KampferZeon
Neo Member
Obviously my calculation is based on xbox remaining on AMD using the APU coherent memory approach.
Polaris 10 / 1070 is a discrete GPU, it makes total sense discrete GPU is 1 gen ahead of APU.
Polygon: Xbox Scorpio will be a ~6 TFLOP system (v PS4K's 4.14), unveil soon, Fall 17
- Thread starter BUNTING1243
- Start date
Obviously my calculation is based on xbox remaining on AMD using the APU coherent memory approach.
Polaris 10 / 1070 is a discrete GPU, it makes total sense discrete GPU is 1 gen ahead of APU.
Yeah well nobody could have possibly imagined Microsoft bungling a product launch in such a spectacular fashion. Just a complete misfire.
It's fucking mad to read that thread. Everyone thought Sony was going to be out of this business for sure and at this point it's the other way around.
I think they will call it Xbox 4 (fourth generation xbox). Then it will be iterative from there.
I think at this E3 or next they will announce that multiplayer will be free and the sub will be GWG and DWG.
Phil spencer has repeatedly said he doesn't like the idea of an Xbox 1.5 so I feel like this will be marketed as a new console. Back in the day 4 years was the norm for a console cycle. I think the Neo is coming out too soon and it's going to put them in an interesting position as it really is a ps4.5 and Xbox seems to be going for the jugular a year later. Either way E3 will be fascinating this year
amstradcpc
Member
Yeah, but SOC like APU would allow to use discrete GPU and in fact the last one in this graphic is what i think MS will use:
KampferZeon
Neo Member
Increase die size ===== increase power draw
I have already abandoned the esram ( 3.3x gain = i used the theoretical ps4 jump from 1.8 to 6 )
Increase power draw poses other additional challenge to engineering,
Heat dissipation
Liquid cooled
Big Noise ( huge big fans )
Everything i listed will push up the cost dramatically
RedSparrows
Member
BigTnaples
Todd Howard's Secret GAF Account
I am more than happy with it, just as I am with my PS4. The games look and play fine and I am not ready for more power already because I don't need it yet. I just want some great games for these systems that are still pretty damn new to me.
All of this:
is just a pissing contest. Give me games for what I already bought and then I'll be ready for more power in a few years.
I thought HBM was really expensive, that's why new graphics cards were using micron gddr5x.
KampferZeon
Neo Member
And loses the coherent memory thing which makes console so efficient.
I ve said it before. Why not just install a win 10 copy on the next alienware tower and be done with it.
Might as well since MS is singing the games as a service tune
...coz you're a sane person. I'm not a tech-expert and I'm looking at this with a healthy amount scepticism, too. Us getting 1000$+ top of the line PC hardware in a small 600$ box is not going to happen. In 2017 PC hardware will still be miles ahead. The gap might close a little.
Like I've said before, a GTX970/980 equivalent is doable, BUT not @400$. What about the CPU and memory? If better, this will make the price go up. I expect 499$ or 599$ (if it's really 6TF+ beefier CPU) with low margins, maybe loss for MS.
Who do you think a higher spec console that plays the same games is trying to appeal to? The Neo and Scorpio are most definitely a product for enthusiasts, especially at launch. The people who are not enthusiasts don't care for much graphical/performance differences, and will just pickup a base ps4 or xbox one due to them being much cheaper after the inevitable price cuts and them playing the same games.
The case for a more powerful Xbox One is honestly really weak right now the way I see it simply due to MS bringing all (or most) of their games to PC as much of their target audience could be considering pc gaming, or already is.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Skimmed that bullshit thread, did ya?
BigTnaples
Todd Howard's Secret GAF Account
I am more than happy with it, just as I am with my PS4. The games look and play fine and I am not ready for more power already because I don't need it yet. I just want some great games for these systems that are still pretty damn new to me.
All of this:
is just a pissing contest. Give me games for what I already bought and then I'll be ready for more power in a few years.
What?
No.
I am a day one edition XBO owner and the thing has been underpowered from the get go.
I'm tired of having to settle for 720/900p, terrible Performence, low Framerate animations mixed with horrific LoD/Shadows etc.
Gears, Halo, Forza, should all be mind blowing properties. So should have Titanfall been.
But they are not, and there is one reason. Bring on the power.
MilkyJoe
Member
Must have missed that thread... What's your take then?
amstradcpc
Member
You dont lose the coherency, cpu+gpu+memory are connected by an interposer, is 2.5D silicon. But you fab cpu and gpu independtly and get better yields (and more efficient heat dissipation) that going one-chip APU.
Obscuritas
Member
This was already debunked today by multiple sources on this very forum.
...Scatter...
Banned
I am more than happy with it, just as I am with my PS4. The games look and play fine and I am not ready for more power already because I don't need it yet. I just want some great games for these systems that are still pretty damn new to me.
All of this:
is just a pissing contest. Give me games for what I already bought and then I'll be ready for more power in a few years.
Yeah until you see games running on God mode on the new consoles. You'll def want in. Plus it's a year and a half away.
wonderful103
Member
Everyone is singing the games as a service tune, in case you were selectively ignoring the others to try and make a point that ms couldn't possibly want to top the Neo because reasons. Reasons like cooling will be more expensive. Lol
499 is probably the aim. Similar to how 399 is the probable aim of the Neo. Return to launch prices. And the hardcore console-only gamers will probably pay them
That's great, then go buy another system. As for me? I have not even owned Xbox One or PS4 for two years yet and am more than happy with what they can do. I don't need all of this extra juice right now, just games.
Nooooooo, Zedox stop!!!!
We're just about to enter an era of madness and insanity and you're suggesting that MS should irritate consumers a little more.
perfect
gundamkyoukai
Member
There also a reason why both MS and Sony did not go with such numbers this gen.
If they get 6 tflops i really going wonder about the price of this thing .
Yea I think both Microsoft and Sony realized they need more power in order to run VR properly. If the oculus rift can work well with the Xbox Scorpio, that will be HUGE. I really want to get VR but it's expensive and my computer would need massive upgrades. By the time the Scorpio comes out the oculus will be hitting its stride and will be a perfect time to introduce it to the casual fanbase.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
My take is that they have been demoing VR for almost a year now, on PS4's that have 40+ million out there, and the games have ran and looked great.
While this will help, it is not to 'save face for PSVR'. It is more so to keep people in an ecosystem, and offer more power at the same price points, with behind the scene cost saving on newer chips as old fabs are phased out.
Don't you own a PC?
jimbobsmells
Member
Waited so long for a XB1 Slim, now gonna have to wait for a Scorpio machine.
LOL, not happening. I am not buying new hardware already, man. But have fun to those that are.
Leyasu
Banned
The bone is my only system and I knew what I was getting. But fuck me it is a dud and needs to be buried sooner rather than later imo.
Im a dunce and I got no idea if youre hinting at something with the quotation marks
You don't need to read Gaf for this - prevailing majority opinions in 2012 everywhere were predicting Sony to trail the coming generation (or even suggesting industry exit). It was the sentiment commonly found with gaming press as well, and publisher confidence - while quite low overall in regards to console future - was also favoring Microsoft over anyone else at the time.D4Danger said:
Yeah I wonder what Microsift is going to do with Xbox Live. PC gamers rejected paying for it the first time when Microsoft tried with GfWL, and with Steam more popular then ever there's still no way PC gamers will ever pay for Live. If Microsoft lets PC gamers play online for free it's going to piss off console owners and gets harder and harder to justify, but they make so much money on Live there's no way the Microsoft execs are going to let them stop charging for it. It does feel like they're stuck between a rock and a hard place with Xbox Live.
SneakersSO
Member
You're massively downplaying or underestimating the impact of early adopters and word-of-mouth here IMO. The Nielsen report last year showed the #1 reason for people buying a PS4 was superior resolution (albeit it wasn't clear if that was their reason for picking PS4 over XBox One, or just in absolute terms why they switched gen, or both).
Agreed re. WW appeal - we just differ on what impact being "second most powerful, and the most expensive" at launch had. So you think MS just need to drop the XBox One price and let the Neo go off into the distance? That seems unlikely to succeed, to me. Again I think you're downplaying the impact of power and word of mouth.
Look at the reaction Star Fox got recently (at least from me) - terrible graphics by today's standards. Xbox One would very quickly become the "terrible graphics" box compared to Neo. I'm not sure there's a market for a $150 box to play 900p games at 25 fps in a market where Neo doing 1080p/60. Even if the price is $150 vs. $300 or whatever it ends up being.
You said new hardware doesn't matter and a price cut/games was more important. So if MS just drop the price on the xbox one again with the slim, then Sony doesn't get the 12 months' free reign, by your logic.
Letting gamers know that there is a box 50% more powerful than Neo coming, albeit a way out, may just influence those early adopters/"power" console gamers to hold fire and wait for MS' offering, and it will certainly weaken Sony's messaging around the PS4k, both of which are totally valid business strategies.
edit: According to that B3D post, no NEO this year means ~6 months of gap. Manageable IMO.
Your point about the size of the digital library and investment in the platform is exceptionally well made. It's a huge, huge hurdle for the second-place player. However.. you think MS should just give up and go home? Or their only answer is to keep reducing the Xbox One price until it's given away free with breakfast cereal? Or should they wait until Sony launch the PS5 and then launch their new console?
So let's talk about this strategy where in you tell the market a stronger box is coming, albeit a year out. Know who pulled this move? Sony did, back in 2005 going into 2006. By the time the PS3 finally did come out, the 360 had over a 5 million unit lead, which hit 10 million once Gears came out in holiday 2006. And the PS3 was coming off of the PS2, the most popular game console of all time, and still couldn't make up for a year head start. Yes, there were other factors that contributed to the PS3's slow start (price & market perception, primarily). MS also tried this move when both MS & Nintendo launched the far stronger consoles of the OG Xbox & Gamecube a year later and neither of them held a candle against the PS2's sales dominance.
Thats what i'm arguing here, particularly the market perception bit. I've said this before, but the sales difference being 2:1 WW, and the sales difference not matching that when we look at the NA region & UK is a huge indicator that MS' market problems begin and end in all the areas that aren't NA & UK. That is where MS needs to be making serious attempts at trying to change the market reception towards their brand. I remember Pachter breaking down the numbers & basically saying that if a Sony machine & an MS machine were to launch WW, the Sony machine would & should always have the higher numbers specifically because their WW market reception is better, and that seems like a huge disadvantage that MS just never makes any attempts at course correcting on.
And no, I don't think MS should give up & go home. In fact, in all of yesterday's news, the two bigger bits that no one is really discussing, to me anyway, is that MS is pursuing a solid relationship with Oculus (which is why I think this power jump is happening; native Oculus support) and that all X1 exclusives would now release on W10. I think they are going to continue to push Xbox in a multitude of hardware initiatives (we're rumored to be getting 2 streaming devices & an X1 slim this year alone), while also attempting to push the Xbox brand as a PC gaming brand, which is a far bigger move for the department & all of MS than Scorpio.
As for the argument behind power - we have seen a multitude of times that power just is not a factor when determining console sales. Users may think they care, and the resolution bit at the beginning of this generation was probably the closest we've ever gotten to this being true, but it seems like the $100 price difference was an even bigger factor. Resolution difference still occurs, along with other performance differences between the two, but its not stopping people from buy X1 games en masse in the territories it does well in.
BigTnaples
Todd Howard's Secret GAF Account
Yeah, but I can't play Halo on it.
Also had to play Quantum Break on it because of the terrible port.
And I have friends who own XBOs that I would like to be able to play multiplayer games with without feeling I am giving myself the shaft by playing on the lowest common denominator machine.
Obscuritas
Member
Ricky Ricardo
Member
From its announcement, XB1 was spent. And as much as I love Halo 5, I'd buy a solid PC version of it over the current XB1 version in a heartbeat. Imagining 343 trying to build their vision of Halo 6 on XB1 ... does me a frighten.
In the case of this so called "Scorpio" the leap is solid enough to guarantee significant changes for games going forward on Xbox.
If they want to get a GPU that size in, they are going to have to skimp on basically everything else most likely. HBM2 aint viable at that power draw, and CPU wise, who knows how Zen will shake out.
If we consider 200w the maximum limit, that's going to really seal the deal unless they want to end up with heating issues and other problems.
TLDR, expecting a full generational leap is nonsense, they are going to go for smaller jumps more often. That is what they stated
If we consider 200w the maximum limit, that's going to really seal the deal unless they want to end up with heating issues and other problems.
TLDR, expecting a full generational leap is nonsense, they are going to go for smaller jumps more often. That is what they stated
MilkyJoe
Member
Are we talking from this thread?
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1224049
Didn't that guy that buys all the tech, not so long ago say he wasn't blown away with ther Sony experience?
and in that thread the first quote is
I can't see Microsoft going beyond 500$ either way. The sales boost of being able to market the power advantage is not worth pricing yourself out of the average consumer pricerange.
Especially when VR by all means is on rather uncertain grounds at this point on whether it'll catch on big or not. Going all out just to say you support one of the headsets won't be worth it when it turns out to just become a very niche market focused on bleeding-edge PC hardware/software.
Actually, you may be right.
You are overestimating the cost of these components pretty drastically, and forgetting that this rumor says the console won't be out for 15+ months.
A 290x had 5.6TF nearly three years ago. A die-shrunk, more power efficient version of a 4 year old (when this comes out) card is not unreasonable for a console.
yeah I think we got our wires crossed because the original post I replied to mentioned the consoles by name and I just remember the xbox one being a disaster from the start. I see now that he meant more generally that people expected the next xbox to be the leader (which before they were announced isn't too hard to believe. the 360 was good)
Bits N Pieces
Member
Seeing as you seem to be in the know, what will the Neo and Scorpio actually consist of then?
thehillissilent
Member
I think MS will have Live Gold for PC be GWG and DWG only. That is the only way they are going to get PC gamers to pay for it. Paying for Online will piss them off something fierce.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Why don't you do yourself a favor and read all the other developers calling it bullshit in that thread. But clinging to a narrative, does not make it true.
I am speculating like hundreds in here are doing as well.
Using pricing, roadmaps, fab setups, etc., to draw more realistic views, rather than, "Surface will handle it'... when nothing that has ever come out of the Surface team, especially the designer they are using, has been close to mainstream console pricing.
BigTnaples
Todd Howard's Secret GAF Account
I have one.
Define near? Because until MS gets the whole PC situation turned around, Xbox is still the best place to play its exclusives.
Trust me, I would much rather play the on my gaming rig at 4K than on my XBO at 720, but the PC versions are such clusterfucks right now, it isn't worth it.