Brexit |OT| UK Referendum on EU Membership - 23 June 2016

Did you vote for the side that is going to win?

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I think Leave was going to win and whilst I don't think this murder will be blamed on one side or another but it will focus minds and with the campaign stopping and the nonsense being spouted by both sides likely to be calmed I think people will be more likely to vote for the status quo.

It's one of those things I think that will bring some reality and I think people will want to go for the perceived safe option.
 
ClosingADoor said:
You're laughing this off a bit, but isn't this a major problem? Nobody has any plan ready for what actually is going to happen when Britain votes Leave and that is a totally irresponsible way to go about it.
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Honestly? No, I don't really think there's any other way to go about it. By the nature of the vested interests at play it's impossible to pre-negotiate anything - you have to wait until after the Leave vote comes in. Setting out a concrete proposal beforehand just gives other players (e.g. the rEU) the opportunity to say "No way would we agree to that". So you're better off leaving it vague.

We saw the same thing in the Scottish Indyref. Any attempt to say something like "We'd have a fiscal union with the rUK" just teed up George Osborne to say "No chance".

Edit:

ittoryu said:
I am not entirely sure if you truly believe the above, but given the recent steer towards "let's give the jobs to unemployed British people" and the general racism towards the immigrants in general, I think you are being way too optimistic.
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I'm being entirely genuine :-/
 
ittoryu said:
In addition to this, the "lamentable situation" has been demystified on a number of occasions already; but I guess the "feeling" of "too many immigrants!" will always be there, no matter what the data will actually show.
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That's why that ploy works, especially if your side (left/right) of politics is in government and the plan isn't working. Rather than place the responsibility on government, I.e. The people responsible for running the country it's always somebody else's fault.
 
QuicheFontaine said:
Honestly? No, I don't really think there's any other way to go about it. By the nature of the vested interests at play it's impossible to pre-negotiate anything - you have to wait until after the Leave vote comes in. Setting out a concrete proposal beforehand just gives other players (e.g. the rEU) the opportunity to say "No way would we agree to that". So you're better off leaving it vague.

We saw the same thing in the Scottish Indyref. Any attempt to say something like "We'd have a fiscal union with the rUK" just teed up George Osborne to say "No chance".
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It's not about negotiating things already. It is about the Leave campaign actually having proposals and saying "this is what we are going to try and achieve in terms of changes after we leave."

How are the voters supposed to make an informed decision if you refuse to tell them your actual plan and proposals? And if the other side says "that is not going to happen" to one of your proposals, you have a backup ready or a good argument why it would be in the best interest of both to do it and that you think they will agree in the end.
 
ClosingADoor said:
It's not about negotiating things already. It is about the Leave campaign actually having proposals and saying "this is what we are going to try and achieve in terms of changes after we leave."

How are the voters supposed to make an informed decision if you refuse to tell them your actual plan and proposals? And if the other side says "that is not going to happen" to one of your proposals, you have a backup ready or a good argument why it would be in the best interest of both to do it and that you think they will agree in the end.
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Refuse? The Brexit campaign has already outlined immediate changes following the exit vote.
 
Guys, according to my Facebook feed...

We should leave EU because:

13432372_591964784318923_57319159272384458_n.jpg


sigh

I guess I should prepare for Brexit.
 
Yet to see any remain supports post anything anywhere near the racist shit that's been all over social media the last couple of weeks. Not everyone who votes Leave is a racist - but every racist votes is leaving it seems.

It goes back to that thing about who wants us to go - Putin and Trump. Whereas our allies all desperately want us to stay. And yet nothing matters now except "Take back our country" and stoping hordes of imaginary immigrants.

Like others, I've never been more disappointed by my country. I still have a faint shred of hope that next week we will shake our heads and recover from this collective nightmare we seem to be engaged in.
 
Ashes said:
Aren't we taking mostly children refugees anyhow?
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Asylum applications in the UK by quarter (excl. Dependants)

Q1 2015 - 5,955
Q2 2015 - 6,203
Q3 2015 - 10,156
Q4 2015 - 10,100
Q1 2016 - 8,228

There are an estimated 126,000 refugees living in the UK. That's just 0.19% of the total population (64.1 million people).

How many asylum seekers came to the UK in 2015?

The UK received 38,878 asylum applications. (including dependents).
This was less than Germany (431,000), Sweden (163,000), and Hungary (163,000).

Just 45 per cent of cases were granted asylum and allowed to stay once their cases had been fully concluded.

Many are initially refused because it is difficult to provide the evidence needed to meet the strict criteria of a refugee.
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I agree that some countries have way too many refugees and that immigration in EU countries is a problem. However, due to the UK's position, the whole fear of immigration there is not comparable.
 
killer_clank said:
None of which have a majority in parliament. If Brexit does win, then a huge number of MPs would aim for membership of the single market to continue.
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If it is a Leave vote, I definitely think there should be a snap election with candidates clearly setting out what model they would support for the UK outside the EU.
 
QuicheFontaine said:
The future's an unwritten book. If you asked me in the 80's whether I thought we'd be in an economic and political union with a bunch of USSR satellite states, I'd probably say I don't see how that will ever happen. But here we are.
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With that reasoning you could argue against anything without having to provide anything to back up the argument, it's not an argument for voting either way in this referendum. As it stands, there is very little reason to believe Turkey will ever join the EU.
 
QuicheFontaine said:
If it is a Leave vote, I definitely think there should be a snap election with candidates clearly setting out what model they would support for the UK outside the EU.
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This endlessly annoys me - during indyref the Scottish govt produced a 600 page document with their plans for after a yes vote and it was still endlessly scrutinised. The Brexiteers have no plans they can even agree on and they've been relatively unchallenged on it.
 
killer_clank said:
None of which have a majority in parliament. If Brexit does win, then a huge number of MPs would aim for membership of the single market to continue.
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On the balance of probability, I'd wager a Norway style deal... basically most of the baggage of EU regulation with no way to assert our influence? So even less democratic than the process already is. Brexit really is going to be one hell of a mess.
 
Ashes said:
On the balance of probability, I'd wager a Norway style deal... basically most of the baggage of EU regulation with no way to assert our influence? So even less democratic than the process already is. Brexit really is going to be one hell of a mess.
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Given that a Norway style deal would involve the same immigration policies that exist now, I think you'd find quite a lot of opposition to that. Given that immigration is the most important issue for people, I imagine in the end, Britain will just be an external party that would export into the common market rather than a part of it.
 
Kabouter said:
With that reasoning you could argue against anything without having to provide anything to back up the argument, it's not an argument for voting either way in this referendum. As it stands, there is very little reason to believe Turkey will ever join the EU.
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Never is a long time. I think Turkey will join at some point in the future based on one thing alone - the EU's thirst for expansion.

KingSnake said:
Immigration being the biggest issue here, there won't be any free trade agreement possible.
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Eh? Does Canada's FTA include freedom of movement? Does Mexico's? It would seem perfectly possible.
 
QuicheFontaine said:
Never is a long time. I think Turkey will join at some point in the future based on one thing alone - the EU's thirst for expansion.
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The EU rejected Morocco's application and has shown no interest in pursuing Turkey's. The scenarios that have Turkey joining are so outlandish. If we ever do let them in, it'll be a Turkey so unrecognisable from today that people really wouldn't care.

Plus, the only way Turkey joins is if the British government - and every other member state government - *ALLOWS* Turkey to join (presuming we're still in ourselves). This isn't something that can be forced upon us.
 
QuicheFontaine said:
Never is a long time. I think Turkey will join at some point in the future based on one thing alone - the EU's thirst for expansion.
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Why is this thirst something that is apparently eternal for the EU, but the opposition to Turkish membership only temporary? Opposition to Turkish membership is also far more widespread and for fundamental reasons, which of course aren't going to change.
 
QuicheFontaine said:
Never is a long time. I think Turkey will join at some point in the future based on one thing alone - the EU's thirst for expansion.
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Except that thirst for expansion can be blocked by states that don't want it. Britain can veto it if they want. Greece can also, which is even more likely. It's a non-issue, plain and simple. The only reason some stuff with Turkey was even on the table lately was to get rid of refugees in Europe. And even then the EU denied them the visa free travel now.

Eh? Does Canada's FTA include freedom of movement? Does Mexico's? It would seem perfectly possible.
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But would the EU agree to it and think it is beneficial? You'd be sure every Eastern European country would try to block an agreement that does not include freedom of movement towards Britain.
 
QuicheFontaine said:
I note that if you do this exercise today with the FT's rolling average (48% Leave, 43% Remain, 8% Undecided) you end up with Remain 49% Leave 51%. It's not too late to change your prediction...
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FT includes some pollsters I excluded because they are shit, so I'll stick for now. Might change in the final few days if necessary.
 
QuicheFontaine said:
Eh? Does Canada's FTA include freedom of movement? Does Mexico's? It would seem perfectly possible.
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But we're not about to be Canada or Mexico. We're about to be Norway.

It's more likely that any trade deal with the EU would require us to be in Schengen than to leave out the free movement of peoples all together.

Which, hey, maybe Leaving won't be so bad after-all. The EU can get on with it without all of our obstructionist bollocks, and we'll end up having to play by their rules anyway. Win-win.
 
ClosingADoor said:
But would the EU agree to it and think it is beneficial? You'd be sure every Eastern European country would try to block an agreement that does not include freedom of movement towards Britain.
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Not only Eastern European countries, but also most probably France and Germany. Because if this trade agreement is signed like this it will give a huge boost to the right wing parties in some countries.

Edit: also it was stated a lot of times by the French and German leaders that there will be no concession.
 
KingSnake said:
Not only Eastern European countries, but also most probably France and Germany. Because if this trade agreement is signed like this it will give a huge boost to the right wing parties in some countries.
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Yes. None of these countries want to encourage the precedent that you can have a divorce but still fuck the ex.
 
Vagabundo said:
Not a chance that EU will agree to it. If you go be prepared to be made an example of so that no other country will ever want to leave.

That's the way it will has to be.
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I don't think the UK will necessarily be made an example of, I however also think they won't be getting a deal that is better than what others have gotten because of the dangers of setting a precedent that way.
 
Sir Fragula said:
The EU rejected Morocco's application and has shown no interest in pursuing Turkey's. The scenarios that have Turkey joining are so outlandish. If we ever do let them in, it'll be a Turkey so unrecognisable from today that people really wouldn't care.

Plus, the only way Turkey joins is if the British government - and every other member state government - *ALLOWS* Turkey to join (presuming we're still in ourselves). This isn't something that can be forced upon us.
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Well, the government of the day might make a dumb or rash decision. Maybe there will be some big drive to admit Turkey in the 2040s that we get swept up in, I don't know.

Kabouter said:
Why is this thirst something that is apparently eternal for the EU, but the opposition to Turkish membership only temporary? Opposition to Turkish membership is also far more widespread and for fundamental reasons, which of course aren't going to change.
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I say the EU has a thirst for expansion based on history - it's just what it does. Opposition to Turkish membership seems more to ebb and flow. I think they were closer to being accepted 25 years ago than they are now.

ClosingADoor said:
Except that thirst for expansion can be blocked by states that don't want it. Britain can veto it if they want. Greece can also, which is even more likely. It's a non-issue, plain and simple. The only reason some stuff with Turkey was even on the table lately was to get rid of refugees in Europe. And even then the EU denied them the visa free travel now.
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The EU has denied them the visa free travel for now. I think that one extra word is important. I'm pretty sure that that decision has simply been postponed until after the referendum.

Edit:

I dunno, I don't really feel like it's worth continuing with this. I think we're all in agreement that Turkey is a long loooooooong way off joining at the very least. What are we even doing at this point??
 
Kabouter said:
I don't think the UK will necessarily be made an example of, I however also think they won't be getting a deal that is better than what others have gotten because of the dangers of setting a precedent that way.
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Of course they wont say that, but bureaucrats and politions can be small minded and malicious. I can see them dragging out the negotiations hoping the UKs economy tanks.

And of course all the trade deals done on the UKs behalf through the EU will have to be redone, it will take ages.

Although Ireland has their back, mostly out of self interest, I doubt we will have enouch sway.
 
No need to worry guys about trade deals, we are not Norway or Switzerland, the EU chiefs will stamp their feet like toddlers, but at the end of it we are still a 70 million nation, who the EU will want to trade with
 
QuicheFontaine said:
The EU has denied them the visa free travel for now. I think that one extra word is important. I'm pretty sure that that decision has simply been postponed until after the referendum.

Edit:

I dunno, I don't really feel like it's worth continuing with this. I think we're all in agreement that Turkey is a long loooooooong way off joining at the very least. What are we even doing at this point??
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Well, you still seem to think Turkey will somehow enter and that is bad, while it is pretty clear that is not even on the agenda. So having that take a role in a current referendum is not a good thing I think. It should play no role at all, since it is not even an option in the next few decades.

Every decision made is "for now". Things change, that's how the world works.

Tak3n said:
No need to worry guys about trade deals, we are not Norway or Switzerland, the EU chiefs will stamp their feet like toddlers, but at the end of it we are still a 70 million nation, who the EU will want to trade with
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Compared to the UK stamping their feet like little toddlers right now because they don't see the point in open trade and movement with 430 million people?
 
Tak3n said:
No need to worry guys about trade deals, we are not Norway or Switzerland, the EU chiefs will stamp their feet like toddlers, but at the end of it we are still a 70 million nation, who the EU will want to trade with
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I'm assuming this is sarcasm, because otherwise...
 
Kabouter said:
I don't think the UK will necessarily be made an example of, I however also think they won't be getting a deal that is better than what others have gotten because of the dangers of setting a precedent that way.
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Pretty much. They'll get the Norway offer, which is pretty obviously worse than the status quo.
 
Tak3n said:
No need to worry guys about trade deals, we are not Norway or Switzerland, the EU chiefs will stamp their feet like toddlers, but at the end of it we are still a 70 million nation, who the EU will want to trade with
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Nobody is suggesting an EU embargo of Britain.

QuicheFontaine said:
I dunno, I don't really feel like it's worth continuing with this. I think we're all in agreement that Turkey is a long loooooooong way off joining at the very least. What are we even doing at this point??
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Well, some people - in my eyes unreasonably so - believe it a reason to vote to leave the EU. That's what we're doing there I guess.
 
Maledict said:
I'm assuming this is sarcasm, because otherwise...
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No, not al all, the BBC European editor even wrote that they have heard talk that the reality is the UK will be giving a good trade deal

despite the fighting talk, I have also heard back-room whisperings of possibly, maybe, eventually finding some kind of accommodation for the UK, whereby it could pay a financial "penalty" to be part of the single market without being open to EU migration.
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Surely outside the EU, the UK would be an attractive trading partner?
"Absolutely," admitted a high level Brussels source grudgingly.
"And Britain probably would get a good deal in the end but no-one here wants to hand it over easily.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36549883
 
Crab said:
Pretty much. They'll get the Norway offer, which is pretty obviously worse than the status quo.
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if leave wins, there is no way they will accept free movement as part of any deal, simply wont happen...there would be uproar, and rightly so
 
pgtl_10 said:
Why are bookies being cited as a reason that remain will win and not polls?
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Polls are a snapshot of where the mood is at the time they're taken, with no real sense of trends or progression- we don't yet know how Jo Cox's murder is going to play into things, for example.

The bookies have statistical models which can predict how the vote is going to change from here on out, and, given the noted tendency for referenda to swing markedly towards the status quo, can say that it's still more likely for us to Remain than to Leave.
 
Kabouter said:
I don't think the UK will necessarily be made an example of, I however also think they won't be getting a deal that is better than what others have gotten because of the dangers of setting a precedent that way.
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We don't need a better deal. We just need the same deal that others have got. How about the same deal as Canada?
 
Tak3n said:
if leave wins, there is no way they will accept free movement as part of any deal, simply wont happen...there would be uproar, and rightly so
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So all the brexit is essentially a way to keep the EU migrants out?

Because to "trade" with UK, it's almost a given that the UK will need to accept trades agreement from EU, etc.
So the whole point of voting out is to keep the bad bad migrants out?
 
ittoryu said:
So all the brexit is essentially a way to keep the EU migrants out?

Because to "trade" with UK, it's almost a given that the UK will need to accept trades agreement from EU, etc.
So the whole point of voting out is to keep the bad bad migrants out?
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it was always going to come down to immigration wasn't it? does that really surprise anyone? every time you listen to a leave voter, you may occasionally here about the courts, but 99.5% of the time, it will be low wages, taken my job, country is full, NHS can not cope, schools full, doctors full.

that yellow brick road leads to one destination.....and we all know the answer to that
 
QuicheFontaine said:
We don't need a better deal. We just need the same deal that others have got. How about the same deal as Canada?
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Because you are not Canada. Also, which deal are we talking? Because the trade agreement between the EU and Canada is not in effect yet and still requires some countries to sign. See here how difficult it is to get those agreements made, and you can be sure that countries will act more difficult with the UK.

ittoryu said:
So all the brexit is essentially a way to keep the EU migrants out?

Because to "trade" with UK, it's almost a given that the UK will need to accept trades agreement from EU, etc.
So the whole point of voting out is to keep the bad bad migrants out?
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That and the perception of the EU forcing too many regulations and laws on the UK.
 
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