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[Undead]

many of you know I am constantly saying Boris Johnson is the next PM.... would seem also if you follow the money he is a shoe in, incredibly short odds on him

Next Prime Minister



Boris Johnson15/8 or 2.88 in new money
George Osbourne5/1
Michael Gove13/2
Theresa May13/2
Jeremy Corbyn 7/1
Sajid Javid14/1
Stephen Crabb16/1
Priti Patel20/1
Dan Jarvis20/1
Andrea Leadsom25/1
Phillip Hammond28/1
Jeremy Hunt28/1
Owen Paterson40/1
Lisa Nandy40/1
Dominic Raab40/1
Michael Fallon50/1
Liam Fox50/1
Penny Mordaunt50/1
Hilary Benn 50/1
Amber Rudd50/1
Liz Truss50/1
Graham Brady

Not a safe bet for me, I don't see him getting near it if leave doesn't win.

 

[Tak3n]

Not a safe bet for me, I don't see him getting near it if leave doesn't win.

oh 100%, there is no value in that at all, terrible bet...stay well clear, the value bet would be Gove

 

[Ashes]

Even if leave wins, Boris will be disliked by huge numbers of Tories for leading us to brexit.

 

[Tak3n]

so the 'rumour' going around twitter seems to be that a embargoed poll is the reason for the mass movement by the markets (financial and betting)

could be nothing, could be something

 

[SuperEpicMan]

If Cameron did leave, would it bring on a full general election, or would there just be a vote to decide who heads the Tory party and as a result PM?

 

[Walshicus]

The thing with this argument is the EU behaves like a big club closed off to the rest of the world. Subsidies to its members and free trade between them, but little progress on FTAs outside the EU and no scope for member states to act unilaterally. Would Britain be better, long-term, going it alone?

With cheap labour, nothing would stop an independent Britain letting an influx of lowly-paid migrants workers in (except maybe the voters, and understandably so), so this argument doesn't really hold.

Overall I agree that the EU seems like a well-intentioned idea that has proved a failure. I just don't see any evidence that a big, creaking behemoth (and all the over-privileged ivory tower bureaucrats that accompany it) is better than multilateral agreements negotiated individually. I don't think its current form its sustainable (the referendum itself is evidence of that) and regardless of how the vote pans out, I wouldn't be surprised to see it either collapse spectacularly within the next 20-30 years, or see its reach (in terms of depth of integration, and possibly width) increasingly diminish.

The EU is neither a behemoth nor a failure. It's remarkably lean for an organisation that covers nearly half a billion people - less civil servants than many English councils.

It's performed it's job of continually removing obstacles to the completion of the Single Market.

The metrics that judge it a failure are bogus.

 

[liquidtmd]

so the 'rumour' going around twitter seems to be that a embargoed poll is the reason for the mass movement by the markets (financial and betting)

could be nothing, could be something

I imagine there's going to be a lot of this shit going down this week...

 

[Beefy]

Not a safe bet for me, I don't see him getting near it if leave doesn't win.

I still see him getting away with it. Farage will get ripped apart though.

 

[phisheep]

I assume the voting for this will work by them just adding up every single vote for each side rather than some broken constituency/area-based mechanic where each 'area' secures a win for one side etc?

Yeah. It's strokeplay, not matchplay.

 

[RoyalFool]

I've always been told the EU refuses to have an audit of it's finances and that various billions have gone unaccounted for over the years.

Tried googling to find out if it's true or not, but getting mixed messages.

Anybody know any reputable sources?

Currently thinking about voting out, but would like to be proved wrong.

 

[PrivateRyan]

Apologies if this has already been answered here, but what exactly does it take for a referendum to be called?

I'm picturing a scenario where Remain narrowly wins, the anti-EU Tories elect Boris their new leader, Boris becomes PM. What's to stop Boris from then calling another EU referendum?

 

[Ashes]

Scotland will be interesting post referendum. I personally think there will be a shy Brexit boost coming from Scotland.

 

[crayman]

If Cameron did leave, would it bring on a full general election, or would there just be a vote to decide who heads the Tory party and as a result PM?

It would probably be easier to get the government collapsed (Tory Rebels + all non-Tory MPs > Loyal Tories), than it would be to remove Cameron as head of the party as the rebels are less than 50% of the party. I don't actually know what the rules are for triggering a leadership contest though - but I'd bet it can't be triggered by a minority.

If Cameron resigned as head of the party on his own (unlikely) it would not automatically trigger a general election. This situation happened before when Tony Blair stepped down, allowing the 'un-elected' Gordon Brown to be PM.

 

[mehrmantrout]

I've always been told the EU refuses to have an audit of it's finances and that various billions have gone unaccounted for over the years.

Tried googling to find out if it's true or not, but getting mixed messages.

Anybody know any reputable sources?

Currently thinking about voting out, but would like to be proved wrong.

It's true they've never been audited

 

[Jezbollah]

If Cameron did leave, would it bring on a full general election, or would there just be a vote to decide who heads the Tory party and as a result PM?

The latter. Just like when Maggie resigned and Major became leader.

 

[Pandy]

I've always been told the EU refuses to have an audit of it's finances and that various billions have gone unaccounted for over the years.

Tried googling to find out if it's true or not, but getting mixed messages.

Anybody know any reputable sources?

Currently thinking about voting out, but would like to be proved wrong.

https://fullfact.org/europe/did-auditors-sign-eu-budget/

It's true they've never been audited

This is a falsehood.

 

[Dan1984uk]

I've always been told the EU refuses to have an audit of it's finances and that various billions have gone unaccounted for over the years.

Tried googling to find out if it's true or not, but getting mixed messages.

Anybody know any reputable sources?

Currently thinking about voting out, but would like to be proved wrong.

I have heard this mentioned several times as well, I'm leaning towards leave myself.

 

[Walshicus]

https://twitter.com/walshicus/status/744955896875319297

Amirite?

 

[RedSparrows]

I've always been told the EU refuses to have an audit of it's finances and that various billions have gone unaccounted for over the years.

Tried googling to find out if it's true or not, but getting mixed messages.

Anybody know any reputable sources?

Currently thinking about voting out, but would like to be proved wrong.

My thinking on this is fairly simple. Take the audit. The EU is evidently problematic in several ways.

However, I see it as infinitely less problematic than leaving. That vid by that Liverpool prof would be instructive, I reckon.

Edit: prob been posted a billion times, but if you do want to hear some pro-Remain stuff that is actually sensible and authoritative: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USTypBKEd8Y

 

[Walshicus]

It's true they've never been audited

Is it?

 

[phisheep]

I've always been told the EU refuses to have an audit of it's finances and that various billions have gone unaccounted for over the years.

Tried googling to find out if it's true or not, but getting mixed messages.

Anybody know any reputable sources?

Currently thinking about voting out, but would like to be proved wrong.

Not true.

(this is a source that I have found to be reliable on other matters, and it does put the question into the right context too)

 

[Ashes]

I've always been told the EU refuses to have an audit of it's finances and that various billions have gone unaccounted for over the years.

Tried googling to find out if it's true or not, but getting mixed messages.

EU has two audit judgements - one gives the finances a clean bill of health, and the other never passes due to errors.

I think the mistake some people make is to presume errors always means fraud. There probably is fraud, but it's likely miniscule.

 

[Jasup]

I've always been told the EU refuses to have an audit of it's finances and that various billions have gone unaccounted for over the years.

Tried googling to find out if it's true or not, but getting mixed messages.

Anybody know any reputable sources?

Currently thinking about voting out, but would like to be proved wrong.

Well, you could just go and check the European Court of Auditors homepage and read their audit reports yourself.

http://www.eca.europa.eu

 

[Ashes]

Corbyn wasn't too bad.

 

[OverBlood 3]

Farage is getting a grilling on Channel 4.

Arsehole.

 

[Ding-Ding]

oh 100%, there is no value in that at all, terrible bet...stay well clear, the value bet would be Gove

I'd put money on both Javid and May as the others are well and truly toxic to each other.

 

[Real Hero]

Corbyn wasn't too bad.

for such an 'extremist' he has the been the most sensible person on this EU thing

 

[ferrasvansen]

Farage is getting a grilling on Channel 4.

Arsehole.

If leave loses which looks increasingly likely they will hang him out to dry, can't wait to see him being brought down a peg or ten, he is nothing but a tinpot racist and neo fascist. Gove and Johnson despite my dislike of them did well staying clear of that imbecile.

 

[Tak3n]

It would probably be easier to get the government collapsed (Tory Rebels + all non-Tory MPs > Loyal Tories), than it would be to remove Cameron as head of the party as the rebels are less than 50% of the party. I don't actually know what the rules are for triggering a leadership contest though - but I'd bet it can't be triggered by a minority.

If Cameron resigned as head of the party on his own (unlikely) it would not automatically trigger a general election. This situation happened before when Tony Blair stepped down, allowing the 'un-elected' Gordon Brown to be PM.

it can be

only needs 30 MP to write to the committee to trigger a challenge

 

[mclem]

many of you know I am constantly saying Boris Johnson is the next PM.... would seem also if you follow the money he is a shoe in, incredibly short odds on him

Next Prime Minister



Boris Johnson15/8 or 2.88 in new money
George Osbourne5/1
Michael Gove13/2
Theresa May13/2
Jeremy Corbyn 7/1
Sajid Javid14/1
Stephen Crabb16/1
Priti Patel20/1
Dan Jarvis20/1
Andrea Leadsom25/1
Phillip Hammond28/1
Jeremy Hunt28/1
Owen Paterson40/1
Lisa Nandy40/1
Dominic Raab40/1
Michael Fallon50/1
Liam Fox50/1
Penny Mordaunt50/1
Hilary Benn 50/1
Amber Rudd50/1
Liz Truss50/1
Graham Brady

I have to say, for all the criticism of Corbyn, the people who are below him on the odds must feel really shitty.

 

[phisheep]

it can be

only needs 30 MP to write to the committee to trigger a challenge

But it also needs a credible challenger who will beat Cameron in a shoot-out, and if there isn't one, those 30 MPs will not be popular with the party.

 

[avaya]

Jarvis would clear the top of that list if he chose to run.

They must convince him, then again the events of last week probably reaffirmed his decision to want to spend time with his children. Which you can't take away from the man at all.

 

[Jasup]

I'm interested, where does the rumour about EU finances not being audited come from? Sources?

 

[Jezbollah]

https://twitter.com/walshicus/status/744955896875319297

Amirite?

You're not wrong. Given she has 'left', I don't think she should be trying to influence those who decided to stay in this country..

Jarvis would clear the top of that list if he chose to run.

They must convince him, then again the events of last week probably reaffirmed his decision to want to spend time with his children. Which you can't take away from the man at all.

Yep that's the big thing. Proper family man - the main reason he didnt stand in the leadership contest after the election. I really hope he changes his mind.

 

[Ashes]

I have to say, for all the criticism of Corbyn, the people who are below him on the odds must feel really shitty.

There's only three or four people who can be next PM realistically. Three leading candidates from Tories and the leader of the opposition.

 

[liquidtmd]

I'm interested, where does the rumour about EU finances not being audited come from? Sources?

Don't know on that particular posters behalf but I read this

https://fullfact.org/europe/did-auditors-sign-eu-budget/

 

[Ashes]

I'm interested, where does the rumour about EU finances not being audited come from? Sources?

There's always an article in the press every couple of years.

 

[Jasup]

Don't know on that particular posters behalf but I read this

https://fullfact.org/europe/did-auditors-sign-eu-budget/

Yes, I already have that page open as well as the ECA page with the actual audit reports - they are public after all and took only few minutes to find.

However what I have't been able to find in my frankly shallow search is any source where someone claims that EU hasn't been audited. I'm actually very interested, where does it come from?

There's always an article in the press every couple of years.

But what I've found are only articles that the budget is signed off by the auditors, but it implies that there is an audit.

 

[Exterminieren]

You can feel the narrative developing.

 

[phisheep]

However what I have't been able to find in my frankly shallow search is any source where someone claims that EU hasn't been audited. I'm actually very interested, where does it come from?

I think it must be just something enhanced in the telling. It's a shortish step from "audits not signed off" to "no audits".

Send three and fourpence.

 

[IdreamofHIME]

So Sky have just pulled John Oliver this week? What a joke.

 

[JonathanEx]

So Sky have just pulled John Oliver this week? What a joke.

To be fair, it would have been in breach of broadcasting rules without a similar-but-opposite-view programme after.

That said it's great and funny and I'm glad people are watching online. The viewing figures on Atlantic must be tiny anyway.

 

[Tak3n]

So Sky have just pulled John Oliver this week? What a joke.

it was hardly neutral was it, as much as it made me laugh, it was full on trolling the leave camp

 

[phisheep]

it was hardly neutral was it, as much as it made me laugh, it was full on trolling the leave camp

They don't have to neutral, they have to be "duly impartial" - which I don't think precludes trolling outright lies.

 

[Jasup]

I think it must be just something enhanced in the telling. It's a shortish step from "audits not signed off" to "no audits".

Send three and fourpence.

This is what I gather has happened here. What peaked my interest though is that it wasn't just one, but multiple posts in a short timeframe with people stating they've heard the same rumour. It implies that this is a somewhat widespread thing.

We've had these rumours and myths circling around but you can usually find some blogpost or article where they originate from or are echoed in. This is something I've yet to find any such thing. Granted, my searches have been shallow.

 

[phisheep]

This is what I gather has happened here. What peaked my interest though is that it wasn't just one, but multiple posts in a short timeframe with people stating they've heard the same rumour. It implies that this is a somewhat widespread thing.

We've had these rumours and myths circling around but you can usually find some blogpost or article where they originate from or are echoed in. This is something I've yet to find any such thing. Granted, my searches have been a shallow.

That's what they *say*, but probably what they *mean* is "Oh yeah, I think I heard something sort of similar to that once, it must be true".

 

[avaya]

This is what I gather has happened here. What peaked my interest though is that it wasn't just one, but multiple posts in a short timeframe with people stating they've heard the same rumour. It implies that this is a somewhat widespread thing.

We've had these rumours and myths circling around but you can usually find some blogpost or article where they originate from or are echoed in. This is something I've yet to find any such thing. Granted, my searches have been shallow.

Ask yourself if the German government would be happy with people embezzling funds or committing fraud or for that matter ask the many countries that are part of the EFTA would be happy if that were the case. Do you think they would not have looked into this if it were the case?

The idea that that there is some sort of systematic fraud happening in the European budget is insane.

 

[Kathian]

You can feel the narrative developing.

Yep. I hope it's tight just to see the Brexiters turn feral. After the Scottish Referendum there was a sinking feeling - these people will just get angry. They've built themselves into a frenzy over decades and have no real hope or ambition underlying their arguments.

 

[Monkfish]

I've always been told the EU refuses to have an audit of it's finances and that various billions have gone unaccounted for over the years.

Tried googling to find out if it's true or not, but getting mixed messages.

Anybody know any reputable sources?

Currently thinking about voting out, but would like to be proved wrong.

https://fullfact.org/europe/did-auditors-sign-eu-budget/

Sry already posted

 

[QuicheFontaine]

many of you know I am constantly saying Boris Johnson is the next PM.... would seem also if you follow the money he is a shoe in, incredibly short odds on him

Next Prime Minister

Liam Fox 50/1

Ooh, may stick a cheeky dab on that.