Brexit |OT| UK Referendum on EU Membership - 23 June 2016

Did you vote for the side that is going to win?


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Yeah except those worried about immigration the most are the ones living in the areas which have the least amount of immigrants. Looking at a breakdown of the remain vs. leave map shows that London and cities alone destroy your argument.

I didn't say all immigrants cause problems, just the immigrants who cause problems actually cause problems and they tend to be the poorer ones who are mixed with the poorer of our society.

Large numbers of low skilled migrants are encouraged to go up north where the cost of living is lower.
 
No more debates. This needs to die down so the leave voters with short attention spans forget about it all come voting day.
 
I cannot wait for it to be over, the whole thing has been an embarrassment for our country and has brought out the worst in so many people. Both the campaigns have been shockingly incompetent and have worked half the populace into a frothing rage based on nothing but hot air. That an MP was murdered during this shambles adds another layer of grime to the whole affair.
 
My more well off friend than me just text me and just showed me the flaw in the working class voting to fuck over the middle class in this referendum. He has a telephone interview with a company in Denmark next week just in case. The middle class can literally just leave if their jobs go and just watch the UK if shit is hitting the fan.
 
Yeah except those worried about immigration the most are the ones living in the areas which have the least amount of immigrants. Looking at a breakdown of the remain vs. leave map shows that London and cities alone destroy your argument.

I don't think that is quite a fair analysis. Cities may have the greater number and even the greater proportion of immigrants, but the impact on small towns is much more noticeable. For example, here in my somewhat run-down coastal resort where a lot of the jobs are in hospitality, care homes and the seasonal trade the influx of east europeans into those jobs is very apparent.
 
My more well off friend than me just text me and just showed me the flaw in the working class voting to fuck over the middle class in this referendum. He has a telephone interview with a company in Denmark next week just in case. The middle class can literally just leave if their jobs go and just watch the UK if shit is hitting the fan.


Yep there will be brain drain like never before, I still have a lot of contacts amongst my old microbiology graduates and damn they are thinking of Europe or the USA for future work. It's pretty sad really but I fear we will lose our best and brightest scientists to other countries all in the name of Leave, sigh.
 
My more well off friend than me just text me and just showed me the flaw in the working class voting to fuck over the middle class in this referendum. He has a telephone interview with a company in Denmark next week just in case. The middle class can literally just leave if their jobs go and just watch the UK if shit is hitting the fan.
Does this friend have a family? Kinda hard to relocate two earners and children to another country.
 
Vote leave to be Billy no mates Britain

I usually hate that Polandball stuff, but this one tickled me.

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I don't think that is quite a fair analysis. Cities may have the greater number and even the greater proportion of immigrants, but the impact on small towns is much more noticeable. For example, here in my somewhat run-down coastal resort where a lot of the jobs are in hospitality, care homes and the seasonal trade the influx of east europeans into those jobs is very apparent.

Aye. But would Leave actually, really, change anything? Would these areas magically regenerate, sans immigrants? So on and so forth.
 
Aye. But would Leave actually, really, change anything? Would these areas magically regenerate, sans immigrants? So on and so forth.

Oh no. It certainly wouldn't. It would make an essentially marginal difference in the total availability of jobs. But the perception is already there for the Leave campaign to feed off, which is what they are doing.
 
Yep there will be brain drain like never before, I still have a lot of contacts amongst my old microbiology graduates and damn they are thinking of Europe or the USA for future work. It's pretty sad really but I fear we will lose our best and brightest scientists to other countries all in the name of Leave, sigh.

Come Friday, I'm may be really hoping the missus gets the placement she wants in Iceland for her third year/masters out there. Already had some chats about getting a job in my field and they seem kind of desperate for experienced people who code or analyse web stats.
Does this friend have a family? Kinda hard to relocate two earners and children to another country.

Wife who also has a decent job, but should be able to get something too. Kids make it slightly more difficult, sure, but there's usually enough savings to do it.
 
It's the uncertainty that's the issue, investment and research money etc might not be stopped but it will likely be frozen or postponed until negotiation is finished. Sure it might blow over and we may just renegotiate our membership but how long will that take, that's what's going to cause the damage.
 
IMO somebody from the Leave side is going to be the next conservative leader. It's hard seeing the party activists picking someone from the Remain side even if they are more popular nationally.
 
My biggest worries for Friday morning if Leave wins, in reverse order:

Number 3: tumbling Sterling and financial markets flagging at least a medium-term decline in our fortunes - though that will take a little while to filter through to real life

Number 2: the beginnings of an unpredictable political turmoil that could last for years - though again we'll only get the early rumblings on Friday

But the thing I am least of all looking forward to on Friday is

Number 1: Donald Fucking Trump congratulating Boris Fucking Johnson on a Glorious Victory to #MakeBritainGreatAgain

Gun control, why do we have it?

Vote Remain
 
IMO somebody from the Leave side is going to be the next conservative leader. It's hard seeing the party activists picking someone from the Remain side even if they are more popular nationally.

Even if remain wins? I don't think the stench of losing will be off them in a few years time.

Is it weird that the more confident i am remain will win, the more worried i am leave will win?

Nah, every time I get confident, I get worried that other people might feel the same and get complacent about voting.
 
I'm voting leave, but I think remain will win.

Although most people I know who say they are voting remain don't really care that much where as the leave people are much more passionate about leaving, so I think they are more likely to turn up and vote.
 
I'm voting leave, but I think remain will win.

Although most people I know who say they are voting remain don't really care that much where as the leave people are much more passionate about leaving, so I think they are more likely to turn up and vote.

Polling shows that voting intensity is actually pretty even on both sides, and that remain has ticked upwards over the last week.
 
Even if remain wins? I don't think the stench of losing will be off them in a few years time.

I'm not really sure Conservative MPs or activists will see it like that. It's obviously hard to predict but if Leave loses, especially if it's close, I can see the result being seen as illegitimate by a lot of the party. Things like Osborne's budget etc seem like they could be pretty toxic even after the referendum is over.

Also, Leave can argue they were the "plucky underdogs" and declare a small loss a victory if they wanted to.
 
Polling shows that voting intensity is actually pretty even on both sides, and that remain has ticked upwards over the last week.

Yeah, I just don't talk about it in real life other than people I'm close to. I mean, you start talking about white like that at work and you wither get a high five or a worse work environment. There's one guy who wants to leave in the office though and he won't shut up... He's not popular, to out it mildly.
 
Ruth Davidson isn't going to Westminster - she's the leader of the opposition and she wants to change things in Scotland, not the UK. God forbid she ever becomes First Minister since despite her rhetoric she still is very much a tory. This idea that all good politicians go to westminster is an idea of the past - the real power in Scotland lies in Edinburgh.
 
Polling shows that voting intensity is actually pretty even on both sides, and that remain has ticked upwards over the last week.


Yeah seems to be converging in the last week or so, the last ORB poll actually showed remain voters had overtaken leave on intention to vote was quite a surprise.
 
Yeah seems to be converging in the last week or so, the last ORB poll actually showed remain voters had overtaken leave on intention to vote was quite a surprise.

It is fear, if leave had anything resembling a plan you could relax if it suited you. There's nothing but a slogan the Daleks would like.

TAKE BACK CONTROL!
 

Jesus fucking Christ. His mask has totally slipped this week.

Yes, please quit the cabinet. You will not be missed you little prick.

I'm not really sure Conservative MPs or activists will see it like that. It's obviously hard to predict but if Leave loses, especially if it's close, I can see the result being seen as illegitimate by a lot of the party. Things like Osborne's budget etc seem like they could be pretty toxic even after the referendum is over.

Also, Leave can argue they were the "plucky underdogs" and declare a small loss a victory if they wanted to.

True, I think it's all going to be a mess for them anyway. It's going to be hard for them to recover internally no matter the result.
 
Is there a new poll anywhere on whos going to vote leave or remain

Polls for this week

Understood to be expecting the following #EUref polls:
20/06 ORB
20/06 YouGov
21/06 NatCen
21/06 Survation
23/06 Ipsos Mori
23/06 YouGov

So nothing tomorrow.

ORB have done their final projection too. As per UK Polling Report:

Finally a note about the ORB poll this morning. As regular readers will know, ORB figures have been a little confusing over the campaign – they have published two sets of figures, one for those 10/10 certain to vote, one for all voters. ORB have regarded the latter as their main figure, but the Telegraph have focused on the former. For their final call though ORB have been much clearer and put up an explanation on their site, with final projections of REMAIN 54%, LEAVE 46% – based on those certain to vote, and an assumption that the remaining don’t knows will split 3 to 1 in favour of Remain
 
Yep there will be brain drain like never before, I still have a lot of contacts amongst my old microbiology graduates and damn they are thinking of Europe or the USA for future work. It's pretty sad really but I fear we will lose our best and brightest scientists to other countries all in the name of Leave, sigh.

I'm already looking into Canada in a big way. I can pretty much move my business entirely as it's already done 99% remotely.
 
My friends are almost all leave feel very strongly about it (way more than in a general election, politics has never been discussed before) are quite willing to argue about it and post Hannan videos on Facebook but I wouldn't bet on half them actually voting,

the conspiracy theories have already started "it'll be rigged" "they'll never let us leave anyway"

Meanwhile I suspect the remain voters I know will vote, they are the people that always do. I just hope the polls are right and it's as close as it is because my own straw poll would be 90% leave
 
My guess is that come polling day, there won't be any major difference in Likelihood to Vote come the 2 camps. Might have been true before but I think the past week or so has really pumped up the rhetoric and supporters of each side.

It is worth pointing out that Remain are more likely to be ABC1, who are easily the most likely to vote generally, where as leave are mostly C2DE who generally don't turn out to vote as reliably as ABC1s. Leave somewhat helped on the turnout front by having a large older voter base, who do turn out to vote.
 
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