Brexit |OT| UK Referendum on EU Membership - 23 June 2016

Did you vote for the side that is going to win?

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danthefan said:
If the UK go ahead and leave will this go down as one of the biggest mistakes ever made by a British PM?

Promised the referendum to fend off UKIP in the general election, could do untold damage to the country in the process. Nobody in the British establishment wants this.
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Either it's going to be a mistake, or it turns out to be a great decision.

Or things stay about the same. Who knows.
 
S¡mon;207978504 said:
Either it's going to be a mistake, or it turns out to be a great decision.

Or things stay about the same. Who knows.
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If Gove is right then I fear for experts.
 
Mr. Sam said:
That Wales story is basically a chain e-mail that's somehow found its way into national newspapers. I struggle to believe it for the same reason I struggle to believe Tesco won't serve members of our armed forces because it might offend Muslims, though it's obviously somewhat more believable.
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Yeah, I think it's a fake one.

At least it's a better story than the fake anti-Muslim ones that proliferate.

As for the EU 'favouring migrants', it only 'favours' them in that it allows them. The market then decides, which we'd have within or without the EU.
 
S¡mon;207978504 said:
Either it's going to be a mistake, or it turns out to be a great decision.

Or things stay about the same. Who knows.
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They won't stay the same, as I said before, whichever way the decision goes there will be discord for half the country, the whole referendum has done irreparable damage, it's almost made it ok for people to express their xenophobia.

It won't end Friday, this will rumble on for a good while yet.
 
31GhostsIV said:
6d83cf9fc3f7aca65fc3d997f831414d.jpg
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This is an A* reference.
 
I think it's safe to say Scotland is waiting for England to vote for an exit so they can also severe themselves from the British union. In case people forget, Scotland had a thing where they said if England voted out, they want no part of that type of Britain. It's going to be interesting to see how all the bits fall into place when an exit does happen, wonder how many people will loose their jobs and how many will have tax increases. The first few years are going to be rough
 
Overnight a bunch of leave campaigners slathered probably over a hundred campaign stickers on the fences, streetlights, bins and post boxes right outside the polling station. Classy.

Fingers crossed that whatever we decide tomorrow, it ends up being a smart choice. Every bit of campaigning I've seen for the last month at least has been messy and immature, so I hope the population are able to see through it and make their own decisions. I'm still undecided, but leaning into remain. Gonna go over all the documentation, facts etc. again this evening and make my choice.
 
Tosyn_88 said:
I think it's safe to say Scotland is waiting for England to vote for an exit so they can also severe themselves from the British union. In case people forget, Scotland had a thing where they said if England voted out, they want no part of that type of Britain. It's going to be interesting to see how all the bits fall into place when an exit does happen, wonder how many people will loose their jobs and how many will have tax increases. The first few years are going to be rough
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I never knew us Scots had a single hive mind.

I feel sorry for the rest of my countrymen who share the thoughts that pass through my head on a daily basis.
 
Salvadora said:
Are there any recent poll numbers?

Terrified leave will win.
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Two more polls have been released during today, both showing the race essentially neck and neck.
Survation have released their final EU telephone poll for IG Group (not sure if that’s their final poll for the referendum itself, or just the final one for IG). Topline figures with changes from their weekend poll are are REMAIN 45%(nc), LEAVE 44%(+2), Undecided 11%(-2). Full tabs are here.
Surveymonkey also released new online figures this morning (for those unfamiliar with Surveymonkey as pollsters, I wrote about them here). Their topline figures in the new poll, conducted Friday-Monday are REMAIN 48%, LEAVE 49%. Changes are from their poll last week.
I don’t think any polls are due in tomorrow morning’s papers, most of the remaining final calls will presumably be showing up tomorrow afternoon or evening.
Finally a note about the ORB poll this morning. As regular readers will know, ORB figures have been a little confusing over the campaign – they have published two sets of figures, one for those 10/10 certain to vote, one for all voters. ORB have regarded the latter as their main figure, but the Telegraph have focused on the former. For their final call though ORB have been much clearer and put up an explanation on their site, with final projections of REMAIN 54%, LEAVE 46% – based on those certain to vote, and an assumption that the remaining don’t knows will split 3 to 1 in favour of Remain.
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http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

No polls due today.
 
Tosyn_88 said:
I think it's safe to say Scotland is waiting for England to vote for an exit so they can also severe themselves from the British union. In case people forget, Scotland had a thing where they said if England voted out, they want no part of that type of Britain. It's going to be interesting to see how all the bits fall into place when an exit does happen, wonder how many people will loose their jobs and how many will have tax increases. The first few years are going to be rough
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I don't disagree, but whether Remain or Leave wins the powers that be in Scotland are going to be hell bent on pushing for a second referendum regardless. A Leave vote tomorrow would just accelerate it. Sturgeon isn't going to ever let that 55% - 45% result deter her from asking the question again.

As such I hope tomorrow is 55% Remain - 45% Leave and the Irony bites her on the ass.
 
liquidtmd said:
I don't disagree, but whether Remain or Leave wins the powers that be in Scotland are going to be hell bent on pushing for a second referendum regardless. A Leave vote tomorrow would just accelerate it. Sturgeon isn't going to ever let that 55% - 45% result deter her from asking the question again.
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Sturgeon's going to be careful about when they get a second referendum, and I doubt she'd try for one if she weren't absolutely certain of a leave vote - a second failure would throw Scottish independence off the agenda for a looong time.
 
Heckler456 said:
How would your life be different / better with the UK out of the EU, specifically?
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I not so much as being a benefit as to stopping future issues I will encounter.
Mass immigration of unskilled laborers hits me hard.
I'm finding increasingly more difficult to find work in my sector as the years go on.
I prefer the idea of what Australia has for skilled workers.

I know full well of pro's and con's but I feel I want to take the gamble.
 
liquidtmd said:
I don't disagree, but whether Remain or Leave wins the powers that be in Scotland are going to be hell bent on pushing for a second referendum regardless. A Leave vote tomorrow would just accelerate it. Sturgeon isn't going to ever let that 55% - 45% result deter her from asking the question again.

As such I hope tomorrow is 55% Remain - 45% Leave and the Irony bites her on the ass.
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While there would be a certain poetry to that, I just can't see this being less close than the Scottish Indyref.
 
QuicheFontaine said:
While there would be a certain poetry to that, I just can't see this being less close than the Scottish Indyref.
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It'll be close. I'm still surprised it is this close. Brexiters are essentially using UKIP policies, who got 12% of the vote in the general election. How that has swung to represent 50% is incredible.
 
lifa-cobex said:
I not so much as being a benefit as to stopping future issues I will encounter.
Mass immigration of unskilled laborers hits me hard.
I'm finding increasingly more difficult to find work in my sector as the years go on.
I prefer the idea of what Australia has for skilled workers.

I know full well of pro's and con's but I feel I want to take the gamble.
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And what about the idea that we'll still get mass immigration, except perhaps even less jobs because of a worse economy?
 
Miles Quaritch said:
Who is Kate Hoey and how do you pronounce her surname?
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She's my local MP. Her surname is pronounced HO-EE.

She's a truly awful human being, and the Labour Party has been desperate for years to get rid of her. She's not really labour, she's actually an Ulster unionist who moved over years ago. She was chair of the countryside alliance whilst representing an inner city London authority, and for a good time period had the worse voting record of any labour MP on gay rights despite representing Vauxhall, one of the largest gay communities in the country. She's also, as a person, extremely unpleasant.

There were a lot of rumours that she was going to jump ship to UKIP had they had their expected break out performance in 2015. As that didn't happen, Labour are stuck with her till she retires.
 
the_batman said:
Seems like both sides are being too vague about this.
Leavers say they want to empower brits and Remainers want to keep a stable economy.

How severely would the economy be damaged and for how long?

Is the UK really that dependent on the EU?

Concerning worker's rights, doesn't the EU favor migrants? These migrants would take the jobs of current residents while getting paid less.

Leavers main supporters seem to be ultra nationalists and bigots.

Considering all this, there doesn't seem to be a good enough reason to leave, at least not yet.
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To try and answer your questions:

It's hard to be exact given that there is not a whole lot of past data on leaving the EU to go off, but a not unreasonable estimate would be that due to the damaging effects of leaving the EU, by 2030 the economy would be 6% smaller than it would otherwise be. The average of the predictions made by various institutions suggest that in the immediate future, Brexit would lead to a loss in GDP of between 1-3%. There is also a high likelihood of large numbers of job losses, particularly in industries which are highly dependent on the EU.

This brings me to the UK's dependence on the EU. The EU is by far our biggest export market, with roughly 45% of our exports being to the EU. With it being unclear exactly what our relation to the single market would be in the case of Brexit, a leave vote would pose clear and immediate risk for firms and industries based around the export market. It would also likely raise living costs, as importing EU goods and products would become more expensive.

To break apart the workers rights/migrants issues, the EU through its directives and the European court protects workers rights. Some examples are the Working Time Directive, which stops employers from forcing people to work longer, the safeguarding of the right to 20 days paid holiday, and much maligned health and safety directives which the government would like to remove but which do actually do a lot to ensure a safe working environment.

On the migration issue: The thing to remember is that migrants who come over here and work contribute to the economy and drive economic growth, and that a lot of the time migrants fill gaps in the UK workforce (see the fact that without foreign-born doctors and nurses the NHS would be on the brink of collapse). Specifically, there is no correlation that I have seen presented between levels of immigration and unemployment rate.

Hope that helps :)
 
lifa-cobex said:
I not so much as being a benefit as to stopping future issues I will encounter.
Mass immigration of unskilled laborers hits me hard.
I'm finding increasingly more difficult to find work in my sector as the years go on.
I prefer the idea of what Australia has for skilled workers.

I know full well of pro's and con's but I feel I want to take the gamble.
Click to expand...

There just won't be any future mass migrations on par with the Eastern expansion, at least from the EU. The continent is nearly all in, and as the Eastern states continue to grow more and more people will return there.

I'm hopeful actually that if reason wins out tomorrow that the debate will start to... Go away. Both as demographic effects hit Leave and as migrants start to return home over the next decade.
 
Worth quoting Varoufakis, for any left-wing waverers out there:

Last year I tried, and failed, to convince the EU top brass to behave humanely toward my long-suffering country. Now, I am writing to you with an odd plea: that you stay in this same EU – yes, the one that crushed our Athens spring and has been behaving abominably ever since.

Some will deploy tabloid logic to explain my plea (“Varoufakis wants the UK to stay in to pay for Greece’s bailouts”). Others will accuse me of abandoning the fight for restoring democracy. Yet I trust that your Pythonesque appreciation of paradox will pierce through the seeming contradiction.

The reason I want you to stay in is that voting to leave will not get you “out”. Rather than escaping the EU, Brexit will keep you tied to a Europe that is nastier, sadder and increasingly dangerous to itself, to you, indeed to the rest of the planet.

The masters of the City will never allow a new Boris Johnson government to even think of leaving the EU’s single market, despite Michael Gove’s musings. Which means that all the gadgets sold in your shops will have to abide by standards made in Brussels, your environmental protection rules will be drawn up in Brussels, and market regulation will be (yes you guessed it) determined in Brussels.

So, even after Brexit, the majority of your laws will be written in the same dreary Brussels corridors as now, except you will have no say in their shaping. With your democracy as truncated as it is now, you will remain stuck, albeit less powerful, in a Europe whose fragmentation Brexit will accelerate.

The EU is undoubtedly bureaucratic, opaque and contemptuous of the parliamentarianism that you and I cherish. You may, therefore, conclude that speeding up the EU’s fragmentation is not such a bad idea. Think again! Will its disintegration cause progressive democrats to rise up across Europe, empower their parliaments, usher in the forces of light and hope, and foster harmonious cooperation on the continent? Not likely.

The EU’s fragmentation will divide the continent in at least two parts, the major fault line running down the Rhine and across the Alps. In the north east, deflation will rule, with millions of working poor Germans, Poles and so on becoming unemployed. In the Latin part, the order of the day will be inflation with unemployment. Only political monsters will crawl out of this fault line, spreading xenophobic misanthropy everywhere and ensuring, through competitive devaluations, that you will also be drawn into the ensuing vortex.

This is why I am pleading with you to stay in our terrible EU. Europe’s democrats need you. And you need us. Together we have a chance of reviving democratic sovereignty across Europe. It won’t be easy. But it is worth a try.

When I was student, a close friend who hated parties nevertheless never missed one just so that he would have something to bitch about the day after. Please do not be like him. Please stay in the EU with enthusiasm for our common cause: to take arms against a sea of troubles, and, by opposing, end them.
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liquidtmd said:
I don't disagree, but whether Remain or Leave wins the powers that be in Scotland are going to be hell bent on pushing for a second referendum regardless. A Leave vote tomorrow would just accelerate it. Sturgeon isn't going to ever let that 55% - 45% result deter her from asking the question again.

As such I hope tomorrow is 55% Remain - 45% Leave and the Irony bites her on the ass.
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I'm sure she'd be so sad that we got closer to a second ref with brexit people also claiming it's too close.

Show her!
 
Tak3n said:
A leaflet has been scanned to show remain using Jo Cox murder as a consequence of the leave campaign

these were sent to Brixton residents, but it was posted on a right wing website (for disclosure) lets hope it was not faked

remain2.jpg
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Do we know if this is real yet?
 
Cobalt Izuna said:
And what about the idea that we'll still get mass immigration, except perhaps even less jobs because of a worse economy?
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We will still get mass immigration?
All I would want is a sensible immigration policy.
Basically a Visa.
Being part of the EU, I know this would never happen.
 
Maledict said:
She's my local MP. Her surname is pronounced HO-EE.

She's a truly awful human being, and the Labour Party has been desperate for years to get rid of her. She's not really labour, she's actually an Ulster unionist who moved over years ago. She was chair of the countryside alliance whilst representing an inner city London authority, and for a good time period had the worse voting record of any labour MP on gay rights despite representing Vauxhall, one of the largest gay communities in the country. She's also, as a person, extremely unpleasant.

There were a lot of rumours that she was going to jump ship to UKIP had they had their expected break out performance in 2015. As that didn't happen, Labour are stuck with her till she retires.
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Thanks. I had a feeling it was ho-ee.

So it's entirely possible she did make and distribute that poster? Pretty messed up and should surely be enough to have her removed fekn the party?
 
Coxy100 said:
Do we know if this is real yet?
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Don't think so. It certainly doesn't look like an official pamphlet. Pretty grim if true, but, I have to say, hardly the worst thing about Cox's death that I have seen. Hopkins and co wailing about politicisation of her death is, as you'd expect, grossly ironic.
 
lifa-cobex said:
We will still get mass immigration?
All I would want is a sensible immigration policy.
Basically a Visa.
Being part of the EU, I know this would never happen.
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If we vote leave, immigration will go up before the deadline comes into force.

You'll face even more hardship in the short term as the market floods with unskilled workers wanting to get in before the 2020 deadline.
 
danthefan said:
If the UK go ahead and leave will this go down as one of the biggest mistakes ever made by a British PM?

Promised the referendum to fend off UKIP in the general election, could do untold damage to the country in the process. Nobody in the British establishment wants this.
Click to expand...

Whether we leave or remain, the referendum was a colossally stupid mistake.
 
Coxy100 said:
Do we know if this is real yet?
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It's not official. I live and work in the area, receive all the remain campaign literature, and haven't had this. It doesn't look anything like a formal remain communication, nor does the language mirror anything they have been saying. It's very clearly not a formal piece of literature (and the fact it's been picked up in Lambeth. Apparently the most pro-EU area in the country, also makes me suspicious).

Saying that, to be frank I don't have an objection to what they are saying. A far right extremist murdered an MP against a backdrop where one campaign is literally using nazi propaganda to scare people and whose leader spoke of violence in the streets if people aren't listened to. This is what happens when demagogues are let loose - history has shown us time and time again. This isn't anything new, it's the same
Playbook demagogues have been using for centuries. Whilst the remain campaign has used stupid and silly hyperbole, the leave campaign has gone far further and done much worse.
 
lifa-cobex said:
We will still get mass immigration?
All I would want is a sensible immigration policy.
Basically a Visa.
Being part of the EU, I know this would never happen.
Click to expand...

The majority of immigrations comes from outside the EU anyway.

If your issue with migration is job availability, then you would have to assume that somehow leaving the EU (which won't stop EU migration mind you) would be more than the jobs lost.

The funny thing is that the solution to all of the potential hazards of a Brexit would be to join the EU...

The amount of years it would take for any hypothetical benefit on a Brexit won't be felt for an enormously long time. Oh, and being a tier 3 country for certain consumer products will suck totally.
 
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