Brexit |OT| UK Referendum on EU Membership - 23 June 2016

Did you vote for the side that is going to win?

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Rush_Khan said:
To be honest, I would be very shocked if Leave won. My whole family voted Remain and pretty much most of my friends except one or two are voting Remain. Most of my Facebook was filled with Remain stuff and nothing was for Leave.

I know this is anecdotal but I'm confident most people are in favour of remaining.
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Whereabouts do you all live?
 
Drunk_Dutch_Owl said:
It is not a Dutch problem, it is interlinked with EU membership, influenced by the EU politics.
I don’t consider this to be wrong or right, just a given due to the nature of the EU and how it is organized. Do you recall what happened to the previous Dutch, French and more recently Irish referendum votes? Feel free to search on prior referenda and perhaps you’ll see why this is not a national issue.


See above


See above


Indeed, it is good to read different perspectives, seen many comments in this topic that made me question my own rationale / thinking


Thank you for the link, I understand we have a representative democracy where a government makes choices on our behalf due to being elected. Fair enough, not sure what your point is unfortunately.


No, I would personally never vote for that man / party

Quite an emotional post. I merely posted that message, did not pass any value judgement on it. If we stick to the facts > a non-binding-referendum was arranged according to the law > only valid votes counted during the referendum day count > 61% said no > no decision made by the government as off yet.


Indeed, it is a well know blog, you’ve heard about them too it seems. If I would have tried to press that “joke referendum” (which was held according to the law) as something with actual credibility, I would have done so like you do in your post, lots of emotions whereas I merely posted this as it is linked to the current Brexit referendum.
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No matter if there was any influence from other European leaders (influence which would exists even if EU wouldn't by simple fact that The Netherlands are very much depending on the trading with the European countries, not to even mention the alliances which might also have a big impact in this case) the decision was a decision of the Dutch parliament and Dutch prime-minister. The basic institutions of the democracy, you know?

So no, it's not an EU problem it's a Dutch problem. Every bit of it.
 
I think the only way leave wins is if people lied like exit poles when the Tories cleaned up in the general election in England. I can imagine it being true with the leave is racist tone, people would play it safe when asked and not risk the flak.

I've got a good feeling people are generally happy with how things are going inside the EU whether they've noticed it or not and can see many problems are the actual UK government's problems.
 
Geminosity said:
Vaguely curious but why do you think it would cost you? I ask because I doubt any trade deals the UK would strike would differ much from the current ones. The doom and gloom of supposedly not joining the Euro currency seems to have been forgotten in the wake of the UK economy being a-ok.
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Well this video has been linked on this thread several times. It's that prof. Michael Dougan video by University of Liverpool for those who know it.

Tis is the point he starts with the trade deals. Please listen to it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USTypBKEd8Y&t=15m57s
 
Antialias said:
Voted Remain this morning. This whole thing has made me ashamed to be British.
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Why? Perhaps you and I have a different perspective on this situation so I'm curious what your view is.

To me this is a vote whether we want to remain part of a bureaucratic structure, one that most people even on the remain side even seem to agree is a bit of a mess. By voting remain, for whatever actual reason, you're indirectly lending your support for the EU to trundle on as it is. By voting leave you're indirectly stating that you don't support the way the EU is run. Those might not be your direct motives, of course, but that's the message you're ultimately sending to those in charge of the EU and as such that's what I base my decision to vote 'leave' is grounded in, especially after some of the recent things the EU has been up to.
 
51% Leave, 49% Remain, 70% turnout.

Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling! Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes, the dead rising from the grave! Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!
 
I can see Leave winning unfortunately, hope they don't but the relentless torrent of Brexit stuff on my Facebook feed is worrying me.

Thought about staying up but I'll stress too much haha, I'll get the result at 7am when I get up.
 
BadHand said:
My prediction is 46 Leave, 54 Remain. 79% turnout.

Massive UKIP surge in the next GE.
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Certainly possible. Very difficult to predict what will happen after this, but with Labour being so weak and England (outside London) likely to be by far the most pro-Leave part of the UK I could see UKIP making big gains.
 
Do you think it makes sense to try and read something in to the movement of stock markets for the next few hours? They're the most likely to have some sort of insider knowledge I guess.
 
Those of you whom are itching for the 10pm TV programs to start you are far better off doing something else until at least 11:30pm. It will be pure BS banter and speculation upto then.
 
M_Night said:
35 mins until we start getting early indications.

Hold me.
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Who from? All you are likely to get at 10 is another poll, maybe one done today after panelists voted.

Come back at half twelve for Sunderland.

Madchad said:
Those of you whom are itching for the 10pm TV programs to start you are far better off doing something else until at least 11:30pm. It will be pure BS banter and speculation upto then.
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I mean, yougov called the indyref (correctly) at five past ten. But yeah, it will be hours yet.
 
Hazzuh said:
Do you think it makes sense to try and read something in to the movement of stock markets for the next few hours? They're the most likely to have some sort of insider knowledge I guess.
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The voted are about to be counted in half an hour... They dont know anything...
 
Acorn said:
Yep showed the true face of our "got mine, fuck you'.
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I don't think it showed that at all. Just reveals large section of the working class have been left behind and have grown so disenfranchised they will ignore all reason and protest vote, catalysed by demagoguery and a frisson of racism.

Larger failure of the political class overall. But those same voters share the blame for being so easy to lead on. Things won't change for them till there is a larger non-White immigrant population in this country to counteract that protest vote and allow progressive politicians to rest control of power. We are America 1980.
 
Geminosity said:
Why? Perhaps you and I have a different perspective on this situation so I'm curious what your view is.

To me this is a vote whether we want to remain part of a bureaucratic structure, one that most people even on the remain side even seem to agree is a bit of a mess. By voting remain, for whatever actual reason, you're indirectly lending your support for the EU to trundle on as it is. By voting leave you're indirectly stating that you don't support the way the EU is run. Those might not be your direct motives, of course, but that's the message you're ultimately sending to those in charge of the EU and as such that's what I base my decision to vote 'leave' is grounded in, especially after some of the recent things the EU has been up to.
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A) The campaign wasn't based around that though, it was based on Xenophobia
B) Leaving the EU gives the UK less say in what the EU does. The EU is also arguably a lot less beurocratic than Westminster, and has been responsible for a lot of successes.
 
BadHand said:
My prediction is 46 Leave, 54 Remain. 79% turnout.

Massive UKIP surge in the next GE.
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If UKIP surges to something like 20% of the votes and still get screwed by the FPTP system, wouldn't that really fuck over the right in general?
 
fricking distant family member is a hardcore brexiter, to the fact, he said remaining to stay is a mistake

and when I posted about hope Germany is ok , his response was who cares.


fuck if leave think they are going to win, wonder is some of the nasty traits come out. ffs.

I hope remain win, if not 2 years i'm going to live in France.
 
jelly said:
I think the only way leave wins is if people lied like exit poles when the Tories cleaned up in the general election in England. I can imagine it being true with the leave is racist tone, people would play it safe when asked and not risk the flak.

I've got a good feeling people are generally happy with how things are going inside the EU whether they've noticed it or not and can see many problems are the actual UK government's problems.
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People didn't lie in the exit poll/ That was the first surprise of the night - the BBCs big exit poll was far, far more positive for the conservatives than even they thought possible (I remember a minister on TV saying that whilst it looked goo,d it was very optimistic).

It was the normal polls beforehand that were wrong, and there was a lot of research done into that including the fact the average tory voter was harder to reach than the average labour voter.
 
Rush_Khan said:
To be honest, I would be very shocked if Leave won. My whole family voted Remain and pretty much most of my friends except one or two are voting Remain. Most of my Facebook was filled with Remain stuff and nothing was for Leave.

I know this is anecdotal but I'm confident most people are in favour of remaining.
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I know it doesn't mean anything but I like reading the anecdotal stuff that suits my desires. Heh.

Was very panicky earlier. But I think we'll (eventually) be OK. There's some disturbing stuff that's even bigger than the economy though like social cohesion. I'm just rambling. Shame there's no footy on. Would've been a perfect no effort distraction.
 
phisheep said:
Not who you asked, but it is not just about trade deals.

I import a lot of stuff: the pound tanks on Friday, my cost of purchases goes up 15%, gross profit down->net profit down->less to live on.
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to be frank, I imagine the largest dip is already happening due to caution around the vote itself, the sterling has already dropped a good bit. I've been eyeing up trade deal stuff but I've been able to find economic assessments that basically support just about any view you please. I've found ones saying we'll get hit by the worst recession ever in existance to ones saying we'll be swimming in extra money and every gradient between, so my stance on the economic side has mostly been that I doubt anyone really knows the outcome thanks to how wildly predictions seem to swing. I'm always open to new inputs though, but it's a bit late to change now that I've already voted :P

Jasup said:
Well this video has been linked on this thread several times. It's that prof. Michael Dougan video by University of Liverpool for those who know it.

Tis is the point he starts with the trade deals. Please listen to it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USTypBKEd8Y&t=15m57s
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Thankies, I'll give it a watch now :3
 
I'm gonna guess 73% remain. Had a lot of people round ours (NW England), saying they were voting out though. Anecdotally, from people I know in work and locally - probably a 60-40 split in favour of remain.
 
My sister and I went down to the polls and voted Remain to cancel out our Leave parents.

Literally the only reason my father wants out is because apparently "The Banks" want the UK to stay in I guess? And my mother just does what my father wants.
 
M_Night said:
35 mins until we start getting early indications.

Hold me.
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No exit polls commissioned by the broadcasters.

Private exit polls were by financial organisations in order to get the jump on people to make much monies.

There has however been a poll conducted that asked previously polled people how they actually did vote.
 
Bo-Locks said:
Someone a few days ago said that if leave wins then Cameron will go down as the worst PM since Eden.

If remain wins then where do people think he will rank in post-war PMs, considering he will have shored up the future of the UK within Europe and won 2 of the most crucial referendums imaginable?
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He'd still be one of the worst PMs for risking all this shit for cheap political points in the general election
 
How well UKIP does in the next general election depends on when it is. If the conservative government collapses and there is an election in the next few months I could see them doing well since Labour and the Conservatives are both a clusterfuck right now.
 
slider said:
I know it doesn't mean anything but I like reading the anecdotal stuff that suits my desires. Heh.

Was very panicky earlier. But I think we'll (eventually) be OK. There's some disturbing stuff that's even bigger than the economy though like social cohesion. I'm just rambling. Shame there's no footy on. Would've been a perfect no effort distraction.
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Yep, this day has really dragged on without any football to watch. It's natural to be panicky, the die has been cast and everything is unknown at this point.
 
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