Kansas 04 special election results thread

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I have to wonder if this seat flipping would signal to other republicans that it's time to jump ship from Trump.

I'm not counting on it but it would be glorious.
 
800px-United_States_presidential_election_in_Kansas%2C_2016.svg.png


How Kansas voted in the last presidential election, for comparison.
 
guek said:
I have to wonder if this seat flipping would signal to other republicans that it's time to jump ship from Trump.

I'm not counting on it but it would be glorious.
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Moderate Rs have already been flipping on Brownback but don't have a veto-proof majority, even w/ the Dems helping.
 
Well that's a good sign if Sedgwick is already strongly blue. Not that I think this will go dem or anything, but this is a nice bow shot if this trend continues.
 
Honestly, there's pretty much 0% chance that Thompson wins. That's just the way Kansas has been for the longest time. But if Estes doesn't win by a landslide, it's a sign that the Republicans will be in for a tough next few years and 2018.
 
Early voting generally leans Democrat, yeah? In which case, it sounds like we shouldn't read too much into these numbers.
 
Parham said:
Early voting generally leans Democrat, yeah? In which case, it sounds like we shouldn't read too much into these numbers.
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But we should, even if Democrats lose. The Republican here should be winning by 30 points, if he barely wins by 5 points, its going to spell problems for the GOP.
 
Early going but right now, Thompson is tracking about 25 points ahead of Hillary Clinton in the counties that are reporting. 27 is the magic number.
 
RPGCrazied said:
But we should, even if Democrats lose. The Republican here should be winning by 30 points, if he barely wins by 5 points, its going to spell problems for the GOP.
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Right, to be clear, I'm talking specifically about the early voting numbers, not the final result.
 
I'd be astounded if the Democrats actually won here, but if they manage a solid showing, it's an excellent result.

It really bears reminding that we're not even three months into this administration. This is normally the peak popularity of any presidency. And Trump has yet to face a crisis not of his own making.

Things will get much, much worse between now and November 2018.

So if the GOP is already panicking over special elections now, they're going to be in for a rough time.
 
The good thing so far is he is winning by double in an area that heavily voted for Trump.. really hope Thompson pulls this out.. would really send these republican asshats a message. The way they have been acting.. like they are invincible and can do whatever they want.. would love to see them put in check.
 
I don't have too much knowledge about this district but sounds of it Dems shouldn't get too excited for this flipping huh.

I just hope it gets really close, which may be a nice precursor to 2018 elections.
 
Thompson's not gonna win, but if he pulls it into single digits then the GOP is going to start freaking out. Would that be the point where Republicans in Congress start to consider whether having Trump as President is in their best interests?

mcfrank said:
Butler
Thompson- 327
Estes - 410


Trump won Butler 69% to 24%
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40 point margin to 10 point margin? Ouch.
 
Edwards county coming in with much stronger results for the Republican, tracking similar to Trump totals. Also a good vote turn out tracking 65-70% of election day which is great for a special election. We need Thompson to run up the score in Wichita if the rural counties show up.
 
Damaniel said:
Thompson's not gonna win, but if he pulls it into single digits then the GOP is going to start freaking out. Would that be the point where Republicans in Congress start to consider whether having Trump as President is in their best interests?
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People keep saying this, but what happens if Thompson actually wins? Trump to get impeached tomorrow?
 
Some good news:

tbonier: Another wow #KS04 moment here - Thompson won the EV/AV in Harvey County by 19%. The GOP were +15% on turnout. This is shocking.
 
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