SlipperyFishes
Banned
Not that I care but what size is your shed?
Polygon: Xbox Scorpio will be a ~6 TFLOP system (v PS4K's 4.14), unveil soon, Fall 17
- Thread starter BUNTING1243
- Start date
But ps5k?!
oldergamer
Member
My mistake, consider my comment not targeted at you.
It doesn't work like that. it never has. No hardware is designed to have bottle necks ( that's not what I'm saying). They would also not remove unusable extra performance, instead they would present the hardware with "real world" numbers and not theoretical.
All computing hardware has bottlenecks. All that can be done is to try and minimize them. Look at it this way, it's nearly impossible to get peak to the spec performance out of any hardware. TFLOPS is just an addition of paper specs. In theory that is what the hardware can achieve, but in a real world scenario where you have different components competing for cycles and doing different things at the same time, you won't ever reach.
Bandwidth between components & memory has always been a bottleneck to performance in many different ways. There's other things that can cause stalls and components to wait, but when ti comes to pushing graphics, its something that will always be there.
Depends what's in it before I take the bet.
dano1
A Sheep
What you don't think there will be a PlayStation 5 that will smoke the new XBox.
Neo comes out this year ( most likely) Scorpio a year later. Microsoft is in a bad spot right now.
dano1
A Sheep
Well it was 10 by 8 but it just got crushed by a tree 2 nights ago. That's why I offered it up
Obscuritas
Member
What's gonna probably happen is that Xbox One is going to lose more marketshare even with the Slim model out, and Sony will bank on their increasing userbase even without Neo's numbers.
We are all acting as if the PS4/X1 will magically disappear after the Neo/Scorpio release. Well, they won't. They'll be still there, they'll be cheaper, they'll play the same games and they'll still be the top selling consoles for the mass market.
jimbobsmells
Member
Assuming things play out like the rumour suggests then MS will bookend the console power spectrum, with Sony in the middle. I wouldn't want to be an XB1 owner in that scenario TBH.
I think it's very likely that within a year of their respective releases you won't be able to find the lower-end models unless the higher end models are $500/$600 as starters. The lower end units may be able to play all games right now, but over time, it's going to lead to poor performance on them and then eventually games won't be compatible, forcing people to upgrade.
get2sammyb
Member
Yeah, I think he'll be worried if those "MAU" overlap with the kind of "MAU" he wants PlayStation to attract. If, however, those "MAU" are people playing Minesweeper in the office during their lunch break, I think he'll be considerably less worried.
Outrun
Member
You are correct. It is all conjecture at the moment. A rumored Sony console is being benchmarked against a rumored MS machine.
The thing I don't get, if this rumor is true, is what MS plans to do with the XB1 going forward. Sony's strategy involves selling a beefed up PS4 that is powerful enough to make a difference but no so much that it completely leaves their current console in the dust.
If the new Xbox is as powerful as they are saying, there's no way there can be one sku for both. It's essentially a new console generation for them, which means they are saying goodbye to the XB1. If this is the case, why would anyone follow them or support them after cutting their current gen cycle to 3 years? Seems like they are looking for a do-over. If I was invested in the XB1 I would be really pissed off at this.
If the new Xbox is as powerful as they are saying, there's no way there can be one sku for both. It's essentially a new console generation for them, which means they are saying goodbye to the XB1. If this is the case, why would anyone follow them or support them after cutting their current gen cycle to 3 years? Seems like they are looking for a do-over. If I was invested in the XB1 I would be really pissed off at this.
Outrun
Member
But what about the MS machine that will come out after the PS5? Sony is in a bad spot right now
/s
E3 threads are clearly going to be quite something if this thread is anything to go by.
Conjecture's one thing but this amount of discussion on how things are going to play out based on essentially thin air is quite something.
Outrun
Member
Unless you offer a sweet trade in subsidy...
dano1
A Sheep
Got me there...
nelsonroyale
Member
You think this is likely? Very, very unlikely with PS4. I think the original will likely outsell the Neo for a long time. The Xbone? Unlikely as well, I think you will find if it releases on the current time scale it won't be cheap, and I think it is too soon for many to upgrade.
Yeah, I'm still getting some "who pulls first" impressions from all of this:
Recently in Sony Snake Mountain....
[Shu exhausted, running up the stairs to King Kaz's throne room]
Shu: Master Kaz, have you heard the news? Nintendo is going to release a new console in 2016 or 2017. Rumour says it could be more powerful than our beloved PS4.
Kaz: Whhhaaaatttt??!?!?!?! No one is going to take mah powahh away from me!!!!!Nintenwho? Nevermind...wait...[takes a piece of paper and scribbles something onto it] Here, take this to our shadow-R&D-ninjas and tell them to wait for further instructions.
Shu: Yes master, I will do as you wish.
Month later
[Shu exhausted, running up the stairs to King Kaz's throne room, with sweat stains on his shirt]
Shu: Master Kaz, have you heard the news? That handsome guy from Microsoft has talked about upgrading XboxOne in an interview....
Kaz: Whaaaaatttt???? How dare you?!?!?! I want you to commit Seppuku right now in front of my eyes!!! But first, acitvate our shadow-R&D-ninjas. Everyone man the battlestations!!!!
Month later
[Shu exhausted, running up the stairs to King Kaz's throne room, with heavy sweat stains on his shirt and on his buttocks]
Shu: Master Kaz, Master Kaz...
Kaz: What is it you coward? I'm busy watching cat videos on Youtube...
Shu: They've done it...
Kaz: Who is they and what have they done?
Shu: Kotaku is spreading rumours about the specs of a possible XboxOne successor and...and...
Kaz: Speak, you bloody bastard!!!!
Shu: It's much more powerful than NEO
[Kaz slaps Shu in the face]
Kaz: Never mention that name again, hear me?
Shu: So what are we going to do?
Kaz: Who besides those idiots on GAF knows about NEO?
Shu: I guess it is still treated as an rumour in public
Kaz: Good, gooood, really good. they took the bait. Activate plan Trinity!!!!
Meanwhile at MS Castle Greyskull
[Phil Spencer sitting in front of his 30 screen Internet surveillance room]
Phil: Good, goood, really good. They took the bait. They may counter this but they will
never anticipate project Capricorn.
Meanwhile at Nintendo Fright Zone
Tatsumi: zzzzzzZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Shigeru: Master? Master?
Tasumi: What? What do you want? What year is this?
Shigeru: 2016
Tasumi: ah ok..zzzzzZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzz
get2sammyb
Member
They could try it, but even if not everyone takes them up on it, eating $50 on 10 million machines is a serious chunk of change.
Please don't reply with the war chest nonsense.
Obscuritas
Member
We are not the mass market
And that's kinda shitty. I don't think that the console business will ever replicate the Smartphone business model. I tend to ignore all the console - smart device comparisons, they sounds too silly given how distant these products are.
That's no different than people who buy a system for a couple games or just exclusives. It doesn't matter as you ad the competition font know what they are playing on a monthly basis. Its all out perception. Perception on how many people are using your service. When Sony says we sold this many PS4s is it saying how many are actively using it? No, but it's telling developers and people this id how many people you can reach. MAU does the same thing but tries to say these are how many people are using their service. Does it say how many people are doing more than just checking a message or not? Nope. Both are trying to do the same thing. What MAU is, is like counting the amount of people coming into a retail store. Lol. MS tries to say how many hours are used in games to show how engaged people are. It's all marketing but with some truth to it. It's how services are perceived as successful.
I'm not for or against any company that says how they are successful. I'm just explaining.
Backfoggen
Banned
This thread is done
If I was MS, this is what I would do. Specifically at the MS Stores, I would offer at least $100 off a Scorpio with a trade in of either an XB1, PS4, or PS Neo. They could go up to $200 if they really wanted to incentivise folks.
So I think this will happen, no. Could it happen, sure. Would it be smart, absolutely.
Maybe I'm being naive but couldn't games just end up being scaled similar to PC graphical settings? It will be the same/similar PC-like architecture on all the platforms so maybe something like:
X1: low
PS4: med
Neo: high
Scorpio: max
Plus, as we get further out from the original PS4/X1 launch and the games become even more demanding with more focus on the newer hardware, devs could lower the resolution on more games on the old hardware (720p/900p becoming more the norm) and/or make them only 30fps.
MilkyJoe
Member
if this console generation never technically ends and all this is iterations( every 3 years). I think consumers will become more and more invested into their chosen ecosystems so people are less likely to switch brands. Now that digital game and plus/gwg make up a more significant part of the market.
Also I don't think people really care about power they care about price.and the PlayStation will have a full year to lower production costs and may have a price cut around the same time as the launch of the new Xbox Scorpio.
get2sammyb
Member
... I'm not even sure what we're discussing anymore to be honest with you, man! XD
This is a great post and it's spot on.
It's all about the ecosystem and the Xbox and Playstation are just one way to get into that. And Microsoft is unifying everything in a really interesting way that Sony isn't. Mainly because their only good Playstation device is the PS4.
If the Xbox can be competitive in the PC space and place the Xbox as a good entry level Windows 10 machine then they make the Xbox ecosystem way more competitive than it was when the X1 released without having to sell more boxes than Sony.
Personally I like this "battle of services" better than a battle of boxes. Have most games be cross-platform and just compete with offering a better ecosystem to play them on.
So MS absorbs the cost of the upgrade (or at least some)? Great, but if I'm a shareholder, this doesn't make me happy one bit. At some point, money needs to be made, or the console business is going to be dropped, and "Xbox" will just be a catch phrase used in Windows gaming.
Outrun
Member
Spending their way out of a stupid past decision is not past MS.
If MS sees the future as games as service, then a subsidy may be plausible to usher in the new era.
Or not, who knows ?
The PC is an open landscape of competing platforms. You're not locked into anything there.
At least, as long as they don't start locking down windows, as they were suspected of trying to do previously...
Outrun
Member
You tell the shareholders that this hit will yield a greater future return in terms of subscriptions. CEOs do this all the time.
Whether the Board believes them is another matter.
I think the only way Microsoft are going to make this work is if this new Xbox One Slim model comes in incredibly cheaply. They really need to get more people on board the Xbox ecosystem. It seems unlikely Scorpio games will need to work on the XB1 given the performance difference, but surely Scorpio will be backwards compatible with everything on the XB1. The only way they can tempt people to the Scorpio will be with incredible AAA exclusives (I'm sorry MS but Sony has you beat here) and with a healthy user base of XB1 owners wanting to trade up.
Everyone else will likely be content with their Neo or even base PS4 until Sony brings us the Scorpio beating PS5. VR might play into this and Microsoft can only hope they can bring around a cheap enough Rift headset for the Scorpio. I'm predicting PSVR2 will be a very vital aspect of the PS5 and build upon Sony's experience with PSVR, which seems very capable and yet much cheaper than the competition.
Scorpio will appeal to very early adopters but at the same time many of those people will likely have gaming PC's in which case they no longer need an Xbox to play Xbox games by that point, and that definitely muddies the waters.
Or in other words, I have no fracking idea (but I predict Sony have a strong hand going forward and Microsoft are going to have an epic uphill struggle to really challenge them in any meaningful way).
Everyone else will likely be content with their Neo or even base PS4 until Sony brings us the Scorpio beating PS5. VR might play into this and Microsoft can only hope they can bring around a cheap enough Rift headset for the Scorpio. I'm predicting PSVR2 will be a very vital aspect of the PS5 and build upon Sony's experience with PSVR, which seems very capable and yet much cheaper than the competition.
Scorpio will appeal to very early adopters but at the same time many of those people will likely have gaming PC's in which case they no longer need an Xbox to play Xbox games by that point, and that definitely muddies the waters.
Or in other words, I have no fracking idea (but I predict Sony have a strong hand going forward and Microsoft are going to have an epic uphill struggle to really challenge them in any meaningful way).
get2sammyb
Member
A "trade-up" offer would be designed to convert people who are already invested into the Xbox ecosystem, however. It wouldn't entice people who currently don't own an Xbox One.
wapplew
Member
Again, I think people give too much credit to this Eco system/service thing.
I have yet to see any example one successful Eco system can translate into multiple devices with different form factor or input.
PS4 success didn't help PS vita with some share digital library, Windows PC success didn't help Windows phone, Andriod success didn't help all those Andriod micro console and Apple didn't even try unify their OS with their huge iOS success.
Banderdash
Member
I'm not great with hardware...
Is this just upgrading the CPU?
What about the RAM? isn't that what's holding the xbox back? I thought it had something to do with them using a slower kind of RAM than the PS4...
How much RAM does it need to get up to 6 terraflops?
Is this just upgrading the CPU?
What about the RAM? isn't that what's holding the xbox back? I thought it had something to do with them using a slower kind of RAM than the PS4...
How much RAM does it need to get up to 6 terraflops?
I don't think Microsoft shareholders are too willing to take a hit on anything. And I think Nokia was just the first step in phasing out dead weight in Microsoft. I have a funny feeling you're going to see surface getting cut soon.
Luckily the Xbox brand is still really strong. But I think the xbox is a stronger platform that it is hardware solution
The easiest way for Microsoft to get more people onto the Xbox platform is via the PC, and I think they know this. Hence the move to get serious about their PC platform, to bring Xbox content to PC etc. There is a market of gamers there that don't need to buy any new hardware in order for MS to reach them. If they can even get PC gamers buying Xbox exclusives through their store on PC, while still being on Steam for other stuff, that's a win for them vs where they are now.
I feel like the new consoles are a recognition that they still need a way to reach non-PC gamers in all the ways consoles can that PCs usually don't, through easy accessibility at retail, relatively subsidised hardware etc. And that's why they're keeping their hats in that ring. But depending on how successful the drive for PC gamers is, the console outreach may not be all that important ultimately, and its success or lack thereof may not be too consequential. (Side note: if PCs were as easy to pick up and market as consoles, I don't think they would bother with consoles at all anymore. But they're not...there's still a good bit of gas in the console model.)
The merging back into PC is if you like a recognition that they can't keep all their eggs in one basket for Xbox anymore,that the investments into the console space have been expensive and haven't necessarily been the most effective in getting people in a longer term way into their platform. After 3 rounds, I don't think they're where they hoped to be, at all. The console routes to users are still important, but they haven't been giving them the stable longer term returns (engagement) that they want, and they're not going to rely on those only any more.
NOOOOO!!!! Please, no, for the love of Jesus Christ, no! I'm just getting warm with all of this, just because this could pave the way for consoles not holding game development back anymore.
Gaming is not only about scalable resolution, texture quality and some switches for AA and FX.
I want leaps in physics and AI and all the other new gimmicks!
Give every iteration 6 years of support at max, then kill it - quick and painless!
LordOfChaos
Member
The more I think about this, I think it would be ok. If they always support one box back, that'll still get each console a reasonable 6 year life. Or if you want to be on the high end, three years. Like an extended tick-tock or S-non-S cycle.
Now if they support the n-2 box, that's a 9 year life...But that would be six boxes between MS and Sony alone and would get development-silly (and imagine the DF comparisons!) and likely hamstring the newest. N-1 sounds about right if it's three years a box.
My concern about this is what happens to clean breaks...Are they going to use Jaguar iterations forever? I don't know if GNMX is abstracted enough to port to any other x86 CPU, say Zen. If it is, cool I guess, but then, are they always stuck on AMD GPUs at least?
So if they'd ever want to break compatibility and go with something newer/incompatible, I guess the last box out would have to be given a longer than three year life, and the cycle comes full circle.
Sony has a long history of discounting older models and getting rid of them for their newer models rather quick. They did it with the PS2 for the Slim, they did it for the Phat PS3 for the semi-BC and non-BC PS3's.
SlickShoesRUCrazy
Member
Still support it with games for another 3-4 years and then release another more powerful Xbox in 2020-21, assuming they go for 3-4 year hardware cycles.
They aren't saying goodbye to the Xbox one. If all these rumors are true, they are flooding the market to hit as many possible demographics as possible.
Want a streaming/miracast device? We got you.
Want a streaming/extender device with native small mobile/arcade game(my assumption) capabilities that you can stream your PC games through? We got you.
Want a game console with a low price point that plays all the big games and you don't really care about res/graphics and does all the above? We got you.
Are you a gaming enthusiast that doesn't mind paying extra for more powerful hardware in order to get the best possible gaming experience for under $500 every 3-4 years? We got you.
What I would love to see is cable tuner card support + dvr. Would love to be able to get rid of cable boxes, be able to have 4-6 channel tuner card, and a allow the rest of the household to be able access live tv and dvr recorded shows while someone is gaming at the same time. Basically reverse what you could do with windows media center on PC and the 360.
tiredheadcrab
Member
I dont see Scorpio launching at $499 at all. MS knows thats the price you dont launch at. My bet is it will be $399 with them loosing a little on manufacturing the system and that is a big maybe. It is possible to get a 6tf system out in 2017 for $399. When they buy these chips and other parts, they buy them in bulk which is far less than what the consumer pays. I am not sure where people are getting the $499 figure from. Probably just a hope rather than speculation.
I am not sure if announcing it now will be a good idea. However, Nintendo did announce the Wii at E3 2005 with a 2006 release. They handled their marketing for the system rather well for that whole year and it paid off really well. Maybe Xbox one sales will slow but I can see that system replacing what the 360's role was and offer consumers a cheap gaming box that has a good amount of apps.
IDK what the situation will be with Neo vs Scorpio and it all depends on how Sony markets the system.
I am not sure if announcing it now will be a good idea. However, Nintendo did announce the Wii at E3 2005 with a 2006 release. They handled their marketing for the system rather well for that whole year and it paid off really well. Maybe Xbox one sales will slow but I can see that system replacing what the 360's role was and offer consumers a cheap gaming box that has a good amount of apps.
IDK what the situation will be with Neo vs Scorpio and it all depends on how Sony markets the system.
Liabe Brave
Member
Yes, it's easier to convince people to buy games on a device they already own than to buy a new device in order to play games. But on PC a Microsoft ecosystem faces far, far tougher competition than Sony represents. Not only do several major--and some minor!--publishers have their own storefronts they won't abandon, Steam is a nigh-monopolistic behemoth. Its market share is far greater than Sonys in the console space.
I just don't see how a Windows store is ever anything but a little minnow in that sea. (Though the sea is large enough that a minnow could be more profitable than their abysmal console ROI.)
Yes, the attraction of the console model for a platform holder was and is undoubtedly that you have a captive audience. But it's very all or nothing in that respect, and every few years things reset. Now obviously both Sony and MS are trying to massage away from that reset in the console space, and the rewards of that captive audience can be great when you have the audience, but how well has this worked out for MS to date vs their investments? Not like they hoped, I don't think, and I think the kick in the nads that is the Xbox One has given then pause to revise whether they'll ever reach their goals via this model alone. I think it may have disillusioned many at MS about the merits of a console-focussed or console-exclusive approach to user engagement for the longer run.
The PC space is open and tough - but I think it looks like a better additional bet for Microsoft now than console alone. The risk is not huge. Any mid term moderate success there is likely to yield better reach and returns for them than a console-only tack. If people only use the Windows Store in the shorter term for Xbox-only content, it's still engagement, it's still new relationships, it's still an opportunity to tempt more purchases in the future out of people. tldr: i think MS is getting happier to settle for an 'open relationship' in the games space with users, rather than trying to (solely) pursue high investment exclusive relationships.
Mihalis0013
Neo Member
I think their plan is to work with Steam, Origin, U-Play and Battle.net on PC while trying to leverage their 1st party stuff like Halo, Gears and Forza to get people going through Windows Store.
If you look at phone, MS basically put everything from Windows Phone onto Android and iOS and in some cases before Windows Phone and with better versions. They really want to turn into a services company.
I guess the other thing to consider is cross play with Xbox console. Will you be able to buy a game on Steam and cross play with your pal on Xbox One/Scorpio or is that feature only available if you buy through Windows Store. Or for that matter would you be able to launch Xbox interface in the background and that connects some dots even if you load the game through Steam?
I imagine their plan isn't to try and over take Steam but rather to work well with it so that people are playing their games on a box or device that runs Windows until they move away from Windows altogether.
In an extreme case, I could even see a world where you load the Xbox Interface app on your Playstation and play Halo through it.
oldergamer
Member
This thread is somewhat frustrating to read. So many different ideas on how it will play out. Accusations of shareholders having a problem? I don't think it's a factor. Ms is sticking with Xbox as a business, people need to get that through their minds. Xbox as a business IS profitable. It's one of the few areas ms expanded into in the last 15 years that didn't fall on its face. Xbox 360 was profitable and Xbox one is not losing money.
Anyway IMO I'm not sure how this works for Sony moving forwards. The upgrade isn't significant enough to warrant purchasing one ps4 over the other unless you have a 4k TV or can see a major difference in vr games (which is still too expensive IMO).outside of some hardcore users. Hitting 40 million owners means the casual needs to be targeted.
For Ms they did a poor job with the xbone, but bringing out a new console with better specs has less a risk of fracturing the xbone market (due to the lower number user installed base). I think they are better positioned to kick-start the new gen of hardware (similar to where they were with Xbox 360 launch). All they need to do is double down on games like they did at the start of the 360s life to gain more users. MS needs exclusive games to gain traction again.the argument that anybody that wants Xbox probably has a gaming pc is pure bull shit. It's been 15 years of people saying that and it never rings true.
Anyway IMO I'm not sure how this works for Sony moving forwards. The upgrade isn't significant enough to warrant purchasing one ps4 over the other unless you have a 4k TV or can see a major difference in vr games (which is still too expensive IMO).outside of some hardcore users. Hitting 40 million owners means the casual needs to be targeted.
For Ms they did a poor job with the xbone, but bringing out a new console with better specs has less a risk of fracturing the xbone market (due to the lower number user installed base). I think they are better positioned to kick-start the new gen of hardware (similar to where they were with Xbox 360 launch). All they need to do is double down on games like they did at the start of the 360s life to gain more users. MS needs exclusive games to gain traction again.the argument that anybody that wants Xbox probably has a gaming pc is pure bull shit. It's been 15 years of people saying that and it never rings true.
wonderful103
Member
By the time we reach that point, all companies will be a service available for a monthly cost on your device of choice, not just ms. That's a long ways away though