That was probably me who said it. But China screws things up in that comparison, since F7 launched on a Sunday. That "opening weekend" was 1 day.
Wkd BO 0414-1617 - Can't fight fate, Baby: F8 leaves WW B.O. opening record in dust
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That was probably me who said it. But China screws things up in that comparison, since F7 launched on a Sunday. That "opening weekend" was 1 day.
Discotheque
Banned
Jurassic World hype came out of nowhere for sure. Jurassic Park is a cool brand but the third piece of crap didn't make much of a splash and then the trailers didn't seem to get that much hype
And then worldwide it just kills
And then worldwide it just kills
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
This isn't really true; the trailer had 60 million views on youtube by time it released, had a killer Super Bowl spot and also had a ton of marketing.
The signs were there, but all of us put too much emphasis on the JP sequels hurting the brand rather than recognizing how well-regarded the first was. Any sub-$100M OW predictions were always nuts though, considering Godzilla opened to $93M just one year prior.
Yeah, 90% of F7's worldwide gross is about $1.44b, so I tried to account for that with a $1.3-$1.4b estimate. Maybe I need to shave off a bit more to account for it, I don't know.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I died last time, remember.
Some guy wrote my eulogy and everything.
It was weird.
I remember a simpler time, when I first arrived.
Simpler times indeed.
I guess you're reborn.
Jurassic World from tracking to actual box office still doesn't make much sense to me. I mean, this was the studio tracking 3 weeks before release:
http://deadline.com/2015/05/jurassic-world-tracking-man-of-steel-last-100m-opening-1201431764/
Variety managed to publish this gem of promethean foresight from moviepilot like an hour before we got the Thursday previews number:
http://variety.com/2015/data/box-of...our-125-million-at-the-box-office-1201518701/
Then everyone decided that they couldn't live without witnessing a T-rex and a Velociraptor tag team fight, and suddenly this was the Avengers with a dash of summer weekdays and an extra helping of China at the box office.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Discotheque
Banned
You're in the bubble dude. A bubble of denial and refusal to accept lord Cameron as a blockbuster savior. And you're raging in it right now fam. Ready to pop. It's not too late.
Probably because naysayers always like to belittle its actual cultural impact. And belittle people who are probably more realistic about its prospects as being in nerd bubbles while posting on a gaming forum.
Given the amount of people who were adamant it was gonna bomb hard, you'd believe the first film was practically dead on arrival. People also seem to forget how it managed to grab $2.7b at the box office in the first place. It's almost as if people liked the movie.
disney fucked up
no one could have anticipated this complete lack of anyone caring about avatar back when the movie first came out
when avatar 2 does less than a billi, disney will convert it to star wars land 2
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Fun fact: The Lost World's OW adjusted to ~$130M in 2015. Also, the highest June OW before Jurassic World was Man of Steel with $116M.
I've noticed that precedent plays a noticeable part in what insiders will predict, even if the examples are a reach, so I wouldn't be surprised if those two factors were why tracking services were reluctant to predict an opening above that range.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
This is maybe the most succinct way of describing that viewpoint that I've read.
Like, seriously: Imagine it's November 2010. The big fat 4 disc box-set of Avatar just dropped.
I tell you that in 8 years not only will a sequel not even have been started, but a theme park will only just now have opened to less attention than the announcement that Terminator 2 will be converted to 3D.
Who would believe that.
I think it would be simpler to just set aside the Chinese gross. Fate of the Furious is going end up with a similar final USD gross to Furious 7 in China. Figure $400M for simplicity's sake. I'd give that a +/- 10% error margin, but close enough.
Last I checked, the Chinese weekend total for F8 ended up being around $193M. That means that the rest of the world was ~$340M during that opening weekend.
Furious 7 opened to $397M without China and Russia in its first weekend like you said. If you throw Russia back in to make it comparable to F8, F7's opening was a bit over $410M.
340/410 = .829
So Fate of the Furious opened to around 83% of Furious 7's worldwide opening, excluding China.
Furious 7 made around $1130M outside of China. If you multiplied that the 83% above, you get a bit less than $940M for F8 with the same legs that Furious 7 had. Throw in the $400M from China, and you end up with $1340M.
Fate of the Furious isn't actually all that likely to match Furious 7's legs though. To start with, followups to breakout movie phenomenons are pretty much universally more frontloaded. I can't think of any examples where that isn't true. Furious 7 also had almost an entire month to itself, while Guardians 2 starts launching in overseas territories next Wednesday.
Based on that, I'd probably target $1.25B (+/- 5%)
I know the seven stans of this movie left can't handle it, but this thing is just irrelevant.
How irrelevant are you talking about? Under $1b? We'll meet back here in 2022 and duke it out, LOL.
Discotheque
Banned
I'm not the spreadsheet type who will gather months of posts for a crow thread...but you all will see how wrong you are. In your hearts.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I forget who it was, but whoever it was that did all that copy+pasting to crow over fuckin' Ant Man of all the goddamn things seems to have put that phenomena to sleep for awhile.
BronsonLee
Member
There's too much math here guys, my head hurts
help
help
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Discotheque is more thirsty for that Avatar 2 box office than even Sam Worthington
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Avatar 2 could drop $1b from the original and still be #4 all time world wide grosser. That is how insane the gross was on the first one.
You didn't program the script to do math too?
And I applaud that motherfucker. GAF needed to eat that crow after all that shit they were talking on our boy Paul Rudd.
I don't think that Avatar 2 is going to be a Cameron threepeat when it comes to obliterating records, but I think that some of you are playing up the importance of cultural relevance here.
Avatar 2 gets a ton of free publicity for being the sequel to the highest grossing film of all time. Your parents' news channel or paper of choice is going to give some time/space to Avatar 2's release, even if they don't typically focus on movies or entertainment.
Awareness will already be there. If the trailers and marketing bring their A-game, getting people hyped again won't be all that hard.
EDIT: If Cameron somehow entered the "out of touch old man" phase of his career in the past decade, and this is more ID4R than Terminator 2 quality-wise, then it will then be time to lower those expectations. Except in China. China is the box office equivalent of the island of misfit toys.
Avatar 2 gets a ton of free publicity for being the sequel to the highest grossing film of all time. Your parents' news channel or paper of choice is going to give some time/space to Avatar 2's release, even if they don't typically focus on movies or entertainment.
Awareness will already be there. If the trailers and marketing bring their A-game, getting people hyped again won't be all that hard.
EDIT: If Cameron somehow entered the "out of touch old man" phase of his career in the past decade, and this is more ID4R than Terminator 2 quality-wise, then it will then be time to lower those expectations. Except in China. China is the box office equivalent of the island of misfit toys.
broncobuster
Banned
Either way, Avatar 2's box office will be fun to witness.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
James Cameron blew a 3-1 lead.
It's really insane. When Avatar was going on its run, at the very least, I was expecting toys, comics and novels NON STOP. Followed by a sequel a couple of years later, of course.
Instead... absolutely nothing to fill the 10 year void between films. Madness.
Not to mention the film itself is completely forgettable.
They would have to be able to pick Sam Worthington out of a crowd first.
Hero_of_the_Day
Member
The worst thing about Avatar 2 not coming until 2019/2020 is having to wait that long to laugh at anyone who is crazy enough to seriously think it won't make a billion dollars. I know the goal posts are immediately going to be moved to it obviously not making as much as the first, but I'm still going to enjoy it.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Fast 8 breaks box office records but the God King Of Cinema is the current discussion.
<3
<3
Of course. You can't get rid of the man that gave us iconic moments in Avatar like
......hmm. This is harder than I thought.
kunonabi
Member
If Sam Worthington was replaced would anyone notice?
I remember this very vividly. I was in China then and saw the hype first hand, missed the NA hype.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
"This is great!" is an iconic Sam Worthington moment
said the one Avatar fan I asked about it.
BronsonLee
Member
Discotheque
Banned
Ant Man...lmao. now there's an utterly mediocre movie that has no business having stans.
Avatar has been so dormant for so long. Pop culture impact is an irrelevant talking point for this property.
It seems like they're going in heavy on it this time tho with the sequel. Considering avatar land and that game that is being made by Massive/Ubi. Whether or not those take off is yet to be seen. Well the avatar land will obviously be huge. Shit looks dope. But we'll see how continuously succesful it ends up being for Disney world
And yeah. Obviously when the marketing hits that's when hype lives or dies.
Right now it's all moot tho. It's still so early.
Avatar has been so dormant for so long. Pop culture impact is an irrelevant talking point for this property.
It seems like they're going in heavy on it this time tho with the sequel. Considering avatar land and that game that is being made by Massive/Ubi. Whether or not those take off is yet to be seen. Well the avatar land will obviously be huge. Shit looks dope. But we'll see how continuously succesful it ends up being for Disney world
And yeah. Obviously when the marketing hits that's when hype lives or dies.
Right now it's all moot tho. It's still so early.
broncobuster
Banned
Unless they're bring back his twin brother, isn't he just doing performance capture for it?
wait, the twin brother might be dead or something. Can't remember most of the movie besides the learning to fly scene and bombastic action finale.
This is a steaming pile of horse manure and you know it.
BronsonLee
Member
Bobby Roberts
Banned
...YOU ARE LIKE BABY
Discotheque
Banned
Those shitty glasses you have to wear every time you go to theaters now....how's that for impact. Whew. Cameron changed things...forever
In this case for the worse tbh
broncobuster
Banned
Avatar U
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Did anyone outside of pot smoking hippies actually like Alice in Wonderland? Bronson is right ( D: ) that the 3D shine caused by played a huge part in Alice and also Sam Worthington's only post-Avatar hit, Clash of the Titans.
And a huge (if not the majority) of Avatar's boxoffice run was people freaking out about 3D and having to see it in 3D.
I am sure the complete lack of interest in 3D now will do wonders for a sequel to a movie literally no one but Cameron stans can name a single character from.
Seriously, ask random people you know to name a character from Avatar. They won't be able to name ANYONE. The best you will get is "Wasn't that the movie with the blue people?".
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Avatar 2 could have a Looking Glass level drop and still pull in over $800m worldwide.
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