Brexit |OT| UK Referendum on EU Membership - 23 June 2016
- Thread starter QuicheFontaine
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killer_clank
Member
A few phone pollsters have noticed that remain voters are harder to find and only show up in numbers the further into the polling process - the first responses always lean heavily remain, leading some to suspect that phone polling will be more accurate in this referendum.
Good call, wanted BrewDog as I have a discount, but it looks like they're selling the perfect Bavarian guest lager to add to my cart.
IdreamofHIME
Member
Where does neutrality come in? It's not a tax paid news programme and it's on a subscriber only channel.
The Last Leg on Channel 4 is produced with tax payer money and is achingly left wing and anti conservative.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
This isn't actually true. YouGOV was pretty middle-of-the-pack. The RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error, smaller is better) for the top pollsters was:
ComRES: 2.6
IpsosMORI: 4.6
YouGOV: 4.8
ICM: 5
Panelbase: 5
Survation: 5.9
Survation had one which where they experimented with the methodology that was even more accurate than ComRES, but they didn't release it until after the election so it shouldn't be counted. The difference between IpsosMORI, YouGOV, ICM, and Panelbase was essentially all MoE stuff; only ComRES performed notably better than the others. Even then, that doesn't help us much as all the major pollsters have changed methodology since then in response to the 2015 mishap, so past record isn't always the best prediction. ICM used to be the 'gold standard', after all, and look at them now.
Oh wow, regardless if we pay taxes in UK?You would not want me
Day 1
Death Penalty back
Trains renationalised
Energy renationalised
NHS only free for UK Citizens (others need insurance)
GP's fines introduced for doing training here then fucking off to Australia
Schools, less holidays, more work....no increase in salary for Teachers either
I will do day 2 later
Just wow.
They also had to point out that they did invite members of Leave to come on the show after they had Corbyn. Honestly, Sky forgot to edit out footage from the House of Commons, ao they probably just can't be arsed watching to check if they need to edit anything out.
JonathanEx
Member
Rules on balance are a lot stronger during election times. Same rules apply now. Just as it's not tax funded doesn't mean it's subject to both Ofcom rules and election law.
Channels can also balance things across their whole coverage, not just one edition.
Good call, wanted BrewDog as I have a discount, but it looks like they're selling the perfect Bavarian guest lager to add to my cart.
Good call, I've still got a couple of cases of Super Bock from Portugal which I think I'll drink on the Friday to celebrate if Remain wins.
Absolutely terrifying that this might really be happening :/
ferrasvansen
Member
Yeah twitter and Facebook are very similar and would lead one to believe leave was miles ahead, they are so much more vocal, I dare say rabid at times. Remain voters are quieter just like the no voters in the indy ref, still think the swing to status quo should make it a decent win for remain, but it's going to be squeaky bum time on Thursday night and Friday morning.
Jezbollah
Member
I have a feeling you may be right there. I think a few probably verge on the side of remain but stay silent or might be undecided but when faced with the ballot paper chose the less riskier Remain option.
It seems strange that I can happily say to you folks on Gaf that I'm a hard Remain, yet I cant feel comfortable to say this to my family..
milanbaros
Member?
I think leave would have to be doing a lot better than that in the polls to have a good shot at winning.
Why not say it to your family or have a conversation with them? They are more likely to listen to you.
YouGov socio-economic split
ABC1s 53-38% to REMAIN
C2DEs 29-52% to LEAVE
A- Higher managerial, administrative, professional e.g. Chief executive, senior civil servant, surgeon
B - Intermediate managerial, administrative, professional e.g. bank manager, teacher
C1- Supervisory, clerical, junior managerial e.g. shop floor supervisor, bank clerk, sales person
C2 - Skilled manual workers e.g. electrician, carpenter
D- Semi-skilled and unskilled manual workers e.g. assembly line worker, refuse collector, messenger
E - Casual labourers, pensioners, unemployed e.g. pensoiners without private pensions and anyone living on basic benefits
ABC1s 53-38% to REMAIN
C2DEs 29-52% to LEAVE
A- Higher managerial, administrative, professional e.g. Chief executive, senior civil servant, surgeon
B - Intermediate managerial, administrative, professional e.g. bank manager, teacher
C1- Supervisory, clerical, junior managerial e.g. shop floor supervisor, bank clerk, sales person
C2 - Skilled manual workers e.g. electrician, carpenter
D- Semi-skilled and unskilled manual workers e.g. assembly line worker, refuse collector, messenger
E - Casual labourers, pensioners, unemployed e.g. pensoiners without private pensions and anyone living on basic benefits
Jezbollah
Member
Unfortunately stubbornness is a significant family trait - most of them have made their minds up and most likely wont pay much attention to any reason
It's strange because I'm half Italian, and my (late) Italian father would have voted for Leave (he disagreed with the closer EU ties going back to '74.
Clarkson & May chime in.
'Terrifying' is absolute hyperbole. Neither Remain or Leave will be disastrous.
-Plasma Reus-
Service guarantees member status
Inform them with facts:
1. Is immigration their problem? Leaving the EU won't fix it. All you'll get is more educated Europeans thinking twice about staying, people will still be coming in. Non European immigration will not be affected by this either.
2. NHS? Leaving the EU means it will be more vulnerable to privatisation.
3. Do they work? EU legislation protects them at work. By giving them paid annual leave, and other things to make employment fair. Leaving the EU means this will no longer be the case.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36582387
Oh, they'll be plenty of blame to go around and you definitely have your share. Which brings me to why I think Brexit is succeeding (at least more than anyone thought possible):
1. The race to the bottom. No. 10 was so quick to go for the loudest and most ridiculous claims that everyone immediately painted every pro-Remain story as bullshit.
2. The assumption that core Labour working-class voters would be pro-Remain simply because they're Labour. And that one lies with Corbyn's totally ineffectual leadership.
But the long-term, overall blame goes to decades of politicians and the media happily using the EU as a whipping boy until the general public thought all they did was make barmy health & safety laws and allow unlimited migration. People have no idea how critical the EU is to so many everyday things we take for granted.
Oh, they'll be plenty of blame to go around and you definitely have your share. Which brings me to why I think Brexit is succeeding (at least more than anyone thought possible):
1. The race to the bottom. No. 10 was so quick to go for the loudest and most ridiculous claims that everyone immediately painted every pro-Remain story as bullshit.
2. The assumption that core Labour working-class voters would be pro-Remain simply because they're Labour. And that one lies with Corbyn's totally ineffectual leadership.
But the long-term, overall blame goes to decades of politicians and the media happily using the EU as a whipping boy until the general public thought all they did was make barmy health & safety laws and allow unlimited migration. People have no idea how critical the EU is to so many everyday things we take for granted.
killer_clank
Member
The lesson of the Scottish Indyref on turnout was that differential turnout was a definite thing - Yes was ahead amongst working class communities in the main but a lot of those people just didn't turn out, hence Glasgow and Dundee having the highest yes votes also had the lowest turnouts in the country.
So Leave can be massively ahead in theoretical working class vote intentions, but if they don't turn out as reliably as the more middle class remainers then leave lose. e
So Leave can be massively ahead in theoretical working class vote intentions, but if they don't turn out as reliably as the more middle class remainers then leave lose. e
Joke post?
ClosingADoor
Member
The economic collapse of '08 was pretty disastrous. Leaving the EU might have similar effects. The country won't burn to the ground or anything, but it will enter an uncertain period of time economically. If you got a nice job, house and savings, nothing to be scared about. If you're unemployed, are just scraping by or maybe not a British citizen, but working there, then yes, it might be a disaster for you.
BumblebeeCody
Member
Glad I'm not the only one thinking the same.
killer_clank
Member
Fairly sure most of them do but YouGov are indeed an exception to that, which seems very odd indeed in a close referendum.
ferrasvansen
Member
Just noticed Ruth Davidson is on the great debate tomorrow night, she is well respected amongst tories and one hell of a debator, I hope Boris brings a nappy with him he is going to need it, she pretty much pulled off miracles for the tories here in Scotland given how unpopular they were.
Yep. Shes actually I think one of the few Conservatives who still know what a Conservative agenda is.
ferrasvansen
Member
Despite my life long Labour leanings, I respect her a lot, straight talking, tough as nails and very clever. I think she will do very well tomorrow night, masterstroke getting her on for remain.
killer_clank
Member
Being Scottish and pretty familiar with Ruth, she will be utterly Ruthless (ahem) in going after Boris. He's not well liked by Scottish Tories at all.
Actually, on a personal level, it is pretty scary for my family, since my parents retired to France and are very dependent currently on the French health service. While that may be unchanged on an exit, there aren't a great deal of guarantees that have been spoken about much, and they're really not in a position where they could cope well with a lot of extra uncertainty over their future.
Nope. If you think either results are 'terrifying' I'm sorry that you've probably bought into the sickly campaigns of either camp.
It's funny, if either remain or leave had had their acts together they could have won this by an absolute landslide.
Sorry but that's patronising rubbish. I, along with several other posters, will almost certainly lose my job if Brexit happens - that's legitimately terrifying.
Similarly, every major economic body in the world saying that Brexit will cause a recession and economic hardship, outside of the Remain campaign, is allowed to be terrifying.
People aren't stupid for being worried about the future should the worlds fifth largest economy decide to remove itself from the worlds largest market. Hell, Brexit is one of Hillarys biggest worries because the economic downturn it could cause could cost her the election - is she also clueless?
I would say its entirely reasonable to suggest that the likely economic consequences of leaving are terrifying.
Psychotext
Member
For me an out vote is terrifying. Ignoring the economic issues (particularly to my wife and I, whose jobs will very much be at risk if we vote out), the lurch to the right and the acceptance of the negativity towards immigrants (and frankly, other weaker members of society too) is utterly terrifying.
I genuinely don't want to be a part of a society with attitudes as regressive and insular as have been displayed by the campaigning of the leave leadership in the last couple of months.
QuicheFontaine
Member
My wife works. She pays taxes in the UK. She needs to pay an NHS surcharge.
So people on the dole long term would get NHS treatment just because they were lucky enough to be born here yet hard working immigrants paying NI and Taxes won't?
Total bullshit.
Vote Leave board member resigns over racist material on her twitter account.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...-board-member-quits-over-anti-muslim-retweets
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...-board-member-quits-over-anti-muslim-retweets
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Actually, none of them do. It's too expensive to get a good sample for such a small area that has so many demographic differences from all the others. It seems unlikely to me NI will be decisive. Given NI's population, a 2-1 vote in favour of Remain in NI increases Remain's UK lead by 0.6%.
This is most amusing. If it were not so hilariously ill informed. I don't need to get my information from either camp. I get my information from my firms counterparties, investors and clients across multiple asset classes. I get my information from those putting their money where the mouth is, looking to earn a return. No one has time for bullshit political theatre.
I guess the ridiculous implied volatility in FX and equities, the moves in LT rate expectations are just scaremongering. Shit is gonna be wild.
Neither side could win this by a mile because most people don't have a fucking clue how most things work (why would they?) and dogwhistles have always worked since the dawn of time.
I swear the more big companies and economists scream that everything will be fucked the more people I see voting Leave wanting to prove them wrong. They should really shut up at this point.
If we really are so buggered if we vote Leave we probably shouldn't be holding a referendum in the first place.
If we really are so buggered if we vote Leave we probably shouldn't be holding a referendum in the first place.
Wouldn't it be more like 1%? But yes I agree with your point.
This has been impressed upon Mr. Cameron by the wider business community many times over.
Exterminieren
Banned
Well, you said it.
D
Deleted member 231381
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