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[Moosichu]

I'm all for staying but how on earth can we manage so many people coming in each year?

Is there a solution to that?

The real answer:

The country's future growth is entirely dependent in immigration. Without it we would have a crisis. However, immigration combined with a government that has cut our public services at an unprecedented rate has created a huge infrastructural problem. The solution would be to borrow while rates are low and invest in infrastructure, undo a lot of the tax cuts this government has enacted, and use that on social services, the NHS, and the welfare state.

 

[D4Danger]

The rest of your lifetime is going to be rough for you. The current tensions in Europe are emblematic of the forces that are going to be shaping the rest of this century.

This is a conversation you'll have to get comfortable with.

I should've specified I mean in the coming weeks. It's obviously going to be a major issue in the next election because the current government has failed to get it under control and pretty much lied through their teeth about it in the past few years. My hope is if we stay they might actually take a look at the problems if they can't fall back on just leaving the EU as a solution.

 

[dumbo]

A solution to what? If we want to cope with the influx of migrants, then the government just needs to invest more in housing, infrastructure and public services to cope with rises in population. That might mean borrowing money though, so it won't happen under Osborne.

Well, I guess they could create something like a "migration impacts fund"?
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/aug/06/fund-impact-immigration-scrapped

 

[liquidtmd]

The real answer:

The country's future growth is entirely dependent in immigration. Without it we would have a crisis. However, immigration combined with a government that has cut our public services at an unprecedented rate has created a huge infrastructural problem. The solution would be to borrow while rates are low and invest in infrastructure, undo a lot of the tax cuts this government has enacted, and use that on social services, the NHS, and the welfare state.

Legit question - is this accurate? I thought the birthrate in the UK was high?

 

[sammex]

Argh wish I hadn't looked at the new poll results.

 

[Undead]

Legit question - is this accurate? I thought the birthrate in the UK was high?

Yes, we are an ageing population, people wait longer and longer to have kids and they have less kids than previous generations

 

[Izuna]

Legit question - is this accurate? I thought the birthrate in the UK was high?

Modern history shows this to be relatively true, but that also included slavery so it's a great way to form an opinion if you were studying political science.

 

[Moozo]

Are you saying there is a party that would keep a promise like that ? Lol

No, but it's hard to see anyone else making a worse job of it

 

[Moosichu]

Legit question - is this accurate? I thought the birthrate in the UK was high?

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...pes-rely-on-high-level-of-net-migration-to-uk

 

[Garjon]

Argh wish I hadn't looked at the new poll results.

Online only isn't it? They always tend to lean towards Leave for whatever reason. Still, though, a 7 point lead is worrying. It might be worth putting a bet on Leave actually, if their odds are still good.

 

[avaya]

Legit question - is this accurate? I thought the birthrate in the UK was high?

Yes it is. The U.K. has the normal demographic problem of every major western economy. Same reason no government will ever stop it or cap it.

 

[Chinner]

Despite the tight polls, the ftse 100 has had its third day on the up. Wonder if the market is confident that we'll remain.

 

[Purkake4]

Yes it is. The U.K. has the normal demographic problem of every major western economy. Same reason no government will ever stop it or cap it.

Except for Japan.

 

[avaya]

Except for Japan.

The Japanese, if they don't sort it out are demographically fucked. It's one of the reasons for their slow growth.

 

[ferrasvansen]

Online only isn't it? They always tend to lean towards Leave for whatever reason. Still, though, a 7 point lead is worrying. It might be worth putting a bet on Leave actually, if their odds are still good.

It's not 7% it's 2% they changed methodology.

 

[Purkake4]

The Japanese, if they don't sort it out are demographically fucked. It's one of the reasons for their slow growth.

I don't disagree.

 

[PJV3]

Despite the tight polls, the ftse 100 has had its third day on the up. Wonder if the market is confident that we'll remain.

Nah.
If we vote leave then the lizard people will finally declare the new world order.

 

[Uzzy]

Well, I guess they could create something like a "migration impacts fund"?
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/aug/06/fund-impact-immigration-scrapped

That'd just be too sensible though.

This paragraph in that article stood out to me.

A spokesman said: "Ending the ineffective migration impacts fund will save £16.25m this year. We believe the impacts of migration are better addressed through controlling immigration, which is why the government will reduce the level of net migration back down to the levels of the 1990s – tens of thousands each year, not hundreds of thousands."

If we do vote for Brexit, then I've a feeling that Cameron's pledge to cut the immigration numbers will be viewed as one of the major reasons for that. That pledge, and the complete inability of the Government to live up to it, has completely killed any faith people had in the Government controlling immigration within the EU.

 

[Chinner]

Nah.
If we vote leave then the lizard people will finally declare the new world order.

Please boris, save us from the lizard people. We shall not go quietly into that brown night.

#independenceday

 

[avaya]

Despite the tight polls, the ftse 100 has had its third day on the up. Wonder if the market is confident that we'll remain.

They are confident in status quo effect. I have confidence in that, people are making emotional decisions on the leave side.

 

[Garjon]

It's not 7% it's 2% they changed methodology.

What did they change?

 

[Chinner]

They are confident in status quo effect. I have confidence in that, people are making emotional decisions on the leave side.

True that, I'm just surprised by the amount of confidence displayed. If Leave win then Friday will be a very messy day for investors.

 

[ferrasvansen]

Today's polls...

EU referendum poll:
Remain: 41% (+1)
Leave: 43% (-4)
(via TNS, online / 16 - 22 Jun)

EU referendum poll:
Remain: 44% (-)
Leave: 45% (+1)
(via Opinium, online / 20 - 22 Jun)

EU referendum poll:
Remain: 50% (+2)
Leave: 47% (-2)
(via SurveyMonkey, online)

Still two more at 10pm to go.

 

[cyberheater]

Nah.
If we vote leave then the lizard people will finally declare the new world order.

I for one welcome our new lizard overlords.

 

[ferrasvansen]

What did they change?

In previous polls they only counted the ones who were 10/10 likely to vote hence how the general election polling was so shite.

 

[Thejackburton]

He has messed up frankly, a lot of Labour voters expected him to be more vocal in support of the EU, but he has been lacklustre and the i dont like the EU but we need it routine was laughable.

I don't see why it is laughable. The guy simply doesn't like the eu. He sees the faults and privately wants to leave the Eu, but because he's leader of the Labour Party he is being bullied into wanting to remain.

He disliked the eu before he was elected leader, maybe people shouldn't have voted for him then...

Also this utter nonsense that if leave wins, workers rights will fly out of the window is a joke. The Tory hate as being an extreme right wing party is comical. If the Tories try to implement us style workers rights they'd be out of power just as fast as gaffers make these ridiculous claims.

 

[dalin80]

The Japanese, if they don't sort it out are demographically fucked. It's one of the reasons for their slow growth.

A slow growth that is driven by what workers they have doing crazy fucking hours and work life that cannot survive much longer. A friend of mine did her apprenticeship there and office workers working for several weeks straight without going home wasn't uncommon.

The Japanese cultural/financial implosion is going to be painful.

 

[Syder]

I'm so confident of a Remain result that I'll change my avatar to Farrage's shit-eating grin if Leave wins.

 

[phisheep]

Strolled up the High Street today to pay a bundle of cash into the bank.

There seems to be some curious arrangement between campaigners. All the Remain lot are up at the north end near Argos with, so far as I can tell, the Greens and Tories taking turns (and no sign at all of Labour). All looks very organised, with matching banners and sashes and lots of people and so on.

Then there's about a 200 yard buffer zone that is totally campaigner-free, then at the south is the Leave brigade. Today that consisted of one bloke in shirtsleeves handing out leaflets who vanished indoors at the first sign of rain, to be replaced by a gazebo housing the Cat Protection League which I did not donate to because I am allergic to cats. Shame, as I was looking forward to chatting with him.

I'm guessing the difference in numbers reflects that Leave are comfortably ahead here so it is Remain who have the bigger job to do.

Sounds like a Leaver to me.

Sounds about right.

Seems to me that in the main those voting Remain are quite happy to chat while the more typical response from Leave is "I'm voting Leave but that's all I'm saying".

I still have yet to see or hear a persuasive argument for leave (and I don't mean one that necessarily persuades me, just one that is persuasive enough to be worth listening too). (Except for Dan Hannan of course and he is rather a special case but he comes with a load of baggage as well in the rest of his political make-up, so is definitely a case of "handle with care").

 

[killer_clank]

only counting 10/10 likelihood to vote doesn't necessarily seem like the best idea.

I still maintain that this idea that leave voters are inherently far more likely to turn out is pretty flawed.

 

[OverBlood 3]

During the 'great debate' the Leave camp even refused to say that they would bring immigrant numbers down or even say what would be a fair number because they know this country would be fucked without it.

 

[Kabouter]

I'm so confident of a Remain result that I'll change my avatar to Farrage's shit-eating grin if Leave wins.

Why do you want to make a leave vote even more painful for people?

 

[ferrasvansen]

only counting 10/10 likelihood to vote doesn't necessarily seem like the best idea.

I still maintain that this idea that leave voters are inherently far more likely to turn out is pretty flawed.

It's really weird we could have a situation after tonight's polls were almost all online polls say leave and almost all phone polls say remain, it's a bit strange and I will be interested to see which ends up correct.

 

[Trumpets]

Legit question - is this accurate? I thought the birthrate in the UK was high?

Up to a point. You need some immigrants to fill gaps in the workforce, skilled and unskilled, but it's got to the point where the population is growing at a rate of an extra millon every three years. This puts a strain on housing, schools, hospitals, infrastructure etc.

And then when these people get older you'll need to bring even more people in to compensate, and you end up with a sort of generational Ponzi scheme, completely unsustainable in a country which is already densely populated, with not enough houses.

 

[killer_clank]

It's really weird we could have a situation after tonight's polls were almost all online polls say leave and almost all phone polls say remain, it's a bit strange and I will be interested to see which ends up correct.

If they only have 1 or 2 points between them and show about 10 percent or more undecided then it really is basically impossible to call since we don't really know what the undecideds will do.

 

[jufonuk]

to all the Churchill quoters:

from the BBC site:

icholas Soames: Churchill wouldn't have gambled with Brexit

BBC News Channel
Posted at
17:07
Nicholas Soames
BBC
The grandson of Sir Winston Churchill, Britain's prime minister during the Second World War, says he does not believe he would have wanted the nation to cut its links with a European Union of 500 million people and 28 countries "and go off alone".

Sir Nicholas Soames, the Conservative former defence minister and Remain campaigner, made the comments as he urged people to consider "if it's a good idea to take this tremendous gamble" with the security and prosperity of their country and communities by voting to Leave.

He says the referendum campaign has not been very happy because "colleague has been set against colleague".

But he says his message to voters is: "I don't think this is a time to leave the EU and I would urge them to vote Remain."

 

[avaya]

True that, I'm just surprised by the amount of confidence displayed. If Leave win then Friday will be a very messy day for investors.

Should of said I have no confidence in that. I'm fully prepared for the shit show on Friday.

Also get to find out if it's NY, Paris, Geneva or P45 sometime on Friday if it's a leave. Super fun.

A slow growth that is driven by what workers they have doing crazy fucking hours and work life that cannot survive much longer. A friend of mine did her apprenticeship there and office workers working for several weeks straight without going home wasn't uncommon.

The Japanese cultural/financial implosion is going to be painful.

i couldn't believe it when I heard those stories the first time but it no longer surprises me. Desperate stuff over there.

 

[dalin80]

Also this utter nonsense that if leave wins, workers rights will fly out of the window is a joke. The Tory hate as being an extreme right wing party is comical. If the Tories try to implement us style workers rights they'd be out of power just as fast as gaffers make these ridiculous claims.

It's already incredibly easy to ditch workers, Cadbury for instance moved a factory to Poland in a move that was paid for by a EU grant. One of dozens that has seen UK workforces dumped and production of many items moved to Eastern Europe.

Just be glad 'Leave' decided to single-mindedly focus on immigration and not on the employment impacts that have been paid for by EU grants, that would have been a serious problem to argue against.

 

[jufonuk]

Should of said I have no confidence in that. I'm fully prepared for the shit show on Friday.

Also get to find out if it's NY, Paris, Geneva or P45 sometime on Friday if it's a leave. Super fun.



i couldn't believe it when I heard those stories the first time but it no longer surprises me. Desperate stuff over there.

P45 why?

 

[Hasney]

I think the regional results will make very interesting reading. My area of Leeds has had no real official campaigning, I've had the remain flyer everybody got and something from Leave that I believe was nationwide and that's it. The walk home got my spirits up as the stickers in windows and on trees in the gardens were either Remain or nothing at all, passed about 15 in a 20 minute walk.

I am in a working class/student mixed-race area and I know it's different just in different parts of this city, but I think overall we'll go leave and from some of your guys stories, it's totally the opposite experience.

 

[CS_Dan]

Should of said I have no confidence in that. I'm fully prepared for the shit show on Friday.

Also get to find out if it's NY, Paris, Geneva or P45 sometime on Friday if it's a leave. Super fun.

Yup. I work in a largely EU funded HCI research lab. If we leave it won't be pretty.

 

[Maledict]

Strolled up the High Street today to pay a bundle of cash into the bank.

There seems to be some curious arrangement between campaigners. All the Remain lot are up at the north end near Argos with, so far as I can tell, the Greens and Tories taking turns (and no sign at all of Labour). All looks very organised, with matching banners and sashes and lots of people and so on.

Then there's about a 200 yard buffer zone that is totally campaigner-free, then at the south is the Leave brigade. Today that consisted of one bloke in shirtsleeves handing out leaflets who vanished indoors at the first sign of rain, to be replaced by a gazebo housing the Cat Protection League which I did not donate to because I am allergic to cats. Shame, as I was looking forward to chatting with him.

I'm guessing the difference in numbers reflects that Leave are comfortably ahead here so it is Remain who have the bigger job to do.



Sounds about right.

Seems to me that in the main those voting Remain are quite happy to chat while the more typical response from Leave is "I'm voting Leave but that's all I'm saying".

I still have yet to see or hear a persuasive argument for leave (and I don't mean one that necessarily persuades me, just one that is persuasive enough to be worth listening too). (Except for Dan Hannan of course and he is rather a special case but he comes with a load of baggage as well in the rest of his political make-up, so is definitely a case of "handle with care").

According to every report Remain has a *much* stronger ground game than leave. Don't know whether it's because a lot of experienced politicos are running it, but their campaigning is reckoned to be far stronger on the ground.

 

[avaya]

P45 why?

No one will get em in one go but they are not taking all teams of the office needs to move. So you'll be put on risk. Seniors already told today.

 

[Mr Cola]

An incredible speech from an Oxford Union debate on Brexit (6/20/16):

Video: EU Debate - Oxford Union. Daniel Hannan MEP

I do love seeing incredibly articulate speakers, no notes either, it certainly adds to the point when someone can come across as knowing what they are talking about without resorting to catchphrases and half baked ideas.

Genuinely no idea who to vote for, im at the point where I dont think I will vote because I just cant get into a side with my whole heart.

Also why the fuck is this guy not on the main stage? Is he too articulate and measured for the "Lets trick the working class into thinking immigrants being bad" rhetoric?

 

[jufonuk]

No one will get em in one go but they are not taking all teams of the office needs to move. So you'll be put on risk. Seniors already told today.

this is related to the Brexit vote?

 

[Hasney]

Should of said I have no confidence in that. I'm fully prepared for the shit show on Friday.

Also get to find out if it's NY, Paris, Geneva or P45 sometime on Friday if it's a leave. Super fun.

A friend of mine is in the same position. Works on the corporate side for a large outsourcer that is going change it's HQ location somewhere in Europe. It's funny, they already have call centres in India and Poland but have some clients that want UK workers, so the call centre operation would still have a presence in this country, but the call centre would be on the same level as the Indian and Polish ones.

EDIT: Funny as in what that company would see the UK as, not funny in terms of him possibly losing his job.

 

[spuckthew]

Bought a bunch of USD today while the rate was decent as I'm going on holiday next week and don't want to risk getting screwed if GBP collapses on Friday.

If Remain wins the rate will likely only be marginally better than it is today so it's worth doing.

 

[phisheep]

According to every report Remain has a *much* stronger ground game than leave. Don't know whether it's because a lot of experienced politicos are running it, but their campaigning is reckoned to be far stronger on the ground.

Leave has the better leafleting though. I've had three or four Leave leaflets and only the Government one for Remain.

A friend of mine is in the same position. Works on the corporate side for a large outsourcer that is going change it's HQ location somewhere in Europe. It's funny, they already have call centres in India and Poland but have some clients that want UK workers, so the call centre operation would still have a presence in this country, but the call centre would be on the same level as the Indian and Polish ones.

Vote Leave so we can convert 300 corporate HQ buildings into affordable housing!

Joking.

I hope.

 

[Erevador]

The Japanese, if they don't sort it out are demographically fucked. It's one of the reasons for their slow growth.

A slow growth that is driven by what workers they have doing crazy fucking hours and work life that cannot survive much longer. A friend of mine did her apprenticeship there and office workers working for several weeks straight without going home wasn't uncommon.

The Japanese cultural/financial implosion is going to be painful.

Don't count out the Japanese just yet, I'd argue the demographic component is often badly overstated.

Japan since the late 80s, and China now, are reaching the limits of what can be gleaned from copying Western innovation. The tendency in these highly productive Asian countries has been to catch up to the West with staggering speed, and then run into inevitable stagnation.

China is starting to invest more and more in a larger diversity of businesses and to think more seriously about innovation. Was interested to see that Peter Thiel's book Zero to One (a brilliant manifesto for American style innovation) is incredibly popular in China. I think we will see similar behavior from the very shrewd business culture in Japan.

I think the major forces in Asia are more stable than they might seem, and have been experiencing a long term correction after the over-enthusiasm generated by the massive growth that results from an overnight transition into a modern industrial economy.

In ten years I do not believe that cries of doom for Japan will have been validated.

And yes, this post had nothing to do with Brexit, but the topic is too interesting to resist.

 

[Anth1888]

Same I'm looking forward to the regional voting. Here in Glasgow I've seen a few leave posters and little for Remain. But because this is a traditional industrial City but one of the few regions to Vote Yes I wonder how close it will be here especially with the feelings of immigrant, low skilled jobs etc but the City is reinventing itself as the Entertainment Capital and the affluent West End.

It's been noted that Scotland will probably back Remain on the whole but I reckon Leave may surprise up here.