Support NeoGAF

[Anth1888]

Also don't know of this has been discussed? Sky has commissioned an "on the day" poll from YouGov, so that will give the pundits something to talk about once it is published at 10pm.

Probably bullshit though, but might be used for a guesstimate

 

[SymbiantXenos]

Finally realised he's a vote loser? Jesus, took him long enough.

EDIT: He's cited family reasons. Hopefully everyone is OK if that is the case.

Yes of course. Hope everyone is ok.

 

[Hasney]

Boris Johnson has dismissed the risk of a stock market crash on Friday if the UK votes to leave the European Union.

In an interview with the Press Association, he said: "This is all part of the attempt to spook people. I think actually it will be very calm. Everybody has more or less priced in either outcome.

"The stock market, the pound, depend on the strength of the UK economy and I think that will continue to grow."

Well that's a bold faced lie. Share prices and the currency strength are determined by stability as much as anything. I do believe that they can both recover eventually, how long, I'm not sure, but a lot of value will be slashed off both the stock market and the currency if leave comes in on Friday.

 

[avaya]

Also don't know of this has been discussed? Sky has commissioned an "on the day" poll from YouGov, so that will give the pundits something to talk about once it is published at 10pm.

Probably bullshit though, but might be used for a guesstimate

Movement in fx and ftse futures will be better guide.

 

[phisheep]

He does have a point about big companies liking regulations, which few people seem to understand. He's a little bit wrong about the reason though. It's generally because regulatory compliance costs help big EU companies (who can afford it and have local knowledge) keep out their Chinese/Indian competitors (who can't afford it and/or lack staff who can understand it). Excessive regulation can have a negative effect on small EU companies, but a lack of regulation would be even worse for small companies since they don't have the marketing 'brand' power to beat cheap foreign imports.

This point is right on the money.

For example as I am in the jewellery trade I have to comply with some regulations about nickel content and cadmium release rate of components intended for use on bare skin. These are, because of allergies and so on, entirely sensible regulations - but the cost of compliance can be very burdensome for small traders.

I am lucky in that I have a very sensitive nickel-detector in the shape of my allergic wife, but buggered if I know anything about testing for the release rate of cadmium. Large companies can handle this through direct management of the supply chain and/or by testing, I do not have the time or clout for the first or the money for the second (testing even samples of everything I bring in would wipe out my entire profit). So I rely on careful selection of overseas suppliers - those that have their own testing labs and that have a local retail presence in the EU so that if I am sued I can finger them too. Many others don't bother - I am forever sending nickel-containing things back to suppliers who are not complying. The Americans are worst, because they have taken to putting nickel into nearly everything to make it more shiny.

 

[Orbis]

Also don't know of this has been discussed? Sky has commissioned an "on the day" poll from YouGov, so that will give the pundits something to talk about once it is published at 10pm.

Probably bullshit though, but might be used for a guesstimate

Probably not good enough, unless it's a poll conducted between 21:00 and 22:00 and asks "What did you vote today?" with some clever sample selection. Even then it's just too hard to project nationally until we have a large number of actual results.

 

[milanbaros]

Movement in fx and ftse futures will be better guide.

Yep. The FTSE should indicate the way things are going even from opening.

 

[Macho Madness]

Well that's a bold faced lie. Share prices and the currency strength are determined by stability as much as anything. I do believe that they can both recover eventually, how long, I'm not sure, but a lot of value will be slashed off both the stock market and the currency if leave comes in on Friday.

The world's markets panicked last week when Leave got a boost in the polls. There would be a massive sell-off if Leave wins.

 

[Anth1888]

Probably not good enough, unless it's a poll conducted between 21:00 and 22:00 and asks "What did you vote today?" with some clever sample selection. Even then it's just too hard to project nationally until we have a large number of actual results.

For sure, it's just there to give the pundits something to talk about for four hours before we get results! Hopefully BBC/Sky have share indicators as part of their coverage

 

[avaya]

Well that's a bold faced lie. Share prices and the currency strength are determined by stability as much as anything. I do believe that they can both recover eventually, how long, I'm not sure, but a lot of value will be slashed off both the stock market and the currency if leave comes in on Friday.

It's so calm and priced in that we are being told to be on the desk by 5am latest.

 

[Orbis]

For sure, it's just there to give the pundits something to talk about for four hours before we get results! Hopefully BBC/Sky have share indicators as part of their coverage

Hopefully.

Spoiler

 

[ClosingADoor]

It's so calm and priced in that we are being told to be on the desk by 5am latest.

Seriously, how can you price in two totally opposite outcomes. Either the UK leaves, with the market going down a lot, or they stay - which is priced in a bit at the moment, but will still see a boost the day after I think.

 

[RedSparrows]

but Britain was always closer to America than continental Europe wasn't it?

I'd say no. Wilde's (wasn't it?) 'two nations divided by a common language' is very apt. Compare most, say, common political values/attitudes on this side of the Atlantic to the other. NA is wildly different to GB, Holland, Germany etc, imo.

I look at the USSR and how it swallowed up countries like Ukraine up...destroying any sort of notion of culture for these countries to feet the soviet machine

now the EU might not be the USSR, as a direct comparison...but you can't say people arn't worry about superstates

It's far too simplistic to see the EU as a superstate as it currently is, let alone then making it an easy comparison to the USSR. The historical, political, social and cultural origin points of the EU and the USSR are light-years apart, even if Brussels was a supra-national government with sovereign power. Which it isn't. By a longshot.

'EUSSR' is (not getting at you here: this phrase is used by certain people in Britain) the calling card of somebody who wilfully misunderstands history, and to be quite frank, insults the victims of Soviet communism.

Edit: final edit, why/how the hell aren't European nations not allowed to have 'distinctive cultures'?!

wat

 

[Tak3n]

Hold on to your hats people

Just saw this

Tonight’s final ComRes phone poll being described as "interesting" whatever that means

 

[Tyaren]

It just seems like European countries are the ones that arn't allowed to have distinctive cultures while other countries around the world are, like China, Japan etc.

Most Brits in here wouldn't know but the very motto of the European Union is actually:
"United in diversity"

"United in diversity", the motto of the European Union, first came into use in 2000. It signifies how Europeans have come together, in the form of the EU, to work for peace and prosperity, while at the same time being enriched by the continent's many different cultures, traditions and languages.
http://europa.eu/about-eu/basic-information/symbols/motto/index_en.htm

If anything the EU is supporting and funding thousands of smaller and bigger cultural projects in all of it's member states each year. One of the biggest is designating a Capital of Culture each year. Preparing a European Capital of Culture can be an opportunity for the city to generate considerable cultural, social and economic benefits and it can help foster urban regeneration, change the city's image and raise its visibility and profile on an international scale.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Capital_of_Culture

 

[SymbiantXenos]

50-50

The referendum will be decided on a penalty shoot out.

 

[Hasney]

50-50

The referendum will be decided on a penalty shoot out.

Wait, if both sides are represented by England in terms of a majority of people, can they both lose a penalty shoot out?

It's so calm and priced in that we are being told to be on the desk by 5am latest.

Yeah, and I bet a lot will be there at least a bit earlier...

If we remain and the pound recovers a decent amount on Friday, I'm going on an Amazon.fr/.de shopping spree.

 

[danowat]

50-50

The referendum will be decided on a penalty shoot out.

Is Stuart Pearce still available?

 

[SymbiantXenos]

Is Stuart Pearce still available?

Won't matter.

Vote leaves final pen taker is Boris.

 

[Tak3n]

It's so calm and priced in that we are being told to be on the desk by 5am latest.

I dont know markets at all, but I read in the paper a couple of days ago that Osbourne refused to rule out suspending trading if leave win

is that not the case?

 

[Chinner]

This is my prediction if leave wins

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=206432619&postcount=2006

 

[Hasney]

Won't matter.

Vote leaves final pen taker is Boris.

Who may as well be Pearce with tackles like this

I dont know markets at all, but I read in the paper a couple of days ago that Osbourne refused to rule out suspending trading if leave win

is that not the case?

He could. It would probably do more harm than good though, so it would just be another fuck you threat.

 

[danowat]

Who may as well be Pearce with tackles like this

This is rugger isn't it Tarquin?

 

[SymbiantXenos]

Who may as well be Pearce with tackles like this

Haha!

Hopefully no young children in the vicinity to take the tackle.

 

[BumblebeeCody]

50-50

The referendum will be decided on a penalty shoot out.

Riots in streets. TVs stolen because Government took away my JSA. Jeremy Kyle new PM

 

[ClosingADoor]

I dont know markets at all, but I read in the paper a couple of days ago that Osbourne refused to rule out suspending trading if leave win

is that not the case?

Suspending trading is not a good thing. It might stop an overreaction for a bit, but when trading resumes it probably still goes down. China earlier this year did multiple trading stops for example, the day after the market still went down. You don't create trust by forcing a trading stop, you just buy some time.

 

[Tak3n]

Riots in streets. TVs stolen because Government took away my JSA. Jeremy Kyle new PM

Stocks in paternity tests go through the roof

 

[avaya]

I dont know markets at all, but I read in the paper a couple of days ago that Osbourne refused to rule out suspending trading if leave win

is that not the case?

LSE would stop it anyway well before that point, with government giving them warning about any major statements etc.

 

[Tak3n]

Suspending trading is not a good thing. It might stop an overreaction for a bit, but when trading resumes it probably still goes down. China earlier this year did multiple trading stops for example, the day after the market still went down. You don't create trust by forcing a trading stop, you just buy some time.

you think he will, or was he just being Osbourne (with his I control the world crap)

 

[Macho Madness]

Trading stops are to mitigate massive market damage. Only used in extreme situations generally.

 

[Chinner]

Suspending trading is not a good thing. It might stop an overreaction for a bit, but when trading resumes it probably still goes down. China earlier this year did multiple trading stops for example, the day after the market still went down. You don't create trust by forcing a trading stop, you just buy some time.

The market is self balancing when it comes to share price = company value. If the market perceives it to be worth less, it's going to drop regardless. Suspending trading will just stall it, and also create investor panic.

It'll go tits up regardless.

 

[ClosingADoor]

you think he will, or was he just being Osbourne (with his I control the world crap)

If stuff goes out of control, he might. If everyone starts selling, this can create even more fear, stock goes lower, more people sell. And you don't want to end up with a -20% on the market or some crazy stuff in one day. Now I don't know what is realistic here and what the limit would be for the government to step in and stop the trading.

 

[phisheep]

you think he will, or was he just being Osbourne (with his I control the world crap)

He was just being sensible. When faced with the unknown it's a very good idea to not go around ruling things out in advance.

 

[Chinner]

If stuff goes out of control, he might. If everyone starts selling, this can create even more fear, stock goes lower, more people sell. And you don't want to end op with a -20% on the market or some crazy stuff. Now I don't know what is realistic here and what the limit would be for the government to step in and stop the trading.

I'm not even sure what we're going to see on Friday if Leave wins. Tempted to say somewhere between a 10 - 15% drop considering normal market movement.

 

[milanbaros]

you think he will, or was he just being Osbourne (with his I control the world crap)

I don't think it would happen. I think they would only close when there is mass confusion to stop markets going crazy. If leave wins then the markets will drop and closing won't do anything, just delay it.

 

[ClosingADoor]

I'm not even sure what we're going to see on Friday if Leave wins. Tempted to say somewhere between a 10 - 15% drop considering normal market movement.

Considering stuff dropped 7% last week - if I see this right - over even the fear that Britain might leave, it could be even worse.

I'm not in the British stock market, just some German and Dutch stuff, so I hope it won't be impacted at the same level. We'll see.

Edit: http://www.digitallook.com/news/new...p-below-5000-in-brexit-says-ubs--1219263.html

UBS says 5000 is possible, so that would mean a 20% drop.

 

[avaya]

More interesting thing will be GBPUSD and GBPEUR. 15%+ depreciation expected. 1 GBP = 1 EUR parity at an extreme end.

With banks tightening lending indications that all of that will passthrough into prices.

Would this drive stagflation?

I can not believe we are thinking about voluntary stagflation.

 

[jufonuk]

More interesting thing will be GBPUSD and GBPEUR. 15%+ depreciation expected. 1 GBP = 1 EUR parity at an extreme end.

With banks tightening lending indications that all of that will passthrough into prices.

Would this drive stagflation?

I can not believe we are thinking about voluntary stagflation.

stagflation? what is that

sure the leave people will still declare it's the EU fault and bloody immigrants

 

[JonathanEx]

Paxman on C4 now with the 'oh fuck you bastards' debate with 150 people.

 

[CCS]

stagflation? what is that

sure the leave people will still declare it's the EU fault and bloody immigrants

Stagnation, high unemployment and inflation. Basically prices going up but no economic growth.

 

[Audioboxer]

Not looking forward to another "all nighter", but it's just damn hard to stay away from the TV set after the votes close.

I'm hedging my bets on remain winning at around 55%, like the Scottish referendum.

 

[NekoFever]

stagflation? what is that

sure the leave people will still declare it's the EU fault and bloody immigrants

High inflation with high unemployment and low growth. A problem because the usual methods to reduce inflation can also increase unemployment and will slow growth further.

 

[Maledict]

Part of me is curious to see how Boris and Gove would react should we vote to leave and the stock market absolutely fucking craters on Friday. I'm sure they could explain away how they lied throughout the campaign on the impacts, but would be curious to see how.

 

[Lego Boss]

50-50

The referendum will be decided on a penalty shoot out.

England will lose as Cameron sees BloJo in the crowd and realises that he owes him a fiver for fucking a pig.

Sturgeon will score an OG and not qualify for the final tournament which features 27 teams and Germany who always win in the end.

 

[Kathian]

Part of me is curious to see how Boris and Gove would react should we vote to leave and the stock market absolutely fucking craters on Friday. I'm sure they could explain away how they lied throughout the campaign on the impacts, but would be curious to see how.

Its the one good thing that would come of their leaving.

 

[Billy_Pilgrim]

Went out again at six.

Horrorshow, in the labourest territory that ever laboured.

With a shadow cabinet minister.

Nobody knew what Labour's position was.

They took pleasure in being racist.

Labour voters.

 

[Tak3n]

Funny poster to lighten the mood

 

[Vanguard]

Part of me is curious to see how Boris and Gove would react should we vote to leave and the stock market absolutely fucking craters on Friday. I'm sure they could explain away how they lied throughout the campaign on the impacts, but would be curious to see how.

Boris will say sorry apparently... haha http://www.theguardian.com/politics...-make-tv-apology-if-brexit-triggers-recession

 

[ferrasvansen]

Went out again at six.

Horrorshow, in the labourest territory that ever laboured.

With a shadow cabinet minister.

Nobody knew what Labour's position was.

They took pleasure in being racist.

Labour voters.

Welcome to Britain in 2016, country is unrecognisable and only going to get worse especially when the racists etc start to wonder why things won't improve overnight... sigh.

 

[ferrasvansen]

Part of me is curious to see how Boris and Gove would react should we vote to leave and the stock market absolutely fucking craters on Friday. I'm sure they could explain away how they lied throughout the campaign on the impacts, but would be curious to see how.

They will stop celebrating the moment they realise Cameron has booked them on TV to explain the Stock crash and currency collapse to the country, can't fucking wait to see how they explain the mess.