Even if Dems win the Senate it will be by the slimmest of margins. We simply don't have the votes to pass who we want to. We're going to have to compromise a bit on that.
United States Election: Nov. 8, 2016 |OT| Hate Trumps Love
- Thread starter Aaron Strife
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Even if Dems win the Senate it will be by the slimmest of margins. We simply don't have the votes to pass who we want to. We're going to have to compromise a bit on that.
killertofu
Member
Did my part in Florida a few days ago. I actually found my letter of citizenship "from Obama" a few weeks ago. I still got the tingly feeling while in the poll booth.
Ether_Snake
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My guess is her first pick will be as non-controversial as possible to try and get that bipartisanbull thing running, especially since many Republicans were against Trump, she'll be lured into thinking she can build on that. I really don't see her purposely getting in a serious confrontation with the Republicans early on. After the mid-terms, maybe.
Snowybreak
Member
Should I start drinking now? Yes. Yes I should.
CertifiedFP
Member
Fuck yes, got the day off on the 8th. Was scared I'd get a shift in the middle of the day.
How About No
Member
Can't wait for Tuesday. Getting done with work, going to polling place, then grab a beer and watch the fuckery unfold
Has anyone considered voting
Has anyone considered voting
Box of Kittens
Banned
Excellent OT. Clear, concise, and informative.
If there were one thing I would convey to someone who wanted to watch the returns, it would be this. A lot of times people panic/celebrate early not understanding that they're going by returns that are not representative. And this idea extends nationally as well. Early popular/electoral vote counts can be very misleading if you don't step back and ask yourself whether any of this is unexpected.
One particular note is that the first poll closings are in parts of Indiana and Kentucky, two states which are expected to go to Trump. This means that early popular vote counts will likely show Trump leading.
Here are some illustrative clips from 2012 coverage:
Romney leading the electoral vote 33-3 (he lost 332-206).
Even after the election was projected for Obama based on the Electoral College, Romney had a narrow popular vote lead (Obama won the popular vote 51.1%-47.2%).
If there were one thing I would convey to someone who wanted to watch the returns, it would be this. A lot of times people panic/celebrate early not understanding that they're going by returns that are not representative. And this idea extends nationally as well. Early popular/electoral vote counts can be very misleading if you don't step back and ask yourself whether any of this is unexpected.
One particular note is that the first poll closings are in parts of Indiana and Kentucky, two states which are expected to go to Trump. This means that early popular vote counts will likely show Trump leading.
Here are some illustrative clips from 2012 coverage:
Romney leading the electoral vote 33-3 (he lost 332-206).
Even after the election was projected for Obama based on the Electoral College, Romney had a narrow popular vote lead (Obama won the popular vote 51.1%-47.2%).
Her picks will be anti-Citizens United, pro-choice, pro gun regulation, pro federalized healthcare, and pro minority rights (especially voting rights). Those are all key stances she has been behind for a long time and has never given an inch in support of. It'd be hard to find a judge who isn't pretty far left and still checks those boxes.
Age-wise she will pick based on merit just like Obama I'd imagine. Garland might not be her Scalia replacement if she wants to lob a grenade at GOP intransigence day one (it would really burn their base to see a younger more liberal judge because the party stalled, and would feed the radical fringe's narrative that they're enabling liberals, not stopping them). If she replaces two though he's likely getting a seat,as he is incredibly qualified. I'd imagine she will aim to gender balance the court. If she could find a younger version of Deborah Batts it'd probably be her dream pick.
If Clinton wins and Dems have the Senate, the GOP has already indicated that they plan on obstructing SCOTUS picks as fiercely as possible. The Dems have already indicated that they're willing to nuke the filibuster if the GOP goes back on their pledge to "let the next President decide." I suspect the Dems are not going to make such a dramatic move just so that she can turn around and appoint middling jurists to SCOTUS.
Bill was considered a "moderate" back when he appointed Ginsburg and Breyer back in his first term, so I think it'll be pretty easy for Hillary to put-up some solidly liberal justices, especially since the party and the country have moved leftward in the past 25 years.
sazzy
Member
This website is experimenting with projections and rolling updates for battleground states on election day, starting at 11 AM EST:
http://votecastr.us/
Bookmark it.
(Its been going down often in the last few days for, presumably, back end updates, but it will be up on election day)
http://votecastr.us/
Bookmark it.
(Its been going down often in the last few days for, presumably, back end updates, but it will be up on election day)
AnotherDayAnotherDollar
Banned
If I hadn't driven 3 hours to come to Orlando, in part to vote, I would get the fuck on. This line is getting on my last nerve.
Stay the course. It's not just about Hillary and Trump in this state.
Imperial Hot
Banned
My friends and I made this fake Trump ad. Make fun of it if you like. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PAhdbP0kk0s
I really, really like this post
There is no way Clinton will be "lured" into something like that. She knows what the GOP is, and she knew before everyone else. Part of the discussion in 2008 was her thinking Obama was naive for thinking he could work with republicans.
CrimsonSquall
Member
Considering picking up an exit pollster job on tuesday. I'd be up in a town 30m away from 6am-7pm so I'd have to miss class but it'll pay $275 for the day. Worth it? Anyone been an exiter before?
Chezzymann
Member
So we start getting actual coverage of votes at 6 eastern? Anything worth watching before that?
Snowybreak
Member
ShadowSwordmaster
Banned
I already did my part. Hope everyone goes out and vote.
Fox News. All night.
gutter_trash
Banned
Democrats have built a big Blue Wall to block Trump;
with Latinos that Blue wall just got 20 feet taller
with Latinos that Blue wall just got 20 feet taller
Remember, remember the 8th of November...?
VeryGooster
Banned
Home stretch
SymbiantXenos
Member
Personally looking forward to the 8th and the end of that orange twat.
Delusibeta
Banned
25 years? More like eight. Obama's done a fine job of moving the Overton window leftwards during his presidency, aided and abetted by the obstructionist Republicans. It's especially noticeable, because the Overton window elsewhere has been broadly speaking moving to the right in other first world countries in that time.
PlayALLtheGames
Banned
Would be a valid comparison if sports games were decided by how many fans of each team showed up to the game.
callhitman
Member
Man trump Hella smart. he said he was gonna build a wall and he did. said he was gonna have the Mexican make it and they did. only problem it's blue and it's not on the border.
Same...even though I feel very confident in Hillary winning, I'm very nervous about the thought of Trump pulling out some sort of terrible miracle win :/
It'll be Clinton by not many. That is exactly the sort of relieving but otherwise boring result that we can come to expect.
RPGCrazied
Member
Talk about in his own reality. Trying to turn a blue state? Shit man, you are turning red states blue! You have no chance. What a clown.
Just...go in with your expectations in check is all I can say at this point to Trump hopefuls, the weekend before the election. Seems like you already know he's going to need a miracle, so if you go in knowing that, there will be little disappointment.
Third Strike
Member
Nah, they will if they nuke the filibuster. Republicans have already said they're prepared to obstruct any judge Clinton nominates for the next four years. If they nuke the filibuster, then Democrats can confirm a judge with a simple majority. This is already the case with federal judge appointments.
JeTmAn81
Member
So weird and inconvenient to have to stand in some dumb line to vote. Coming from a vote by mail state that just seems silly. I'll probably drop my ballot off at a ballot box Monday.
Another weird thing I don't get, filibustering. Why does it exist? "To protect the rights of the minority!". Well, then what on earth is their vote for?
Here in Arizona, people are waiting in 3 hour plus lines and we ARE a vote by mail eligible state. Yeah it seems insane to me and I struggle to figure it out. People that put off registration too long, people not very well informed? I'm sure there are some actual exceptions here, where mail in wasn't possible for some people but I can't see how it would be so many that there would be 3 hour lines 4 days before the election.
I suppose GOTV could have a lot to do with it. People that had no plans to vote but changed their minds.
This is the state of the race IMO.
Too close imo...at first glance, Hillary wins NV, OH, NC and then FL.
Here, have some more Republican voter fraud. Kind of pointless in a deep blue state, but hey.
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