before PS3, and had lower T-Flop numbers compared to PS3. Despite that Xbox had a a much more powerful GPU that was capable of doing a lot more then many thought.
Another factor is how many games specifically for PS4k hardware are we going to see in that time frame ( between now and end of next year). Answer: I expect none, since everyone still needs to support the lowest common denominator. It's going to be years, 2 - 3 or more years) before Sony will allow developers to not require support for the PS4 original and it's 40 million users.
Maybe. It's probably more important given the shorter time between consoles but I just think if Sony dropped another PS3 style clanger on the market I don't think people would flock to it just because they own a few digital games. Xbox 360 users didn't with the Xbox One.
Brand Loyalty isn't easily lost, it was literally burned into flames when Microsoft priced their machines 100 dollars more, had weaker hardware, AND were on the wrong side of the fence on nearly every major PR move when both machines launched within a WEEK of each other. Sony did the exact same thing with the PS3. Outside of any MAJOR fuck-ups, no one will ditch their existing platform because an "upgrade" will just be around the corner and will play your games at a better fidelity and will keep you locked into your existing ecosystem.
SplitYourInfinities
Member
Cannot wait to see how this unfolds. We are truly living in an incredible time for the video game aficionado.
THE:MILKMAN
Member
Don't know if OsirisBlack has read this thread yet but am wondering if Microsoft have briefed retail for the rumoured Xbox slim August launch?
MatrixMan.EXE
Member
Actually, for a long time the rumours suggested that the nextbox would destroy PS4 in raw power. Then it ended up not being true. You can never really tell until thing are official.
SplitYourInfinities
Member
Buy a PC if you want to have upgrades every 2-3 years.
I dont give a crap whats under the hood if I am getting results like Uncharted 4 or Quantum Break.
Those new consoles are going to be -in large part- wasted potential, since games will be created with PS4/XB1 in mind.
Sorry, but the majority of users are going to stick with their consoles that they already have. You won't see many "jumping ship". Because things are continuous, people can buy whatever console they want at "anytime" or get/build a gaming PC. I think a lot of this argument goes with the console wars and people are forgetting that MS is trying to get PC games to be Xbox games. The console numbers won't matter as much as it used to matter. Yes, for console gamers only, yea, it would matter. But as a dev, you have to look at the bigger picture and the biggest reach. If you want a multiplatform game, and you want the best bang for your buck, you would make a UWA and a PS4 game. It has the most reach. The warz dymanics is going to change dramatically.
Your right. And actually the biggest rumors we had suggested PS4 only had 4 GB of RAM while Xbox One had 8 GB of RAM. Alot changed when we officially got word. PS4 got 8 GB of GDDR5 and MS raised clocks on both GPU and CPU. So things can change.
Dirtyshubb
Member
The only way that I could possibly see this working for Microsoft is if they promote the Scorpio as a true sequel console and hammer home this idea in comparison to the PS4/4K. If you can convince the market that 'while our competitors are stuck in the past, we are looking to the future' you could possibly convince the market to switch over but thats a hell of a lot easier said than done.
While history has shown loyalty isn't the biggest factor in the console space it is still an issue, because of Sony's brand advantage they managed to ride out the 'disastrous' PS3 launch to actually sell faster than the 360 and come joint second overall. This is mainly down to a global audience that they have cultivated and Microsoft doesnt have this luxury.
They are also going to have a hard time convincing people to switch over because, I assume, Sony are going to be pimping the idea of a 4K games console with the PS4K for up to a year before Microsoft come out with their own 4K console. While the Scorpio might be able to achieve 4k for bigger games than the PS4k can, this message will not only already be synonymous with PlayStation but it will also be hard to show the difference to audiences since showing what 4K is actually like is impossible without a 4K TV. The only people who might be convinced to go Scorpio for the 4K nature would most likely already have the PS4K and be invested in that eco system.
I honestly can't see most people who buy a console for gaming going back to Microsoft if they aren't currently invested in their ecosystem already. We have seen that MS not only have a tough time creating new IP's that take the world by storm (other than Halo, Gears and forza which has lost relevancy in recent years) and I also can't see them getting big exclusives since we have seen how badly that has worked out for 3rd party publishers this generation so what exactly is going to convince people to switch over?
While history has shown loyalty isn't the biggest factor in the console space it is still an issue, because of Sony's brand advantage they managed to ride out the 'disastrous' PS3 launch to actually sell faster than the 360 and come joint second overall. This is mainly down to a global audience that they have cultivated and Microsoft doesnt have this luxury.
They are also going to have a hard time convincing people to switch over because, I assume, Sony are going to be pimping the idea of a 4K games console with the PS4K for up to a year before Microsoft come out with their own 4K console. While the Scorpio might be able to achieve 4k for bigger games than the PS4k can, this message will not only already be synonymous with PlayStation but it will also be hard to show the difference to audiences since showing what 4K is actually like is impossible without a 4K TV. The only people who might be convinced to go Scorpio for the 4K nature would most likely already have the PS4K and be invested in that eco system.
I honestly can't see most people who buy a console for gaming going back to Microsoft if they aren't currently invested in their ecosystem already. We have seen that MS not only have a tough time creating new IP's that take the world by storm (other than Halo, Gears and forza which has lost relevancy in recent years) and I also can't see them getting big exclusives since we have seen how badly that has worked out for 3rd party publishers this generation so what exactly is going to convince people to switch over?
justsomeguy
Member
I reckon the xbone launch will feature in mba courses for the next 20 years.
Xbox took a severe beating from RROD as well. I know several casuals who didnt want to invest in xbox one because of that very reason.
I think that "If fails" and "Europe" can't go together in the same sentence,
it would be worth it for that alone honestly
The force has come in strong as day has broke for EuroGaf.
Maintenance
Member
Cool that we're back to "power matters", after years of people saying "hey I'm buying this console because of my friends and the controller" in DF threads.