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[Funky Papa]

Gibraltar was captured in 1704 and formally ceded in 1713. The date at which it became a Crown Colony is not relevant, nor is when it changed it a British Overseas Territory. I don't think colonial status or not really matters. At one point Algeria was integrated into France, that sort of formal status wasn't really relevant to anything either. British Overseas territories that remain tend to be pretty content with their status, so them not being integrated into the UK is of no consequence, in my view. We're talking about over 300 years of uninterrupted British sovereignity, and a similar situation for Spain in those two sections of North Africa.

They're not entirely similar, but it's not something to lose sleep over, and colonial status isn't terribly relevant when ~99 percent of the population is emphatic that their current status is just fine in two referendums.

Make up your mind.

 

[Lagamorph]

Shouldn't the EU be on the UK's side when it comes to Gibraltar down to the whole self determination thing? I thought the EU were quite keen on that.

 

[joanot]

I don't see how Ceuta and Melilla are relevant.

They aren´t.

The Brexiteers meltdowns over Gibraltar on twitter and the news comments sections are something else.

 

[Xando]

They aren´t.

The Brexiteers meltdowns over Gibraltar on twitter and the news comments sections are something else.

Yeah been checking out the Gibraltar hashtag on twitter just now. Mixture between calls for WW3 and nuking spain. The meltdowns are real

 

[PJV3]

It's sort of entertaining watching Spain give the UK government a headache after all the gloating about Scotland getting blocked by them.

 

[Pancake Mix]

Besides, to my non native speaker eyes all the language in the plan does is give Spain a way not to veto a deal with Britain in the event they find fault with it in relation to Gibraltar. And it's not like it's a terrible change for Gibraltar since as it is, they'll lose any deal with the EU in 2 years, all this does is make sure Gibraltar won't be getting a deal Spain would oppose while allowing the rest of the UK to get it... Might feel bad for Gibraltar, but they'll always be able to move to mainland UK.

Of course any single country has a veto. It makes the prospect of a deal incredibly unlikely since someone will inevitably do so, it doesn't have to be Spain.

"Move if you don't like it" is not going to work, ~99 percent of the population is opposed to joint sovereignty, let alone Spanish alone.

It shouldn't be used as a bargaining chip. By Spain's logic, Portugal has a right to Ceuta, having ceded it to Spain in the Treaty of Lisbon 45 years before Spain ceded Gibraltar.

 

[DarthMasta]

Shouldn't the EU be on the UK's side when it comes to Gibraltar down to the whole self determination thing? I thought the EU were quite keen on that.

Sure they are, the EU is quite keen on self determination for EU countries.

 

[Funky Papa]

Shouldn't the EU be on the UK's side when it comes to Gibraltar down to the whole self determination thing? I thought the EU were quite keen on that.

It absolutely isn't, in no small part because several members have separatist movements of their own. Germany just had to come out and tell Catalonian separatists that Europe is trying to erase borders instead of making new ones (this doesn't come from thin air, as they've been trying to make a case for automatic European membership, which wouldn't be possible). When it comes to separatists, the EU prefers to take a step back. This is why it's taking a hands-off approach to Scotland.

But here's the thing: Spain has no real intention to annex Gibraltar. The sooner we understand this, the better.

We already have enough issues with separatist movements and we don't need to deal with another discolous region. As I've already explained, this is all posturing and dick waving. The funny thing is that Spain has always come out as tone deaf and silly as it has no legal case for it (the thing about territorial waters, however...), but now Article 50 has suddenly given Rajoy the legitimacy and the tools to fuck shit up if he feels like it.

 

[Pancake Mix]

It absolutely isn't, in no small part because several members have separatist movements of their own. Germany just had to come out and tell Catalonian separatists that Europe is trying to erase borders instead of making new ones (this doesn't come from thin air, as they've been trying to make a case for automatic European membership, which wouldn't be possible).

But here's the thing: Spain has no real intention to annex Gibraltar. The sooner we understand this, the better.

We already have enough issues with separatists movements and we don't need to deal with another discolous region. As I've already explained, this is all posturing and dick waving. The funny thing is that Spain has already come out as tone deaf and silly as it has no legal case for it (the thing about territorial waters, however...), but now Article 50 has suddenly given Rajoy the legitimacy and the tools to fuck shit up if he feels like it.

Well said. What a mess this is going to be. I really don't see any deal happening because all it takes is one country to say no, it's not really bilateral, it's 1 country against 27 others + the EU parliament which is just another layer to go through.

How does one disentangle themselves from that in a way that doesn't cause significant harm to the economy and carry a certain risk of separatism? Separatism being something the EU was (and is) very good at keeping in check within its borders too.

 

[DarthMasta]

Of course any single country has a veto. It makes the prospect of a deal incredibly unlikely since someone will inevitably do so, it doesn't have to be Spain.

"Move if you don't like it" is not going to work, ~99 percent of the population is opposed to joint sovereignty, let alone Spanish.

It shouldn't be used as a bargaining chip. By Spain's logic, Portugal has a right to Ceuta, having ceded it to Spain in the Treaty of Lisbon 45 years before Spain ceded Gibraltar..

And if Spain was trying to get a deal with an organization where Portugal had a veto, Portugal might press that issue. At the very least, Olivença.

But they aren't, so... This is the real world. The same world where Britain once forced China to open it's borders to opium because it could. The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.

Spain thinks it has the leverage to move the needle on this issue, it's up to Britain to prove it wrong...

 

[jelly]

I'm going off on a tangent but The Rock with Sean Connery. How did you get out of your cell? Trade secrets my son.

The Rock, trade. It's all connected.

Personally I think you're a fucking idiot.

I've gone too deep.

 

[Pancake Mix]

Spain thinks it has the leverage to move the needle on this issue, it's up to Britain to prove it wrong...

Spain has plenty of leverage, but I think the Tories are likely to stand their ground as well. If it's not Gibraltar, something else will probably come up that would cause one of the countries of the EU to veto.

At this point, Argentina and Spain responding similarly at the WTO should be a concern.

Isn't the Gibraltar thing kind of a massive deal?

Huge and one source of several possible vetos to any deal, but it never ceases to come up multiple times per year anyway, and this is yet more of it.

 

[Dehnus]

Isn't the Gibraltar thing kind of a massive deal?



Spain wants Gibraltar, UK says no, Spain vetoes deal, WTO here we come? I appreciate its more complex than that, but are we actually two days in and already have a massive dispute brewing over actual land? thingsarelookingprettygood.jpg?
(Sorry for the drive by post - I'm always reading the thread, but never logged in to respond!)

Also looking at some other .. darker.. things over it.
A lot of British Pesionados in Spain and tourists. If those two start to rile each other up things can get ugly ... fast.

It only requires 1 Spanish Populist to mention it.

That is how the EU prevented war as free movement and economics also mend people could move around to and from and a claim on Gibraltar didn't mean that much as it stayed in the EU, so Spain was effectively defanged.

Now on the other hand... Let's just hope there will not be a Spanish populist that sees this as his opportunity to power , as I do not wish this crap to escalate.

 

[PdotMichael]

There are so many EU countries like Spain or various Eastern European countries which only need to be half so nasty as the UK in the past decades and a somehow face saving deal is pure fiction.

 

[Pancake Mix]

There are so many EU countries like Spain or various Eastern European countries which only need to be half so nasty as the UK in the past decades and a somehow face saving deal is pure fiction.

Yes, there's clearly no deal to be had. Not sure why anyone ever thought to the contrary. Time to look at the WTO.

Seriously. The UK has basically spit in the face of multiple countries with their whole Leave campaign, and now they expect everyone to play nice. It's amazing some are trying to make the EU out as the bad guy while this is going on.

The EU is the bad guy in the sense that it cannot do anything bilaterally, so that criticism of it for being a complete mess is pretty justified.

It also has a currency union without a fiscal union, which was a terrible idea in some ways as Greece shows.

 

[ClosingADoor]

There are so many EU countries like Spain or various Eastern European countries which only need to be half so nasty as the UK in the past decades and a somehow face saving deal is pure fiction.

Seriously. The UK has basically spit in the face of multiple countries with their whole Leave campaign, and now they expect everyone to play nice. It's amazing some are trying to make the EU out as the bad guy while this is going on.

Yes, there's clearly no deal to be had. Not sure why anyone ever thought to the contrary. Time to look at the WTO.

So:

X Money for NHS
X Less immigration
X Trade deal with the EU

And people still want to continue with this madness.

The EU is the bad guy in the sense that it cannot do anything bilaterally, so that criticism of it for being a complete mess is pretty justified.

It also has a currency union without a fiscal union, which was a terrible idea in some ways as Greece shows.

The hell has the Euro to do with Brexit? And it being a mess? Seems the EU is the one here that has actually laid out some plans and a process while the UK is still figuring out what the hell is going on.

 

[JonnyDBrit]

It absolutely isn't, in no small part because several members have separatist movements of their own. Germany just had to come out and tell Catalonian separatists that Europe is trying to erase borders instead of making new ones (this doesn't come from thin air, as they've been trying to make a case for automatic European membership, which wouldn't be possible). When it comes to separatists, the EU prefers to take a step back. This is why it's taking a hands-off approach to Scotland.

But here's the thing: Spain has no real intention to annex Gibraltar. The sooner we understand this, the better.

We already have enough issues with separatists movements and we don't need to deal with another discolous region. As I've already explained, this is all posturing and dick waving. The funny thing is that Spain has always come out as tone deaf and silly as it has no legal case for it (the thing about territorial waters, however...), but now Article 50 has suddenly given Rajoy the legitimacy and the tools to fuck shit up if he feels like it.

Agreed heavily. Moreover, if Spain had any sense they wouldn't want to annex Gibraltar with this - it gives them among the highest amount of negotiating power in EU-UK relations going forward if it's maintained. Britain wants to get banking permissions that could theoretically run through Gibraltar (even if they aren't intended to)? Better get Spain's final word on that first. Their specific political policy gains a lot more weight.

 

[PJV3]

Seriously. The UK has basically spit in the face of multiple countries with their whole Leave campaign, and now they expect everyone to play nice. It's amazing some are trying to make the EU out as the bad guy while this is going on.

Like Greece we will have to try and overcome the political situation in individual countries, the EU itself isn't really the problem as that place is about deal making.

I'm sure the EU will get the blame for the behaviour self interested governments and their people, including our own.

 

[Funky Papa]

Spain has plenty of leverage, but I think the Tories are likely to stand their ground as well. If it's not Gibraltar, something else will probably come up that would cause one of the countries of the EU to veto.

Spain will most probably accept an EU-UK deal. But Spain has the capacity to block Gibraltar from enjoying said deal. And since the UK can't really negotiate a multilateral deal that hits Spain without turning the rest of the EU into collateral victims (ie: can't block Spanish produce without fucking over French, Italian and Greek farmers), this means that all the UK can do is to scream bloody murder while it negotiates an agreement fully knowing that Rajoy can come out right after putting it on paper just to deny Gibraltar.

And if the Tories really treasure Gibraltar as much as they claim, this makes May even more defenceless as it turns Spain into the EU's stick (nay, baseball bat) as it can be used to put pressure on the UK to accept a deal more one sided that the Tories would like to accept. This adds to the fact that the EU obviously care about their future relationship with the UK, but don't give a hoot about Gibraltar as they see it as a bilateral issue.

I don't think Gibraltar is going to turn into a huge issue right away, but Brexit basically allowed Spain to take its economy hostage and this could come into play later on. Just as predicted.

 

[Pancake Mix]

The hell has the Euro to do with Brexit? And it being a mess? Seems the EU is the one here that has actually laid out some plans and a process while the UK is still figuring out what the hell is going on.

The process isn't really workable.

All 27 other countries have a veto on an extension of talks, which is pretty much necessary for a FTA outside the single market, which would also almost certainly get vetoed itself.

Now, the EU is generally a force for good in Europe and the world, but it's almost unworkable, so I don't see how them laying out plans matters when there's no real possibility of anything even similar to CETA being worked out in what, 2 years, maybe 5 if there were somehow an extension.

Spain will most probably accept an EU-UK deal. But Spain has the capacity to block Gibraltar from enjoying said deal. And since the UK can't really negotiate a multilateral deal that hits Spain without turning the rest of the EU into collateral victims (ie: can't block Spanish produce without fucking over French, Italian and Greek farmers), this means that all the UK can do is to scream bloody murder while it negotiates an agreement fully knowing that Rajoy can come out right after putting it on paper just to deny Gibraltar.

And if the Tories really treasure Gibraltar as much as they claim, this makes May even more defenceless as it turns Spain into the EU's stick (nay, baseball bat) as it can be used to put pressure on the UK to accept a deal more one sided that the Torys would like to accept. This adds to the fact that the EU obviously care about its future relationship with the UK, but don't give a hoot about Gibraltar as they see it as a bilateral issue.

I don't think Gibraltar is going to turn into a huge issue right away, but it turns out that Brexit basically allowed Spain to take its economy as hostage. Just as predicted.

I agree 100 percent but it's not only Spain that can veto, at both the EU and WTO.

The whole situation is a living nightmare.

 

[Camp Freddie]

Like others have said, it's not about Spain trying to change Gibraltar's sovereignty. They just want to have an extra veto on any trade arrangements that affect Gibraltar. Spain doesn't really want Gibraltar (well, they do, but they don't want all the angry Gibraltan people that would come with it).
The EU wouldn't allow forced annexation. But they have no reason to offer Gibraltar a good trade deal and every reason to use it as another bit of leverage against the UK in such deals.

It's probably all academic anyway. We're heading for WTO rules and won't get any good deal in the 2 years. And Spain has a veto over any proper trade agreement anyway.

I guess we might get the banking passport as a transitional arrangement (assuming that suddenly removing it would cause financial/liquidity issues in the eurozone).
IIRC, Gibraltar has a strong financial/banking sector, which would be hurt if they didn't get the passport while the UK did.

 

[Pancake Mix]

Like others have said, it's not about Spain trying to change Gibraltar's sovereignty. They just want to have an extra veto on any trade arrangements that affect Gibraltar. Spain doesn't really want Gibraltar (well, they do, but they don't want all the angry Gibraltan people that would come with it).
The EU wouldn't allow forced annexation. But they have no reason to offer Gibraltar a good trade deal and every reason to use it as another bit of leverage against the UK in such deals.

It's probably all academic anyway. We're heading for WTO rules and won't get any good deal in the 2 years. And Spain has a veto over any proper trade agreement anyway.

I guess we might get the banking passport as a transitional arrangement (assuming that suddenly removing it would cause financial/liquidity issues in the eurozone).
IIRC, Gibraltar has a strong financial/banking sector, which would be hurt if they didn't get the passport while the UK did.

Regarding the bolded, there'd be a war for sure, with a large boost to Tory support at the next election. That's how Margaret Thatcher managed to get re-elected in 1983 after the Falklands War.

So it doesn't matter if the EU would allow it or not, it wouldn't work. The UK has the largest military spend in Europe (well, I guess Russia technically).

 

[joanot]

Of course any single country has a veto. It makes the prospect of a deal incredibly unlikely since someone will inevitably do so

That's the reason why this guideline regarding Gibraltar is on the EU draft document, the EU doesn't want Spain to veto a hypothetical deal with the UK on the issue of Gibraltar.

 

[Funky Papa]

Also looking at some other .. darker.. things over it.
A lot of British Pesionados in Spain and tourists. If those two start to rile each other up things can get ugly ... fast.

It only requires 1 Spanish Populist to mention it.

That is how the EU prevented war as free movement and economics also mend people could move around to and from and a claim on Gibraltar didn't mean that much as it stayed in the EU, so Spain was effectively defanged.

Now on the other hand... Let's just hope there will not be a Spanish populist that sees this as his opportunity to power , as I do not wish this crap to escalate.

I don't believe shitting on Gibraltar would provide many votes to any party outside of the neighbouring region. All recent attempts made by Rajoy to use Gibraltar as a way to distract the population from the current issues have been a disaster. Nobody cares about Gibraltar in the grand scheme of things. It's a tiring and fruitless pursuit.

The only parties willing to make a stand over it are the PP (which already has the Spanish nationalist vote anyway) and Vox (lol).


Also, this talk about military intervention if pure fantasy. Spain would never make such a move. We have nothing to win but a scorched rock.

 

[Veidt]

Like a boss

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...d_news&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=scotland

727 comments on that article, probably won't read...

Herewego!

The real prime minister the UK deserved.

 

[Taffer]

I'm going off on a tangent but The Rock with Sean Connery. How did you get out of your cell? Trade secrets my son.

The Rock, trade. It's all connected.

Personally I think you're a fucking idiot.

I've gone too deep.

The Rock?

The floor's on fire?

 

[Audioboxer]

https://www.snp.org/most_scots_agre..._scotland?mc_cid=b2bd750ae2&mc_eid=ca19d73f8c

 

[theaface]

The whole situation is a living nightmare.

That feeling when "Project Fear" becomes Project Reality.

Enjoy.

 

[RocknRola]

It's kinda sad that my only knowledge of Gibraltar is that their National Team plays on the Algarve stadium often.

Well, whatever the outcome of that I hope that above all else the people living there don't get screwed over in the process. Granted, from what I'm reading here it's clearly not something easy to fix, but at some point a solution will have to be agreed upon I guess.

 

[tolkir]

The main purpose of Spain is going to be that Gibraltar don't be a tax haven anymore, and secondary, remove illegal traffic between borders.

I don't see the government trying to recover the rock with enthusiasm, besides, it would lost some votes for nationalism.
Even Spain won't speak about it because the former decrepit foreign minister is gone, and the new one looks much more moderate.

 

[Pancake Mix]

The real prime minister the UK deserved.

Well then she should have joined Labour. The most recent Labour PM was Scottish after all.

That feeling when "Project Fear" becomes Project Reality.

Enjoy.

"Project Fear" was right twice! There were great reasons to be fearful for leaving the EU and there are great reasons to be fearful for leaving the UK, EU or not.

Fools can call it "Project Fear" all they like, that "Project Fear" is the right choice.

SNP poll[/url]

Commissioned by the SNP...shocking.

Here's a real poll: http://natcen.ac.uk/media/1361407/ssa16-2fr8m-1ndyref-2-1ndyr8f-tw0-two.pdf

^Shows most Scots want harmonisation with the rest of the UK.

 

[Joni]

The process isn't really workable.

All 27 other countries have a veto on an extension of talks, which is pretty much necessary for a FTA outside the single market, which would also almost certainly get vetoed itself.

I said it before, I will say it again. It is on purpose so no country would be stupid enough to actually leave.

 

[ClosingADoor]

The process isn't really workable.

All 27 other countries have a veto on an extension of talks, which is pretty much necessary for a FTA outside the single market, which would also almost certainly get vetoed itself.

Now, the EU is generally a force for good in Europe and the world, but it's almost unworkable, so I don't see how them laying out plans matters when there's no real possibility of anything even similar to CETA being worked out in what, 2 years, maybe 5 if there were somehow an extension.

It has worked pretty well over the years. There is a ton of stuff that those countries gotten done with the current structure. And nobody wants to give more power to Europe, so it's not going to get any easier.

You are acting like it is the EU's fault that the UK didn't realize that an exit from the union would have painful consequences. This was all known. It was said time and time again. But the British thought the EU was bluffing and they would get a magic deal done. Well, it doesn't work that way, so the UK has to come up with some damn good arguments to get an extension of the 2 years. That is on them.

The rules were laid out there, but the UK was under the illusion they didn't apply to them. Now they are waking up.

 

[Audioboxer]

Well then she should have joined Labour. The most recent Labour PM was Scottish after all.



"Project Fear" was right twice! There were great reasons to be fearful for leaving the EU and there are great reasons to be fearful for leaving the UK, EU or not.

Fools can call it "Project Fear" all they like, that "Project Fear" is the right choice.



Commissioned by the SNP...shocking.

Here's a real poll: http://natcen.ac.uk/media/1361407/ssa16-2fr8m-1ndyref-2-1ndyr8f-tw0-two.pdf

^Shows most Scots want harmonisation with the rest of the UK.

They actually interviewed less people

NatCen Social Research interviewed 859 people living in Scotland between 5 February and 2 March 2017, either via the internet or over the phone. All respondents were originally interviewed as part of the random probability face-to-face 2015 or 2016 Scottish Social Attitudes (SSA) survey. The data have been weighted to take account of differences between the composition of the sample and that of the original SSA sample, as well as to ensure that it matches the known demographic characteristics of the population. After weighting 66.5% of the sample said that they had voted to Remain, compared to the actual result of 62%. 52% said they voted No to independence in September 2014, similar to the 55% who actually did so.

http://natcen.ac.uk/news-media/pres...ving-scots-share-pm’s-vision-for-brexit-deal/

Also is your bias just to say "LOL SNP" as if an actual government party cannot poll responsibly? "Here's a real poll". Ok. Not to mention both of these polls were asking different questions.

 

[axisofweevils]

Sure they are, the EU is quite keen on self determination for EU countries.

Yep, Gibraltar was a contested area between 2 EU countries.
We decided to leave.
EU protects its interests.

I find it amazing that Theresa May's A50 letter didn't even mention this. They were warned.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/poli...t-britain-the-rock-of-gibraltar-a3256236.html

This was in the Evening Standard last June.

“If you care about Gibraltar, if you believe that Gibraltar should remain British, then you have to vote for the UK to stay in the EU so that we don’t face a challenge to our sovereignty within four days of the referendum result,” he told the Standard.

“We fought so hard to push off the spectre of Spanish sovereignty, or even joint sovereignty, and we would in effect be put in a situation where we are giving Spain the excuse to table it again.”

Doesn't bode well for her negotiating skills going forward.

 

[Veidt]

Imagine losing Gibraltar and Scotland.

 

[jelly]

Sounds like an expert to me and you know what leave voters think of experts.

 

[AlexFlame116]

Like a boss

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...d_news&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=scotland

727 comments on that article, probably won't read...

Herewego!

That true Scot must feel like He saved his nation from the evil one. How wonderful...

 

[Daffy Duck]

That true Scot must feel like He saved his nation from the evil one. How wonderful...

What's that comment meant to mean? I can't figure it out.

 

[Pancake Mix]

They actually interviewed less people



http://natcen.ac.uk/news-media/pres...ving-scots-share-pm’s-vision-for-brexit-deal/

Also is your bias just to say "LOL SNP" as if an actual government party cannot poll responsibly? "Here's a real poll". Ok. Not to mention both of these polls were asking different questions.

Yes, it's unwise to put faith in any one poll, but government polls should be subject to extreme scrutiny, especially but not exclusively when they appear to contradict other collected evidence. That goes for anywhere.

Bias is a problem with any poll but when it's not even run under a separate organisation the scrutiny should be at maximum.

That true Scot must feel like He saved his nation from the evil one. How wonderful...

Agreed, it's pretty cringe-worthy and antagonistic. Not the sort of language needed at the moment.

 

[SporeCrawler]

Gibraltar has rejected Spain by vote twice in recent history and the latest was 98% against. It's technically British land that was signed over. Since Britain has been cooperative in asking what the people want to do I'd say it's down to the people if they want to be part of Spain and EU or not.

lets see if they want to be with UK once there is a giant border wall with one spanish border patrol letting no one in or out and massive customs on everything

 

[Pancake Mix]

lets see if they want to be with UK once there is a giant border wall with one spanish border patrol letting no one in or out and massive customs on everything

...So like has happened many times in the past?

Probably makes them dig in their heels.

 

[SporeCrawler]

...So like has happened many times in the past?

Probably makes them dig in their heels.

well its going to be the entirety of the EU now and not only spain im afraid.

 

[ClosingADoor]

...So like has happened many times in the past?

Probably makes them dig in their heels.

Wasn't the last time like 30+ years ago?

 

[Jezbollah]

Wasn't the last time like 30+ years ago?

You could say it was a generation ago

 

[oti]

Imagine losing Gibraltar and Scotland.

Is there anything happening in Wales or nah?

 

[ClosingADoor]

Is there anything happening in Wales or nah?

Wales voted Leave I think.

 

[tomtom94]

Imagine losing Gibraltar and Scotland.

Time will tell but Cameron ought to be the one who gets the blame for losing Scotland, he's the one who made promises his little Englanders couldn't cash. May is just dragging out what looks at this point to be the inevitable.

 

[SporeCrawler]

Is there anything happening in Wales or nah?

northern ireland is another issue.

 

[Jezbollah]

Wales voted Leave I think.

That didn't stop Leanne Wood hinting about their own independence referendum a few weeks back, bizarrely enough.