Support NeoGAF

[devilhawk]

I didn't realize this was a Gubernatorial or Senator election.

I think you are missing the poster's point. Unlike in other states where congressional races are a gerrymandered portion of the state, Montana only gets 1 seat so congressional races are much more similar to senate and governor races than in other states.

 

[PKrockin]

Perhaps, I never said it wouldn't. But I also think citing "Montana political history" when the Republicans won this seat by 16% last year and have held it for 2 decades is off the mark.

Gianforte could lose because of this assault, because he's not an incumbent, because he's a bad candidate, because Quist is a better candidate, because Montana is sick of Trump already etc. But citing past Montana results as a cause seems like an exercise in futility when we're talking about the House.

Even though it sounds totally damning that Democrats haven't held the seat in 20 years, that's really not that many elections. Can you even compare elections with an incumbent with ones for an open seat? 96% of incumbent congressmen got re-elected in 2014--the incumbent advantage is very strong. Since the Dem left office 20 years ago you only have like 4 data points to compare the race to--where there was an election held for an open seat. I think it might actually be more useful to look at the current and historical makeup of the state legislature, senate and governorship compared to the US average to try to guess how willing Montanans are willing to vote for a Democrat. That way gives you a lot more data, at the very least.

 

[texasairhead101]

Refresh post sorry.

 

[ZeoVGM]

Apparently it is.

Gazette opinion: We're pulling our endorsement of Gianforte

edit: beaten

Holy crap.

That is scathing.

 

[SURGEdude]

I mean, Trump did get elected, you know.

Of course he has a chance. Just a very small chance, in my opinion.



I'll repeat what I said earlier. Categorizing Montana as deep red state isn't helpful and shows a naivety of Montana politics where in Montana's case democrats can win at the local and state level while losing the presidential vote.



Okay, here are some fast facts for you.

- Montana just reelected their Democratic governor who beat Gianforte by about 4 points.
- They have a Democratic senator.
- While they do not control the state house or senate, the seat margin between Democrats and Republicans is much closer than every other single state in the region.

Lastly, if the drop in turn out is similar to the Kansas and Georgia special elections we've had this year, then Democrats should win this election, as the democratic candidate in the 2016 Montana house election was closer to beating their opponent than the 2016 candidates of the two previously mentioned elections.

Let me preface this by saying I hope more than anything that yo're right.

But I don't for a moment think this dickbag won't win. Betting against the plurality of American's having much of a moral core is a winner almost every time.

Jon Ossoff's race is looking better but I still assume he is likely to lose as well.

 

[NastyBook]

Spinebuster. Leaked video footage:

Arn Anderson's form is perfect. Damn, that's a good ass spinebuster.

 

[Zenner]

Must've taken the same workshop on how to handle reporters as (R) Rep Michael Grimm :v

 

[Sobriquet]

Another paper pulls endorsement: http://missoulian.com/opinion/edito...d-9220-5dc5-9193-f1ae9ef03c60.html?utm_medium

 

[johnsmith]

Another paper rescinds their endorsement

http://missoulian.com/opinion/edito...cle_ab947a9d-9220-5dc5-9193-f1ae9ef03c60.html

 

[ShutEye]

Not only incapable of governing, but incapable of participating in civil society. GOP really are something.

 

[Officerrob]

Not only incapable of governing, but incapable of participating in civil society. GOP really are something.

I still think he wins

 

[Gitaroo]

that Farcry 5 poster came in the right time

https://abload.de/img/img_4151ixywp.jpg

 

[mike6467]

Sports teams. That's all politics are now.

 

[norm9]

These newspaper retractions s are so brutal. Hopefully it makes a difference

 

[parrotbeak]

Another paper pulls endorsement: http://missoulian.com/opinion/edito...d-9220-5dc5-9193-f1ae9ef03c60.html?utm_medium

lol at

And in case critics say this is just fake news from the liberal media, let us repeat one fact again: The eyewitness account of Gianforte’s actions came from a Fox News reporter.

I guess they know their audience.

I don't follow or have much interest in MT politics but it's funny that these papers endorsed him up till now.

 

[Lys Skygge]

Did you mean to insert "not" in between is and representative? I hope so.

Omg lol. Definitely a mistake! I edited my post haha

 

[SURGEdude]

Not that it matters, but it's an act of courage by these right leaning paper to not just ignore this fiasco. That it took until something like this to unendorse this shitburger is annoying, yet it's a tiny glimmer of hope.

 

[Mrbob]

I still think he wins

Too many early votes already in, I can see it happening.

 

[MasterCheeze]

I'm from Montana, and I support Gianforte's actions. Goes to show he doesn't take no crap from anyone. Think I'll drive home to vote for him tomorrow.

Nah jk, but I can imagine he'll still win knowing Montana lol.

 

[Dany]

I hope he loses

 

[Ernest]

There was a time something like this would've destroyed a politician.

Is Trump to blame, or is he just another symptom of whatever it is?

 

[Einchy]

Jon Favreau @jonfavs 4 minutes ago
The conservative intelligentsia weighs in

So, this is what we've become now? If you don't fight a politicians then you're the one coming off looking "weak"?
[edit]

There was a time something like this would've destroyed a politician.

Is Trump to blame, or is he just another symptom of whatever it is?

I guess that's where we are now.

 

[Ourobolus]

There was a time something like this would've destroyed a politician.

Is Trump to blame, or is he just another symptom of whatever it is?

Shitty people have always existed. They've just been emboldened over the past years.

 

[Brandon F]

So was wrestling real all along and was it reality that was fake??

 

[gutter_trash]

Arn Anderson's form is perfect. Damn, that's a good ass spinebuster.

Triple H's is better

 

[ISOM]

Jon Favreau @jonfavs 4 minutes ago
The conservative intelligentsia weighs in

Men used to grab women by the pussy too. Does she want that too?

 

[Permanently A]

I wonder if he will still win.

 

[mo60]

I wonder if he will still win.

Probably but his political career probably won't last long if more came out about this story.

 

[Ourobolus]

I wonder if he will still win.

There's still probably a decent chance. Early voting has been going on, but the current thought is that early voters probably wouldn't be swayed by this news, so it's possible that those on the fence vote against it tomorrow (and Montana has same-day registration).

 

[gutter_trash]

I wonder if he will still win.

something 5th avenue and not losing any votes

 

[mike6467]

Shitty people have always existed. They've just been emboldened over the past years.

I think "emboldened" really diminishes what's happened. It's now fashionable to cheer for these guys. It's not just the extremists, it's the people looking to belong and finding some common thread with these fucks. There may be a lot of extremists, but it seems to me they have a lot of people riding on their coattails because why not.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Spinebuster. Leaked video footage:

Triple H's is better

I'm going to have to go with AA.

I'll open a wrestling hotline, one of those 900 number deals and see if Okerlund is busy, to let the public settle it once and for all.

 

[gazele]

I wonder if he will still win.

As others have mentioned, a large number of the votes have been mailed in (even though early voting tends to lean democratic, hence republicans wanting to get rid of it)

Similar to the Georgia election, even if the republicans win in these cases, the challenging democrats could easily build momentum until the next election...in 2018

At the pace of republican support in terms of polling, these seats will be even more up for grabs then

The best advantage for him winning tomorrow is PR, so that there won't be stories about how "democrats have much higher levels of support but still can't win elections"

 

[akira28]

Take him down before he gets his hands on some nanomachines, son.

 

[bozeman]

There was a time something like this would've destroyed a politician.

Is Trump to blame, or is he just another symptom of whatever it is?

Please consider that a gas station "en route to Bozeman" could be any number of small holes in the wall mostly servicing a tiny number of isolated back woods citizens who distrust outsiders and where choking a reporter for a British newspaper would be considered the right thing to do.

Bozeman, with it's population approaching 50,000, is considered "the city" in Montana, along with Billings and Missoula. Think about that and put it in context. A town of 50,000 is where all the "uppity, latte drinking, liberal, don't know what a hard days work is" people live. It's extremely rural here. These people are very different from you or I.

 

[Ourobolus]

I think "emboldened" really diminishes what's happened. It's now fashionable to cheer for these guys. It's not just the extremists, it's the people looking to belong and finding some common thread with these fucks. There may be a lot of extremists, but it seems to me they have a lot of people riding on their coattails because why not.

I'm not necessarily arguing, but I've known plenty of people who will put up a front by saying shit like, "I'd have punched his lights out," or some equally insipid "tough guy" phrase, in private. Now these fools don't have to hid their thoughts due to the current climate.

 

[Link]

Please consider that a gas station "en route to Bozeman" could be any number of small holes in the wall mostly servicing a tiny number of isolated back woods citizens who distrust outsiders and where choking a reporter for a British newspaper would be considered the right thing to do.

Bozeman, with it's population approaching 50,000, is considered "the city" in Montana, along with Billings and Missoula. Think about that and put it in context. A town of 50,000 is where all the "uppity, latte drinking, liberal, don't know what a hard days work is" people live. It's extremely rural here. These people are very different from you or I.

Sorry, not to distract from your greater point, but man, I am seriously unfamiliar with the major cities of Montana.

 

[Ourobolus]

Sorry, not to distract from your greater point, but man, I am seriously unfamiliar with the major cities of Montana.

Missoula is great, actually. Enjoyed the times I've visited, and my wife went to grad school there.

 

[A Serious Man]

It's going to hurt him. We know conservatives rely a lot more heavily on Fox News compared to us liberals with other news sources and Fox News is pointedly calling themselves as witnesses.

He could still win considering how much pussygrabbing didn't hurt Trump and the Khan fight was many months before the election happened but coming from Fox those with more of a conscious will not look favorably on this.

The point is that the GOP base is all for attacking journalists. This story will be viewed positively by quite a number of Trump voters, it may even energize them.

 

[norm9]

Please consider that a gas station "en route to Bozeman" could be any number of small holes in the wall mostly servicing a tiny number of isolated back woods citizens who distrust outsiders and where choking a reporter for a British newspaper would be considered the right thing to do.

Bozeman, with it's population approaching 50,000, is considered "the city" in Montana, along with Billings and Missoula. Think about that and put it in context. A town of 50,000 is where all the "uppity, latte drinking, liberal, don't know what a hard days work is" people live. It's extremely rural here. These people are very different from you or I.

I have to trust you with that username.

 

[Snowman Prophet of Doom]

Got told on Twitter "at least he didn't have him killed and bar the investigation". Utter lunacy.

 

[AlteredBeast]

Good on Montana news organizations for rescinding their endorsements. If this asshat still wins, it will be a shame upon the people of Montana like the stink that hangs over those who dig their heels in for Trump, even when he is actively trying to screw them over.

 

[acheron_xl]

Good on Montana news organizations for rescinding their endorsements. If this asshat still wins, it will be a shame upon the people of Montana like the stink that hangs over those who dig their heels in for Trump, even when he is actively trying to screw them over.

Yeah, it's great, but one of the thousand bubbles of conventional wisdom that were popped in 2016 was the one that said that endorsements mean anything.

 

[bozeman]

Sorry, not to distract from your greater point, but man, I am seriously unfamiliar with the major cities of Montana.

That's it. Helena is the capitol. However, Billings is the biggest city at about 100,000 and Missoula and Bozeman are the cultural centers of the state. In fact, you'd probably feel right at home in either Missoula or Bozeman. However, you start traveling around the state and it's very different. And those people are just fine where they're at. They have zero interest in anything "big city."

 

[PKrockin]

I made this thing. Montana ranks in almost exactly average in terms of how much of their state legislature and senate is held by Democrats, for what that's worth.

Made from the 2017 Legislative Partisan Composition Table here, independents were ignored (there are only a few).

 

[AlteredBeast]

Personally, I love the way Nebraska handles many of its races, to be non-partisan. I wish more states would switch over to the system.

 

[bozeman]

Good on Montana news organizations for rescinding their endorsements. If this asshat still wins, it will be a shame upon the people of Montana like the stink that hangs over those who dig their heels in for Trump, even when he is actively trying to screw them over.

I know it's been said before in this thread and will probably need to be said a bunch more times, but please remember that Montana has very loose early voting laws. I'd guess that at least 1/3 of the vote was already cast long before the events of the past 8 hours.

To give context, I had my 2016 ballot filled out and returned to my local election office a week before the first Presidential debate. If people have decided and taken advantage of the loose absentee rules here, they usually get it done so they can tune out all the election stuff early.

 

[AlteredBeast]

I know it's been said before in this thread and will probably need to be said a bunch more times, but please remember that Montana has very loose early voting laws. I'd guess that at least 1/3 of the vote was already cast long before the events of the past 8 hours.

To give context, I had my 2016 ballot filled out and returned to my local election office a week before the first Presidential debate. If people have decided and taken advantage of the loose absentee rules here, they usually get it done so they can tune out all the election stuff early.

Holy shit, that is terrible in practice for this exact reason. I suppose there is no way to rescind an early vote, either, is there?

 

[Chris R]

Holy shit, that is terrible in practice for this exact reason. I suppose there is no way to rescind an early vote, either, is there?

Terrible practice? You want to make it harder for people to be able to vote?

 

[Cuburt]

Holy shit, that is terrible in practice for this exact reason. I suppose there is no way to rescind an early vote, either, is there?

In the Billings Gazette article of them pulling their endorsement, they say Montana is one of the few states that don't have that option.

To those who have voted: Unfortunately, Montana does not allow those who voted early to reconsider and vote again. We're one of the few states that does not. This would seem to be the best reason we should urge our state leaders to change that law.