What if the Fall 2017 rumor is wrong and, this is wishful thinking, the slim is set to be announced and released within a few weeks effectively replacing the original Xbox One and the Scorpio is actually coming this fall?
Polygon: Xbox Scorpio will be a ~6 TFLOP system (v PS4K's 4.14), unveil soon, Fall 17
- Thread starter BUNTING1243
- Start date
What if the Fall 2017 rumor is wrong and, this is wishful thinking, the slim is set to be announced and released within a few weeks effectively replacing the original Xbox One and the Scorpio is actually coming this fall?
???
Both consoles will have the same PS4 and XB1 standards. It really matters little whether Sony waited a year or not.
People who are going to be buying a lower powered PS4 versus a stronger PS4K are not the same people who would go over to Scorpio, as power doesn't factor into Sony's success all that much.
Its a weird potential for a comparative mind-set to come into play. Microsoft waited longer and produced a much better difference, conversely it would appear as if Sony is making more frequent half-steps of less than (relatively) substantial steps. You'd think/feel your money and dollar is being stretched a lot further with the Microsoft approach (which is probably what Microsoft would also prefer).
I'm not so sure. It has more to with the tech they want to use being ready or not. I'm not sure a large 14nm APU in Q4 2016 is going to cost that much more than a large 14nm APU in Q4 2017. I guess it depends on where yields are at this year versus next. I think the bigger hurdle is Zen, the next version of GCN, and HBM2 bring ready in time. All of those things are supposed to be ready for Spring of 2017 as far as I'm aware, which is exactly when I think this new console is launching.
Also, I think they are going to take a bigger loss on hardware going forward than they did on XBO, though not as massive a loss as they took on Xbox and X360. The digital age and building an ecosystem makes having a loss leader in hardware more viable now than its ever been. If MS is serious about getting a high W10 adoption in the livingroom, then they are going to be willing to take a hit in order to regain the market share and good press.
Shpeshal Nick
aka Collingwood
I think Scorpio is coming this year. The 480s are ready now. Not crazy to think AMD and MS were collaborating on the Scorpio APU alongside the 480 and Zen to have it ready to ship Scorpio consoles by November.
rokkerkory
Member
Could be spring 2017 in limited supply, create that hype of sold out high end product.
-ImaginaryInsider
Member
I'm sure Sony had some idea, but opted for the earlier launch instead.
They can have a 4+ teraflop console a year ahead of the competition, helping to bump up graphical fidelity of the PSVR.
Or
Release a year later with the competition to have the exact same specs, lose the year of uncontested sales, and have the PSVR compete with the Oculus in the console space with no lead-in time.
It's a smarter move to release sooner, the PS4 Neo is close enough power-wise.
GHG
Member
You'd think so but as Apple have proven, marketing is the most important thing when it comes to positioning and selling iterative devices successfully.
totallydied
Neo Member
If MS is going with HBM2 and a better CPU (Zen) they really don't have much of a choice as those technologies would be the determinant factor for release date, the rumour for Sony and available leaked info point to them using simple up-clocks for everything else which would mean they wouldn't have to wait for any technologies to become available.
However in the original rumours about the Sony's Neo, sony was also considering an alternate spec machine for $499 that came with a better CPU.
Also a general question where is everyone getting the 2016 release from as all previous rumour pointed to a Q1-2 2017 release period?
Maximilian Kolbe
Member
What the hell?
Hawk269
Member
Actually, I think that is what the potential game plan for the end of 2016. Release it in November, limited quantities etc. Becomes more available in 2017.
How did the rumors move up a year? If Sony and MS were launching close to the same time, they would be coming out with the same parts by default. These two companies are given the same roadmap by AMD after all
Also...cant say i'm interested in scalebound :/
RedAssedApe
Banned
watch both announce at e3 and have the exact same gpu/cpu and both launching at the same time lol
Night Angel
Member
And this is purely your speculation based on the 480 announcement, right?
wapplew
Member
Just look at the respond for Neo compare to Scorpio.
Neo have mix reception but Scorpio is nothing but anticipation. That one year make huge different.
No Xbox one owner feel burned, no one worry about future games performance issue on Xbox one. Because 4 years felt the right moment for a new gen and 3 years is too soon.
Compsiox
Banned
Scorpio is coming this year. Mark my words.
This isn't a new gen though for Sony. Its a stronger PS4 that has to work with all PS4 games and features by default.
Based on...?
Tripolygon
Banned
The Rumored Neo GPU has the same CU count as this RX480 5.5TF AMD GPU but clocked lower
Neo: 36CU at 911MHz
2304 * 911MHz * 2 = ~4.2TF
Rx480: 36CU at over 1GHz
2304* 1200MHz*2 = ~5.5TF
A theoretical Scorpio would be
2304* 1300MHz * 2 = ~6TF or they could opt for more CUs/sp at lower clock.
That is if my calculations are right. They have to take into account power consumption which is rated to be around 150W for RX480. PS4 idle is rated to be about 90W on menu and about 130W during gaming.
Compsiox
Banned
My gut.
GHG
Member
I think it's more to do with the fact that Xbox one owners have been stuck with an underpowered console for the past few years.
wapplew
Member
And look at the reception for that half gen thing, compare to this thread.
rokkerkory
Member
I think Sony made a very conscious decision to battle all the other VR players so went ahead and went with faster time to delivery.
MS just said, I will partner with Oculus / FB and launch with more hp but at a later date.
MS just said, I will partner with Oculus / FB and launch with more hp but at a later date.
GHG
Member
Shpeshal Nick
aka Collingwood
Obviously.
What about it? If you want a stronger PS4, you get a PS4K. If your an Xbox fan and want a new gen of Xbox, you go with XB Scorpio.
These devices have a completely different function. MS went all in to try and get a strong box to dissociate themselves with XB1's PR nightmare.
Sony went with a tier strategy with PS4 being the base unit and PS4K being the premium unit to expand on their current user base.
With such a disparity between XB1 and Scorpio, its going to be harder for MS to emulate that.
Fess
Member
Think about the RAM in PS4, it was discussed for the longest time how PS4 having 4GB of RAM would affect the performance since XB1 had 8GB of RAM, and how GDDR5 memory might not make the gap as big as you might think just by looking at the ammount if RAM they had, etc. Then Sony was like "Oh by the way, PS4 have 8GB of GDDR5.". Or when PS3 suddenly had gyro controls too when Nintendo was trying to hype up Wii. That's what I'm expecting. The unexpected move. That sneaky sudden move that MS aren't ready for. I just find it unlikely that Sony hasn't planned ahead better than it seems right now.
#Dreamcastfeelings...
Do you remember? A 294ghz machine killing a 200hz just launched machine one year before its own launch...
wapplew
Member
But no one seems to worry about Xbox one get left out but plenty of PS4 owner are.
Maximilian Kolbe
Member
MS/Xbox division isn't even running by 2013's group anymore.
Fess
Member
Aha, so Sony basically just need to find a way to clock it higher to decrease the gap?
Jet engine console this time too? :/
For those who are against the iterative concept in general, there is little scorpio would do to make them feel better about that.
If Sony is launching 2 units based on each other in 6 years, then it is up to the user to switch between the two based on their lifestyle, while still having the option to wait and go for a better upgrade when the next cycle comes around with a more sizable upgrade.
vpance
Gold Member
That's what MS dreams of but it will probably be more like Xbox vs PS2.
RichiRamjag
Member
I think you're just seeing what you want to see. I'm fairly active on the X1 Reddit and many have the same concerns there regarding the next iteration of the console, many have displayed some concern on gaf just the same. I saw so many dang posts of people saying they felt ripped off for buying day one just hours ago. I don't agree personally, but the people are there. Your statement is disingenuous and teetering on the edge of willful ignorance.
I'm iffy on both, but will wait and see.
ninjablade
Banned
I don't know I want the best possible experience in a box, and it's looks like Xbox Scorpio, will offer that. Minus some sony exclusives, I was gonna get the Neo but I wish sony went for a upgrade like the new xbox. If the rumors are true Scorpio games will run 60fps while ps4k will be 30fps cause of the cpu, a pretty huge difference.
And there's the issue. There's no way a console would have a GPU (at least if we're talking about AMD) clocked that high, as it results in issues with yields. Most likely this is using a gimped Vega 10 at a low clock speed, which makes it compatible with HBM2 and explains the Fall 2017 launch.
Tripolygon
Banned
quoting my edit:
They have to take into account power consumption which is rated to be around 150W for RX480. PS4 idle is rated to be about 90W on menu and about 130W during gaming.
So i don't think Sony wants a console that draws too much power. Because it will require an expensive cooling system. You also have to take into consideration, the CPU and other components.
ThoseDeafMutes
Member
The PS4 GDDR5 situation was not them being sneaky, it was the fact that it wasn't clear whether or not they would be able to go for 8GB until very late in development. Microsoft couldn't just overhaul their chip for GDDR5 on short notice, while doubling the existing memory was possible in the PS4.
Can you imagine what the technical situation would have been like if the PS4 had shipped with 4GB to Microsoft's 8? Thousands would have perished in the great DigitalFoundry wars. But such a tradeoff - 4GB of fast or 8GB of slow - would have seemed plausible when they were making their initial designs. If Microsoft knew for sure they would have been able to produce a machine both faster and cheaper with the same 8GB, they would have gone with that option.
Maximilian Kolbe
Member
Or maybe Scorpio is based on 480x, who knows.
Then you(and others who are interested in having the best box by default) have the choice to go with that. But in general, Sony's runaway success with its consoles has not been down to what they have in their box, so they have far more lee way to experiment with the market like this while still leaving themselves open for other options in the future to compete in different areas.
MS pretty much needs a win like this to stay competitive in their home turf, and they are angling for that.
-ImaginaryInsider
Member
The initial backlash was more about the Neo being the first mid-generation console to leak, there was a lot of confusion, Scorpio hasn't had the push back because most of those concerned have had some time to digest and accept it.
Let's have some more Neo rumor threads to see if people are still upset, especially now that both console makers are going this route. I'm not convinced there is a massive "4 years is ok, but 3 years is a dealbreaker" narrative you're trying to sell.
rokkerkory
Member
Yeah ps4k sounds great to me still even if it is 4.1tf
Art Vandilay
Member
This is what I'm wondering.
Compsiox
Banned
Definitely. I've been thinking Fall since before the announcement tho. Sorry I'm excited about my prediction so far.
If the "2 consoles a cycle" thing doesn't work out for Sony, they could just change it up next cycle, and widen the gaps between units again. But for right now, this is what they've chosen to go with to see if the market will respond.
The only people who are going to be freaking out, are people who are too emotionally invested in the fact that MS will have a more powerful unit.
MS waited, they get the rewards of waiting that time.
But at the same time, they ARE going to have to wait until next year for that power, or else Sony would have come in at around the same power as them.
Which makes me think MS is going for Vega and HBM2 and Zen.
There's no way they could put Zen and HBM2 into Scorpio this year without Sony having bothered to do it as well.
The only people who are going to be freaking out, are people who are too emotionally invested in the fact that MS will have a more powerful unit.
MS waited, they get the rewards of waiting that time.
But at the same time, they ARE going to have to wait until next year for that power, or else Sony would have come in at around the same power as them.
Which makes me think MS is going for Vega and HBM2 and Zen.
There's no way they could put Zen and HBM2 into Scorpio this year without Sony having bothered to do it as well.
