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[Chris1]

I think Phil knows that if a device like this is going to be successful then it needs to be announced at E3 with a bang and it needs to be on live TV.

This is the only event Microsoft does that is on live TV.

Then it'd be at next E3 with the Scorpio delayed to holiday 2017.

Phil is a smart guy, he's not going to kill xbox one sales this year. The only way I can see MS announcing Scorpio this E3 for release next year is if it's actually next gen and MS has completely given up on the XB1 and doesn't give two fucks about it any more and willing to cut their losses. But the Slim kinda proves otherwise there.

 

[FordGTGuy]

Then it'd be at next E3 with the Scorpio delayed to holiday 2017.

Phil is a smart guy, he's not going to kill xbox one sales this year. The only way I can see MS announcing Scorpio this E3 for release next year is if it's actually next gen and MS has completely given up on the XB1 and doesn't give two fucks about it any more and willing to cut their losses. But the Slim kinda proves otherwise there.

Why? What's the reasoning behind a Holiday 2017 launch?

That is way too far off and there is nothing speculated inside of the console that would take that long.

Also Phil wouldn't be teasing leaks for a console that is 18 months out.

You guys don't seem to understand, the sales are already killed for those in the know. We already have three sources saying that the Scorpio is happening and it's already circulated through the news. People already know that it's coming.

What's more damaging? Allowing the community to continue to spread rumors that could damage the image of Scorpio or just come out and set the record straight?

 

[Chris1]

Why? What's the reasoning behind a Holiday 2017 launch?

Because they're not killing their sales this year, and if like you said they need E3, then their only chance is next E3 which puts them out the Spring 2017 window.

Also Phil wouldn't be teasing leaks for a console that is 18 months out.

That's because the console is coming out in 2016. Maybe.

 

[Glorified G]

Tom Warren is as accurate as can get for MS, yeah it's a rumour but if Tom says it, it's almost certainly going to happen.

Well, almost accurate:

Xbox Surface: Microsoft's 7-inch gaming tablet By Tom Warren.

 

[Compsiox]

Because they're not killing their sales this year, and if like you said they need E3, then their only chance is next E3 which puts them out the Spring 2017 window.



That's because the console is coming out in 2016. Maybe.

It is!

 

[FordGTGuy]

Because they're not killing their sales this year, and if like you said they need E3, then their only chance is next E3 which puts them out the Spring 2017 window.

I honestly don't think announcing the Scorpio will do anymore damage then has already happened because of the rumors being spread.

Just look at what the rumors have done in a few weeks, imagine what will happen in 18 months.

It's better for Microsoft to just come out and set the record straight.

Also if they price the slim right then I doubt the Scorpio announcement would hurt sales as bad as you might think.

 

[Dee Dah Dave]

I really doubt that a partial announcement of the Scorpio is going to hurt current things too much. It all depends how they do it. The majority of regular consumers aren't that particular. If they want an XB1 slim this Christmas they will buy one.

It's either do nothing and allow Sony the full limelight with the Neo, or lightly introduce the Scorpio somehow. I'm guessing they think the latter is probably the better option.

 

[FordGTGuy]

I really doubt that a partial announcement of the Scorpio is going to hurt current things too much. It all depends how they do it. The majority of regular consumers aren't that particular. If they want an XB1 slim this Christmas they will buy one.

It's either do nothing and allow Sony the full limelight with the Neo, or lightly introduce the Scorpio somehow. I'm guessing they think the latter is probably the better option.

Exactly, I agree completely.

Come out, show a plastic case and sell the hardware specs like Sony did with the PS4 reveal.

 

[Curufinwe]

Heres more proof .. Xbox 360 was selling a MORE expensive bundle than PS3 and outselling it in the usa were people generally have more money.

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/127675/Analysis_Xbox_360_Outsells_PS3_At_Higher_Average_Price_In_US.php

Crow is best served cold.

The Xbone has been cheaper than the PS4 for a while and the PS4 is still outselling it in America.

 

[Chris1]

I honestly don't think announcing the Scorpio will do anymore damage then has already happened because of the rumors being spread.

Just look at what the rumors have done in a few weeks, imagine what will happen in 18 months.

It's better for Microsoft to just come out and set the record straight.

Also if they price the slim right then I doubt the Scorpio announcement would hurt sales as bad as you might think.

Only the hardcore know about it, random Joe, or Jack's parents won't have the faintest clue about the rumours. If they officially announce it at E3, it'll be in the news, and everyone will know and hold off. It's not really the same.

I think we can all agree consoles have a limit of $399, any higher and they're killing themselves. To price the slim right they'd have to go down to $199 which would be a $150 price drop in the matter of a few weeks, that's not happening.

 

[...Scatter...]

Has it been determined that it's even possible to slim down the Xbox One?

Are they paying for a tapeout of 14nm finfet for the slim? Maybe if they can turn it into a cheap UHD player.

 

[FordGTGuy]

Only the hardcore know about it, random Joe, or Jack's parents won't have the faintest clue about the rumours. If they officially announce it at E3, it'll be in the news, and everyone will know and hold off. It's not really the same.

I think we can all agree consoles have a limit of $399, any higher and they're killing themselves. To price the slim right they'd have to go down to $199 which would be a $150 price drop in the matter of a few weeks, that's not happening.

The hardcore are two important things.

1) They tell all they know to hold off on buying because they know something better is coming.

2) They are the ones that go out on day one and buy this console.

Most of the "non-hardcore" will likely have no problem dropping the money on a slim-Xbox One with a price cut and games thrown in.

There is a huge risk in allowing rumors to dictate the first impressions of your new console.

 

[Chobel]

"Just lower the price of XB1/slim", "just do more deals", "just bundle more games" yeah because MS loves and really wants to do that. /s

Geez people, MS wants to increase XB1 sales but sure as hell they want to stay profitable while they're selling it as much as possible. Announcing Scorpio this early will force their hand to do even more price cuts and deals, and no business wants that.

 

[FordGTGuy]

"Just lower the price of XB1/slim", yeah because MS loves and really wants to do that. /s

Geez people, MS wants to increase XB1 sales but sure as hell they want to stay profitable while they're selling it as much as possible. Announcing Scorpio this early will force their hand to do even more price cuts and deals, and no business wants that.

The slim doesn't exist on the market yet so it's kind of impossible to lower its price when it doesn't have one yet.

The Xbox One fat is most definitely going to get a price drop for this holiday. They are going to want to sell out of their stock of Fat Xbox One's and replace it with the slim as fast as possible.

Every minute fat Xbox One's sit on store shelves and warehouses they lose Microsoft money from resupplying retailers with new ones. Like it or not but they have to get these consoles out of there.

 

[Dabanton]

Wow I've dropped in this thread once or twice this week and the last few pages have been to put t kindly pretty frenzied.

Although it's good to see a MS thread where the overall theme isn't LOL resolution.

 

[Chobel]

The slim doesn't exist on the market yet so it's kind of impossible to lower its price when it doesn't have one yet.

The Xbox One fat is most definitely going to get a price drop for this holiday. They are going to want to sell out of their stock of Fat Xbox One's and replace it with the slim as fast as possible.

That's why I said "even more". MS is already losing shit ton of money on these deals to keep XB1 sales well, with Scorpio revealed way before it's official launch, expect these deals and promotions to grow even bigger, because not only they should be worried about PS4 eating their share, but also Scorpio making many people wait for the new XB1.

Every minute fat Xbox One's sit on store shelves and warehouses they lose Microsoft money from resupplying retailers with new ones. Like it or not but they have to get these consoles out of there.

If Scorpio gets announced this E3 (assuming it's not coming this year), moving these consoles will get even harder.

 

[etta]

That's why I said "even more". MS is already losing shit ton of money on these deals to keep XB1 sales well, with Scorpio revealed way before it's official launch, expect these deals and promotions to grow even bigger, because not only they should be worried about PS4 eating their share, but also Scorpio making many people wait for the new XB1.

How much are they losing right now?

 

[Chobel]

How much are they losing right now?

I dunno. But sure as hell they aren't making profits from these Fat XB1s with all the deals happening in the last two months. Last year they weren't even making profits on hardware when it was $350.

 

[Servbot24]

Well, almost accurate:

Xbox Surface: Microsoft's 7-inch gaming tablet By Tom Warren.

To be fair, it would be rather shocking if such a device was never prototyped and perhaps even considered for market.

 

[SneakersSO]

I mean, we have several sources who first spilled this who said the target date is fall of 2017. I don't know why so many posters are trying to combat that part of the leak, while welcoming the specs with open arms. Heck, there could be several reasons why next year is necessary, including a reduction in manufacturing cost on the new chipset, or some form of finalization for the specs, or any other myriad things that must be resolved between now & launch.

The fact that the leaks we got spelled out a slim X1 this year, Scorpio next year, and spilled the beans on targeted specs - we haven't gotten any conflicting reports on any of this stuff. As for MS revealing Scorpio this year at E3, who knows. The Osborne Effect is real, but it could be that they view their internal X1 sales forecast to be so low for the next 18 months that they don't actually care about announcing this early.

 

[Chris1]

I mean, we have several sources who first spilled this who said the target date is fall of 2017. I don't know why so many posters are trying to combat that part of the leak, while welcoming the specs with open arms. Heck, there could be several reasons why next year is necessary, including a reduction in manufacturing cost on the new chipset, or some form of finalization for the specs, or any other myriad things that must be resolved between now & launch.

The fact that the leaks we got spelled out a slim X1 this year, Scorpio next year, and spilled the beans on targeted specs - we haven't gotten any conflicting reports on any of this stuff. As for MS revealing Scorpio this year at E3, who knows. The Osborne Effect is real, but it could be that they view their internal X1 sales forecast to be so low for the next 18 months that they don't actually care about announcing this early.

They had record sales last holiday and have been up yoy most months this year I believe? With the slim and gears their forecasts can't be that low.

 

[FordGTGuy]

I mean, we have several sources who first spilled this who said the target date is fall of 2017. I don't know why so many posters are trying to combat that part of the leak, while welcoming the specs with open arms. Heck, there could be several reasons why next year is necessary, including a reduction in manufacturing cost on the new chipset, or some form of finalization for the specs, or any other myriad things that must be resolved between now & launch.

The fact that the leaks we got spelled out a slim X1 this year, Scorpio next year, and spilled the beans on targeted specs - we haven't gotten any conflicting reports on any of this stuff. As for MS revealing Scorpio this year at E3, who knows. The Osborne Effect is real, but it could be that they view their internal X1 sales forecast to be so low for the next 18 months that they don't actually care about announcing this early.

The people that leaked didn't seem to have any clear date at all to the release of the Scorpio. I'm going to guess they saw the same stuff Brad Sams did and made an educated guess of holiday 2017.

No one has been able to definitively say holiday 2017 and Brad said it could be Spring to Holiday.

In other words, these guys know it's coming but not when.

Also as said before, Phil is not going to tease a Scorpio leak that is 18 months out.

On top of this apparently the information of the power of the Scorpio leaked in a meeting, a meeting Microsoft pretty knew was going to cause leaks.

 

[mcrommert]

Well, almost accurate:

Xbox Surface: Microsoft's 7-inch gaming tablet By Tom Warren.

Device was scrapped days before being announced...confirmed as real multiple times

 

[Outrun]

The people that leaked didn't seem to have any clear date at all to the release of the Scorpio. I'm going to guess they saw the same stuff Brad Sams did and made an educated guess of holiday 2017.

No one has been able to definitively say holiday 2017 and Brad said it could be Spring to Holiday.

In other words, these guys know it's coming but not when.

Also as said before, Phil is not going to tease a Scorpio leak that is 18 months out.

Yep,

I've seen many positing that Scorpio is coming holiday 2017. I am not quite sure why the certainty.

I am thinking sooner rather than later...

It would not surprise me if MS has been working on this with AMD for a while.

What is impressive is the radio silence that has been kept for both Neo and Scorpio.

 

[Sydle]

Device was scrapped days before being announced...confirmed as real multiple times

Oh yeah, it didn't pass Nadella's test of being innovative or something like that.

 

[SneakersSO]

The people that leaked didn't seem to have any clear date at all to the release of the Scorpio. I'm going to guess they saw the same stuff Brad Sams did and made an educated guess of holiday 2017.

No one has been able to definitively say holiday 2017 and Brad said it could be Spring to Holiday.

In other words, these guys know it's coming but not when.

Also as said before, Phil is not going to tease a Scorpio leak that is 18 months out.

On top of this apparently the information of the power of the Scorpio leaked in a meeting, a meeting Microsoft pretty knew was going to cause leaks.

AMD is currently forecasting 3 high-profile new chipset devices to be entering manufacturing this current fiscal year. Just going by what we do know, its the Slim, Neo, & NX. If Scorpio was due within the next 12 months, they would have 4.

 

[robbo]

I mean, we have several sources who first spilled this who said the target date is fall of 2017. I don't know why so many posters are trying to combat that part of the leak, while welcoming the specs with open arms. Heck, there could be several reasons why next year is necessary, including a reduction in manufacturing cost on the new chipset, or some form of finalization for the specs, or any other myriad things that must be resolved between now & launch.

The fact that the leaks we got spelled out a slim X1 this year, Scorpio next year, and spilled the beans on targeted specs - we haven't gotten any conflicting reports on any of this stuff. As for MS revealing Scorpio this year at E3, who knows. The Osborne Effect is real, but it could be that they view their internal X1 sales forecast to be so low for the next 18 months that they don't actually care about announcing this early.

People are forgetting the Osbourne effects impact on Sony as well. No way Sony moves it's targeted 20m in next 12 months with the most powerful console on the horizon. Seem the leaks could be aimed at damaging a competitor selling 2 to 1.

 

[FordGTGuy]

AMD is currently forecasting 3 high-profile new chipset devices to be entering manufacturing this current fiscal year. Just going by what we do know, its the Slim, Neo, & NX. If Scorpio was due within the next 12 months, they would have 4.

Who says the slim is on the new chipset?

 

[SneakersSO]

Who says the slim is on the new chipset?

A console redesign, like the slim, would require a new chipset to be designed & manufactured. The leaks we have gotten say the slim is launching this year and MS' stock clearing pricecut indicates that they it will most likely launch the week of E3 (as many of those deals come with a 'While supplies last" & have a date of MS conference on their ads).

Its still a new chip set that has entered or will enter manufacturing. AMD has said they have 3 going into production within the next 12 months. The chances for the Scorpio launching within that time frame are nearly nonexistent.

 

[RoKKeR]

There is a huge risk in allowing rumors to dictate the first impressions of your new console.

This is the primary reason I think they will address it in some form or another at E3 this year. Whether or not they give it a name or specific details is anybody's best guess, but I think we will have official words on the next Xbox by the end of their conference.

 

[chadskin]

The people that leaked didn't seem to have any clear date at all to the release of the Scorpio. I'm going to guess they saw the same stuff Brad Sams did and made an educated guess of holiday 2017.

No one has been able to definitively say holiday 2017 and Brad said it could be Spring to Holiday.

The other console, codenamed Scorpio, is unlikely to be released until late 2017 according to Polygon's sources.

Brad Sams saying spring 2017 was pretty clearly based off of the 10TF BS wet fan dream report:

They should announce this year at a separate event from E3 2016, but still a few days before the fair. the announcement will be made this year but the release of the Xbox next is not expected before next spring, to read the roadmap.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1214423

 

[Sydle]

Brad Sams saying spring 2017 was pretty clearly based off of the 10TF BS wet fan dream report:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1214423

Brad Sams said he's hearing xbox, hardware, spring.

He read 10TF from the chat and then said he couldn't comment on that.

 

[statham]

. Last year they weren't even making profits on hardware when it was $350.

linkage please.

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

AMD is currently forecasting 3 high-profile new chipset devices to be entering manufacturing this current fiscal year. Just going by what we do know, its the Slim, Neo, & NX. If Scorpio was due within the next 12 months, they would have 4.

I'm not sure that is the case and isn't it rumoured NX may not be AMD?

Anyway, some quotes from AMD's last earnings call:

So maybe let me give you some explanation on that. So the semi-custom, if you -- just to recap on what we've said about the semi-custom designs in the past, we have a total of three design wins that have a lifetime revenue of about -- let's call it $1.5 billion or greater. And that will come across over the next three to four years. In addition, we have our current game console business as well.

So when you look at the aggregate of that, we do expect to start ramping that new business in the second half of the year. But we also expect the seasonal uplift of our traditional game console business. So that is adding to what we expect will be a strong year for semi-custom overall.

If I can just slip in, the $1.5 billion you said, is that evenly split over the next three to four years or is it ramps towards the end of 2018 or so?

No, it is definitely -- I mean, it takes some time to ramp. So this year will be lower since it is half a year and it is not all the designs. And as we go into the next few years, it will ramp to a steady-state.

So only two of the design wins this year. Could be Xbox One slim+Neo? Or Xbox One slim+Streamer?

 

[chadskin]

Brad Sams said he's hearing xbox, hardware, spring.

He read 10TF from the chat and then said he couldn't comment on that.

As I've said in the other thread regarding this stream, his info on this year is looking solid but everything beyond that was extremely murky, to the point that it seemed like he made this stuff up as he went along based on various previous rumors (including the 10TF one he didn't shoot down immediately which is pretty telling in and of itself), while Polygon (and Kotaku) actually received some solid info on the hardware itself. And it's not like Polygon's report went up weeks or months after Sams' stream, it was published mere hours later.

I know who I'm more inclined to believe when it comes to Xbox's plans for 2017.

 

[Primethius]

They had record sales last holiday and have been up yoy most months this year I believe? With the slim and gears their forecasts can't be that low.

Yea, last holiday was it's best holiday yet (though very similar to 2014). However, XB1 has been down every month this year over last except March where it was up by 5k.

Slim should provide a much needed boost to its sales.

 

[Sydle]

As I've said in the other thread regarding this stream, his info on this year is looking solid but everything beyond that was extremely murky, to the point that it seemed like he made this stuff up as he went along based on various previous rumors (including the 10TF one he didn't shoot down immediately which is pretty telling in and of itself), while Polygon (and Kotaku) actually received some solid info on the hardware itself. And it's not like Polygon's report went up weeks or months after Sams' stream, it was published mere hours later.

I know who I'm more inclined to believe when it comes to Xbox's plans for 2017.

He immediately replied to the person in chat that he couldn't comment on that. That seems like an appropriate response if his source(s) didn't relay anything in regards to it.

He confidently stated he's heard "xbox, hardware, spring." Now, that could mean reveal in spring.

Polygon said they've heard MS is feeling pressure to reveal as early as this E3 due to Neo.

We'll see.

 

[Chobel]

linkage please.

I don't have the link, but last year when Phil Spencer was asked if XB1 was profitable he avoided answering the question and instead talked about how they're making profits from software.

 

[rokkerkory]

10tf? Lol 😜😜😜

 

[RedSwirl]

So is this discussion rolling around with the same information that started the thread?

If so, then if it's fall 2017 and that significant a leap over the Xbox One (what, 5x?) I wonder if Microsoft doesn't just brand it the next Xbox but with full backwards compatibility, cross-gen games that are cross compatible (as in you buy it once and it works on both gens), and updates for older games to run better. That four year difference is the same amount of time that passed between the original Xbox and Xbox 360, and it would be less of a clean break than that.

 

[statham]

I don't have the link, but last year when Phil Spencer was asked if XB1 was profitable he avoided answering the question and instead talked about how they're making profits from software.

pretty weak, maybe they were breakin even? not definite at all. and even if that was the case, MS is willing to lose money on XB1 to make it up on software, its a good sign that a powerhouse Scorpio could take a hit to get the price down. I'm a-okay with that.

imagine if Sony launched at $499 this fall @ 4.2 TF and MS eats some costs and launches the beast @ 5.8TF this spring for $399.

 

[icespide]

pretty weak, maybe they were breakin even? not definite at all. and even if that was the case, MS is willing to lose money on XB1 to make it up on software, its a good sign that a powerhouse Scorpio could take a hit to get the price down. I'm a-okay with that.

imagine if Sony launched at $499 this fall @ 4.2 TF and MS eats some costs and launches the beast @ 5.8TF this spring for $399.

no way in hell Sony launches at $499

 

[Chobel]

pretty weak, maybe they were breakin even? not definite at all. and even if that was the case, MS is willing to lose money on XB1 to make it up on software, its a good sign that a powerhouse Scorpio could take a hit to get the price down. I'm a-okay with that.

imagine if Sony launched at $499 this fall @ 4.2 TF and MS eats some costs and launches the beast @ 5.8TF this spring for $399.

Ignoring the not serious stuff in your post, MS is willing to lose money on XB1 not because they want to make it up on software, it's because Sony forced them to. They're not gonna make the situation even worse by announcing Scorpio this early.

 

[statham]

Ignoring the not serious stuff in your post, MS is willing to lose money on XB1 not because they want to make it up on software, it's because Sony forced them to. They're not gonna make the situation even worse by announcing Scorpio this early.

they lost alot of the core to PS4 because of power and other actions they did in 2013, reason why we see some low H5 sales, the core that buys everything, alot went to Sony. If Sony has even a stronger PS this fall, they don't want to lose more of the core, reason why announcing it at E3, keep peeps from buying PS4.5 and maybe get back a few. The peeps buying consoles now, they can counteract with a much cheaper then PS4 console. They are not the core, and more casual.

 

[DuckSlayer]

This is highly unlikely but u can get a 6tf+ console right now if u want it http://www.overclock3d.net/articles/gpu_displays/colorful_show_off_an_intel_skylake_motherboard_with_a_built_in_gtx_1070_gpu/1

Est cost with i5 would be over $450 when in bulk .. Unless intel and nvidia actually want console share then it could be $350 so total price would likely be $600 .. Ms could sell a $599 7tf console right now if they wanted .. Xbox pro?

Personally i think xbox will be zen 6tf in may next year for $499.

 

[Hawk269]

The hardcore are two important things.

1) They tell all they know to hold off on buying because they know something better is coming.

2) They are the ones that go out on day one and buy this console.

Most of the "non-hardcore" will likely have no problem dropping the money on a slim-Xbox One with a price cut and games thrown in.

There is a huge risk in allowing rumors to dictate the first impressions of your new console.

I agree partially with this. The bigger issue that I see is that if Sony does announce the Neo, which I think they will and MS does not talk about Scorpio, the media buzz will be about the Neo and how Sony is coming out with a high end console. While those in the know like us here and the media will know about MS working on the Scorpio, the general public will not.

In short, it is a PR minefield that MS must maneuver through. By announcing/talking about Scorpio they can say to the average consumer that we also have a high powered system coming, but the downside is that it could cannibalize current Xbox One Slim/Standard sales.

If history has taught us anything, bad messaging can hurt you. By not talking about Scorpio, they run the risk of public opinion swaying towards the Neo, much like the whole Used game and more power that the PS4 had going for them amongst the general public. It is tricky time for MS, but they are almost in a damned if they do/damned if they don't situation.

 

[wapplew]

The less people buy Xbox one, the faster MS can dished current gen and move on to the next gen, it's good news for people who want Scorpio.
Everyone seem to want to hit that reset button anyway.

 

[Dabanton]

I could see any talk of scorpio being left to a 'one last thing' for the future power showing.

Enough to whet the audiences appetite and keep the focus on them. I wonder what game they could potentially use to do it?

 

[JeffG]

If history has taught us anything, bad messaging can hurt you. By not talking about Scorpio, they run the risk of public opinion swaying towards the Neo, much like the whole Used game and more power that the PS4 had going for them amongst the general public. It is tricky time for MS, but they are almost in a damned if they do/damned if they don't situation.

The Neo is still in speculation stage right now. So until an official Sony press release shows up, its really not that big of a deal.

As soon as sony officially announces a new console the clock is ticking. Depending on release date, micosoft could sit on their own announcement until just before the sony release date.

 

[ninjablade]

The less people buy Xbox one, the faster MS can dished current gen and move on to the next gen, it's good news for people who want Scorpio.
Everone seem to want to hit that reset button anyway.

man i wish playstation 4k had these specs, at the very least a zen cpu like the scorpio is suppose to have, i would save a ton of money be selling my ps4, and just getting the neo, now i'm forced to get a scorpio.